Scary Thought: Is Condi Rice Our Last, Best Chance for Peace?

Here's a scary thought: Condoleezza Rice might be our last, best chance for peace -- or at least for avoiding another disastrous war in the Middle East.

Vice President Dick Cheney is said to be very hot for "hot conflict" with Iran -- to the point of cozying up to al-Qaeda-linked groups in Iran.

As for Bush, who is unfettered by concerns about his political future, he is, according to Bill Kristol, more likely to strike Iran if he thinks Obama is going to win.

John McCain has called war with Iran "a possibility that is maybe closer to reality than we are discussing."

Last month, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said "The Iranian threat must be stopped by all possible means," including "drastic measures" that would be "devastating." And last week, Defense Minister Ehud Barak hinted that Israel was ready to attack, having "proven in the past that we are not deterred from acting when our vital interests are at stake."

For its part, Iran seems intent on puffing out its chest, exaggerating its ability to hit Israel with its Shahab missiles, and delivering the neocon hawks exactly the "see, we told you" evidence they've been longing for.

With all the tumblers for war falling into place, the question becomes: What will Condi do? Will she reprise her pitiful performance as Bush's National Security Adviser during the run up to the war in Iraq? Or will she fulfill the mission of her current office (she is, after all, Secretary of State)?

So far, the signs have not been promising. Following the Iranians' missile test last week, Rice, speaking at a news conference in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, warned: "We will defend our interests and defend our allies. We take very, very strongly our obligations to defend out allies and no one should be confused of that."

This follows a speech in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee last month the New York Times described as "unusually sharp," with Rice "calling any dialogue with [Iran's] leaders pointless." "For the sake of peace," said Rice, "the world must not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons."

But, behind the scenes, Rice has been promoting a far more diplomatic approach to Iran than the Cheney-led hungry-for-war contingent inside the administration. And yesterday's report that Undersecretary of State William Burns will join a scheduled meeting between Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief, and Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, is an indication that Rice's pro-diplomacy camp may have Bush's ear.

Once again on the record, Rice's Foggy Bottom team was quick to point out that that the meeting was a "one-time deal," with Rice telling Solana that Burns would only be going "to listen." Okay, but isn't listening the biggest part of diplomacy?

Rice is trying to have it three different ways: talking tough in a way that will please the neocon crowd while opening the door to negotiations while undercutting the value of that open door. Talking out of three different sides of your mouth is a neat trick for a sideshow performer -- but not for the Secretary of State.

Rice has always had a hard time deciding what role to play in the administration: foreign policy mentor, loyal war saleswoman ("we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud"), truth-challenged apologist (no one "could have predicted" terrorists flying airplanes into buildings before 9/11), full-throated cheerleader ("I'm proud of the decision of this administration to overthrow Saddam Hussein"), or office wife and enabling sycophant (in the wake of an underwhelming pre-war CIA presentation on WMD, Bush asked her about the war: "Should we do this?" "Yes," replied Rice without missing a beat.)

Author James Mann, in his book Rise of the Vulcans, says Rice was a major player in the Iraq debacle:

She had been the prime mover behind the drafting of a new National Security Strategy that laid the framework for a preventive war. She had served as the White House coordinator and as the president's closest adviser, throughout the entire Iraq operation. And she emerged after the war as the principal spokesman for the administration's expansive vision of its mission in the Middle East.

Despite this, she has largely managed to avoid the taint associated with the war's biggest proponents and, at 53, stands as one of the few high-ranking Bush administration officials who continues to have a bright future in politics. If, that is, she is able to salvage something of the present.

So what is it going to be, Madame Secretary?

This time around, it's not going to be enough for Rice to keep her head out of the line of fire. Her lack of effective diplomacy as Secretary of State has been a disaster. And trotting out lines about only listening and not talking at the negotiating table is simply laughable.

If she doesn't want to fall into the same trap as her predecessor Colin Powell -- who now claims he was privately anguished about letting himself be used in the run-up to Iraq but publicly carried Cheney's water (and that vial of fake anthrax) -- she needs to do something dramatic. Either convince the president what a catastrophe attacking Iran would be. Or, failing that, break with the administration and do the noble thing by resigning while it still might make a difference (see Powell, George Tenet, and Scott McClellan for an object lesson in speaking out when it no longer makes a difference).

