Announcing HuffPost's Polling Project: Putting Polling Under a Microscope

The impact of polls and polling on our political process continues to be one of the unexplored stories of the 2008 race.

Take the remarkable gap -- chasm, really -- between the widening lead national polls continue to anoint Hillary Clinton with and the current dead heat in Iowa and New Hampshire.

It's enough to leave one wondering: are polls measuring the 2008 election or are they driving it?

But it's a question traditional media outlets steadfastly refuse to investigate - perhaps they've grown too accustomed to the ease of offering up the latest "who's leading the horserace?" story. Indeed, quoting polling data as news has become synonymous with reporting at many news organizations.

So HuffPost's OffTheBus team has decided to turn the tables by launching a wide-ranging effort to scrutinize an industry devoted to scrutinizing us. We're calling this survey of the pervasiveness and impact of polling "The Polling Project." And we'll need your help (more on this in a bit).

Our aim is simple: to get a better understanding of how polling is being used across the country. We want to get to the bottom of how pollsters conduct their surveys, how they gather and build their stats, how they target who they contact, and, ultimately, how they reach their conclusions -- conclusions that often fuel the very races they are supposed to be analyzing.

We are launching this non-partisan effort to examine the polling industry with a wide variety of co-sponsors reaching across the political spectrum, including: Talking Points Memo, Instapundit, Politico, The Center for Independent Media, The Nation, Pajamas Media, Mother Jones, WNYC Radio, My Silver State, and Personal Democracy Forum.

Our methods are simple and direct, and stress transparency - the key ingredient missing from a lot of polling data. With the help of our co-sponsors we are looking to ask as many people as we can reach to share their polling experiences via this form, telling us exactly how they have been polled. Who called them? At what time? Did they agree to participate in the poll or refuse to (one of the least transparent aspects of polling continues to be the refusal of most polling companies to release response rates, which have plummeted in recent years to around 30 percent)? What questions were they asked? Did the questions seem fair or were they worded in a way that seemed loaded? Did they feel like they were being targeted because of their age, gender, or ethnicity? Did the pollster seem to be guiding them toward a predetermined answer?

We'll also want to know: How do the questions being asked of voters in Iowa differ from those in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina? Are African-Americans and Latinos being asked different questions than white voters? How about women?

As the responses come in, we will compile and analyze the data, looking for patterns and trends. We think the result will be a clearer picture of the different kinds of polls specific groups, campaigns, and media organizations are conducting, and a greater understanding of how and why they are being used.

For too long, the polling industry has had the luxury of operating largely under-the-radar. The Polling Project aims to move polling from under-the-radar to under the microscope.

But for this to happen, we need as many people to take part as possible. So if a pollster has recently contacted you, please fill out the form. And forward the form or this post to as many people as you can. The more people we can gather information from, the more complete will be our understanding of this vital aspect of our political culture.

Even if you haven't been contacted by a pollster yet, keep the Polling Project form handy. We intend this to be an ongoing project, leading up to the Iowa caucuses and the primary in New Hampshire, and beyond.

Today's politicians have become pathologically addicted to the short-term buzz of a bump in the polls. And the media are equally obsessed. This creates a vicious cycle: Polls are taken, the results are offered up as news, news that is then brandished by campaigns and fundraisers to convince donors that trailing candidates are DOA. This leads to more money and more endorsements, fewer resources left over for rival candidates, more positive results from the pollsters, and so on, and so on, and so on.

Here's your chance to add some light to all the poll-generated heat. Fill out the form -- and send it to friends.

And we promise the Polling Project will never call you during dinner, or ask if you'd be more or less likely to take part if you knew we'd converted to Mormonism or adopted a brown baby.

Comments

[ButterflyWeed]

We're wanting more from Linda Hansen, our lady who chops off the hanging chads and gives voice to our opinions. Is she on the bus with this project?

[JackShepard4President]

Papa Jack shepard says see "You Tube"
All the candidates all really saying the same things. No matter who wins it is a continuation of decades of Middle East Foreign Policy that has created the war of terrorism, 9/11 Commission Report on Page 147. "Until we have justice for all we will never have peace." As a Veteran American Service officer with over a quarter of a century of experience in the Middle East and Europe I see the injustices that make people become terrorists and even suicide bombers. I see it in their eyes; they see no chance of equality for all or justice. Very sadly where there is no justice or fairness for all there is no hope of peace.

As we all have seen in the last decade the fact that many people from the Arab world feel their is no fair justice and is no chance of ever be treated with fair bias and justice.

I, give residents of New Hampshire a way of standing up and being counted as we do not like our one sided biased Middle East Policy. A vote for me, Jack Shepard is away for the independent peace loving residences of New Hampshire to just make a statement of disapprove of our American Middle East Policies. If you vote for Jack Shepard you will be standing up and be counted. In all reality I, Jack Shepard have no chance of getting elected President.

To protest our Middle East policies, vote for me stand up. By placing my name , Jack Shepard on the presidential primary ballot I give you, the residents I of New Hampshire for the first time in history a way of a Protest vote which will be counted.

This way the media will can count your protest votes.. A vote for Jack Shepard is a protest vote against injustice and the bias seen in wars in the Middle East that must be stopped immediately if we are going to give our s children a future free from hatred and darkness

[Bernique]

The only poll I get solicited for, and one that I sometimes respond to, is from Zogby, one of them, and it always end its poll by wanting to know "how much I make".

