2013-05-21T14:01:11-04:00 Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/author/index.php?author=kimberly-abbott Copyright 2008, HuffingtonPost.com, Inc. HuffingtonPost Blogger Feed for Kimberly Abbott Good old fashioned elbow grease. tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.3001483 2013-04-03T17:32:10-04:00 2013-04-03T17:32:12-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
"Wait, I wanna do something," he said.

I stopped and watched him scale another sculpture shaped like a skateboard half pike, and pretend that he was skating. He jumped off the highest point -- his specialty -- and grinned at me sideways.

Then he climbed back up and sat watching the other boys play. The sun was setting behind him and I was thinking that the moment couldn't be more perfect.

But what he did next proved me wrong. He shot off the sculpture and sprinted toward the center of the lawn where the others were playing, snaking through them, then around them. He inserted himself in their play. Almost.

After testing the waters, he circled back to his solitary statue and jumped off it a few more times, glancing over his shoulder at the other boys as he did. He wanted to show them that he could match them, trying to impress them with his easy agility and strength. A few more jumps and he ran back again, this time climbing onto the structure and facing another boy, looking him right in the eye, grinning from ear to ear. He lingered a minute, but didn't say anything before bounding back to me.

I asked if he wanted help with some words to ask if he could play with them.

"I don't WANT to play with them. HUH!" he said emphatically, crossing his arms and literally stomping his foot. But his eyes were alight when he watched them and I knew he was summoning the courage to talk to them.

My heart swelled and broke simultaneously. I wanted to help him and had to resist approaching the ringleader to ask if my boy could play too. Even though he is only five and -- hopefully -- far from the years that my mere existence will utterly embarrass him, I knew he didn't want me to interfere.

He returned to me and although I desperately wanted to dissect what just happened, I slipped back into our conversation about mysteries and books. The entire episode was only about 15 minutes. But in that short time, I saw so many of the struggles he has faced and will face, the difficulty talking to other children, the deep desire to be a part of the fun but the "natural" inability to do so. I also saw how far he has come, his tenacity, his courage and his strength.

I knew he was pleased with himself too. Maybe next time he will join in. I have a feeling he will.]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.2552571 2013-01-25T18:56:12-05:00 2013-03-27T05:12:01-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
He didn't want to go to this party (or many others before it), and I struggled with whether I should force him to socialize or let him hang out at home with the comfy stuffed animals that he uses to meet his sensory needs, or let him play our weekend's 12th game of Monopoly. After some discussion about what it means to be a friend, he finally agreed to try the party, "for a little while."

This was a 'drop off' event, where parents could stay or go.

"You would never choose to leave, would you?" he asked.

"Of course not," I assured him.

The truth is, I couldn't drop him at a party, or anywhere, even if I wanted to. He has Asperger's Syndrome, a condition on the autism spectrum that makes social skills difficult. In my child, it also manifests as extreme anxiety. It is at times like this -- a birthday party -- that his condition is most evident. When we're alone, or he is around people who" get" him, he is funny, charming and joyful. He has the intelligence and insight of someone far beyond his years; his understanding of his world is so profound that I often forget that I'm talking to a child.

When we got to the train station, my boy took one glance around, shot me a look that said, "I told you so," spotted the phone booth and made a bee-line to his new refuge, with barely a glance at the birthday boy. A half hour later, I coaxed him out and we retreated to a room where a giant model train was set up. It was quieter and darker than the party room, and easier on my boy's extremely sensitive eyes and ears. I stuck close by, a hand resting firmly on his shoulder as several children elbowed their way in front of him for a better view of the model. He stood, leaning his body into mine, peering through the glass display at the tiny train town and the still-lit Christmas tree, asking a soft, steady stream of questions about this or that feature. Even though he didn't run away -- his natural instinct -- when the other kids crowded in, I could feel the tension in his neck and see the pace of his breath quicken as his tiny chest rose and fell. He was anxious. His brain isn't wired to process the kind of unruliness that surrounded him, but he was trying hard to stick it out.

Instead, he thrives in order. His structured universe includes a specialized private school with brilliant teachers, supportive parents and wonderful children; an occupational therapist; a neurologist; a psychologist; a nutritionist; clued-in karate instructors; a music teacher to nurture his very musical mind; and a gymnastics coach who works on social skills while building tunnels and imaginary dragons, all while jumping on a trampoline. He also has a wonderful pediatrician who has known him since he was an hour old, and who has urged us to avoid labels and understand that all children have "a little of this, a little of that."

