The long awaited demise of Osama bin Laden at the hands of U.S. military is a historic event, and a crowning accomplishment in the global struggle against terror. Its consequences are likely to be felt long after the initial reactions to the event subside and the media turn to alternative stories and dramas du jour. Operational, inspirational and motivational consequences are likely to unfold.
On the operational level, even though al Qaeda "central" has been to a large extent dismantled and run into hiding, there is nonetheless evidence that bin Laden continued to sign off on the largest plots and operations of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates. Though another leader is likely to soon step into bin Laden's shoes, none of the potential candidates for the position has the stature, charisma and gravitas to exert the leadership that he has provided. The splintering of al Qaeda is likely to be magnified and the coordination of its activities is likely to be reduced.
Arguably, of a far greater importance than the operational level, is the inspirational level. Because of his considerable stature and charisma, bin Laden's pronouncements were inspirational to thousands of impressionable youths ready to radicalize. He was a symbol and a model. A person who sacrificed his material interests for the cause, who demonstrated courage in battle, and was able to organize spectacular attacks against the United States and its allies. His demise is likely to considerably hurt al Qaeda propaganda attempts and its ability to turn enthusiastic youths to the cause of jihad.
The killing of bin Laden is likely to deal a serious blow to potential recruits' motivation to embark on terrorism and embrace the terrorism-justifying ideologies that portray as effective tools to accomplish political objectives. Nothing succeeds like success, and nothing fails like failure. The killing of bin Laden without his strategy having accomplished any of its stated political objectives, the killing two years earlier of Vellupilai Prabakharan, the supreme leader of the Tamil Tigers (and the dismantlement of the TT as a force to reckon with in Sri Lanka), indicates that terrorism's likelihood of success is slim, and such lowered expectancy of success, to the extent that it is properly advertised, is likely to act as a coolant on hot-headed youths ready to join in the fight.
Intriguingly, the tenacity, determination and relentlessness showed by the U.S. military and its Commander in Chief fly in the face of the terrorists' propaganda that the West has a short time span and lacks the patience and the persistence to win the struggle, the idea that while "Americans have the watches, terrorists have the time." It took almost a decade to hunt bin Laden down, and the patience and resolve of the American military and its staying the course despite immense obstacles shows that it is not only the terrorists who "have the time."
None of the above is to be taken to suggest that the war on terror is over. To twist Winston Churchill's famed Dunkirk speech, this is hardly the end or even the beginning of the end, though it might be the end of the beginning. In the short run, we might even witness an intensification of terrorist attempts (as suggested by other instances of targeted killings of terrorist figures). But the emotional reaction of terrorist leaders fueling these attempts may not last very long, whereas the operational, inspirational and motivational consequences of bin Laden's exit are likely to endure.
Beyond the need to press on with counterterrorism activities hitting the iron while it is hot, and the maintenance of supreme vigilance in anticipation of violent reactions on part of the al Qaeda network, it is equally important to engage in an explanatory campaign that casts the correct light on bin Laden's killing and that frames terrorist tactics as fumbling, ineffective and counterproductive. Such attempts may well contrast the futility of the jihad approach to the Arab Spring that peacefully and with civility promise to change the face of the Middle East.
J.M. Berger: Terrorist Propaganda: Past And Present (PHOTOS)
Osama bin Laden Killed by U.S. Forces in Pakistan - ABC News
Osama Bin Laden Dead, Obama Announces
Bin Laden's demise: Long pursuit, burst of gunfire - Yahoo! News
Osama Bin Laden Killed: Implications First Take | zero hedge
Osama bin Laden's death: Consequences of Bin Laden's death not so ...
Has Osama Bin Laden been dead for seven years - and are the U.S. ...
Osama Bin Laden is dead - It's time to end our wars | Thom ...
As he read, ate, had a few announcements the danger of Arab population, food, jobs and the largest the new idea of Arab nationalism grew and was ignored by the USA.
A man is dead. No body. DNA that world not be allowed in Court and bad pictures. It is a small media flurry and was hoped by the political staff around the O'man to get the heat off him for a month or so. But, as seen most Americans care more about the cost of gas, insurance prices, school lunch program costs, education, job creation and expansion then a man who was a danger ten years ago.
