Tuesday's Second Biggest Winner: Democracy

Along with Barack Obama (and the other winners I've written about), there was another big winner on election day: democracy.

Based on initial numbers, it looks like over 133 million people turned out to vote on Tuesday -- 11 million more than voted in 2004 - producing the highest turnout rate in 44 years (62.5 percent). By way of comparison, the turnout rate in 1996 was just over 49 percent (that's right, less than half of those eligible to vote bothered to show up).

One of the most noteworthy trends was the makeup of the electorate.

In 2000, whites accounted for 81 percent of all voters. This year, that number fell to 74 percent, the result of an increase in both African American and Hispanic turnout. That is a huge demographic shift.

Those two groups, along with young voters, ended up having a tremendous impact on the outcome of the 2008 race.

Let's start with Hispanics, who accounted for the most dramatic swing. In 2004, Kerry outperformed Bush with Hispanic voters 59 percent to 40 percent. In 2008, the Hispanic vote went 67 percent for Obama, and only 31 percent for McCain -- a net improvement of 17 points.

Even more impressive was the shift in the battleground states with high Hispanic populations, particularly Florida. Four years ago, Hispanic voters in the Sunshine State went for Bush over Kerry 55 percent to 44 percent; this year Obama beat McCain among Florida Hispanics 57 to 42 -- a remarkable 26-point swing.

Hispanic voters made the difference in Colorado, Florida, and New Mexico. In Colorado, Obama's Hispanic support accounted for 12 percent of the electorate; he won the state by 7 percent. In Florida, Obama's Hispanic support accounted for nearly 8 percent of the electorate; he won the state by 2 percent. In New Mexico, Obama's Hispanic support accounted for 28 percent of the electorate; he won the state by 15 percent.

So much for the primary season conventional wisdom that Hispanics would be reluctant to vote for a black candidate.

Next up, young voters. Around 2.2 million more young people voted on Tuesday than did in 2004, accounting for 18 percent of the electorate -- a slight uptick from 17 percent in 2004. But they overwhelmingly voted for Obama: 66 percent to 32 percent - a 34-point spread. That's 25 percent more than the 9-point youth vote advantage Kerry had over Bush.

Patrick Ruffini at The Next Right drills it down further:

Had the Democratic 18-29 vote stayed the same as 2004's already impressive percentage, Obama would have won by about 2 points, and would not have won 73 electoral votes from Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, or Indiana. So, to clarify here: Obama's youth margin = 73 electoral votes.

We are witnessing a tremendous ideological shift among young voters - one that could reshape our politics for decades to come. From 1976 through 2004, young voters basically supported the same candidate as older voters in most elections. During that time, the average gap in presidential choice between young voters and the overall electorate was only 1.8 percent. In 2008, that gap was 28 percent, with Obama winning by 6 percent -- but carrying the youth vote by 34 percent.

And Obama's appeal to young voters cut across racial lines. Among voters 18-29, he got 54 percent of white voters, 76 percent of Hispanic voters, and 95 percent of African American voters.

Overall, over 2 million more African American voters turned out this time around. And they favored Obama over McCain 95 percent to 4 percent - a net 14-point increase from Kerry's 88 to 11 win over Bush.

Some other numbers:

Obama won among both women (56/43) and men (49/48). Whites favored McCain (55/43), but blacks gave Obama 95 percent of their vote, and Hispanics went for Obama 66/31.

Obama carried voters 18-29 (66/32), 30-44 (52/46), and 45-64 (50/49). The only group McCain carried was voters 65 and older (53/45). This oldest group accounted for only 16 percent of the electorate.

Obama won among all education levels carrying 63 percent among voters without a high school degree, 52 percent among high school grads, 51 percent among those with some college, 50 percent among college grads, and 58 percent among those with postgraduate degrees.

Obama also won in almost every size city. He carried big cities 70/28 (home to 11 percent of voters), small cities 59/39 (home to 19 percent of voters), and the suburbs 50/48 (home to 49 percent of voters). McCain won in small towns and rural areas 53/45 (home to 21 percent of voters)

Lastly, Jewish voters favored Obama 78 percent to 21 percent -- so much for the Lieberman bounce or the Khalidi smears!

All in all, a great election for democracy.

Comments

[blakfist]

The problem here is that Republicans have not only missed this paradigm shift they really dont know or have a clue on how to jump on the band wagon. They fail to understand that they first time voters from 18-29 are growing more progressive in thinking. The Right is based on racial divisions as proved in this election year as well as 2000 and 2004. They believe more in trickery than trust. They continue to think of their party as a party of Reagan than a party of people. Trust me on this if the Right dont do a complete refurbish of their party they will be on the sideline looking at America become stronger because of inclusiveness, tolerance of others differences, and forward thinking of Leaders like Barak Obama and others that are sure to come up after him

[donveylindsey]

donvey lindsey good time to be an american

[Highpsi]

What I am curious to see now is if we can all move on from the outdated notions that severe racism and inequality exist in our country still. Clearly, now that we've elected an African American President it would indicate that laws like affirmative action are no longer entirely needed.

