2013-05-23T12:18:41-04:00 Adla Massoud http://www.huffingtonpost.com/author/index.php?author=adla-massoud Copyright 2008, HuffingtonPost.com, Inc. HuffingtonPost Blogger Feed for Adla Massoud Good old fashioned elbow grease. tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.818694 2011-02-04T11:28:22-05:00 2011-05-25T18:30:24-04:00

Adla Massoud http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adla-massoud/
Inspired by the Internet-savvy Egyptian protesters, an online campaign called for anti-government demonstrations Friday and Saturday in the Syrian capital Damascus. Facebook is banned in Syria but can be accessed through proxies.

"After Friday prayers, February 4 is the first day of anger for the proud Syrian people. Comprehensive civil disobedience in all cities," reads one of the pages on Facebook, titled "The Syrian Revolution 2011."

It's not clear if the Syrian people themselves are ready to rise up and what impact these pages will actually have on the ground. But Syria's President Bashar Al-Assad, who took over from his father Hafez al-Assad in 2000, has zero tolerance for protests. He runs historically the most ruthless Arab dictatorship in the region.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, believes the Syrian regime is very tough and "It will try to nip any demonstrations in the bud."

The younger Assad has not yet gone as far as his father did in responding to internal opposition in Syria. In 1982 when insurgents took to the streets in the Syrian city of Hama, Hafez Al Assad unleashed a ferocious attack in order to quell a revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood. An estimated 17,000 to 40,000 people were killed.

The 'Hama Massacre' has been described as possibly being "the single deadliest act by any Arab government against its own people in the modern Middle East."

Middle East expert Fouad Ajami of Johns Hopkins University told PBS's Charlie Rose on January 31: "For about 25 years the Arab people have been terrified of their rulers and the security states have really marginalized them and demolished their sense of dignity."

Landis does not think Assad will suffer from the same fate as Egypt's Mubarak and Tunisia's Ben Ali.

"Syrians have been traumatized by the violence and chaos of Iraq. The presence of almost one million Iraqi refugees has chastened Syrians. They understand the dangers of regime collapse in a religiously divided society."

"No Syrian wants to risk civil war. Freedom in Iraq has spelled disaster for the country's minorities, both Sunnis and Christian. Iraq provides a cautionary tale for Syria's minorities in particular."

Let's not underestimate the power of the people. After 23 years, nobody expected the Tunisian people to overthrow Ben Ali and his authoritarian regime.

According to Assad, the domino effect with unrest spreading from Egypt and Tunisia to Syria is unlikely in Syria because his country is different.

"Syria is stable. Why?" Mr. Assad told the WSJ, "Because you have to be very closely linked to the beliefs of the people. This is the core issue."

He claims his people will not revolt against him because his anti-American position and confrontation with Israel have endeared him with the grassroots in Syria.

Chatham House's Middle East Expert, Nadim Shehadi, says the Syrian President is in denial.

"Syria has been under emergency laws since 1963 and the excuse has always been the conflict with Israel. I am not sure how much the population still buys these arguments."

He adds: "In fact the Assad regime bears the most similarities to that of Saddam Hussein and there was also solace that things are so bad in Iraq that nobody in Syria would even think of toppling him. This kind of reasoning is so last week, I am sure most Arab leaders are reviewing their story and how they assert their legitimacy to their population."

Assad is also talking reform. But how seriously can we take him?

With 32 percent of the Syrian population living on $2 a day or less, the Syrian government announced on January 17th, a $250 million aid plan to help 420,000 impoverished families.

On the political front, the Syrian president also promised to push through political reforms this year for municipal elections, grant more power to non-governmental organizations and establish a new media law.

Can true democracy prevail in the Middle East? Nobody knows. After over half a century of tyranny, one thing is for sure: the Arab people will no longer accept what they used to accept and will no longer remain silent. ]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.809580 2011-01-15T18:02:08-05:00 2011-05-25T18:25:24-04:00

Adla Massoud http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adla-massoud/
"If leaders don't offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum," she said. "Extremist elements, terrorist groups and others who would prey on desperation and poverty are already out there appealing for allegiance and competing for influence."

A day later, following weeks of violent protest, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia's president for more than 23 years, ceded power as he fled to Saudi Arabia.

After generations of apathy and stagnation, the Arab people are finally rising up. As we witnessed with the self-immolation of a 26-year-old fruit vendor in the city of Sidi Bouzid, whose actions provoked a massive wave of demonstrations and rioting. And it took us all by surprise including the Tunisian government.

