Would Obama's Victory Hurt Obama?

If Sen. Barack Obama wins the presidential election, will that victory undermine his political future?

What a stupid question, you might be thinking. I can't believe I even clicked on the headline. This kind of bizarro logic, however, is percolating in the political media. The cable shows have been talking about how a Democratic sweep could ultimately hurt the Democratic Party. "Democrats See Risk and Reward if Party Sweeps" blared a recent New York Times headline. OpenLeft Blogger Chris Bowers slices through this madness in a post Wednesday:

Look, the raison d'etre of electorally focused political party is to win as many elections as possible. To argue that winning more seats is somehow a negative for any political party is exactly as stupid as arguing that it is bad for a sports team to win a championship. To even attempt an argument that winning an election is bad for a party is to enter the final level of concern troll mastery...

Speculative punditry is riddled with concern troll ticks, of course. Some editors and producers also like the "man-bites-dog" quality of these stories.

On a personal note, I'll never forget when I was invited on CNBC to debate whether Obama would be weakened by winning another primary. I am not exaggerating -- the segment was titled "Mississippi: Will Win Weaken Obama?" I pointed out that winning primaries was the point of these campaigns.

Yet, as everyone prematurely obsesses over a massive Democratic sweep -- which has not happened yet and may not happen -- we'll hear even more contrarian craziness. But, for the record, here's one safe prediction: The winner of this election will not be hurt by his victory.

--
Ari Melber is covering the Obama campaign for The Washington Independent, blogging from the road here and Twittering here.

Comments

[Michale32086]

It seems that my statements yesterday over at chris weigant dot com were somewhat prophetic..

I made the claim that Democrats, with all their euphoria, have set the expectations bar so high, it will be impossible to live up to.

And today, we see the Obama campaign trying to trample down the expectations.

Sometimes I really HATE being right all the time. :D

Michale.....

[LeftRight]

When are you going to start being right all the time?

[Krikkit]

Ari, these concerns aren't as contrarian as you suppose. Obama has enormous tasks to accomplish. The GOP may be facing an internal civil war over their potential loss of power, but that does not mean they will take defeat lightly. You can bet they are already laying the groundwork to take back control of the House and Senate in the 2010 mid term elections. If Obama fails to deliver in the next two years we could very well see an enormous backlash. Two years, not four and not eight. Republicans will be out there goading the public about Obama's promises, you betcha.

The Democrat's' best bet is to work diligently with Obama in both houses for those short two years to get the economy and the middle class on a firmer footing. But the enormity of those two tasks alone boggles my mind and let us not forget that Afghanistan is about to explode and Iraq has not yet been settled. Obama's testing has yet to begin. I personally believe that he is up for the task, but I have less faith in the House and Senate due to the constraints under which they must operate. The question is will two years be enough time?

If the Republicans can gain back just a few seats in the mid terms they can obstruct further efforts very effectively and then blame the lack of progress on the Democrat controlled legislature. That's their path back to power in 2012.

[Michale32086]

}}}}
If the Republicans can gain back just a few seats in the mid terms they can obstruct further efforts very effectively and then blame the lack of progress on the Democrat controlled legislature. That's their path back to power in 2012.
{{{{

Which sounds EXACTLY what the Democrat's game plan has been following their defeat in 2004...

Ironic, iddn't it??

Michale.....

[LeftRight]

Except for the whole thing about being obstructionist...... The Democrats have been bending over backwards, wrongly in my opinion!

[learnsomething]

It will take longer than four years for the Dem's to clean up this mess. So please expect that, and don't expect Obama to clean up this mess in 4 years.

[dizmo4]

All of this talk about victory or if a democratic sweep could potentially be bad for the democrats, etc, is VERY PREMATURE.

No one has won anything yet. If people get over confident, go to the polls on Nov 4 see a long line, figure "obama's got this thing, i don't want to stand in line" so they leave. THe problem is enough people are thinking the same thing that when polls close on NOv 4, MCCain gets just enough to win the Presidency.

Don't take ANYTHING for granted. Don't want to stand in lines? Vote early. Get everyone you know to vote early.

[calluna]

The argument is inarticulately stated, I'll grant you, but there is an element of truth to it. Obama the Campaigner is great, but we don't actually know if Obama the President will be. He might be. He might not be. Time will tell. But high-flown rhetoric about hope and change isn't going to matter much in 2012 if our economy remains in the crapper or if health care remain a theoretical right. It's the risk you run when you set the bar high.

