October Surprise Update: What McCain May Be Planning and What Obama Can Do to Ruin It

Political horse-race fans are focusing on Obama's 11-point lead in the new Newsweek poll. But I'm focusing on the 10-point lead McCain has on national security and terrorism -- the only remaining issue voters believe the Republican candidate would be more adept at handling.

As the one arrow left in McCain's quiver-- other than appealing to racists -- national security becomes the likeliest playing field for that GOP fall tradition, the October Surprise.

Last week, desperate to "turn the page" on the economy, the McCain campaign flipped over to the tie-Obama-to-Bill-Ayers section of the scorched earth playbook. It helped unleash some of the darkest demons in the electoral psyche, but it didn't move the needle (except on McCain's unfavorables, which hit a new high).

So what might be the final weeks' bombshell? Here is Tom Brokaw on Meet the Press:

"There are some people in the Obama campaign who believe that there's a concerted effort under way to get Osama bin Laden before Election Day and bring him out of captivity, dead or alive, in some fashion."

They've tried and -- other than on some misprinted ballots in New York -- failed to turn Obama into Osama. (The latest attempt came from the chair of Virginia's Republican Party, who said Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden "both have friends that have bombed the Pentagon" -- a comment McCain refused to disavow, although his campaign already had.)

Of course, capturing Osama just before the election has been an October GOP dream in 2002, 2004, 2006, and now 2008.

But, barring the fulfillment of that dream, it seems all-but-certain that McCain will look for another way to highlight what the Newsweek numbers show is his only remaining strength. So Obama -- and his foreign policy expert Joe Biden -- need to make a concerted effort to neutralize the issue by going directly at McCain's supposed strong suit. Doing so would make the success of an October Surprise far less likely.

The best line of attack would be drawing attention to McCain's actual record. His national security rep in 2008 is as over-inflated as the housing bubble was in 2005.

The McCain Doctrine, if there is such a thing, basically boils down to two core beliefs: 1) you don't sit down and talk with your enemies (and sometimes you don't sit down and talk with your friends, either -- see Spain) 2) the surge was the greatest, most successful strategy ever, and should be exported to Afghanistan.

Obama can make his case on the wrong-headedness of McCain's approach by calling on a persuasive lineup of evidence, including the words of Gen. David Petraeus and Gen. David McKiernan (commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan), and the latest consensus findings of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.

Let's start with Petraeus, who McCain has called an "American hero," and who is also the person he'd most like to have dinner with. Last week, speaking at the neocon -friendly Heritage Foundation, Petraeus basically gave his seal of approval to Obama's stand on negotiating with hostile foreign leaders while undercutting McCain's.

Asked specifically about the disagreement between the two candidates on this issue, which flared up again during the last debate, Petraeus said, "I do think you have to talk to enemies." He pointed out that in Iraq "we sat down with some of those who were shooting at us" -- even some "with our blood on their hands." "This is how you end these kinds of conflicts," he said.

That's precisely the kind of thinking that led Sarah Palin to call Obama "beyond naïve" and "dangerous," and McCain to repeatedly accuse him of not understanding the world. Betcha they won't say the same thing about Petraeus.

Next up, McKiernan and the intelligence agencies:

One of the reasons the public still trusts McCain more than Obama on national security is the media's unquestioned acceptance of the idea that the surge was an unequivocal success and has, as McCain frequently claims, put us "on a path to victory" in Iraq.

Even putting aside the fact that the political reconciliation that was the actual goal of the surge has yet to happen, the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq makes clear that the reduction in violence that is the source of McCain's triumphalism is, as Petraeus has termed the overall situation in Iraq, "fragile" and "reversible."

The top-secret analysis, the conclusions of which were leaked last week, warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian disputes could lead to a renewed outbreak of violence.

What's more, responsibility for one of the main tactics contributing to the security gains of the last year -- the U.S. paying former Sunni insurgents to stop targeting American forces -- has just been turned over to the Shiite-led Iraqi government, leading to fears that many of the 100,000 so-called Sons of Iraq may re-join the insurgency.

Despite all this, McCain continues to point to the surge as proof of his foreign policy acumen -- and, in the last debate, suggested it's the same strategy that is "going to have to be employed in Afghanistan."

