More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Asheel Qayum

Asheel Qayum

Posted: January 7, 2010 03:09 PM

Does Afghanistan Have a Military Solution?

What's Your Reaction:

With President Obama's order to inject more troops into Afghanistan, tension has risen among the ordinary Afghans in the countryside, especially in the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand, where most of the new troops are expected to be deployed to tackle the spreading insurgency.

With 30,000 new American troops and another 7,000 to 10,000 NATO forces the number of the foreign forces in Afghanistan will reach over 140,000, which will match the number of Soviets solders during their occupation.

These days there is a famous saying among regular Afghans -- more troops need more targets. This is true. The more solders there are, the higher the number of attacks there will be. Then more civilians will be killed by the crossfire between the coalition forces and the insurgents. In their recent air raid in Laghman province, American forces killed civilians, including women and children. This triggered a violent demonstration in Laghman the next morning. This and hundreds of similar incidents can widen the gap between the Afghan government, foreign forces and regular Afghans even more.

Besides, with the increase of troops, insurgents will double their size and with every surge and raid by the Americans, new waves of young Afghans will be pushed to the insurgency. So far this has been one of the main reasons for the spread of the insurgency. Americans say that new waves of troops will drive out the insurgents from restive areas and will pave the way for social and development projects. People here believe solders are not trained to bring security, they are trained to kill. The only thing they are good at is killing.

Moreover, American solders know little about Afghanistan. They don't know the culture and traditions and they can't get along with people. In their eyes, every Afghan who has a turban and wears a shalwar kamis is a Talib or is a part of al Qaeda. They treat Afghans like war prisoners and behave like occupiers. For example, when an American convoy passes, everybody should stop and all vehicles should move away. That is why anti-American sentiments are growing every day. During the first two or three years of the occupation only people in the countryside hated the Americans but today even in big cities people hate them and consider them not as friends but as occupiers and enemies.

Today, insurgents are active in every chunk of the country and it seems that the insurgency is growing beyond the Pashtun provinces. Until early 2008, the north was pretty safe and hardly any foreign forces' convoys were attacked. But that didn't last long because the Taliban managed to extend the insurgency to the north as well. That means that the insurgency is not confined to one part of the country -- it is all over the country. Besides, there are different groups of insurgents fighting the foreign forces. Therefore, focusing on one part of the country and sending more troops there to tackle insurgency cannot solve the problem. In order to tackle the insurgency effectively, the United States needs a couple of hundred thousand solders, which is something the US is not capable of.

Most experts believe that if Afghanistan had a military solution, the Soviets would still be ruling it. The only way to break the current deadlock is diplomacy and negotiation. Otherwise, military escalation will bring prosperity neither to Afghans nor to the people of the United States.

Asheel Qayum, a pseudonym, works for a major American news outlet in Kabul, and has lived in Afghanistan all his life. His name and appearance are withheld in the interest of his personal safety.

 
 
 
  • Comments
  • 27
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Recency  | 
Popularity
09:42 AM on 01/09/2010
SCIENTIFICALLY NURTURED CULTURAL IGNORANCE

The writer makes one thing perfectly clear: it is the brutality and the ignorance of the American soldier that spurs the Afghan resistence.

