War Deadenders Take Hope: The Surge May Not Be Working, But a US-Allawi Coup May Be On Its Way

As we all await the Petraeus Report on the state of the surge, we may also need to be anticipating the Allawi Coup.

I'm talking, of course about Ayad Allawi, longtime C.I.A. asset and former interim prime minister of Iraq. He's making quite the PR push to get his old job back, penning an op-ed for the Washington Post, hooking up with Wolf Blitzer on Late Edition on Sunday, and even putting the high-powered GOP lobbying firm Barbour Griffith & Rogers on a $300,000 retainer.

It says everything you need to know about who the true power holders in Iraq are that Allawi, who has a "six-point plan" for Iraq that involves replacing the current Prime Minister, is campaigning in Washington -- not Baghdad. He clearly knows that despite Bush's bathetic paeans to Iraqi sovereignty, the real deciders in Iraq are not the Iraqi people, but a few dozen folks in the White House and the Pentagon. They are Allawi's true constituency.

So where does the White House stand on the idea of Allawi replacing current embattled prime minister Nouri al-Maliki? Well, it depends on whether you think Mitch McConnell was freelancing on Fox News Sunday when he jumped on the bash-Maliki bandwagon, calling the Maliki-led Iraqi government "pretty much a disaster" -- or whether you think he was performing his familiar function as White House water carrier.

Could the White House be seeing in the blame-Maliki-for-the-disaster-in-Iraq meme an opportunity replace the sputtering "give the surge a chance" plan with a "give Allawi a chance" plan?

Let's go to the Blitzer-Allawi interview to see what such a move would mean for the White House.

For starters, Allawi told Blitzer that his "six points call for a full partnership with the United States" and that his "objective is to develop a plan to save Iraq and to save American lives, as well as, of course, Iraqi lives, and to save the American mission in Iraq." Full Partnership? Save the American mission? Surely, music to the White House's ears. And it was good of him to toss in those Iraqi lives -- of course.

So what would an Allawi takeover mean in terms of U.S. troops remaining in Iraq? "If we talk around the region of two to two-and-a-half years," Allawi told Blitzer, "I think we are in the right direction." Who needs Petraeus buying the administration another few months with his report when the Allawi coup can buy them another two-and-a-half years?

And the White House doesn't have to worry about Allawi knowing his lines -- he's already memorized the playbook. When Blitzer asked him when the United States might be able to start reducing our presence in Iraq, Allawi responded with a Bush classic: "As soon as the Iraqi forces are able to stand on their feet and provide security for the Iraqis I think the draw-down should start." Ah: When they stand up, we can stand down! Misty water-colored memories. Being away from Iraq so much, I guess Allawi missed all those reports about the repeated failure of Iraqi forces to "stand on their feet."

So exactly how would an Allawi-for-Maliki switch occur? Allawi says he wants to proceed by "democratic means." But after being appointed interim prime minister by the U.S.-led coalition in June of 2004, Allawi had six months to campaign before the January 2005 legislative elections. He came in third with 14% of the vote.

When Blitzer asked Allawi who is paying for the $300,000 Barbour Griffith & Rogers lobbying contract, Allawi wouldn't say. He was only willing to disclose that the "payment is made by an Iraqi person who was a supporter of us, of the INA, of myself, of our program, and he has supported this wholeheartedly, without any strings attached."

As Spencer Ackerman of TPMmuckracker wrote, perhaps it's being financed by Allawi's old buddy Hazem Shaalan, who Allawi appointed as his defense minister. Shaalan is currently fighting charges that he stole $1 billion from the Iraqi defense budget (out of a total of $1.3 billion). That's some way to endear yourself to the Iraqi people.

Allawi and Shaalan are also closely tied to the Iraqi National Intelligence Service, which is funded and controlled by the C.I.A. and which has been a persistent thorn in relations between the U.S. and Maliki.

Meanwhile, we'll have to see whether Barbour Griffith & Rogers' lobbying will be as effective with administration officials as it has been with Washington's media gatekeepers. Last week, Bush issued a tepid defense of Maliki, saying he is "a good guy, a good man with a difficult job, and I support him." Hmm, didn't he say the same thing about Alberto Gonzales? And Don Rumsfeld?

While I was working on this post, I got a call from John Cusack, who had watched Blitzer's interview with Allawi from Berlin, where he is making a movie. He was stunned by Blitzer's remark to Allawi, after he had read him Maliki's quote about Iraq being able to "find friends elsewhere": "Those words," Blitzer said, "were seen here in Washington as pretty biting, given the enormous amount of support the United States has provided Iraq over these years."

"Can you imagine?" Cusack told me. "We invade their country, an invasion that has resulted in over 100,000 -- and maybe as many as 650,000 -- Iraqi civilians dead; 2 million Iraqis having fled the country, with 1.14 million displaced from their homes within Iraq; and tens of thousands of Iraqis detained -- with many of them tortured. After that 'enormous amount of support,' Iraqis have the temerity to complain?"

Talk about ingratitude. I bet Allawi would never bite the hand that feeds -- and bombs -- him.