This article proves that EVERYONE voted for Obama, and racism played no key role here as "The Bradley Effect" was supposed to have demonstrated. (Unless you use the notion that a %95 vote rate from the African American Community could be considered racism in itself).

I applaud our nation at being able to put behind us our racial differences and elect a man who is so obviously intelligent, well spoken and popular. It doesn't matter what the color of a person's skin is - it is what they stand for and have inside that counts. Now it is his turn to show us what he's got, and bring us the change he's promised...

[Alrightythen]

Well, I just wanted to say Welcome back, America. We missed you.

[DrG-Man]

In retrospect, predicting Obama's victory should have been a no-brainer from a sports perspective. In 2008 all champions in the four major sports (mlb, nfl, nba and nhl) came from blue states (PA, NY/NJ, MA and MI). In fact, during the last 8 years 26 champions came from now declared blue states and 5 from red states for an 84% to 16% advantage. Blue states rule!!!

BTW 2004, 4 champions came from blue states and 0 from red states and in 2000 2 came from blue states and 2 from red states.

Perhaps I have too much time on my hands to research this stuff!!!

[SeaBlood]

Now that we've elected a black president, maybe we won't have to listen to Rap music anymore.

[SarahBecker]

There are 57,434,084 individuals that disagree that Democracy won. Many believe it is America's darkest hour. Obama will be shown the same kindness Bush was for 8 years.

[ericmiami]

So you feel because your candidate didn't win, democracy didn't happen? Obama will earn kindness Bush didn't earn.

[orangepetal]

If Obama brings home the troops, reforms healthcare and starts America on the path to green energy/ energy independence while keeping the ecconomy working he will earn respect. Kindness has very little to do with it.

[luckyt]

So you think that defeating fascism is not a good thing for our Democracy.

[daddysboy]

That ANYONE could believe such a wholesome expression of democracy could be our darkest hour proves that some Americans are just so SELF-CENTERED that they will NEVER learn to care about anything but their own myopic vision of reality. "Country First" means that now that Obama was elected FAIRLY, it is time to support OUR president, not plan how to sabotage OUR Federal Administration because you may not have preferred the choice. This isn't like in 2000 where there was the continued possibility of debate. Obama WON entirely without question and THAT alone proves that our country is on the right track. I doubt seriously if anyone could ever achieve the same level of ineptitude that bush is guilty of, but Americans would and should criticize the government MORE if that ever becomes the case though I doubt that certain bitter parties will wait for any of that to ever happen before beginning their campaigns of hate.

[THINKB4USPEAK]

NO ATHEISTS IN FOX HOLES. To the poster who said protect truth, not speach, freedom of speach IS protection of truth, so all points can be heard, and everyone can decide for themself what is true. The problem of racism has very old, very deep roots, (think "tribal" or "clanish" preconceptions; "THEY are darker than US!", or vice versa.) For the problem to truly be resolved will require an overhaul of individual human perception of the world around us. Expose yourself to the whole world, or as much as you can absorb, and see that no one of us, and no group of us is more important than any other, nor very different in our needs. Food, shelter, just EXISTANCE for us and our children. We are all of us victims of the Politic of Fear, which works like this; "Those guys will hurt you-only I can protect you", a ploy which has served tribal bullies since caveman times.
Being deprived of opportunity is not a legitimate basis to call a people "inferior". Ignorance means one thing, "stupidity" is different. English spoken here. Lets keep it simple, and make it harder to obfuscate.

[billw8017]

Calling it "racism" is conceding to a particular world view; e.i., that there are "races," and that superficial differences among humankind are significant. Immigrants have met mixed reactions in America. Particularly, the Irish were scorned in the 19th century. By the times of Kennedy and Reagan, their Irishness was incidental. The African American has a most diverse genetic inheritance, but the prejudice extended to descendants who were almost entirely White. The semi secret scandal about Warren Harding was the rumor that he had African ancestors. Obviously, if he did not want to be of African descent, he does not deserve any credit for it. Remember this, the dogs of wealthy people are pedigreed and champions while their gardeners are mutts yet a human being is more capable than the smartest dog. People deserve more regard than a "racist" analysis would give them because all are potentially as capable. Racism is about social standing.

[THINKB4USPEAK]

but, you reinterate my point. That racism is perpetuated by our attention to the differences between us, rather than the factors we have in common.

