Microtrends vs Macrotrends: Why Obama is Winning

CHICAGO -- Should Barack Obama end up winning his party's nomination, he will give his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver on August 28 -- 45 years to the day Martin Luther King delivered his "I Have a Dream" speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial.

If this moment happens, it will be because of what Sir Martin Sorrell (CEO of the conglomerate WPP, which includes among its many companies Mark Penn's Burson-Marsteller) said. "Mark Penn," he told me the other night in Los Angeles, "literally wrote the book on microtrends, but this election is about a macrotrend."

Penn and the Clintons set about slicing up the electorate into the "small forces behind tomorrow's big changes" that Penn described in his 2007 book Microtrends. They then devised policies and personas to try to appeal to each one -- only to watch dumbfounded as their microtrend sandcastles were washed away by the macrotrend tidal wave of the Obama campaign.

"Hillary Clinton's campaign model," David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist told me this morning in Chicago, "is a very tired Washington model: 'I'll do these things for you.' Barack's model is 'Let's do these things together.' This has been the premise of Barack's politics all his life, going back to his days as a community organizer. He has really lived and breathed it, which is why it comes across so authentically.

"Of course, the time also has to be right for the man and the moment to come together. And, after all the country has been through over the last seven years, the times are definitely right for the message that the only way to get real change is to activate the American people to demand it."

The microtrend vs macrotrend dynamic reminds me of Isaiah Berlin's division of mankind into hedgehogs and foxes. He took his imagery from a line in an ancient Greek poem by Archilochus: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing."

According to Berlin, the fox will "pursue many ends, often unrelated and even contradictory, connected, if at all, only in some de facto way." This stands in sharp contrast to the hedgehog's "all embracing...unitary inner vision."

Based on the way the '08 campaign has played out, Democratic voters are showing signs of deep fox fatigue -- sick and tired of foxy triangulating, foxy slicing-and-dicing of the message, and foxy shifts in presentation. Voters want real change -- not daily changes in approach and messaging.

It's too early to sign the death certificate, but should the Clinton campaign end up in need of an epitaph, it won't need to look further than Penn's book. "Small is the new big," he wrote. "Many of the biggest movements in America today are small."

Except when they are very big, and getting bigger by the day. And you've missed them.

Follow Arianna Huffington on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ariannahuff

Comments

[ACunningham]

I just returned from a local bookstore where I took a good bit of time to look at Penn's book. What a Moron to outline his action for Obama's Axelrod to work against. And, this woman wants to rule the world? Methinks NOT!

.

[Tankan]

Hillary Clinton is afraid of change, old dogs can't handle new tricks!

She yearns for the past as the aged yearn for the days of their youth!

Days that are gone and returning no more!

[BardEric]

Wow, THAT was profound......Thanks for clearing that up.

[alchemymom]

Tankan, with all due respect, you don't make youth seem all that attractive. Nor do so many unintelligent-sounding youth posting drivel all over Obamington Post. I'll keep my 53 years, extremely successful company I built with my husband, 7 oceanfront acres in Kauai, and my critical thinking skills, thank you. You may keep your illusions. You would be surprised how many people would NOT like to return to the days of their youth, the time of some of the stupidest decisions they've ever made. But, then, you will learn this one day, too.

What an idiotic reason to support or not support a candidate.

[liveandlearn]

a brief comparative checklist of senatorial votes:

issue clinton obama mccain best choice

confirm condi rice y y y n

tort reform n y y n

cap credit card y n n y
interest rate
at 30%

energy bill n y n n

confirm roberts n n y n

confirm alito n n y n

kyl-lieberman y not voting not voting n

iraq withdrawal timetable y y n y

[The5thW]

The macrotrend is New York fatigue. The candidate of Fox was Guiliani. Does that tell you anything? Then the they had the tin ear to float unasked for Bloomberg. Hillary was doomed with an albatross constituency. New York is the only place that still has this egomaniacle denial that the people are sick of the overreach, the decadence, the greed, the disloyalty, the corruption, the arrogance of this tiny minority cynically shoving their war and their paranoia and their financial manipulations down the throats of the rest of the country. The people have an inherent sense of proportion. The thing we didn't expect was an urbane, brilliant alternative to get us back in sync with the pendulum of history. Hillary is not a bad person, but demographics dictated her foreign policy, and local politics trumped the national interest. HER ONLY CHILD WORKS FOR A HEDGE FUND, for chrissake.