Comments

[fourex]

"As we all await the Petraeus Report"
There is no Petraeus Report. There is a report at AEI that will declare progress. It was written by a Mr. Kagan and will be initialed by the General.

[cuniverse]

Guns, Germs & Steel(Steal) Western Europe answer to humanities.
The world has changed, from that module.
The Anglo Saxon axis ,USA led Juggernaut, is not yet awaken to that fact.
The Moslems, will not allow their precious resources to be plundered by any foreign power any more, for they are passionately aware of old divide and rule trick, perfected by England in the Americas ,Africa, India, and recently in North Africa ect
The ARABS ARE PLAYING you America , like a well tuned Harp.
Get out America before it is too late, for they, like the Asians, now understand your vulnerabilities ,
They are creating the stage from where you will self-destruct, decay from within.

[lthuedk]

Didn't the cleric al-Sadr rise up with Allawi, Act 1? It seems the intent is to enlarge the genocide-i­n-progress­.

Neo Cons are not stupid. Bring Allawi in and Bill Kristol will have a Straussian fascigasm felt from Washington to Tel Aviv.
.

[fantagor]

The dichotomy here, and it's a strange one, is that while the Iraq war is America's "investment" in the Middle East, Iraq, like it or not, belongs to the Iraqis.

Here's another one: the American people want the government that represents them to pull out of Iraq, but the government, voted in by those people, won't leave for numerous reason concocted either thoughtfully or extemporaneously.

Then there's the Iraqis who want the occupying armies of the USA out of their country and the Iraqis who fear things will go COMPLETELY to hell, that the last 10% of hell not evident in Iraq will manifest itself, if the occupiers leave.

Pile on top of that s**t heap that the current Iraqi government is in such a NOLA-esque shambles that Washington, D.C. is conceiving backing a coup against the government it personally oversaw, from conception to birth, and you have one seriously FUBARed mess.

Which leaves us, them, and the world where? Back at square one, that’s where.

Four and a half years later and we can safely conclude that:

1. To the USA’s present “leadership”, Iraq, which is considered a military problem, is unsolvable.
2. Throwing money at an unsolvable problem is a prima facie waste of money.

Therefore I propose simplifying all three dichotomies as follows:

1. Leave Iraq, as per what the voters asked for November 2006.
2. Leave Iraq, as per what a majority of the Iraqi parliament voted for earlier this year.
3. Leave the present Iraqi government in tact and bring the UN into the picture, someone who can referee the various factions and negotiate a peaceful solution.

And anyone who pooh-poohs my suggestion should shut their vacuous pie-holes.

Everything I have listed, which Bush and all the boobs who got us into this mess have vehemently warned against, hasn’t been attempted, so it’s safe to conclude that LEAVING IRAQ AS IS MUST BE THE RIGHT MOVE.

Randy (one exhausted dude)

[researcher]

ok we have become an immoral country but the neo cons love it it fits their agenda.

control of much of the resources in the world.

it is capitalism run amuck to the point of imperialism.

now lets get a better puppet pm in iraq and get that oil flowing to israel.

god I love capitalism. god's gift to americans.jesus was a capitalist you know. and taught that corporations should make huge profits off the sick and needy. he even advocated medical dr's become rich off the sick. he was a sucker for money and said only the rich get into heaven. that camel story about the eye of a needle dont believe it that was put into the bible by the liberals.

let the imperialism role on. canada next they have lots of oil in the form of oil slates.

shock and awe will have them under control in two weeks. guys with red suits on horses easy kill. tanks will roll right over them.

[researcher]

We don’t even have to wait for the troops to come home from Iraq our national guard can do the trick they seem more than willing to participate in our mercenary army.

God I love nationalism it is the cheapest way to have a mercenary army and take control of another nations resources. Ie oil. So what if we have to buy some legs for returning soldiers just call them heroes. The neo cons love those that fight in wars as long as their children don’t have to do the killing and dying. On the farm we had hawks called chicken hawks and we do the chicken hawks a disservice by calling neo cons chicken hawks.

Our chicken hawks on the farm only killed to eat neo con chicken hawks support war mongering for the generation of wealth and to promote an ideology of capitalism and imperialism.

If not enough soldiers pay more illegals to join up and promise them a free pass to American citizenship. Look at the brilliance of that move hired soldiers that kill for us and then use them as cheap labor when they come home of course we hope and pray they do come home as we neo cons are Christian and followers of Jesus. Jesus was the best capitalist that ever lived.

God I love his teachings about capitalism. Brilliant teachings to make huge profits off the sick and needy. I cannot believe the other 23 industrialized countries offer medical care without huge profits from their sick and needy. Dumb very dumb indeed.

[MinuteMan]

I've seen other stories saying that the men in the shadows really wanted to install a new strong-man to replace Saddam; a strong-man is much easier to control. After all the Cheney/Bush presidency has been working out pretty good in the USA---for the men in the shadows, anyway.

