Mark Coker

New Smashwords Research Helps Authors and Publishers Sell More Ebooks

2013-05-16T17:54:50-04:00

Last year at the 2012 RT Booklovers in Chicago, I released a first-of-its-kind study that analyzed sales data for self-published ebooks. Our goal was to identify potential factors that could help authors sell more ebooks.

Two weeks ago at the 2013 RT Booklovers convention in Kansas City, I shared new, updated data in a session titled, Money, Money, Money -- Facts & Figures for Financial Payoff.

Some of the results were surprising, some were silly, and some I expect will help authors and publishers make their ebooks more appealing to consumers.

For the study this year, we analyzed over $12 million in sales for a collection of 120,000 Smashwords ebooks between May 1, 2012 through March 31, 2013. We aggregated our sales data from across our retail distribution network, which includes the Apple iBookstore, Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo and Amazon (only about 200 of our 200,000 titles are at Amazon). As the world's largest distributor of self-published ebooks, I think our study represents the most comprehensive analysis ever of how ebooks from self-published authors and small independent presses are behaving in the marketplace.

Imagine dozens of levers and dials attached to a book that the author can twist, turn and tweak. When you get everything just right, your book's sales will increase through viral through word-of-mouth. In my free ebook, The Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success, I refer to these tweakable levers as Viral Catalysts. A Viral Catalyst is anything that makes a book more available, more accessible, more discoverable, more desirable and more enjoyable to readers.

The survey attempts to identify Viral Catalysts by analyzing the common characteristics of bestselling (and poor-selling) Smashwords ebooks.

We posed a series of questions to our data to reveal answers that might help authors reach more readers.

The questions included:

Do frequent price changes help authors sell more books?

Do longer or shorter book titles sell more books?

Do longer or shorter book descriptions sell more books?

How do sales develop over time at a retailer, and what factors might spark a breakout?

Do longer or shorter books sell better?

What's the average word count for the 60 bestselling Smashwords romance books?

What does the sales distribution curve look like, and how many books sell well?

How many words are the bestselling authors selling for a penny?

What are the most common price points for indie ebooks, and what changed since last year?

How many more downloads do FREE ebooks get compared to priced ebooks?

How have Smashwords sales grown at the Apple iBookstore in three years?

How does price impact unit sales volume?

What price points yield the greatest overall earnings for authors and publishers?

What does the Yield Graph portend for the future of publishing?

New Smashwords Survey Helps Authors Sell More eBooks from Smashwords, Inc.

KEY FINDINGS

1. Ebook Sales Conform to a Power Curve

Most books don't sell well, but those that do sell well sell really well. This finding wasn't a surprise. Just as in traditional publishing, very few books become bestsellers.

However, the underlying dynamic of the power curve is extremely significant, especially when you consider it as a framework for evaluating the survey's findings. As a title moves up in sales rank, its sales grow exponentially. We see this in our sales results all the time. On any given day, a #1 bestseller in an ebook store might be selling twice the number copies as the #5-ranked title on that day, and quadruple the number of copies as the #10 bestseller. In our data over this 11-month period, the #1 Smashwords bestseller, measured in dollars, sold 37 times more than the book ranked #500, and #500's sales would put a smile on most authors' faces.

The opportunity for every author and publisher is to make decisions that cause their books to move up in sales rank. This is power of the Viral Catalyst concept. When you consider that there are potentially dozens if not hundreds of factors that can make a book more (or less) discoverable, desirable and enjoyable, then you realize that you - the author/publisher - have more control over your book's destiny than previously thought. Your opportunity is to make dozens of correct decisions - big and small - while avoiding the poor decisions that will undermine your success.

The next finding, when viewed through the lens of the power curve, is especially significant.

2. Viva Long Form Reading: Longer Books Sell Better

For the second year running, we found definitive evidence that ebook readers - voting with their Dollars, Euros, Pounds, Krone, Krona and Koruna - overwhelmingly prefer longer books over shorter books.

The top 100 bestselling Smashwords books averaged 115,000 words. When we examined the word counts of books in other sales rank bands, we found the lower the word count, the lower the sales.