[Italymario]

Obama’s Apocalypse or Historic Landslide Victory?

1- Obama will lose Hispanic independent voters and moderate Hispanic democrats to McCain. He can get them back by putting Bill Richardson on the ticket………But that would turn away white voters. He can’t pick Clinton for obvious reasons….Risky! There is tension between Hispanics and blacks who now view Obama as the black candidate……..They want to counteract Obama’s movement so as to be on what ever the other side is….gain favors and assert their importance and influence as a strong minority group!! Obama can however win a third of their votes……..not enough in the general.
2- Obama has built a movement of change but the movement would die slowly as we approach the general. Republicans would keep asking for what he wants to change???? His personal record as a voter has always been along party lines………98% of the time. McCain’s record as a maverick not just talk puts him ahead as the best candidate to unite Washington DC but as the real agent of change. Obama has the talk but would have nothing to back it since his policies are to the far left of the Dems. His record is even so limited questions on experience would matter. Republican attacks on what CHANGE?……would get specific in the media and would require real policy specifics. Not much would come but his eloquent blend of JFK/MLK! That would work for a while until republicans start painting him as just another liberal who is well spoken with and empty cry for change. McCain has a record of change and working across the isle……Obama does not. Over the next few months, reality would set in. His policies and leadership would begin to look like just another democrat yet inexperience and risky for the country at this delicate time in history.
3- Obama’s middle name and last name which rhymes with Osama and Saddam would be used to paint him as a Muslim which is not the best thing now. His dad’s Muslim faith would play a role as his up bringing, Kenyan ties and name would be questioned. The spell checker on my computer corrects Obama to Osama??? Try it! His support and continue worship at his controversial pastor’s church would not go unnoticed. His wife’s comments and writings could hurt him. The Resco trial and land deal could also be a huge venerability.
4- Race would always be a factor in America when some people get into the polling box no matter what their outward expression of support was. The outward feel good feeling about not caring about race could cause a drop in support in key swing states by up to 4%. So we can’t count on the poles.
5- Obama has no plan B if he is striped of his mantra of change. His experience is limited and would be questioned big time………Foreign policy would hurt him and Americans don’t love anything in elections more than a genuine war hero with experience at a time of war, a moderate who works with both parties.
6- Obama will win Texas and close the gap in Ohio due to republican machinery voting for him as their perceived best chance to win the general. He is still the nominee because of the mathematical insurmountable lead he has…..There is pretty much no republican primary in Texas and anyone can vote for either party…. If you have followed all republican talk shows this week, they all call for their party’s faithful to go support Obama in masses……Why not Clinton as the claim to want in the general to unite their base??? This sounds strange given he is doing better in all hypothetical match ups. But they know what would happen when he would come under scrutiny and be made to face reality on his record and what his plans are. Talk is not enough! Republicans realize there is no new material on the Clintons but yet more about McCain can come up and even a library about Obama is still out there. Obama would soon see why 10% of the voters on super Tuesday two where republicans and he won them by over 90%. Same trend has been true in other primaries…..It is not a plus but a fear of the Clintons in the general.
7- Obama is not a good debater in presidential debating format like Clinton or even the old fox McCain. He is good in discussion forum styles like in the last two debates…….Texas and……..Can’t remember (Debates in February 2008). In the general, he would not have time to preach change in debates but only talk on policy which would make him look like an extreme liberal. He would hold his own on health care and the economy but would look inexperience, un-presidential in front of McCain whose experience and moderate votes in the past would end up sealing the deal for him.
8- Obama’s dad from Africa might not be the hurting now but could influence some people when his movement for change is deflated. It could become a small liability which could erode up to 3% of his supporters who would start feeling Made by the USA is better than just born in the USA. The new bad image of fighting in Kenya and the media’s coverage of his extended family there could hurt him. How close is he to them? Has he helped them? Their genes? Their actions? Either way would get attacked.
9- His attacks on President Clinton’s policies and his questioning of if those where good days or even his rating of the Clinton presidency would hurt him. The Clintons would endorse him but might not campaign much for him in the general which would be important. Clinton is a bigger rock star than Obama in the Democratic Party. He had the right to question the Clintons tactics but attacking that era and presidency would make it hard for him to say what period in US economy he plans to bring back…..He would be charged with contradicting himself of select support when it suits him. The Clinton era is one if not the best economic period over the last 50 years.
10- There is too much still unknown about Obama…….how he grew up??? He just seems to have appeared out of no where with an amazing following…People collapsing as his speaks: Is he a rock star or Michael Jackson in the eighties?? He generates excitement to the tune of earning some descriptions as …either “the second coming of Jesus or the Devil!” He might have huge skeletons in his closet! In fact Obama is a risky and untested…….and does not seem ready for a presidential election. It could pay out big for the Dems if he can stay on message and keep his MOVEMENT strong. His quotation for now is bigger that Hillary’s but that does not mean anything because come November he might be left with just democrats and independents who what to change the course of the country and would have voted for Hillary too. But yet, his lack of experience, extreme left policy positions, rhetoric with on evidence in record, color, origin, names, comments by wife, pastor, could end up affecting him more than it would have affected Hillary. That would cost the Dems the elections. Too many unknowns with Obama and his unfavorable can only go up and close to Hillary if dirt comes out. Every dems likeability drops significantly as the republicans paint you in a country split right down the middle…….50-50. I hope I am wrong but it is a gamble which would lead democrats to either a landslide victory or a landslide lose. The popular vote would be close (under +2 M) but the Electoral College votes would be evident before November. There is no middle ground or long wait on election day. We would even know with reasonable certainty the new president before November first unless there in a major tragic even which calls for reevaluation of capitates relevant experiences. Dems hope the economy war in Iraq goes wrong………..While republicans how an attack or renewed major treats come save them with their vented war hero. Yes obama would be the nominee…….Hilary would win Ohio (five points plus). Super delegates would realign their votes to match the popular vote……..delegates. McCain is venerable on the war, lobbyists, congressional scandal, economy, healthcare, direction of country, support of Bush, generation, and age! Obama’s financial war chest, if it continues, seems good enough to shot down any swift voting……….But sometimes money can’t wipe or counteract certain damages or wrong information put out there. Negative ads do work! But just maybe the republicans would not know how to attack the first African American nominee for president without looking bad or even racist. But republicans have time on their side. Eight months is an eternity in politics……..