[Londonliberal]

When the Bush and Blair duo decided upon the ill starred "Enterprise of Iraq" they were warned that it would be essential to put in sufficient "boots on the ground" to maintain order before experiments in democracy. They thought they knew better.

Order has broken down and the USA simply does not have the military manpower to retrieve the situation. The likely outcome is up to 15 years of civil strife until the various factions fight one another to a standstill. Then the surviving Iraqis will have to rebuild their nation (or separate provinces).

If and when they do, the US and UK will not be the partner countries. But China, France, Turkey and others who stood on the sidelines may do quite well. Whatever happens Iraqi oil will be sold on the open market to the highest bidders - and China and Japan will be willing takers.

There is an Arab proverb to the effect that it is better to have the British as enemies than friends: if you are a friend they betray you, if you are an enemy, they try to buy you.

Blair betrayed Iraq by acting as Bush's poodle and it is going to take maybe 25 years before the UK will be trusted in the region again. I shudder to think how long it will take the USA.

[Richardini]

When the Republicans get ready to dump al Maliki, you can be sure they have another clown in their pocket to take over. Now, they are pushing for Allawi, the former interim P.M. On Wolf Blitzer's program, he was patently ass kissing the Americans and of course, Bush has probably already made up his mind (wherever that is) so that we can expect this coup before long, probably soon after Petraeus gives his long awaited Sept. 11 report which will obviously contain all of Shrub's bromides and off we go again on a great spending spree. Forget Warner's speech about Christmas. We are dug in up to our behinds in sand and it will take an earthquake to get us out. Besides, Billy Graham thinks Bush is right and you can't beat that.

[USMC1980]

Sadly, as horrible as Hussien was, he apparently knew how to keep that nightmare country together. Maliki is a joke, and a bafoon, who insults our soldiers and our country at pretty much every opportunity, despite the fact that this butt clown wouldn't even be breathing if it wasn't for us keeping him alive.

Now we got another loser Allawi, buttering up to the Bush administration. What's sad is that Bush and Cheney are so dumb, they may actually cut a deal with this guy, and we will end up with yet another moron running Iraq and screwing us over. The only way this nightmare is going to end is when Bush finally leaves the White House in disgrace and we have a new president who knows what the hell they are doing.

[Destin]

This is the one "just like Vietnam" comparison that Bush conveniently forgot all about. About how we'd change the dictators in South Vietnam as frequently as politicians change their minds about an issue. Usually whenever the wind blows. ;)

Maybe, just maybe, if we let the Iraqi people decide for themselves what they want, be it democracy or not; as well as their leaders, then maybe we'd start to see some kind of light at the end of the tunnel. But so long as we keep sticking our noses into their business, we'll keep fomenting revolutions and insurgencies until such a time as the Iraqi people finally get what they want. Or there is nobody left, whichever comes first.

[ohboy]

I'm not waiting for the Petraeus report and, judging from most of the posts, neither is anyone else. The general's "report" is coming to us via Hill & Knowlton. Who gives a shit what that mass murdering gnome has to say anyway? Anyone with half a brain knows this occupation is a political, economic and human rights disaster.

As for Allawi, how fitting for the American idiots who support the troops and Bush to squander our treasury to replace one U.S. backed dictator with another.

[rhutcheson]

I'm thinking this coup might happen differently than the overthrow of Diem.

Here, it might just involve the U.S. making deals with Sunni and some Shia parliamentary factions, agreeing to fund/support them if they give their support to Allawi.

The coup would hardly be noticed in the U.S., thereby avoiding the uproar that happened when Diem was assassinated.

[Horsefeather]

The fact that the average Iraqi is a staistic of death, dismemberment, or other reduced state of health, out of a home, job, dream, family, friends, electricity, food, education, and medical care doesn't play inside the climate controlled thoughts of too many Americans to make much of a difference. Otherwise this would not be happening. Do other humans really exist outside of this country who aren't enemies or possible converts?

[UncleDave]

' misty water-colored memories' Brilliant! 'Ohhh the way WE WERE' This clusterfu#k will never end. I see a great nation dissolving before my eyes and We are to blame. Hand Me another drink before I put an icepick in my retina.

[TankerRat]

UncleDave, let me know when you're having that drink(s). The only time any of this mess makes the least bit of sense is when your blasted. I share your sentiments about this great nation of ours as well.

[HOORGANVISOR]

There is truth, lies, and propaganda which I call lies that people want to believe. In Iraq, we have propaganda from both the right and left. Unless someone has been to Iraq to see what is happening over there, they can't say they are right if they are only supporting propaganda. Too often, the media believes lie so much that they destroy the truth in order to replace it with lies. The real problem comes when the lies become the truth and what once was true is considered lies.

In 1897, the newspapers wanted something to report on. The Spanish American War was a result of the press creating a war through its reporting on propaganda. The destruction of the Maine was an act of carelessness and not aggression which produced open conflict. We won that war and gave the press the idea it could shape history. If it misshapes Iraqi history and gets its way, it will have alot to report on like the terrorist attacks on America and the possible collapse of America. No amount of propaganda will be able to extinguish the flames or bring the dead back to life we will lose.