Now consider how authors and publishers can use this finding, combined with the knowledge of the power curve, to make smarter publishing decisions, and to avoid poor decisions. Often, we'll see authors with a single full-length novel break the novel into chunks to create a series of novellas, or worse - they'll try to serialize it as dozens of short pieces. When you consider that readers overwhelmingly prefer longer works, and you consider that bestselling titles sell exponentially more copies, and reach more readers and earn more money than the non-bestsellers, you can understand how some authors might be undermining their book's true potential.

Like every finding from this survey, you should use this information as a single data point. There will always be exceptions to any rule. If your story deserves 50,000 words - nothing more and nothing less - because this is the length packs the biggest pleasure punch for readers, then by all means don't bloat your perfect story with extra words just because the data shows that longer books, on average, sell more. Do what's right for your story because that's what's right for your reader.

3. Shorter Book Titles Appear to Have Slight Sales Advantage

This year we examined whether there was a correlation between book sales and the length of the book title. Do shorter or longer titles work best? When we looked at character count, the results indicated a slight advantage for shorter titles. We looked at word count, the advantage of shorter titles appeared to be more pronounced.

For titles ranked #1,000-#2,000, the average word count was 5.7, or about 36% more words than the top 100.

Books ranked #100,000-#101,000 (not a sales rank any author wants!), the book title word count was 6.0 words.

Why might shorter book titles have an advantage? I can only speculate. Maybe shorter titles catch the reader's eye and attention more effectively. After all, reading requires cognitive energy, so maybe the additional cognitave load of reading and comprehending a longer title creates friction that causes some readers to click away? Or maybe some retailers' inability to list super-long book titles on the merchandising page reduces effectiveness?

My advice: Think less about word count and more about choosing a title that, like good writing, is concise, clear and intriguing.

4. How Indie Authors are Pricing Their Books: $2.99 is the Most Common Price Point

The most popular price points are FREE through 2.99.

Authors chose $2.99 more frequently than any other price point. In last year's survey, $.99 was a more common price point than $2.99. In this year's survey, $2.99 was chosen about 60% more often.

$.99 remains a popular price point.

$5.00 and up has lost favor with indie authors and publishers compared to the same data a year ago.

5. How Price Impacts Unit Sales Volume: Lower Priced Books (usually) Sell More Copies

How does an author or publisher's choice of price impact the number of books they sell? It's an important question, because as an author or publisher, you want your words to touch the eyes of readers.

As you might expect, we found there's a definite relation between price and unit sales volume. Lower prices generally sell more copies than higher prices. But not always.

We normalized the data so we could understand how the average book priced at a given price would perfom compared to a book priced over $10.00+. We set $10.00+ as equal to "x."

So, for example you'll see in the chart that $.99 is 3.9x. This means that a $.99 book will on average sell 3.9 times as many books as a book priced over $10.00. A $2.99 book sells about 4 times as many units.

Note how books priced between $1.00 and $1.99 significantly underperform books priced at $2.99 and $3.99. $1.99 appears to be a black hole.

What price moves the most units? The answer is FREE. Although not shown in the chart, my presentation, embedded above, includes an analysis I performed of our sales at the Apple iBookstore over the last 12 months. FREE books, on average, earned 92 times more downloads than books at any price. If you've written several books, consider pricing at least one of the books at free. If you write series, consider pricing the series starter at FREE. Nothing attracts reader interest like FREE. But remember, it's one thing to get the reader to download your book. It's an entirely different challenge to get them to read it, finish it and love it.

6. The Yield Graph: Is $3.99 the New $2.99?

It goes without saying that a $.99 book will usually sell more units than a $10+ book. But will the $.99 book make up in volume what the $10+ book earns in margin?

That's the question answered by the Yield Graph. We computed book earnings for all the books in each price band, and then divided the results by the number of books in that band to determine the average yield for a book priced in each band.

I labeled each bar with a percentage so you know how the yields of each book in that band, on average, compares against against the overall average of all the bands.

So, for example, books priced at $3.99 will earn about 55% more than the average book at any price. Books priced at $1.99 are likely to earn 67% less than the average.