Everyone on his 'team', which also includes devoted grandparents, close friends and a loving nanny, is working hard to coax him into a world where he will feel safe and is allowed to be himself. There are strangers -- in grocery stores, coffeehouses and bookstores -- who find his personality endearing and engage him on his level, but others don't have the patience for the verbal barrage that inevitably comes when he is interested in something, which is everything. We try to find the former as often as possible, and quite often do.

We're lucky. We were accepted into a unique school with a mile-long waiting list that specializes in kids with pervasive development disorder, ADHD, sensory processing disorder, and anything else that would make it hard to excel in a mainstream classroom. There is no financial aid, and tuition rivals that of a good liberal arts college. However, since staring there, his confidence has soared.

We're also fortunate that we received a diagnosis when he was just 4, which provides a framework for navigating the confusing path of caring for him. We knew early on that something was not quite right -- his extreme sensitivities, fear of large crowds and rhythmic pacing around the living room seemed to go beyond quirkiness. His separation anxiety increased with age rather than the reverse, and testing when he was three revealed a genius-level IQ.

Still, armed with all this information, we found very few places to turn. While researchers and advocates are working furiously to find the cause of autism spectrum and related disorders, the resources for those on the front lines raising these children is dismal. We spent a year each on waiting lists at two major hospitals to see specialists. The public school system simply saw a bright kid who didn't meet their requirements for special assistance. Doctors recommended occupational therapy to help with his fine motor, executive functioning and proprioceptive skills. But it stopped there.

It was only through a steady stream of networking, word-of-mouth and good parenting blogs that we've pieced together a plan of support for him. And despite his progress, we still have many daily struggles; we are only at the beginning of our journey. I can't help but wonder what is happening to the thousands of other children who are diagnosed each year -- and those who are undiagnosed -- who haven't found the same resources. I am certain that too many children are falling through the cracks.

After an hour at the train station party, an employee noticed him eyeing something behind the ticket counter, and offered to show him around. The man calmly explained how the station was restored, showed him old stamps and tickets, explained the railway system and the destinations and let him open and close the ticket window. I could see my boy relaxing with each bit of information, and soon, he began peppering the man with questions. He had found his comfort zone.

Last year at this time, the birthday party would have been a sweat-inducing experience at a minimum, and probably would have included some tears -- from both of us -- and a quick exit. There might have been a meltdown, and there definitely would have been some sideways glances and low murmurs from other parents.

I'm not sure whether he has matured, if I have, or if it's both of us. I've stopped trying to figure out that part, and instead, I'm slowly learning his world alongside him, and taking it one deep breath at a time.

By the time we said our good-byes, he had calmed down enough to look at his hosts directly and say "Thank you for inviting me!" We left before the birthday cake was served, but nonetheless, the success of this party was pretty sweet.

]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1979869 2012-10-18T18:16:35-04:00 2012-12-18T05:12:02-05:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
Indeed, a number of developments on the ground give this round of negotiations a shot at real success. To start, the government of President Santos (and President Uribe before him) has crippled the FARC militarily -- killing several of its leaders, pushing them out of urban areas, and damaging the group's ability to communicate. In addition, Santos has begun to respond to many of the underlying grievances that have fueled the FARC insurgency by instituting political reforms in areas such as land restitution and victims' rights. These moves have shown a willingness to compromise that make the FARC's case that war is the only option far less compelling.

This has created new incentives for the FARC, too, to come to the negotiating table. The government's campaign has heavily damaged their military structure and capacity and made it ever clearer that change will not come about through military means. There is also an awareness that over the years FARC's political ideology has grown more and more distant from reality.

Equally, it has become clear that a military option alone is not feasible. Without a comprehensive settlement -- achieved through talks -- the FARC will remain a military menace, albeit on a lesser scale, holding back Colombia's development.

The Santos administration and the FARC have agreed on a set of issues to be addressed in Oslo, including agricultural policy, economic and social development and the political participation of FARC members after they lay down their arms. Civil society groups and NGOs will also be able to convey their views on these key issues to the negotiators.

While there is reason to be hopeful, negotiations also face several obstacles.

