On Friday morning, I'll be taking part in that annual rite of passage -- the commencement speech. I'll be delivering mine at Sarah Lawrence, one of the great colleges in America.
My speech, of course, will be imbued with all the optimism and hope about the future that the occasion is steeped in. But, after looking at all the data, there is no question that "commencement" has taken on an ironic twist.
For many of the graduates spilling into the job market throughout the nation, there isn't going to be much to commence. Economically at least, this is an especially rough time to be graduating from college.
For starters, just getting to Graduation Day has become historically burdensome. For the first time, total outstanding student loan debt will be higher than total credit card debt -- going over $1 trillion. In 2000, the figure was under $200 billion.
In 2008, two-thirds of those getting their bachelor's degree had to go into debt to do so, compared to only half in 1993. And as of 2011, Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of the websites FinAid.org and Fastweb.com, estimates that the average graduate will enter the job market with a debt load of over $27,000.
This actually isn't all that surprising, given the skyrocketing cost of tuition, which has been going up at an annual rate of 5 percent. According to a briefing paper by the Economic Policy Institute, in 2008-2009, the total cost of attending college on-campus was over $18,000 for those going to a public school, and over $38,000 for those at a private school. When you consider that over the same period the median household income in the U.S. was $49,777, it's not hard to see why even a public college is out of reach for so many American families, at least without going deeply into debt.
And the job market won't be doing the Class of 2011 any favors in helping to repay that debt. According to EPI, the unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 in 2010 was 18.4 percent, the highest it's been since the number has been tracked, going back 60 years. From April of last year until March of this year, the unemployment rate for recent college graduates hovered around 9.7 percent. In 2007, it was just over 5 percent. And while the fact that we're still clawing our way out of a recession affects those figures, at roughly the same point in the last two recessions -- 1992 and 2003 -- the unemployment rate for new grads was 6.9 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.
As is the case with the overall unemployment rate, the jobs crisis isn't affecting all graduates equally. In 2007 the unemployment rate for recent white college grads was just over 5 percent, 6.6 percent for Hispanic grads and around 13 percent for black grads. By last year, those differences had grown alarmingly worse. For white grads, the unemployment rate went up 3.3 percent, for Hispanic grads it was up 7.2 percent, and for black graduates it was up 5.9 percent -- for a total black grad unemployment rate of a devastating 19 percent.
For those graduates who do manage to find jobs, their average salary will be $36,866. In 2009 it was $46,500. Unfortunately, given the obsessive focus on the deficit gripping Washington, an emphasis on job creation is unlikely any time soon.
At some point, we can hope, the recession is going to be over, and then all these recent graduates will get back on track, right? Actually, no. Abigail Wozniak, an economist at Notre Dame, found that the effects of graduating into an economic downturn far outlast the downturn itself -- sometimes as long as a decade. "A bad hand at the beginning of a game where everything is connected has lasting negative effects," says Wozniak.
And according to Carl Van Horn, of the Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers, the effects of graduating into a recession go beyond dollars and cents. "They tend to be less risk-oriented," Van Horn said of recession-era grads. "They're risk-averse. If you can get that job in communications, then you're less likely to look over your shoulder and say maybe there's a better job down the road. You say, well, I better stick with this one."
There is, however, a silver lining to graduating in such tough economic times. Conventional wisdom says that today's graduates are going to be less likely to take chances, less likely to pass up the safe bird in the hand, but, in fact, there is now a higher premium on taking risks and following your dreams, creating your job instead of just looking for one.
The road ahead is definitely rockier than the Class of 2011 imagined it would be. But while this may be the most debt-burdened graduating class in history, it's also the most tech-savvy, the most connected, and the most engaged.
This year's graduates need to embrace this, and build on it, looking for innovative ways to do well for themselves while doing good for others. And, while they're at it, they should use these attributes to help hold our leaders accountable, and keep them from turning away from the mess they've made -- with so many missed opportunities and perverted priorities.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story referenced a study that said 85% of college graduates are returning home to live with their parents. That statistic was picked up by reports in Time Magazine and subsequently in HuffPost. PolitiFact debunked the widely cited number. A Pew study in December 2011 found that "39% of all adults ages 18 to 34 say they either live with their parents now or moved back in temporarily in recent years," including 53% of those 18 to 24. While educational status didn't appear to impact living status for those under 30, it did make a big impact after that age. All of this is far better than the purported 85% of college grads returning home, but these number aren't exactly low. A sobering statistic from Pew: one-in-ten college educated adults between the ages of 30 and 34 are living at home.