In the American debate - as was the case in Irak and Vietnam - the cultural issue is rarely discussed.
Soldiers brainwashed by a consumerist culture must deal with an immensely complex archaic culture
with roots in Antiquity. Not only do they screw up culturally, but ,when they don't understand, they kill.
The imperial power is creating so much hatred against it, that it is bound to lose the war.
So the geo-political goals of the American administration will succumb to the carefully nurtured ignorance and contempt for old-world complexity drummed into American minds by the US establishment and its media.
03:38 AM on 01/09/2010
Yes there is a Military Solution: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/percy-blakeney/hold-the-line-in-afghanis_b_321156.html
10:41 PM on 01/08/2010
But who is it bringing prosperity to? Don't you think that the point of this Afghanistan occupation is so that war can go on indefinitely? The more insurgents we create, the longer we can justify throwing billions of dollars and thousands of lives into an unwinnable struggle. And certain parties make a lot of money off those defense contracts. And obviously we need a reason to even have a military and to justify the huge budgets, hence Afghanistan. A few more crotch and shoe bombers claiming alliegience to "Alqueda" is all we need to stoke the fires of an even longer deployment. Or how about another video from "Osama bin Laden?"
It's an endless war, and that is the point. Because to end our wars now might mean no more American wars. We are too interconnected, through communication technology and our economies, to continue to pretend that there is any difference between the people of America and the people of Iran or Afghanistan or Iraq. We're humans, and we want the same things, and we feel the same emotions. Remember that the people profiting will profit no matter if we ever "win" or achieve "victory" in the Middle East. And they will keep profiting as long as we keep fighting, and that's the point.
11:50 AM on 01/08/2010
When the Bush administration decided to ignore international law and invade a peaceful country to overthrow a dictator that was put in place there by the Reagan Administration, they went against every principle that made this country great. Until we remove all our troops from the middle-east, and do something to solve our problems at home, our reputation in every country is ruined. If I could afford to go anywhere after the damage the neoconservative war/profit-mongers have done to our economy, I would definitely say I was from Canada. I invite you to my pages devoted to raising awareness on these important issues: http://pltcldscsn.blogspot.com/
11:48 AM on 01/08/2010
Everybody knows that the real reason US troops are in Afghanistan, is to keep the opium fields in full production. Until we remove all our troops from the middle-east, and do something to solve our problems at home, our reputation in every country is ruined. If I could afford to go anywhere after the damage the neoconservative war/profit-mongers have done to our economy, I would definitely say I was from Canada. I invite you to my pages devoted to raising awareness on these important issues: http://pltcldscsn.blogspot.com/
09:50 AM on 01/08/2010
Despite their misgivings the Afghans will eventually unite to defeat the American invaders and their puppet government run by the Karzai cartel. The taliban will return to power under an agreement with the defeated Americans so as to insure their extremism remains entirely domestic allowing the Americans to save face.
08:55 AM on 01/08/2010
I guess more troops will cause more of a problem. Oh well, it's only a few hundred American lives we'll waist and a few billion dollars while people go without work and food in the U.S. No big deal. We'll just keep borrowing.
08:28 AM on 01/08/2010
US forces have NEVER won a war against an enemy that was not a sovereign state. Small wonder, as neither has any other world power. You see, if the enemy is not capable of capitulating and signing a treaty fully enforceable under international law, there is no practical criterion for “victory” and no end to hostilities. Consequently, politicians may insist that military leaders declare victory, but the rule of law is never reinstated and hostilities just go on and on.
These days with spin replacing truth, it is convenient and politically correct to call the use of military force against “persons and organizations” a WAR, but this is a legal-institutional impossibility. OK it’s a lie. It is this lie that has doomed our military efforts in Afghanistan from the beginning. Since “victory” is not possible, at least tell the truth and call it a police action taken against insurgents and criminals, and admit that the goal is actually a convincing show of force. That’s what cops do.
10:57 AM on 01/08/2010
Isn't the goal to kill as many non-white, non-christian, non-republicans as possible?
02:20 AM on 01/08/2010
From an ethnic stand point, the country is hardly just Afghans. The country, based on thousands of years of tradition and pure geo-politics, is fragmented into ethnic tribes. The last time a genuine unification of Afghani peoples was in effect was the one supported by the U.S against Russia. If this is the only way for them to seek unification, we may find ourselves a unified enemy in the ethnically diverse people we are desperately (and perhaps futilely) trying to unify across miles of desert and mountain.
photo
HamletsMill
All Myth is Astronomy
11:31 PM on 01/07/2010
"Most experts believe that if Afghanistan had a military solution, the Soviets would still be ruling it."

BINGO.
12:02 AM on 01/08/2010
You're right, of course, but what makes me go in circles is that Afghanistan was not our supposed goal. Al Queda was.

With one well planned raid we would have easily finished them off. Our status in the world would have been assured.

Our power would not again be so easily challenged.

We wouldn't have played right into bin ladens hands by bankrupting ourselves. (though Wall street and their bought politicians have succeeded that even beyond bin ladens fondest dreams.

I could go on and on as you I'm sure are well aware.

The bush administration will never go away until the harm they have done to this country goes away. That will not happen for generations, if ever.
photo
HamletsMill
All Myth is Astronomy
12:51 AM on 01/08/2010
See my post lower on the thread about the Tajiks vs Pashtuns. Yes. The damage incalculable. We survived Vietnam because all their combatants really wanted was for all foreign armies to leave. Afghanistan has another dimension. Many of the enemies we make will never cease striving to get nuclear weapons for their ultimate price: a thermonuclear car bomb detonated in NYC. That is where this will eventually go over the next 20-50 years. The technology exists for this ultimate end game. The only defense is if we can track nuclear signatures by satellite, local helicopter, or some other embedded device. I hope we can. Because this is where the battle lines will be eventually drawn. It will be the ultimate show down in a-symmetric warfare. Every thinking person on Earth knows this is where this is all going. Our current policies will not only NOT stop it but quite the opposite. Our policies of the last ten years as well as really the last thirty years will only hasten the day. This is it. These are the stakes in this poorly thought out sequence that is unfolding before all the world.
01:23 AM on 01/08/2010
Below is the only policy change that I can envision that can make us safer.

Everyone knows but will not admit that al queda’s goal is to get us out of the middle east.