First, a number of Colombian politicians, led by former president Álvaro Uribe, oppose talks and are clinging to the belief that the conflict is winnable militarily. Second, some officers within Colombia's military may oppose the talks, reasoning that a peaceful solution would mean cuts to the military budget and the slow erosion of its influence. Third, criminal gangs, known in Colombia as BACRIM, are loathe to see an agreement reached between the government and the FARC for fear that they could become the next government target. Equally, some members of the FARC may want to perpetuate the civil conflict to keep the money flowing from drug trafficking and extortion. Finally, addressing in full the grievances of FARC -- particularly those concerning social inequities -- will prove a considerable challenge to the Colombian state, but essential to sustainable peace.

I spoke last week with Mark Schneider, the International Crisis Group's Senior Vice-President and Special Adviser on Latin America about what to expect in this week's negotiations in Oslo between the Colombian government and the FARC. Listen to our conversation below.

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Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
Central Asia provides a textbook example of the damage that endemic corruption does to a country. The education and health systems in places like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, for example, are nearing total collapse. Many teachers leave in the middle of the school year in favor of better-compensated jobs as migrant laborers in Russia. Rates of unemployment are extreme, especially in Tajikistan, where the economy scrapes by on remittances from workers abroad in Russia. Rural areas there are hardest hit -- some might receive just an hour of electricity a day in the winter. Here and elsewhere in the region, the capitals fare better, but only because leaders have learned to prevent angry crowds in the centers of power.

For now, the United States is the most visible external power in Central Asia, with critical supply routes running through the region into and out of Afghanistan in what is called the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). The Pentagon expanded these lines after tensions with Pakistan shut down routes into southern and eastern Afghanistan. But as the United States begins to withdraw from Afghanistan, there will be a window of opportunity for other powers to stretch an arm of influence into Central Asia. Russia, the traditional outside power in the region, would like to maintain what it calls its "privileged relations" in the region. It has neither the money to win over regional leaders, nor the troops to protect them, however, should the need arise.

China, on the other hand, is on the way up, and is likely to be the predominant external force in Central Asia after the U.S. and NATO complete their drawdown. China is likely to establish roots in Central Asia after the U.S. completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan, scheduled for late 2014. China's interests center on the region's abundant natural resources, in particular oil and gas. And China alone possesses the technical and financial capability to exploit these resources on a large scale. But it may also find itself charged with shoring up the security of some of the most vulnerable Central Asian states.

Beyond corruption, Central Asia's most chronic problem may well be Afghanistan. During the United States' long war in South Asia, Central Asian fighters joined the Taliban insurgency, providing a security reprieve for weak states like Tajikistan. As the war ends, those fighters may return home, with unpredictable but potentially volatile results.

Looking forward, the Chinese government must improve its clumsy and insensitive labor and environmental policies if it wants to stay in Central Asia for the long term. The Chinese may also find themselves pulled into the region's corruption and security concerns -- for instance, some analysts fear that radical Islamist fighters in Afghanistan could spread north, even as far as China's Xinjiang province.

I spoke with Paul Quinn-Judge, Deputy Asia Director for the International Crisis Group, about what to expect in Central Asia in the coming years. Listen to our conversation here.]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.1067928 2011-10-31T16:00:43-04:00 2011-12-31T05:12:01-05:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
The torrent of narcotics, weapons and foreign money flowing through Guatemala's borders complicates the ongoing process of democratic state-building. Wealthy and well-armed cartels take advantage of Guatemala's weak police and judiciary systems, bribing and threatening judges, prosecutors, bureaucrats and police officers. Cartels also influence electoral outcomes via campaign contributions to pliable candidates. In a recent report, Drug Trafficking and Violence, Crisis Group reported that at least some government officials have cooperated with organized crime, particularly on the local level.

Widespread poverty and marginalization among Guatemala's indigenous communities exacerbates the country's vulnerability to traffickers. High unemployment and poor social services create an ample pool of cheap, disposable labor for gangs and cartels. While Guatemala's economy is expanding steadily, the state must intervene to ensure that the benefits of this growth reach people in rural areas, especially youth.