Condi Rice has frequently been called the "most powerful woman in the world." It's time for her to do the world a favor and prove it.

Very Short List
Very Short List is a cool daily email that turns the spotlight on a single deserving but under-publicized item from the entertainment world. I provided today's check-this-out VSL suggestion -- Night of the Gun, a stunning memoir from New York Times columnist David Carr. Here it is.

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Comments

[BardEric]

If Condi is our last,best chance..We are all pretty much screwed w/o lube..

[KevinMast]

How do you know when Condoleezza Rice is lying? Her lips are moving.

[MissKaren]

The deterring factor for Bush/Cheney is the assurance, if it can be given, that they will be tried for treason and perhaps spend the rest of their miserable lives in Florence, CO's supermax next to the Blind Sheikh and others like him. If they know that disgrace and the hatred of all Americans would follow them on that disastrous course, they might be reined in. Otherwise they are rabid.

That said, I think the man who posted about Gates is right. Gates is strong enough and experience enough with enough perspective to put on the brakes. If McCain wins, Iran will be attacked. If Obama wins, Iran will have to cope with onerous sanctions if they go ahead with nuking up because Obama will get the rest of the world lined up before he does anything. He's a consensus builder.

[deminmo]

Condi changes her mind on Iran on a very
regular basis. She just happens to favor
negotiations right now. I

[tandrmcdonald]

If Dr. Rice is our last best hope for peace anywhere in the world, I'm digging up my vegetable garden and putting in a bomb shelter.

[darthmaul]

I think that you are looking at the wrong person. Robert Gates is the only one in the administration that has a sober logical view of the world as it is. You may remember that he was recently quoted as saying,

"Gates told Democratic senators at a policy luncheon that if the United States staged a preemptive strike on Iran, "we'll create generations of jihadists and our grandchildren will be battling our enemies here in America."

This guy is the only one who actually think a few moves ahead. Bush and Cheney have cowboy complexes, and Rice just wants to please Bush

[JonW]

You got this right, Darthmaul. Gates seems to be a solid,intelligent guy with sufficient backbone
for opposing reckless, studid neocon plans proposed by oil-crazed Chaney . Rice continues to be
the lapdog for the Bushers. Powell won't be remembered for his stellar army career but for his lame, cavee-in performance as sec of State,

[shedances]

Condi Rice has made considerable mistakes while serving under Bush; but if she were to convince either him or his extremely corrupt vice president, to avoid armed conflict with Iran by any means possible & despite Israel's influence & position, then I would gladly reconsider my current (low) view of her abilities.

K

[amp27]

I wonder if Rice's conscience will shine through, if she even has one. She seems to be taking a hard line on settlements in Isreal, chastising those who continue to settle in disputed areas, which is unheard of, I hear, to criticize Israel in any way.

I think talking out of three different sides of one's mouth is a sign of a very skilled politician, they are all inherently corrupt. There is no way to please everyone, and there is no way to be completely honest and be effective.

[Bonobo]

Two things define Condi Rice's political character; passivity and total dedication to George Bush. Conscience comes far behind those. Most foreign leaders, particularly the Israelis, have figured out that not only can they safely ignore anything she says, but it's actually a waste of time dealing with her since she's a doormat for any of the other Bushies, and will cave with the least bit of pressure. Saying mutually contradictory things is not political skill, it's just a matter of who the last person she talked to was.