So I'm not sure it's legit.

[iVote2]

Thank you, thank you. I have long been hoping someone would explore this issue. That said, I think HuffPo is missing an important piece of the puzzle by not getting demographic info from those of us who do not get polled because we have caller i.d. and do not answer calls originating from phone numbers or companies we do not know. I'm certainly NOT going to answer unknown calls on the off chance it might be a pollster. With caller i.d. I think a pretty big chunk of people are self-selecting out of the process altogether; maybe I'm wrong but we'll never know unless you gather that info, too.

[ccurry]

There is no doubt Arianna, that you will affirm what you already know...polling is driving the election to date....

The question remains...are the voters going to be compliant passengers?

[luckismine]

This sounds like that clown article written by your Off-the-Bus woman, Linda Hansen. Is she behind the poll? If so, I'd love for her to speak about polling and Southern politics to a group of students here in Washington. How can we contact her?

Laura

[Witchitalineman]

I think it's good that you are doing this. What this "media hype" does is get into the pscyhe of potential voters. Sometimes it discourages people from voting cause they "what's the use of my voting" if so and so is going to already win. Good for you.

[union79]

Great project.

I have become so concerned about the poll figures we hear blasted across the airways, in the press and online that I rarely pay attention to them except to ask my self the question of their sponsorship and what agenda they are driving.

I have caller ID and don't answer call numbers I don't recognize ~ until this morning. Now I will ~ the time required to be part of your project is worth it.

Good luck and I hope you will shed some light that will help make changes to an important but highly manipulative process.

[LynneBH]

This is a great idea, and I especially hope to hear more from Linda Hansen on this topic! I have been delighted to read her previous blogs on this forum identifying some of the problems with polling she has experienced personally. She has a unique (and tartly funny) perspective on this topic. Those of us who are already fans of her work immediately recognize this project as her brainchild and--given the depth and flavor of her work for HuffPo in the past--can't WAIT for more!

[starrianna]

I just got a call at home ON THANKSGIVING from some bitch at a GOP call center saying:

"Don't you think it's just WRONG that Americans are ALLOWED to buy medicine made in other countries like China and Canada?"

I was, like, "Huh?"

She said:

"I agree, it is a tough one! We want your opinion. Shouldn't it be ILLEGAL to buy medications from another country besides the U.S.A.?"

I was so shocked, and pissed off, that I didn't even want to help her ass. So I played Dumb Republican, saying "Gosh I don't know!"

She said "Happy Thanksgiving!" and I hung up, thinking that I will never vote GOP again.

(R) stands for (R) REMOVE
from now on for me.

No Good Corrupt Motherf(*#ers
and they hate kids now too!

(R) REMOVE

[swkidder]

This is a great idea - and I'm certain that you will uncover some of the ways in which the polls are driving the electoral process & results - sometimes intentionally and sometimes unconsciously. Now how do you get the results of this project through the mainstream media filter?

[TrueBlueMajority]

I have never been contacted for a telephone poll for a political candidate. I do get the internet Zogby polls and always answer the political ones despite their poorly worded/slanted/transparent questions. I used to get television polls frequently but I turned 50 this year and as a result have dropped out of the desirable TV demographic. In 1999 I was contacted for an Arbitron survey and filled out the diary faithfully, but no political pollster has ever contacted me.

I don't think the national polls mean anything at this point, and Massachusetts is not really seen as being in play so there's little point in polling here. Even though I think we will be part of Tsunami Tuesday in 2008, even though one of the R frontrunners used to be our governor, even though our current govenor is supporting Obama, no one is paying any attention to Massachusetts voters. So I haven't been polled and don't expect to be polled.

[promoguy]

I'm glad to see that you intend to continue these pieces. I have enjoyed the three that Linda Hansen has written in the past:

Poll Dancing... (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/linda-hansen/poll-dancing-questions_b_64360.html)
Public Opinion Surveys and Pollcats... (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/linda-hansen/public-opinion-surveys-an_b_65100.html)
...Straw Poll: Dancing in Dixie with the Devout (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/linda-hansen/palmeto-family-councils-_b_66022.html)

As a fellow South Carolinian, I particularly enjoy Ms. Hansen's take on politics, and I certainly hope she will continue with these pieces.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

[Ono4Hoopono]

In regards to your polls study, which is another incredible HuffPo idea, I put this out there for your consideration as one statistic to analyze.

John Ridley puts national approval of the Democratically controlled congress at 23% in this piece:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-ridley/2008-the-year-of-the-cha_b_73510.html

Such a number seems meaningless without context.

A question worth asking about this statistic is, "What effect does the fact that roughly half the nation is Republican have on this statistic?"

I'm concerned that this is the most abused statistic we have going at the moment. It is being misused all the time by anybody and everybody with an agenda to make the democrats seem even less effective than perhaps they deserve, given their limitations. Newscasters and pundits toss this off all the time, as if to equalize the parties so they appear "fair and balanced."

Wouldn't it be more meaningful to find out what democrats think of congress as compared to what republicans think, or even what democrats think of democrats and what republicans think of republicans?...and break it down similarly for independents?

Thanks. This study and education program about how polls and statistics can be misused is sorely needed in order for us to have an informed electorate. How about study and education program on rhetoric and propaganda techniques as well? Perhaps even a contest to get people talking about what techniques are being used where.

[EspressoAtNoon]

Good idea Arianna! It's my guess this is one of the most overlooked corrupting factors in our "democracy".