Guatemala has taken some recent steps to shore up its institutions against the influence of traffickers, including prosecuting corrupt officials with the help of the International Commission Against Impunity (CICIG). Most of Guatemala's major politicians pay lip service to anti-trafficking reforms, but fundamental reforms have yet to take place. Whoever wins the 6 November second round of the presidential race, a first test will be whether they support the anti-corruption efforts of Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz, the work of Helen Mack and national police reform and the CICIG. Guatemala must act more vigorously to strengthen its law enforcement and legal institutions to combat the corrupt and violent influence of drug cartels and organized crime. The more time they have to deepen their social roots, the harder cartels will be to eradicate and the greater danger they will pose to Guatemala's future.

But the onus does not lie only with Guatemala. As the primary market for narcotics trafficked through Central America, the United States must do more to combat domestic drug consumption, and offer serious assistance to the Guatemalan government in its efforts to keep the drug trade at bay.

I spoke with Mark Schneider, Crisis Group's Senior Vice President and Special Advisor on Latin America, about how Guatemala can roll back the growing threat of drug-related violence and corruption. Listen to our conversation below.

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Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
International onlookers breathed a sigh of relief when the EU brokered an eleventh-hour compromise, leading RS leaders to shelve the referendum proposal. Yet Republika Srpska's ongoing tendency toward political and institutional separatism threatens Bosnia's stability.

It is clear that neither the US nor the EU would accept an independent Republika Srpska--and it is likely that any concrete move towards secession would provoke a violent reaction from Sarajevo. Yet Crisis Group has reported that RS citizens in general favor independence. Serbs feel alienated from the state that, they say, has asked them to shoulder the bulk of responsibility for the Balkan Wars of the 1990s. 



The popular RS President Milorad Dodic has attempted to bridge this gap between expectations and reality with small measures that chip away at the central state's institutions, in turn making it more difficult for these institutions to function. And unlike President Tadic of Serbia, Dodic has yet to issue any formal apology for past war crimes, forestalling the kind of national reconciliation that could help build a successfully federated state.

Post-war economic growth and reconstruction in Republika Srpska and the rest of BiH mask a reality of lingering wartime trauma, which runs deep in the social psyches of both populations. Divisive moves from Republika Srpska like last spring's referendum proposal only intensify existing resentments.

In place of separatist brinksmanship, RS should rely on the EU mediation process--which has proven successful in the past--to help resolve ongoing disputes about the role of BiH institutions in the political, legal and economic life of Republika Srpska.

Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group's Europe Program Director, spoke with me about what has changed since Dayton ended the Bosnian war--and how old tensions have persisted in disrupting the governance of Bosnia. Listen to our conversation below.

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Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
Underpinning this sudden bloodshed are escalations of force and rhetoric on both sides, even as the prospect of a new Turkish constitution raises questions about the place of Turkish Kurds and their nationalist leadership within the Turkish state. The Turkish government has taken a tougher line against the Turkish Kurd insurgents of the PKK, while the Turkish PKK has resurrected tactics of kidnapping and killing civilians and off-duty Turkish officers and policemen. A pro-PKK faction has also resumed bombing tourist resorts and cities.

The current escalation ends a protracted period of relative calm and hope of a new social and political contract between the Turkish state and its fifteen percent Kurdish community. Broad swathes of Southeastern Turkey, once no-go zones where Kurdish insurgents clashed weekly with state forces, have undergone extraordinary normalization and economic growth over the past ten years.

Moreover, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), has implemented several small reforms to create a parallel "normalization" of Kurdish culture in Turkey. The new 24-hour Kurdish television and legalizing the use of Kurdish language in political campaigns may seem a small step on the road to full universal rights for Turkish Kurds, but these reforms are vital components of an influential yet incomplete effort to win over the Kurdish population.

The PKK has also evolved over the past two decades, with its leadership abandoning the goal of an independent sovereign Kurdistan in favor of what they call "democratic autonomy". However their demands -- mother language education, an end to all legal ethnic discrimination, and decentralization that would lend greater power to municipalities in Kurdish areas -- are sometimes couched in vague and ambivalent language that seems separatist to western Turkish public opinion. Kurds themselves are split roughly equally between support for the Turkish Kurd nationalist party, which shares many of these goals with the leftist PKK, and support for the more conservative, religious-minded, pro-business Justice and Development Party.