Mohamed Bouazizi, the young man who set himself on fire was a university graduate who, like so many others, was unable to find decent employment.

He tried to make a living selling fruit, but even that proved impossible when the police stopped him from selling without a permit. In desperation he decided to end his life in a symbolic gesture.

And also with Hamada Ben Amour, a 22-year-old rapper who was arrested for releasing a song on the internet titled 'President, your people are dying' that talks about the problems of the youth and unemployment.

The song came out as students, professionals and youths mounted a series of protests over a shortage of jobs and restrictions on public freedoms.

Abdel Bari Atwan, editor of the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi, says Tunisian people deserved to be thanked twice: "for proving that the Arab street is not dead as many had expected and is capable of waging an intifada and making sacrifices for change, and for exposing the Arab regimes that claimed to care about human rights and the values of justice and democracy."

With the emergence of a large layer of educated youth who have no job prospects and no future, the Arab people have reached a boiling point.

They have had enough of chronic unemployment; economic deprivation; rising food prices; insufficient public investment; rampant corruption; and an authoritarian political system that gave Ben Ali twenty three years of corrupt rule.

In Egypt, the President Hosni Mubarak will have held power for three decades this year, and is getting set for another term. In Libya, Muammar Gadaffi has been in power since 1969. The Assads have ruled Syria since 1970.

"The widespread demonstrations in Tunisia" writes political analyst Rami Khouri "mirror a universal pattern of change by citizens who reach a breaking point and go out into the street to brave the bullets of the eternal ruler's military and security services. When citizens are no longer afraid of the ruler's bullets, the ruler's days are numbered."

Chatham House' Middle East expert Nadim Shehadi says, "It was an unsustainable economic and political model that has survived for over 30 years and with numerous equivalents in the region. Its persistence has done countless damage and its demise will hopefully serve as an example."

The biggest challenge facing the Arab world today is youth unemployment. The region has the highest unemployment rate in the world. The current unemployment rate stands at sixteen per cent, eighty per cent of that figure is made up of a youth population of 130 million. A staggering twenty five percent of youth between the ages of 15 and 29 are unemployed.

According to the Economic World Bank Report of the Arab world, Arab states need to create 100 million jobs by 2020 to meet the needs of the young people entering the job market. With a population of 85 million people, Egypt needs to create at least one million new jobs for the more than 750,000 young people entering the employment market each year.

Unemployment is affecting over 20 million people in the Arab world. This situation has also increased poverty rates, which is estimated to affect some 50 percent of the total population in the Arab world.

Unlike China who knew how to develop a booming economy even under its communist umbrella, the Arab regimes' shortsightedness has failed to move the region economically and politically forward.

With Tunisia's spontaneous revolution, maybe true Arab secular democracy will finally emerge.

Let's see what happens.]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2010:/theblog//3.752787 2010-10-06T13:38:38-04:00 2011-05-25T17:55:20-04:00

Adla Massoud http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adla-massoud/
The bickering between the opposition group led by Hezbollah and the March 14 bloc all boils down to the Special Tribunal of Lebanon (STL). Even though the indictments have not been issued yet and no individual or party has been officially accused of the murder, rumors have been swirling around that the party of God - Hezbollah - is implicated in the 2005 assassination of ex-premier Rafiq Hariri and 22 others.

Hezbollah launched its own preemptive campaign to discredit the U.N. appointed Special Tribunal for Lebanon and blames Israel.

Meanwhile, Syria is officially back on the Lebanese political scene and the STL's credibility is slowly diminishing.

It issued on Sunday 33 arrest warrants against judges, officers, politicians and journalists of Lebanese, Arab and other nationalities who are named in a lawsuit filed in a Syrian court by a one-time Lebanese suspect in the assassination case.

The one-time Lebanese suspect is former director of General Security Major General Jamil al-Sayyed, who was among four pro-Syrian officers jailed without charge for nearly four years during events surrounding the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri.

He was arrested, upon former head of the UN investigation into the Hariri assassination Detlev Mehlis' request, along with the country's three other top security officials later that year, for suspicion of involvement in the murder.

Several high level Syrian government officials were also implicated - including President Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who at the time was chief of the Syrian intelligence service. Syria has always denied involvement in the assassination and it looks unlikely that members of the Assad entourage will be indicted.

But Mehlis' two successors shrouded their investigations in secrecy until the four officers were released in April 2009 by STL Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare, only one month before the establishment of the UN-backed tribunal. Even the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention in March 2008 called the four generals' detention without charge "arbitrary" and "unjust."