Colleges have become big businesses with no concern for the students. Students now face 5 - 8 years of school to get a 4 year degree. The required classes are hard to get into and are rarely offered. In the meantime they have to take filler classes to maintain their status as full time students and hold on to their grants and loans. The school rake in the dollars and the students rack up huge debts. I wonder if the time would have been better spent taking classes and working to gain experience. 8 years seniority goes a long way to better pay and without the college loans to pay back.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qF2_R3v8bkU
Luck isn't what they need, hard work and a degree that matters is what they need.
If you graduate with a worthless degree like so many do these days, you'll need luck.
The economy is CYCLIC--Econ 101. Every so often a couple of classes end up in tough times. I can remember deep recessions of 1972, 1978, 1981, 1984, and 2008 to name a few. Ride it out. Take whatever job you can get and sooner or later the economy perks up again. You'll have the advantage of having proven you can get and hold a job.
A nickel for you
The stimulus created more jobs than the entire economy did during 2001-2008.
we'd be over 11% unemployment without it.
republicans in the senate filibustered every other jobs bill the democrats wanted to pass.
Believe in yourself. Take risks, work hard and be determined to make a contribution to society. You will be compensated for it.
That is, unless the Democrats control our government much longer.
If you don't believe in yourself, if you are unwilling to work hard and if you are more concerned with taking than producing, then by all means you should vote for Democrats. They will recreate America into a place that failure is rewarded, and you will get more for doing less, or nothing.
However, I believe in you! You are a new generation that is willing to work, to produce and to innovate. You deserve the freedom to give America your best, and the ability to be rewarded for your contribution.
If we let the Democrats turn the country further to the left we will go down the road to greater government control, bigger and more powerful government, more government employees, higher taxes, less private sector jobs and more dependence, less individual responsibility, rewards for failure and punishment for successes.
AND more debt that YOU will have to pay.
If we turn right, we will see a growing private sector, individual responsibility, American ingenuity, innovation, hard work and a meritocracy. In the economy, taxes would be drastically reduced, controls and regulations on small businesses would be drastically limited, and human energy, enterprise, and markets set free to create and produce in exchanges that would benefit everyone and the mass of consumers.
Vote Conservative for America.
Unless, of course, you emigrate. Let's update that avuncular little dialogue between Mr McGuire and Dustin Hoffman to read:
Mr. McGuire: I just want to say two words to you. Just two words.
Benjamin: Yes, sir.
Mr. McGuire: Are you listening?
Benjamin: Yes, I am.
Mr. McGuire: Foreign languages.
Benjamin: Exactly how do you mean?
Exactly what does he mean? I'll spell it out for you: when the time comes, the following will be your tickets to success:
1. Fluency in a foreign language (and culture).
2. A degree in engineering, medicine, business, or other in-demand specialism.
3. Being younger than thirty.
4. One airline ticket to just about anywhere outside of the USA.
http://www.bleachedblonde.net
... vote for third-party and/or independent candidates at every opportunity. I recommend the Libertarian Party's candidates, but you may prefer different third-party or independent candidates. the main thing is to find non-major--party candidates whose political platforms are palatable to you and consistently vote the for them.
For students thinking about college...don't do it! Parents...think TWICE before spending your last dime on your kid's education! BUT, IF you're not convinced...you really should watch this new documentary that came out on May 15th, 2011:
http://www.youtube.com/user/InflationUS
There was a really good book written a few years ago entitled "Do What You Love The Money Will Follow" and I think that's great advice. Enter college enrolled in the major which you really love, work hard at getting good grades (instead of drinking yourself into oblivion every weekend) and be willing to WORK in your field.
Obama amazingly believes he will get that student grassroots movement to aid him for his 2012 run but they won't be there. Those students don't have jobs thanks to Obama's incompetence and they won't forgive his breaking the promise to do something about oppressive student loans.