[cincigal]

You went to a lot of trouble assuming that Obama has already won the nomination.News flash the election is nt over until all the states have voted.No one has won.I know he sounded like he had already been crownrd king of the world when he won the Iowa caucus.but it isnt really true.

[williamg]

I see a trend:

Feb 9
Nebraska - Obama wins by 36%
Louisiana - Obama wins by 21%
Washington - Obama wins by 37%

Feb 10
Maine - Obama wins by 19%

Feb 12
Virginia - Obama wins by 29%
Washington D.C. - Obama wins by 51%
Maryland - Obama wins by 23%

Feb 19
Hawaii - Obama wins by 52%
Wisconsin - Obama wins by 17%

[pigsatthetrough]

Adding slightly to your insight is the matter of hope. Something that Hillary has not got quite right and the Republicans have totally wrong. The hope that Obama is providing is that there will be a change. A change away from confrontation, misrepresentation, continual military excursions. A hope that discussion and diplomacy can be undertaken while listening and understanding the needs and desires, not only of our allies but also from others including adversaries. The people no longer think it is enough to hope someday we can leave Iraq. That someday we hope that Iran and others will buckle under our unwittingly wrong military only prowess. The hope that what is said is what is meant, by politicians, judges and goodness, even the press. Obama appears to be able to provide this new hope, and that is being evidenced by the increase in his following. It would appear that his campaign is being managed in such a way as to provide what the people, the electorate, are looking for. Should he win the nomination, and should he be elected Presdent, the ability to carry out necessities to fulfil that hope, will then be a union between the American population and the President. Once again it may truly be the United States of America!