Both the Turkish PKK and the Turkish state should desist from violence, and both should temper their rhetoric in order to avoid further escalation. The Turkish government must take immediate steps to end formalized discrimination against Kurds, including jump-starting the process of constitutional reform. Now that the legal Turkish Kurd nationalist party has agreed to take up 30 of the seats it won in the June elections, the ruling party must engage them in their reform efforts. The hard-line Kurdish leadership has already run into considerable Kurdish criticism for its attacks of the past three month, but a settlement can only be reached when reasonable Kurdish claims for equality are recognized, and the program of Kurdish "normalization" revitalized.

I spoke with Hugh Pope, Crisis Group's Project Director for Turkey and Cyprus. He is based in Istanbul. You can listen to our conversation below.

]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.916133 2011-08-02T12:38:45-04:00 2011-10-02T05:12:02-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
The fighting was the culmination of months of heightened tensions that began after November elections, and ended only when China, which has significant economic interests in Myanmar and a stake in ensuring stability along the border, stepped in. Whether the army's provocation was just a local fight or part of a larger strategic move against ethnic groups remains unclear, as does the future of the country.

Previously a straight military government, Myanmar's new government is now ostensibly under civilian leadership, providing an opportunity for collaboration with western countries. However, the elections were neither free nor fair and kept the existing regime's Union Solidarity and Development Party in power. With top-ranking members of parliament drawn from the party's ranks and one quarter of its seats reserved for the military, there is little room for opposition voices.

Nevertheless, there have been positive developments since the election. Two top military leaders stepped down, opening up key posts. Ethnic groups now have a small say at the local level, allowing more space for political activity and criticism.

Previously, discussion of subjects such as political prisoners and slow registration of NGOs were taboo, but since the election the government has at least acknowledged these issues. The government has slightly eased censorship of the press, and NGOs in certain fields -- such as environmentalism, health and rural development -- have been given more room.

One of the new government's goals is to try to improve the livelihoods of its rural poor in the long-term, which dovetails with Western countries' trend toward increasing development aid. Aid workers can now work with ethnic and subnational groups in ceasefire areas, and help them accomplish their goals without further violence.

I spoke with Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group's South East Asia Project Director, about the current situation in Myanmar. Listen to our conversation below.

]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.899908 2011-07-15T13:16:29-04:00 2011-09-14T05:12:01-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
South Sudan's declaration of independence from "North" Sudan closes another chapter in the decades-long civil war between the two regions, and many hope with it will come lasting peace. But tensions remain as key issues between the north and south have yet to be resolved. The next few months are vital to determining the success of the world's newest country.

Despite mutual hostility and mistrust, the two Sudans remain linked and inter-dependent. The North and the South should already have agreed on a host of post-separation matters such as shared natural resource management (oil, water, grazing rights, etc); allocation of the country's $38 billion debt and assets; the status of the contested Abyei area; citizenship for Southerners who still live and work in the North and vice versa; trade; as well as border demarcation and security arrangements necessary for peaceful cooperation.

The most important issue remains negotiating a new formula for allocating the South's oil revenue. Both countries are highly reliant on oil. It was reportedly the source of about nearly a third of Khartoum's revenue, and an astounding 98 per cent of Juba's income. Nearly Eighty per cent of the oil is in the South, but it is entirely reliant on the North's infrastructure to export it. Ultimately, however, the South's success hinges on whether it can develop other industries, such as agriculture. Indeed, such development could turn South Sudan into the breadbasket of Africa.

There are other concerns also, in particular citizenship of southerners living in the north and northerners living in the south. The North and South have not finalized details about the south's new currency or how they will share outstanding debts. It also has yet to form trade and financial agreements with the north, which are vital to peaceful interaction between the two countries.
Not only must the South finalize its foreign affairs, but it must also focus on domestic issues. Its draft constitution, signed July 7, is not as democratic as some had hoped. South Sudan can increase its chances of stability by making its government more inclusive.

Much remains to be done to ensure South Sudan's success. I spoke with EJ about what should happen after the secession. Listen to our conversation below.

]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.888943 2011-07-01T16:27:19-04:00 2011-08-31T05:12:01-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
Conditions in the camps are worsening. Cholera outbreaks are a daily threat. Dozens have already died in summer floods, trapped in flimsy tents that were not built to withstand the unforgiving storms. Insecurity and impunity have created an atmosphere primed for crime and banditry, and have contributed to an alarming increase in sexual violence against women. Even when complaints are filed, police rarely follow through with investigations, in part because of a lack of resources. More UN and Haitian National Police are urgently needed to patrol the camps in and around the capital, Port-au-Prince.