[Michale32086]

It's rather ironic..

Throughout the reign of the Right with total control, the Left would be hysterically screaming about "CHECKS AND BALANCES" and how having one party is COMPLETE control is "HORRIBLE FOR THIS COUNTRY".

Now, that we stand on the precipice of that EXACT scenario, except for the Democratic Party, all of the sudden, those same voices are not screaming hysterically, they are crowing in glee..

How is this not hypocrisy???

I am beginning to come to the conclusion that everything ABOUT politics, whether from the Republicans or the Democrats is nothing BUT hypocrisy, writ large...

Michale.....

[tuttlemsm]

'Throughout the reign of the Right with total control, the Left would be hysterically screaming about "CHECKS AND BALANCES" and how having one party is COMPLETE control is "HORRIBLE FOR THIS COUNTRY".'

Tell you what. I promise that after the Democrats have had the White House and both houses of Congress for exactly six years, I will start entertaining thoughts on the attractions of "split government" again.

Until then, we need the Democrats to be in charge to undue the extremism six years of GOP rule have entailed, and to restore... you know... balance.

[Michale32086]

It's beginning to look like we're not going to have much of a choice about it.. :D

I am simply pointing out the hypocrisy, as I am wont to do..

Michale.....

[fmmcfarren]

I worry that the right will capitalize on an Obama presidency and do worse than they did to Clinton. It is stunning that the very architects of Bush have failed so completely and at every turn. No one seems to be asking, are they playing the left.

The clean up for the mess of the last 8 years will start with the next president but won't be felt for years. The first thing that Obama will have to do is make LOTS of hard and unpopular choices. You can bet the vultures will be waiting. They are already prepping Palin for 2012.

They have spent the last 40 years destroying this country bit by bit. 4 years is nothing to them. Pardon the metaphor but they are going to give the Dems enough rope to hang.
By letting Obama win, they "prove" the system works. He starts the clean up, makes the hard choices, then in 4 years, they bring their A game back and catch everyone off guard. I know Obama isn't stupid, but he is inherently good, he has morals and values and honor. They don't and that makes them more dangerous.
It took FDR 3 terms to get things done, we have 1, 2 if we are really lucky.
Fukuyama endorsing Obama, they flashed their hand.

I hope I am wrong.

[XME]

If there is a Democratic "sweep", Obama will have to govern near the center and not allow the Dems in Congress and the Senate get whatever they want passed. Otherwise, his presidency WILL be viewed as a failure and negatively...and he probably wouldn't get a second term. But, I'm one of those people that thinks "left of center" is better than far left (and certainly better than far right).

[LeftRight]

Considering how bad we are doing right now, economically, the ONLY thing that will solve our problems is a new New Deal, which means that the Democrats will be able to get plenty passed, and they will be well liked for it, because they will be fixing the problems. I'm sure that they'll be fine!

[XME]

Yes, but he'll just have to keep them from going overboard where it's not necessary, because that would hurt him and Dems in the long run...just like the Repubs are in the toilet now for going WAY overboard.

[learnsomething]

XME..I don't agree with you.

My take is, If there is a Dem Congress and and Dem Pres, they can get a lot of work done, a lot passed, and therefore clean up this mess left by the Repubs.

[XME]

Sure they can get a lot passed...that's not what I'm saying. I just mean that they can't go all "far left" and do EVERYTHING they want to do. He will have to reign in some of what they try to get him to sign because if the congress has 60 seats, I can see them going nuts and trying to pass all kinds of "giveaways" and needless stuff that they simply want, but that isn't necessary. He needs to keep them focused on things that help to improve our economy (infrastructure building, and other job creating spending), help our environment AND our economy by creating jobs, get out consitution back to where it should be (i.e. close Gitmo), improves education, etc., but keep them in check on other things where there's spending but that doesn't really do us any good, and only puts the country further in debt.

[paragrafH]

Lest we forget, the Dem congress in the early nineties was a casebook example of absolute power corrupting absolutely. Now I have confidence that Obama's personal ethics will filter through his conduct of government, but K St. is still very much there and there are many different kinds of Dems who will see their options differently.

[Freesia2]

I worry that I will be mortally wounded if he doesn't win.

Mr. Melber - how do you stand it? As a private citizen I thought my mind was spinning like a top from the thought that he might lose. Now you tell me, that they tell you, that I should worry that he might win??

This is why God created Pepto-Bismol and Tums.