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Ariel Edwards-Levy
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Entries by Ariel Edwards-Levy

HUFFPOLLSTER: What Is A Push Poll, Anyway?

(0) Comments | Posted February 12, 2016 | 8:24 AM

Campaigns turn sleazy as they move into South Carolina; rumor has it Ted Cruz is running "push polls" in the state. Voters with daughters are more likely to support Hillary Clinton. And college activism reaches a 50-year high. This is HuffPollster for Friday, February 12, 2016.

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HUFFPOLLSTER: Bernie Sanders Amps Up Poll Spending By 900 Percent

(1) Comments | Posted February 11, 2016 | 8:13 AM

The Bernie Sanders campaign is boosting its polling budget, but it’s hard to tell exactly how much candidates are spending. Nonwhite voters may be up for grabs in Nevada and South Carolina. And favorability ratings show why Trump might have problems in a general election. This...

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6 Things New Hampshire's Exit Polls Tell Us About This Election

(1) Comments | Posted February 10, 2016 | 2:32 PM

New Hampshire's primaries, which on Tuesday crowned a pair of outsider candidates in Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) and businessman Donald Trump, have a mixed record of picking the eventual presidential nominees. But the state's exit polls, which delve into the demographics and opinions...

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HUFFPOLLSTER: ‘Outsiders’ Won Big In New Hampshire

(0) Comments | Posted February 10, 2016 | 8:33 AM

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire, marking a loss for the party establishments but a triumph for polling . There are few surveys to set expectations in South Carolina or Nevada. And Democrats are warming up to the “liberal” label. This is HuffPollster for...

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Donald Trump's Support Had Almost Nothing To Do With Ideology

(0) Comments | Posted February 9, 2016 | 10:11 PM

Donald Trump's win in the New Hampshire GOP primary Tuesday night highlights a peculiarity of his support: His base is all over the map.

Although Iowa's winner, Ted Cruz, found success by appealing disproportionately to the state's most conservative voters, Trump's...

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A Lot Of People Just Realized Donald Trump Could Become President

(14) Comments | Posted February 9, 2016 | 9:37 PM

"Oh my god, I just realized that Donald Trump could become the actual president," Fusion's Kevin Roose, who doesn't normally cover politics, wrote Tuesday night after Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary.

A lot of people had the same realization on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

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HUFFPOLLSTER: New Hampshire Voters Could Still Be Swayable On Primary Day

(0) Comments | Posted February 9, 2016 | 8:19 AM

Polling shows that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have substantial leads, but many Republican voters could change their minds. Sanders’ image is improving nationwide. And the role of money in campaigns is complicated. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, February 9, 2016.


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New Hampshire Residents Get 'Voter Shamed' By New Mailers

(2) Comments | Posted February 8, 2016 | 5:47 PM

With a day until the New Hampshire primary, some residents of the state are receiving "voter shaming" mailers from an unknown group that are meant to embarrass them into turning out.

The letters, which warn residents that "your neighbors and other people you know will all...

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What The Hogwarts Sorting Hat Would Make Of The Presidential Candidates

(0) Comments | Posted February 8, 2016 | 11:32 AM

Political punditry this year has largely focused on sorting the presidential candidates into "establishment" and "outsider" lanes.

Until now, we've only been able to guess at an even more key distinction: who'd be hanging out with Harry Potter in Gryffindor Tower, and...

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HUFFPOLLSTER: Signs Of Trouble For Donald Trump In New Hampshire And Beyond

(1) Comments | Posted February 8, 2016 | 8:13 AM

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz face considerable challenges. We face a mountain of new polling in New Hampshire. And Hillary Clinton spent more on polling in the last quarter of 2015 than most of the GOP candidates combined. This is HuffPollster for Monday, February 8, 2016.

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What The Polling Miss In Iowa Means For New Hampshire And Beyond

(0) Comments | Posted February 5, 2016 | 3:16 PM

In the aftermath of Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-Texas) surprise Iowa win, pollsters have been trying to figure out why he and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) surged beyond expectations, even as businessman Donald Trump flopped.

The reasons why pollsters got it wrong could...

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GOP Voters Are Ready To See Most Of Their Candidates Drop Out

(2) Comments | Posted February 5, 2016 | 11:05 AM

The first months of 2016 have already claimed the presidential campaigns of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R). But Republican voters would be fine with seeing the field get even smaller, according to

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HUFFPOLLSTER: New Hampshire Primaries Could Bring More Surprises

(0) Comments | Posted February 5, 2016 | 8:00 AM

Pollsters warn that the New Hampshire primaries could offer surprises. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are maintaining their comfortable leads in the Granite State, but Marco Rubio seems to be surging. And your age probably determines how you get your news about the election. This is...

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Do Polls Still Work If People Don't Answer Their Phones?

(0) Comments | Posted February 4, 2016 | 3:11 PM

Pollsters face a growing obstacle in gathering Americans’ opinions: getting people to answer their calls. The proportion of people called who answer the survey -- in pollster jargon, the "response rate" -- has dropped dramatically over the last few decades as Americans have changed how they...

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HUFFPOLLSTER: Americans Agree With Bernie Sanders And Ted Cruz On Broken Government

(4) Comments | Posted February 4, 2016 | 8:17 AM

Cruz and Sanders appeal to the public by touting a broken government. President Obama’s approval ratings have steadily improved. And ESPN finds that most NFL fans think criticism of Cam Newton is not racially motivated. This is HuffPollster for Thursday, February 4, 2016.


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White And Black Americans Agree That Heroin Abuse Is A Serious Problem

(0) Comments | Posted February 3, 2016 | 12:54 PM

Heroin addiction has joined perennial topics like the economy and foreign policy as a mainstay of the campaign trail this year -- in large part because New Hampshire, one of the states hardest hit by opioid abuse, is a key destination during presidential...

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HUFFPOLLSTER: A 'Seismic Shift' Among Voters May Have Won Cruz The Caucus

(0) Comments | Posted February 3, 2016 | 8:00 AM

Early analysis shows Iowa polls may have missed the Republican results because they were simply too early. New Hampshire seems stable, but that could change. And Gallup finds states shifting toward the GOP, but that doesn’t necessarily give Republicans an election advantage. This is HuffPollster for...

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HuffPollster: Iowa Caucus Results Show Polling Miss, But Don’t Stun Pollsters

(0) Comments | Posted February 2, 2016 | 7:51 AM

Polls missed the Iowa GOP race, but came much closer for the Democratic race. And pollsters say they're not surprised they got it wrong. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, February 2, 2016.


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Here's How Voters Would Interpret A Clinton Loss In Iowa

(1) Comments | Posted February 1, 2016 | 3:25 PM

Monday's Iowa caucuses won't enshrine any presidential nominees quite yet -- just ask former victors Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Tom Harkin.

But the results will affect how the candidates are perceived by...

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Here's Why Polls Got The Republican Caucus Wrong

(8) Comments | Posted February 1, 2016 | 11:51 AM

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) pulled off an upset win in Iowa over not only Donald Trump but also the polls, which almost universally showed him behind.

That miscall is a strike against surveys' accuracy, but it doesn't come...

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