One surprising finding is that, on average, $3.99 books sold more units than $2.99 books, and more units than any other price except FREE. I didn't expect this. Although the general pattern holds that lower priced books tend to sell more units than higher priced books, $3.99 was the rule-breaker. According to our Yield Graph, $3.99 earned authors total income that was 55% above the average compared to all price points.

The finding runs counter to the meme that ebook prices will only drop lower. I think it offers encouraging news for authors and publishers alike. It also tells me that some authors who are pricing between $.99 and $2.99 might actually be underpricing.

What might account for the magic of the $3.99 price point? First, I think it means readers will pay for quality books. You don't become a bestseller at any price - including FREE - if you haven't written a great, reader-pleasing book. Next, it might indicate that some percent of the readers are shying away from the ultra-low price points. Anecdotally, I've hear multiple reports from authors where they raised prices and unit sales increased. While I do believe some of this is happening, I don't think all readers operate with the same mindset.

As much as we all would like to discover that one magic secret for success, reader behavior is much more nuanced and diverse. Diversity of behavior was certainly the primary high-level finding in my ebook discovery survey in September, 2011. Back then, we found that different readers have different methods of discovering books. Some readers will be attracted to low-priced books, and other readers will be repulsed. Viva diversity!

Other highlights from the Yield Graph: Books priced between $.99 and $1.99 continue to underperform when we look at the book's total earnings. $1.99 performs especially poorly. It's a black hole. I'd avoid that price point if you can. Price the book instead at $2.99 and you'll probably earn more, AND you'll sell more units if your book performs near the average.

7. A Closer Look at the Yield Graph Reveals Why Indie Ebook Authors Have a Competitive Advantage over Traditionally Published Authors

I think the most important findings of the entire study are found in these last two charts above about how price impacts unit sales, and in the Yield Graph, where I examine how price combined with unit sales impacts author earnings.

The Yield Graph reveals why indie authors are gaining significant advantage over traditionally published authors.

When an author sells a book, they receive two primary benefits. 1. They earn the royalty from the sale. 2. They earn a reader, and a reader is a potential fan, and fan is a potential super-fan who will buy anything you publish, and who will evangelize your book to everyone they know.

I'd argue that readership - the key to building your author brand and fan base, is more important to your long term success than a dollar in your pocket today.

Indie ebook authors are earning royalty percentages that are 3-5 times higher than what traditionally published authors earn. Publishers are overpricing their books relative to indie ebook alternatives. This means that indie authors can reach more readers AND earn more money selling lower priced books at higher unit volumes all the while earning more per book sold than traditionally published authors at higher prices. The significance of these economic dynamics cannot be overstated.

Allow me to break it down this way. An indie ebook author earns about $2.00 from the sale of a $2.99 book. That book, on average, will sell four times as many units as a book priced over $10.00. In order for a traditionally published author to earn $2.00 on an ebook sale, the book must be priced at $11.42 (if the publisher has agency terms, as Smashwords does) or $16.00 (if it's a wholesale publisher). Remember, traditionally published authors earn only 25% of the net, whereas Smashwords authors earn 85% net. If your book is traditionally published, and your publisher sells under the wholesale pricing model, you earn only about $1.25 for a book priced at $9.99, whereas an indie ebook author would earn $6.00-$8.00 at that price.

If a reader has the choice to purchase one of two books of equal quality, and one is priced at $2.99 and the other is priced at $12.99, which will they choose?

If the publisher prices at $2.99 to be competitive, and they have agency terms with the retailer, their author earns only 52 cents (25% net of the 70% list received by the publisher), compared to the indie author's take of $2.00.

These economic dynamics will not play out well for large publishers or their authors. If ebook sales continue to increase as a percentage of overall book sales, and if print continues to decline as a format prefered by readers, and especially if brick-and-mortar bookstore closers continue or accelerate, it'll become increasingly difficult for publishers to hold on to their best authors.

Publishers need to pray that print remains a strong-selling format, and that the physical bookstores stop closing. For now, print distribution - a benefit available only to traditionally published authors - is a strong reason for authors to work with a publisher as opposed to self-publishing.