Gen. McKiernan doesn't agree. He points to "countless... differences between Iraq and Afghanistan," and concludes: "What I don't think is needed -- the word that I don't use in Afghanistan is the word surge."

McCain obviously hasn't gotten that memo. Nor the one explaining that those still occupying the White House now privately admit that Afghanistan is, as according to Katie Couric, the "single most pressing security threat in the war on terror." McCain and Palin continue to insist the "central front" in the war on terror is Iraq.

All told, McCain's response to our greatest national security crises, Iraq and Afghanistan, has been every bit as erratic, reckless, glib, and clueless as his response to the financial crisis.

If Obama and Biden forcefully drive this point home again and again, should McCain unleash an all-but-certain-to-be-about-national-security October Surprise, it will prove to be no more successful than his pathetic attempt to smear Obama using Bill Ayers.

Comments

[roxe]

jokers

[BillN]

Any October surprise would be just another act of desperation on the McCain campaign's part. No different than all the yard signs they're putting up here in Michigan... on the lawns of abandoned homes whose owners had their mortgages foreclosed on. Republicans will stoop to any low - including exploiting the misfortunes of others - to make their point... unsuccessfully, I might add.

They're done. Good riddance.

[GwenElle]

And barring all of these very intelligent suggestions, the Obama campaign can simply remind the voters that McCain doesn't know the difference between a Sunni and a Shi-ite, unless his *other Joe* (Lieberman) is standing by his side to whisper the right response into his ear. Sure that's the low road; but, as shown on tape, it is also the truth.

[piper1233]

We've had our October Surprise. " Powell endorses Obama"!

[kanester]

Ms. Huffington. Reading your insightful thoughts on a strategic last-minute McCain strategy presented an insight to me (albeit of a slightly different topic) -- I understand what Bush intends his legacy to be. I think since he's realized (or maybe Dana Perino whispered the answer to him) early on that "great" Republican president isn't in the cards for him, maybe he's shooting for "last" Republican president.
OK, now I hope I never have to try to "think" like W again!

[23000Days]

Anyone want to find BinLaden should take a shovel rather than a rocket. He had liver failure years ago, you just dont walk around with that forever.

[jazzman]

Capturing Osama bin Laden would prove that he and Obama are actually two different people, which would cause a brief moment of cognitive dissonance at a Palin/McCain wingnut rally.

[klosskid]

"McCain" and "planning" in the same sentence? Isn't that an oxymoron?

[AlphaDoc]

>Betcha they won't say the same thing about Petraeus.<

No, they'll probably just accuse him of drinking the Obama Kool-Aid. They have no shame.

[Coattails]

Obama and McCain don't condemn everything someone says, we saw that in the latest debate.

With Bin Laden, I want him brought to justice dead or alive for the crimes of mass murder, I would be thrilled, but I wouldn't thank or criticize any party if it happened.

We did just kill the #2 Al-Qaeda in Iraq leader. If we had abandoned all hope in Iraq he would be fighting against American's somewhere, maybe on US soil.

As far as I am concerned, we have not had an attack on US soil in over 7 years. I want to keep it that way.

[CujoInNC]

How many #2 Al-Qaeda leaders in Iraq have we killed or captured so far? Pretty soon there should not be any #3,4,5,...... left. I don't want any attacks on US soil either, but I believe the fact that we haven't had any in the past 7 years is due more to luck than any other factor. Unfortunately, I believe we will see attacks in the future no matter who is elected or whatever precautions are taken.

[mageduley]

No...you just have to show this video. It has McCain's stance on foreign policy in shocking detail. Pat Buchanan even said "McCain will make Cheney look like Ghandi".

Republicans and Military Men on John McCain

Please share with everyone you know. McCain thinks his military history is his strength. We have to make everyone aware that not only is that not true, but our country will be forever harmed if this man becomes president.

[Bitsko]

You lost me at the Tom Brokaw quote, Ms. Huffington.

[bacaja]

Capturing Bin Laden at this point would be meaningless, that old gig is totally
exhausted.

[MGarr]

A shortcut to achieving this goal would be a Powell endorsement, something undecided voters would most clearly understand.

[research]

I have come to Trust Obama.

He knows what he's doing.

Obama will win.