[amp27]

The Iran conflict is just a ploy of the New World ORder / One World Company. That being said, Iran, with its earthquakes, is not an ideal environment to support nuclear power plants. I've heard the real issue is that Iran is threatening to buck OPEC's oil prices, which would collapse our dollar, and the monopoly on control of the world through oil.
But since the Trilateralists bought up all of the renewable energy patents long ago, they can still make tons of money on magnetic engines and solar technology. They just won't have the control they have been seeking. If anyone of you globalists is reading this, you can stop worrying about controlling people, it's not healthy for you. It's based on fear, and there is nothing to be afraid of. Please stop your plans of chipping us and cutting us off from currency at will. YOu are darkening your soul. There is more to life than this life on earth. This life is just a training ground on happiness, courage and love. Your power is very short-lived if it is not in accord with Divine principles. YOu will have to pay for your mistakes sometime. Remember the motto on the grounds at Pocantico: Nil Sine Numine

[meshach]

There might be a recession of war but there will NEVER be peace in the Middle East due to the enemies' wicked agenda to annihilate Israel and to destroy the USA. Our enemies make no secret of their seething hatred and envy of us. Thus, their goals are not to promote peace and good will in the long run.

[sprite]

Perhaps people are not envious of us. I know we think they are because, after all, don't we have more material things and more power than they? Isn't it the measure of good character, kindness and spirituality to own lots of good stuff?

Perhaps other, less opulent, countries might not be seething with hatred for us if we did not displace them, use them and their children as slaves, foul their environment, charge into their country for no reason and kill their loved ones and neighbors right in front of their faces, Could it be the USA whose goal has not been to promote peace and good will in the long run?

[ehemingway]

It might be scary Arianna, but it's also exciting. Condoleezza has finally found her voice through one of the most brilliant and under-utilized career foreign service officers in the State Department. By sending Under Secretary William Burns to Iran for talks this weekend Condi has finally crawled out from under the shiny black Wyoming boots of Dick Cheney and his neocon pals.

William Burns represents what American diplomacy should be. He was not appointed by any administration. He holds the highest position in the career foreign service. He has served other administrations admirably since the early 1980s, speaks many languages including Arabic and like Rice, is a Russia expert having served as Ambassador to Russia. I expect Burns and Rice, also a Russia expert get along well. I don't believe for one minute that Burns is going to sit on the sidelines at these talks listening and taking notes. Any low level staffer can do that.

Let's hope that opening an Interest Section in Teheran and having the likes of William Burns in the State Department when Barack Obama takes office will blow the winds of change in our direction at last.

[quest44]

Ms. Condi Rice and Bush are on the same page if not in the same bed together and she is useless as a negociator when she already has the Bush agenda in mind before going into any negociation and is ordered not to vary from that agenda !
Frankly she is just as guilty as Bush and Cheney of war crimes because she spread what she knew fiorst hand was propaganda to promote the war ! I have no use for the woman along with the whole Bush administration who sold out America !

[civillibertieslost]

I thought the lead line of the third graph, "As for Bush, who is unfettered by concerns about his political future. . .", was absolutely hillarious. Has the shrub really had anything at all to be "fettered" about at any point in his power inherited life? His personal history says no. How else can his smirking, dancing, frat boy attitude, while we are at war, be explained. Thankfully the shrub's "What Me Worry" act will soon be over, at least the part that gives him power over our lives.

[Axolotl]

we can expect nothing but incompetence and negligence and perfidy regarding Iran from Bush, Cheney, and Rice.

they have proven time and time again how they will try to lie their way out of any challenge and have no sense of the grave consequences of their actions.

they and their nextgen surrogate, McCain, need to be removed via the peaceful landslide against them expected in the November election.

No free pass for McCain. The Hague warcrime prosecutions for Bush, Cheney, and Condi.

[JJK]

You're being far too nice to Ms. Rice, even giving her a Pass for "keeping her head out of the line of fire" during the previous egregious and possibly criminal Bush Administration's foreign policy actions. I hold her as accountable as the neo-cons and their leader, Dick Cheney, and their chief enabler, Colin Powell. But, if she is indeed "all we have," then I guess we have to hope she stumbles her way into something useful and not destructive.

What I do hope is that Stanford University has the courage not to give her a prestigious place to go when she comes to the end of her ignominious tenure in Foggy Bottom. Any Standford Alums and/or big donors out there? I ask you to write to the your University President, John Hennessy stanford.edutanford.edu), and/or your Provost, John Etchemendy standford.edudford.edu), to tell them what you think. [These e-mail addresses are openly available on and provided by the Stanford Website.]