[vsign]

Obama is winning because of Huffington Post and MSM.

I want a new Voters Rights Act where the internet users and MSM (especially MSNBC) cannot control the outcome of our Democratic Party primary and the General Election.

We do not take it seriously enough yet, as voters. I want my vote to count!!

But the seriousness of the media deciding the elections IS Bush - and will most likely be Obama. It is war and economic collapse and the supression of individual freedoms.

The result will be the same, no matter the personality or party.

It will not be our fault because our votes did not count. It will be our fault because we think a different new personality will, can change it. Obama even made this argument openly - that Hillary's "baggage" would prevent her from winning. He has tried to play poker with Democratic Party voters - telling us he has a better hand because little is known about him and he can suppress the rest.

Then the MSM commentary after Iowa sealed the deal with Obama - the videos of the old people surrounding Hillary's 3rd place win contrasted with the enthusiastic young surrounding Obama. The narrative has not changed since. How easy the MSM makes it for themselves. Great reality show. Great way to fill 24/7 "news" coverage.

And how lazy.

New winning out over old, regardless of resume or character. What an immature way to select our leader with the red button.

We need a new Voting Rights Act.

[N8tracks]

You said "Then the MSM commentary after Iowa sealed the deal with Obama - the videos of the old people surrounding Hillary's 3rd place win contrasted with the enthusiastic young surrounding Obama."

As if the media selected who attended who's rally. She's 60 and she ran a lousy campaign. The only thing keeper her alive is the fact that many women keep voting for her because she's a woman. If you take out the "real" sexism she would lose by even larger margins.

[guatemalatimes]

Arianna

The so called "liberal media" in the USA is missing the big picture. The right wing media is doing the same they always do.
I am a liberal, but a non american one. I see you from the outside world. I can see clearly that the liberal media has lost it´s perspective, that happens every time when the media in the US gets too exited.
Examples: OJ Simpson, Monica Lewinsky - Bill Clinton, 9/11, The Irak war, etc.
A star is born, a star is disrgraced, or a star has fallen....
Everybody gets crazy and looses all sense of proportion.

We, the rest of the world, we are affected by american politics. You have to remember that.
We, the rest of the world look at you and see the same pattern over and over again.
Media gets overexited, media goes overtime on a subject, media loses perspective, media srews up................. country srews up.

Get a hold of yourselves, grow up, think, then think again. This is not a rock concert, this the most important election in America´s recent history. And yes, think more globally, a lot more people besides the americans will be afected by the outcome of this election.
This time you can´t srew it up. Be responsible, be analytical and do get a perspective.

[cincigal]

The most reasonable post I have ever read on this Blog,and naturally,it is written by a foreigner.We as a nation have become a nation of non thinkers.Most just allow themselves to be carried along with the tide without question or thought.They just hope to be inspired.

[Danny]

guatemalatimes -- It does look that way from afar. What has happened, GuatTimes, is that our media has been hijacked by the sensationalist press. It pretends to cover news, but its aim is to distract and misinform, so that all they want us to do is ... SHOP. We long for our serious media to come back and do its job. Unfortunately the robber barons have taken it away in order to impose their models on an overworked electorate that is too exhausted to do anything about it. I myself, have switched off all TV news except for Democracy Now, INN World Report, Bill Moyers, and occasionally Keith Olbermann of MSNBC, the Daily Show and Colbert Report . Even Lehrer and NPR pander to the same propaganda and distracting trends I do not buy a daily paper anymore. I find solace in a few radio programs on Air America and affiliates (except for the odious commercials) -- Thom Hartmann, Ed Schultz, Rachel Maddow, Randi Rhodes, and others (Sam, Stephanie, Lionel) who are bravely covering the progressive side of the campaign. You may think we don't think, but we do. The corrupt media are the ones who are fooled into thinking their pablum is successful. I also don't SHOP any more except for recycled stuff. It's so ... liberating.