Martelly also faces the additional challenge of a divisive political class that seems unaware that this is Haiti's moment of truth. Rather than rallying around the cause of reconstruction, much of Haiti's political leadership has engaged in unproductive partisan maneuvering. This was seen mere months after Martelly took office, when parliament rejected the president's pick for prime minister.

Resettling the remaining earthquake refugees will mean reconstruction on a massive scale, but rebuilding has been stymied, despite billions in aid. Donors, the international community and the government of Haiti have failed to agree on a comprehensive resettlement strategy, and the government has dithered on allocating land for construction. The task is complicated by the need to build more durable communities, able to withstand the next natural disaster.

Unless Haiti's government prioritizes reconstruction and resettlement, conditions in the camps are likely to continue deteriorating--but that doesn't mean that Haiti is on its own. Once Martelly's administration adopts a workable, national resettlement policy, the international community should commit to funding a substantial portion of it, and deliver.

I spoke with Mark Schneider, Crisis Group's Senior Vice President and Special Adviser on Latin America, about the challenges facing President Martelly. Click below for the audio of our conversation. For more on Haiti, check out the new report from the International Crisis Group, Post-quake Haiti: Security Depends on Resettlement and Development.

]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.887834 2011-06-30T12:32:29-04:00 2011-08-30T05:12:01-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/ report on the subject.

In recent months, terrorist groups such as the Taliban, Hizb-e-Islami and the Haqqani Network have gained ground in and around the capital in addition to their traditional strongholds in the south. They have increased the size and scope of their attacks, and have faced few, if any, consequences. Support among the public has also grown, in large part because of the Afghan government's weakness and inability to provide many basic services.

The year-and-a-half-long troop surge, contrary to its intended purpose, also played a role in bolstering insurgent groups outside the capital. It led to the insurgency's growth in the north and central provinces, where it has also connected with the local governments.

The government's impotence and the staggering insecurity in Afghanistan have left officials with much to gain from partnering with insurgents. Smuggling has become the most profitable form of business for insurgents and officials alike, who transfer drugs and minerals to Pakistan and other countries for processing.

It would be impossible for the traffickers to operate without the help of local officials. For a share of the profits, authorities turn a blind eye to insurgent activities or create diversions that allow them to transfer their goods. The huge influx of money from the U.S. and other nations with troops stationed in the country has facilitated this symbiotic relationship in a country that had seen nothing like it before the war. It has seized control of the state, and will be difficult to end within the two-year limit of the troop drawdown. However, the international community can use its financial clout to put pressure on the Afghani government to end the corruption.

While the three main insurgent groups collaborate on attacks and corruption, they often scuffle over control of major operations. As U.S. efforts to crack down on the groups have increased, rifts between the three have widened accordingly.

Even as the U.S. prepares to leave Afghanistan, it must send the message that it is not deserting its ally. The White House must make it clear to ordinary Afghanis that it is not relinquishing the country to insurgents. I spoke with Candace Rondeaux, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Afghanistan, about the insurgent threat. Listen to our conversation below.




]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.885518 2011-06-27T17:53:47-04:00 2011-08-27T05:12:01-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
For years, a stalemate prevailed between the internationally-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and al-Shabab, the Islamist insurgent group and al-Qaeda ally. The TFG was a federal government in name only, battling al-Shabab for control of the capital, Mogadishu. Lacking any kind of central authority, many parts of Somalia formed unrecognized regional governments, which provide a modicum of security and services despite an absence of support from the international community.

But in recent months, the central government has made significant advances against al-Shabab. Little by little, government and aligned forces are expanding the territory under the TFG's control. Another boost to the TFG came earlier this month, when a federal soldier killed Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, one of al-Shabab's top military commanders and the head of al-Qaeda's operations in East Africa.

However, the TFG's success is tenuous. Much of the credit for pushing back al-Shabab belongs to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), the AU force of some 8,000 that does most of the actual fighting. And political infighting and corruption at the highest ranks of the Transitional Federal Government may shrink its ability to capitalize on the opportunity that AMISOM has provided.

The latest casualty of the TFG's internal power struggle was the country's Prime Minister, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, also known as Farmajo, who announced his resignation on June 19. Farmajo was essentially ousted in a deal between rivals President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden. But rather than reconciling the President and Speaker, the Prime Minister's resignation will likely only undermine efforts to stabilize Mogadishu. The Transitional Federal Government will need systemic reform if it is to govern effectively.