Today, across the Arab world, as governments fall a power vacuum is created. Into this is stepping the Arab Brotherhood a core of nationalistic leaders who will join the Arab world together using the oil money to crate a new Arab world. OBL is or was not a part of this. He was the past! The danger is America is also living ten years in the past with leaders who do not Understand American needs of today or see the world as it is today!
On the hand, nonviolent, homegrown, uprisings sweeping through North Africa and the Middle East have actually toppled unpopular governments. The comparison between the efficacy two revolutionary models seems obvious, and that is what really worries Al Qaeda.
That sentence alone is ignorant.
US is in financial ruin, Home land security dep., TSA, Patriot Act, Torture etc.etc.
All are the reactive results of Al Qaeda. The American Empire is on its last legs as we speak.
Oh, and we have no moral capital left either.
However I disagree with you about torture and the economy. This country was using extraordinary rendition long before 09/11/2001 and you're fooling yourself if you think otherwise. Having other counties do our dirty work for us does not absolve us of involvement. The ruin of the U.S. economy started with Ronald Reagan some 30 years ago. We brought that on ourselves with no help from the likes of Osama bin Laden.
As others have said, the pro-democracy movements are much more empowering and likely to succeed, whereas terrorism is a dead-end, sort of occupation.
Other qutoes at www.inkellyswords.blogspot.com
Unlike regular uniform armies that fight other regular armies, commandos that attack military or government installations or guerrilla war fare that use ambush methods against army patrols. Terrorists are different.
In this case we are and any other country that supports Israel in one way or another are enemies of Islam. terrorist will attack a country's civilian population believing that after striking fear into the heart and minds of the civilians to demand their govt. withdraw support. They will continue to kill civilians maybe not as big as 9-11 but probably like malls, movie theaters, sporting events whereever very large crowds gather. We have seen this on the news. They may not be as smart as Ben Laden but they still believe in their cause (no matter how they interpret the Quran) just the way we strongly believe in democracy. and Oil
BZ.
Just watch the GOPers who affirm that the War on Terror is not over. Then follow the money. Then daylight them.
BZ.
Some are glad and others are angry but - the conditions that drove OBL (and many others) to terrorism still exist and for some, they're sufficient reasons to take that route (an opinion I'd don't share - but then, none of have asked me for my position, nor do I know any terrorists).
Is there any more to it? I doubt it.
"Beyond the need to press on with counterterrorism activities hitting the iron while it is hot"
That's not how it works. OBL was located based on information gathered over time, and wasn't the result of invading or occupying other sovereign nations.
Obama took a calculated risk and his success was based on intelligence information and getting in and out as fast as possible (which is what I suggested years ago).
"... it is equally important to engage in an explanatory campaign that casts the correct light on bin Laden's killing and that frames terrorist tactics as fumbling, ineffective and counterproductive."
When the cost of the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars are measured, who won?
From the Military Families Speak Out website. www.msfo.org :
"Amid the requisite flag-waving, chanting, and nationalistic fervor over the death of Osama bin Laden, I will not be rejoicing myself. There will be no vindication for me as I remember the sacrifice of my brother, a soldier killed in Iraq in 2004.
If the largely symbolic event of bin Laden's death brings closure for the countless people affected by the tragedy of 9/11, I wish them peace. But his death does not offer any to me. It cannot undo the legacy of the reckless endeavors undertaken in the aftermath of that tragedy".
What may be convenient to forget in these moments of righteous chest-beating is that, shortly after the devastation perpetuated by this criminal, we accepted an ideology of permanent war. We waved not the Stars and Stripes, but the flag of revenge.
The so-called war on terror took us to Iraq, a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 or bin Laden. Preemptive warfare was introduced to the lexicon of American foreign policy. We happily absorbed a series of fabrications that told us our own security depended on bombing and invading this country. In the process, we abandoned ideals that are essential to our tradition and spirit.
My brother was killed chasing a ghost, scouring the desert for weapons of mass destruction. But the true ghost we chase - the bin Laden that is still hidden to us - is our sense of security. In that regard, the legacy of bin Laden will be that he successfully baited us into endless conflict in the Middle East, putting us on a road to military, economic, and moral bankruptcy.
Will bin Laden's death make us finally feel safe? This country spends more money on its defense than all the other nations on Earth combined, and yet we cannot say with any conviction that the wars in the Middle East have done anything to increase our security. The consensus, in fact, is that they have done the opposite.