[Uselessboy]

They had 2 elections to see the voters trending away from Clintonian campaigning expectations, but they either didn't see the shift or else they're opposed to it and thought they could defeat it.

They lost.

[AnninCA]

I think it's time Obama either wins.......or the press will shame themselves beyond redemption.

So far, the areas he's soundly thrashed her in have been odd caucus states or AA-dominated states.

Here's the real deal.

Tuesday.

Otherwise, shut up. Admit it's a neck-and-neck race. Stop bragging because she can't get the required delegates. Neither can Obama!

And let's hear from everyone.

[N8tracks]

Wisconscin 6% AA? Missouri 11% AA? Connecticut 9% AA? have u forgotten those?

[loocifer]

Open primaries! Enough said.

[worded]

By that logic, no "women-dominated" states should count ...

[plutorage]

The Clinton campaign was based on rerunning the nineties: Americans want incremental, small changes.

That was the case in 92 when Bill was elected but it is not the case after 8 years of Bush Jr.

If Hilary could not see that from her ivory tower on capitol hill, why should we expect her to carry out the people's will?

I just heard this morning on "Best of Hannity" an interview with Daschle, the Obama supporter who was Senate Majority leader before his retirement recently. he said that 30% of our 2 trillion medical care industry is administrative, ie not directly related to giving care, as opposed to 15% in other countries. the difference is 300 million dollars which is basically our entire defence budget when you take Iraq out. We could have defence for free just by having a competitive medical administration system.

That's big not little. We need a macrotrend here, not microtrend. I wont even begin on tax collection and tax equity, a question that is just as big. And how about 40 million people not paying anything at all for health care we all know they will need eventually. Microtrend??? I don't think so.

So what in the world makes people think that Hilary is "ready on day 1" to lead?

All the evidence point to the very opposite.

China is about to build 2500 coal burning utillities. That's not small. That needs a very big solution indeed. The world produces 85 million barrels of oil a day. When the Chinese and Indians consume as much oil per person as we do we will need a daily production of over 500 million barrels daily. That isn't happening so what has to give? Big question.

Obviously theh price of oil will rise so countries will start building more nuclear plants which means nuclear proliferation. Not a microtrend at all.

Do I need to go on??

If people will think just a little, they will understand that Hilary lacks the intellectual capacity to deal with the problems facing our country and they will not vote for her.

[liveandlearn]

pardon me! the idea that hillary lacks the intellectual capacity to deal with the problems facing our country is so wrong! she has the best program out there right now. she understands all aspects of governing. obama voted not to cap credit card rates at 30%. ask him why. go ahead, call his campaign and find out. obama voted for the energy bill because of his nuclear industry ties. nuclear is dangerous, poisonous, and unnecessary if we actually tap our solar and wind capacity (as well as tides and waves). obama voted for tort reform (making it harder than ever for an average american to get justice if federal regulation and corporate greed don't prevent the problem, as they don't for 58,000 people per year who die from those failures.)

call obama's campaign, and ask for a defense of his lesbian/gay stance or even his stance on federal regulation of our food supply and drug purity and effectiveness. ask if he would change the farm bill to allow local organic growers to rent cropland that was planted last year to corn. ASK HIM SUBSTANTIVE QUESTIONS!!!

it is no secret that i prefer hillary. she would be a terrific president, and there would be no slimy republican surprises between the convention and the november election, unlike what undoubtedly awaits obama if he becomes the democratic nominee.

[Balto]

Excellent analysis. Sums up the situation in a nutshell. Maybe you idiots should read it again. You obviously didn't understand it.

Just as a side note., Arianna. You really have arrived when the political operatives spend so much time and energy trying to trash you and your site.

[Citizen54]

"Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!"

[coolkraft]

and this is why he will win...Hillary is a retread pure and simple...old style washington politician...to vote for her because she is a woman is ludicrous...she would not be running if she had not been married to Billy boy