I spoke with EJ Hogendoorn, Horn of Africa Program Director at the International Crisis Group, about what can be done to move Somalia into a more stable future. Listen to our conversation below.



]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.870195 2011-06-02T11:50:03-04:00 2011-08-02T05:12:01-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
The local dispute in Abyei involves two communities, the Ngok Dinka--traditionally allied with the South--and the nomadic Misseriya, who graze cattle in Abyei during the dry season. A special referendum was to decide whether Abyei remained a special administrative unit within the North, or became part of the new South--but it did not take place, deepening anxiety among the communities and hardening their positions.

In recent years, the dispute has become increasingly politicized and assumed a national significance. Most recently, it has been used by political elites as a bargaining chip in a broader set of negotiations that will define the relationship between North and South beyond the July 9th partition.

Rather than a clear move to war, Khartoum's capture of Abyei may be seen as primarily about influencing the endgame in Abyei and strengthening the North's hand at the negotiating table. Nonetheless, elevated tensions and the presence of armed forces and proxies risks new conflict on the eve of Southern Sudan's long-awaited independence. I spoke recently with Zach Vertin, Crisis Group's Sudan Analyst, about the crisis. Listen to our conversation below.

]]> tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.859524 2011-05-09T16:15:41-04:00 2011-07-09T05:12:01-04:00

Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/ Tunisia's Way, available to read in full online.

The first Arab revolution may stand the best chance of ushering in the more open, democratic government that protesters demanded, and in many ways, can serve as a case study for the others. Part of the credit for Tunisia's hopeful prospects may lie with the relatively unified revolution that ousted Ben Ali. Tunisia's military and security forces soon sided with the protesters, allying most of the country against the President and his circle. Without support, Ben Ali could not cling to power.

Tunisia's revolution has also benefited from the presence of a highly pragmatic Islamist movement. Unlike some other groups in the region, Tunisia's Islamists have a history of cooperating with secular parties and communicating respect for minority and women's rights. If an active Islamist movement can indeed be integrated into a liberal democratic system, it will happen in Tunisia.

Tunisia's troubles are far from over. Many of the economic grievances underlying the protests remain, including disparities between the coast and the interior. In fact, the revolution may temporarily exacerbate Tunisians' economic hardship, as political upheaval drives away the tourism money so crucial to the country's economy. The international community can lend a hand by forgiving some or all of Tunisia's debt, coordinating the distribution of aid, and returning Ben Ali's frozen assets to the Tunisian people. Governments should also do what they can to restore confidence in Tunisia as a market.

Crisis Group's Robert Malley, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program, shared his insights into Tunisia's revolution in a recent conversation. Listen below.

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Kimberly Abbott http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kimberly-abbott/
In March, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa called on his Gulf neighbors to defend his island nation against an unnamed outside threat. In response, Saudi Arabia and other states dispatched troops and police, and in doing so, upped the ante significantly. Though unspecified, the concern was clear: Bahrain's Sunni rulers feared Iran's influence among the country's majority Shiite population.

But the Iranian threat is overblown. In fact, there is no evidence of any Iranian involvement in the protests whatsoever, and the regime's tactics seem to have backfired. As a new Crisis Group report says, "the intervention likely achieved precisely the opposite of what it intended." The Saudi interference all but extinguished hopes of quick political reform, turned peaceful protests into violent conflict and enflamed sectarian rhetoric in the entire region.

The Bahrainis' demands are longstanding, and over the past few decades, the regime has tried to accommodate some of their grievances. But now the main opposition groups say they won't talk to the regime until foreign troops leave Bahrain. King Hamad, on the other hand, is emboldened by their presence and unlikely to let them go easily.

A credible, third party should be called in to help restore basic trust on both sides, start a dialogue - with the goal of genuine reform toward a constitutional monarchy and convince Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States to withdraw their troops. The sequence of those events is still an open question, as is the most suitable outside mediator, but it remains Bahrain's best hope.

I spoke with Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Group's Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa, about the latest developments in Bahrain, and what should happen to bring the standoff to an end. Listen to our conversation below, and be sure to check out Crisis Group's recent report The Bahrain Revolt, the third report on our ongoing series analyzing the wave of popular protests across North Africa and the Middle East.

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