Everyone knows that the only reason we are there is oil but even Obama will not admit it.

We are not there or anywhere else in this world for humanitarian reasons.

Helen Thomas at today’s white house briefing asked what their motive was.
I found Helen's frustrating 2 minutes here,

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2010/01/07/HP/R/28090/Pres+Obama+We+did+not+connect+the+dots+on+the+attempted+bombing.aspx starting about 19:00.

Mr Brennan's non answer sounded just like something GWB would say. Obviously, the question is considered a 3rd rail thing, by both Democrats and Republicans.

Let us beat our swords into fuel cells and our spears into windmills. The total for defense spending is between $859 billion and $1160 billion in 2009. Replace the Military-Industrial Complex with a Green Energy complex with just a portion of this and it will cost us nothing.

The cause of our wars is oil. No need for oil means there is no need for most wars. No wars, more money for progress toward better conditions, as in society or government.

We were able to switch from the gold standard to the oil standard and thrive.

I either want less corruption, or more chance to participate in it. — Ashleigh Brilliant
photo
Kache
Toodlum, wake up, I hear a prowler downstairs
03:27 AM on 01/08/2010
Everyone knows but will not admit that al queda’s goal is to get us out of the middle "east."

You are 180 degrees wrong. Al Queda's strategy is call "the far enemy" strategy. Pulling us into the "middle east" is essential to that strategy. That is what 911 was, a successful attempt to humiliate us into occupying a Moslem country so that the locals would rise up to oppose the occupation and do it through supporting our avowed enemy. It worked and is still working.

Don't take my word for it - I'm quoting bin Laden. The "far enemy strategy" he proposed in the late 90's split the global jihadist movement into two warring camps. When Ayman al-Zawahiri joined bin Laden he (and his group) was literally banished from Egypt by Egyptian jihadists.
10:32 PM on 01/07/2010
Without the support of the people the survival of a guerrilla movement becomes extremely vulnerable.

The opposite is true if the people do not support the government; a guerrilla movement becomes extremely effective.

We need to realize that in fighting terrorism we're fighting mainly ideas. We're not going to wipe these ideas out with a conventional army. Turning an illegitimate government into a legitimate one is simply beyond the capacities of foreigners.

The point is that they are, as General Petraeus points out, transnational terrorists." We would need to occupy not only Afghanistan but Pakistan, Somalia, North Korea, Uzbekistan, and countless other small African and Southeast Asian countries. His argument to stay does not make sense unless we are willing to invade every country including our own that has terror cells.

Afghanistan, for a moment, was ground zero in our war on terror. We lost our chance at Tora Bora to do what we originally went to Afghanistan for.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp The Bush administration has concluded that Osama bin Laden was present during the battle for Tora Bora …. and that failure to commit U.S. ground troops to hunt him was its gravest error in the war against al Qaeda, according to civilian and military officials with first-hand knowledge.

We cannot turn back the clock.

Biden is right in favoring a strategy that directly targets al-Qaida fighters. That was our goal before mission creep, and we should return to it.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
09:22 PM on 01/07/2010
I know this is a bit simplistic but....

Has anyone ever tried to squeeze a balloon full of water? You apply pressure at one point and it pops up at another point. Move troops from one part of Afghanistan to another and guess what happens?

Told ya it was simplistic.

Itchy.
09:08 PM on 01/07/2010
It is so great to hear a reasoned and informed discussion about Afghanistan. It is this sort of discussion that is so sorely lacking in the western media and politics. All the solutions proposed for Afghanistan do not take into consideration a single Afghan voice or opinion. Thank you for the article.
06:14 PM on 01/07/2010
The author is 100% correct.

There will never be a military solution in Afghanistan. Only a political solution.

If I were the President, after our troop build up I would issue only one non negotiable demand.

That who ever is hiding bin Ladin. Zawahiri and the rest of the al Qaida leadership give them up.

Nearly every other issue would then be negotiable.
01:29 AM on 01/08/2010
good luck with that one.
05:20 PM on 01/07/2010
re."The only way to break the current deadlock is diplomacy and negotiation. "

All the good will in the world is meaningless if Taliban and Al Qaeda believe that they're winning militarily.
08:58 PM on 01/07/2010
It's harder to get new converts if the "enemy" the USA is behaving in a reasonable and compassionate manner.

Hearts and Minds.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
ErnestineBass
No longer a cog in The Machine.
09:24 PM on 01/07/2010
Perhaps you need to ask yourself, "Why would ordinary Afghans, whose country is currently being occupied by American and NATO troops, want to join forces with the Taliban or AQ?".
10:33 PM on 01/07/2010
You can ask the same question why Northern Alliance, an organization of Afghans were able to defeat Taliban regular forces in just a few weeks.