Seen as a political ally of Hezbollah, Sayyed claims Hariri fabricated false witnesses in the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL).

He called Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri a liar, threatened violence in the streets of Beirut and urged all patriotic Lebanese to topple his government.

A raft of high profile politicians have weighed in on the debate an growing crisis, including Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who once blamed Syria but is now cozying up again to Bashar Al Assad.

Regarding the arrest warrants issued by Syria, Jumblatt told the Lebanese media: "The guilty should be punished and the innocent should be declared so. What happened is very good."

Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces (LF) and an ally of Saad Hariri, said that attempts to abolish a UN-backed tribunal probing the assassination of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri were part of a coup against the Lebanese state.

In the meantime, Lebanon's Prime Minister Saad Hariri finds himself in a precarious situation of trying to honor the STL and run a fragile government.

The Sunni leader, who recently tried to mend relations with Syria by stating he had been wrong in accusing Syria of his father's murder, reaffirmed his commitment to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) over the killing of his father and defied Hezbollah's demand that Lebanon officially accuse Israel of the murder.

It's going to take a very creative mind to get Lebanon out of this mess. ]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2010:/theblog//3.557680 2010-04-29T17:48:19-04:00 2011-05-25T16:20:27-04:00

Adla Massoud http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adla-massoud/
The "Laique Pride" march called for the full implementation of article (c) of the Lebanese Constitution's preamble: "Respect for the freedom of opinion and belief," "social justice," and "equality of rights and duties between all citizens without discrimination or preference."

They also protested against Lebanon's civil-status laws, which are dealt with in confessional courts, meaning decisions on marriage, divorce and inheritance can only be made in line with religious guidelines.

Lebanon has long been mired in conflict and setback due to sectarian antagonism in the country. And successive governments have been in effect run by tribal chiefs dressed in suits. During its civil war, people were pulled from their cars and executed on the basis of the religion listed on their ID papers. Despite promises of deeply needed reforms in its political structure and governing arrangement, the country remains mired in political inertia.

How can we create 'national unity' in a multi-religious society wherein religion is inscribed as the citizen's most important public attribute -- stamped prominently on his or her identification and voter registration card?

Although The Taif Accord of 1989 -- amended at the end of the civil war -- stipulates that Lebanon must move toward abolishing political sectarianism, furtive attempts by the country's President Michel Suleiman and Parliament speaker Nabih Berri to do so earlier this year were completely ignored.

In 1997, former President Elias Hrawi tried to break the sectarian system by encouraging its citizens to marry outside their sect and by taking from the mosque and the church the huge incomes they made from marriages and divorce settlements.

But late Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri opposed it, as did the religious establishment. A year later, Hrawi dropped the initiative, and a civil marriage law has been off the country's political agenda since.

Religious institutions are powerful in Lebanon. At birth, each citizen in the country is legally categorized into one of Lebanon's 18 officially recognized religious sects: from the Greek Catholics to the Sunnis, Jews, Shiites, Maronites, Druze or the Greek Orthodox.

This tiny Levantine country -- the size of the state of Connecticut -- has about 4 million inhabitants, gathered into more than six hundred towns and villages. The various religions and sects live together and practice in close proximity. And they all swear by their religion first then by their country.

Since independence in 1943, Lebanon's president has always been a Maronite Christian, its prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and its speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.

This was the result of a series of consultations between Bechara al-Khoury, a Maronite, and Riad al-Solh, a Sunni, who became the first president and prime minister of Lebanon respectively.

At the time of independence, both Christians and Muslims were insecure about their positions in the new country. After a degree of protection and autonomy under the Ottomans and the French, many Christians were afraid that Lebanon would be swallowed up by its Muslim neighbors.

Many Muslims, on the other hand, resented the separation from Syria, and were concerned that Christian ties to France in particular would lead to the continuation of Western hegemony in the country.

Unfortunately the system has not evolved since 1943's unwritten National Pact and many wonder how can democracy truly flourish when representation on the national level is still determined by religious quota?

It is easier said than done. Some think there is no public trust that under a secular electoral system people would vote for the best qualified politicians and ignore leaders of their own sect.

There is no agreement on the role of Lebanese Diaspora in nation building. Determining who should vote in future national elections could turn into a sectarian "fight."

Finally, secularizing implies loss of privilege to the religious establishment. The clergy wield immense political power; they profit from regulating daily life in education, politics, marriage, death and inheritance.

Nonetheless, these secular supporters are a tiny minority in a region that has increasingly become defined by religion. And should secularism ever see the day of light, it would result in a new political balance and reality that many Arab leaders fear.]]>