[negogato]

THE WORK IS NOT DONE.
We still have our elections run by the incumbent party
We still have no guarantee that the right of citizens to vote shall not be denied.
Unless and until we have that right in the constitution we will be at the mercy of the incumbent party in CLOSE ELECTIONS.

the right of citizens to vote shall not be denied.

SIMPLE. make it a the highest law. Amend the constitution and lets move on and get to work!!

[Mugzi]

I agree 100%!!! Our elections need to be out of the hands of machinery, i.e.private companies. HAVA is the law that needs repealing/amending. I am very disheartened, since I did contact 2 of our senators looking for guidance in amending/repealing HAVA and Nelson didn't even address the issue. Martinez has not responded yet. Maybe bloggers with familiar knowledge of this type of thing, can offer suggestions. I'm thinking of a petition signed by thousands of people, also contacting the committee that enacted that horrible law to fix please! HAVA alienated and suppressed hundreds of thousands of voters in 2004. Voting machines (Diebold or whatever they call themselves, Sequoia, ESS) had many problems this election.

This isn't about Democrat or Republican, it's about right and wrong. All eligible, registered voters shouldn't be suppressed, intimidated, or lied to in order to vote.

We need paper ballots with pencil and oversight of counters by both/all parties. Canada does this and they have their election results by 11pm that same day.

[Bladernr1001]

Come on....get off it. No one has been denied the right to vote.

[Cheryl19]

It was difficult to have our little children bused outside of their own neighborhoods to desegregated schools. We wondered if we did the right thing as we saw their generation struggle for identity and belonging. We did not understand them so we called them generation X. At school, they were taught to be tolerant of other races, religions, and genders only to return to homes in which difference was not tolerated. They resorted to silence and retreated to cyberspace where they befriended youth all over the world. Then came the 2008 election! Something happened as the nation watched its youth work tirelessly for change. The resulting intergenerational dialogue transformed old ideas into new hopes. Generation X was defined; young Americans were now ready to take responsibility. Democracy triumphed in the resounding message of the Obama campaign, Yes We Can!

[SkyWolf]

My grandfather used to tell me, "The work of freedom is never finished. It is always just beginning."

On November 4th we began again the work of freedom. We are not yet out of the woods but we are emerging from the long twilight of fear and division. There is no return and the way leads only forward.

As a 60 year old Vietnam veteran and father of two, my wife and I hugged and cried as the television declared Obama to be our next president.

Thank you American and may we prove worthy of the opportunity now before us.

Yes we can. Yes we did. Yes we will.

[negogato]

SkyWolf we are the same generation. I cried from the beginning of my life when it was announced that Obama had won. I am from the segregationist south. I have seen such things. And passed through such times. I only wish that those who have passed on could have lived to see this day. We have the promise of our country back.

[Bladernr1001]

I mean....I hope we are NOT still crying 4 years from now.

Opps...typo on that first post.

[carolmitchell]

Living overseas, I think of all of us who have children like the President elect. I would like to think that the millions who have served in Peace Corps and or otherwise worked overseas saw how different our world could be with a leader like Mr. Obama. Will be interesting to watch the overseas vote comparing military versus non-military vote.

[Twinkie]

You folks in America need to let go of your obsession with freedom of speech and introduce libel and racial vilification laws like we have in Australia.

If these laws were in place the Republican party would be facing complete and total annihilation now. Obama would have them over a barrel on at least ten charges of libelous slander and vilification.

The damages would be enough to bankrupt McCain, Palin and the entire GOP.

You need to protect Truth not Speech.

[cgoodie]

I don't think so! Power defines what truth is. As you can see, we Americans are very capable of deciding what is relevant and what is not. We like our definition of Freedom just as it is.

[Bladernr1001]

Come on....both sides put out lies and streached truths. Thats politics today.

[Bladernr1001]

I am a conservative and I never thought my side was that pure.

It scares me to think that you would that you have this much faith that liberals always tell the truth. No pol always tells the truth. I think you need a little dose of reality.

[FormerReaganite]

America does not want a grumpy old white guy for president.
(case in point: I am a grumpy old white guy who voted for Obama)

Really.

[YouDisgustMe]

good for you, grandpa!! lol

[dkerrice2861]

As a Hispanic woman, I feared the Republicans would once again prevail in convincing the people of their BS. I thank president-elect Obama in reaching out to the Hispanic population and helping them to understand what was really at stake for our country! I would also like to thank my Latino brothers and sisters for standing up and speaking out by voting for the good of our country!

[Mugzi]

The beautiful part of this whole election, Obama reached to all of us! It took people of both sexes, all nationalities...we came together for a common cause and did it! We are all American and I am proud of it!!