Even with the continued importance of print, I'm seeing signs that some bestselling indie authors are beginning to hold on to their ebook rights and do print-only deals with the publishers. Recent examples include Bella Andre with her Sullivans series, Hugh Howey with Wool, and Colleen Hoover with Hopeless.

In a future world dominated by ebooks, publishers need to find a way to lower prices while increasing per-unit earnings for the author. It'll be difficult because the cost structure of traditional publishing is so high. Publishers aren't feeling the pain yet because the bulk of their sales are still coming from print. However, look at any ebook bestseller list and you'll see indie ebook authors are taking sales from the bigger traditionally published authors.

I predict that within three years, over 50% of the New York Times bestselling ebooks will be self-published ebooks. It's possible I'm being too conservative.

Indie ebook authors can publish faster and less expensively, publish globally, enjoy greater creative freedom, earn higher royalties, and have greater control. It's not as difficult to successfully self-publish as some people think. The bestselling traditionally published authors already know how to write a super-awesome book. That's the most difficult task of publishing because the best books market themselves through reader word-of-mouth.

Already, many successful indies, borrowing from the playbook of publishers, are assembling freelance teams of editors, cover designers, formatters and distributors. Tell me again, what can a publisher do for the ebook author that the author can't already do for themselves faster, cheaper and more profitability?

As an author, your e-rights are valuable. Don't give them up easily. If you self-publish an ebook, the book is immortal. It'll never go out of print. Your e-rights are an asset - much like an annuity - which will earn income for years to come. If you write fiction, great stories are timeless. Your book could earn an annuity stream of income for you and your heirs for many decades to come. In the presentation, I show charts of how books can sell over time. For great books, the sales continue long after the pub date.

This doesn't mean that publishers will become relegated to the dustbin of history. Many authors - including many bestsellers - will continue to want the support of a publisher partner so the author can focus on writing books rather than assuming typical publisher responsibilities such as editing, proofing, packaging, sales, marketing, distribution, foreign rights and backoffice.

How to Make Use of the Findings

Our study drew upon an enormous data set, and the findings are distilled down to averages. We also included both fiction and non-fiction in the survey, and didn't differentiate between the two. The vast majority of our titles and sales are fiction, so please consider that as you evaluate our findings.

Your book is unique and may not conform to averages. Although some of our findings will help you make more informed publishing decisions, I urge you to use caution.

Think of some of the Viral Catalyst ideas that came out of this study as the opportunity to fine-tune your publishing. Consider each finding as a single data point. Consider it as an option for possible experimentation.

Data-driven decision-making can give you an edge, but the edge is worthless if you don't start with the foundation of a super-fabulous book. If you want to reach a lot of readers, write a book your readers will market for you through their word of mouth and positive reviews.

Don't let data-driven decision-making cause you to make stupid decisions. If the data shows (and it does) that shorter book titles might give you a slight sales advantage, don't change your title to two words if the absolute best and necessary title is seven words. If the data shows that books over 100,000 words sell the best (and it does), but you think your story works better at 70,000 words, don't bloat your story. Use common sense and do what's right for you book, and do what's right for your reader, and what's right for your personal ambitions as an author.

Also consider that this survey, like last year's survey, will be read by thousands of other authors and publishers, and may influence their decision-making. Last year's presentation on Slideshare has already been viewed over 75,000 times (wow, that blows me away!). Today, $3.99 price point appears to be an underutilized opportunity because there are fewer titles than $2.99 and readers respond favorably to $3.99. However, if thousands of authors shift their pricing to $3.99 tomorrow, will the edge diminish? I don't know the answer to that.

Please Share This Survey with Your Friends

If you found this information useful, please share it with your friends. If you like the charts and what they represent, please post them to Facebook, Pinterest and Twitter and then link back to here to Huffington Post so your fellow writers can benefit from the full survey.

I welcome your feedback below, as well as suggestions for next year's survey.

Libraries to Become Community Publishing Portals

2013-03-28T14:54:07-04:00

Public libraries provide an essential community service by promoting literacy and a culture of reading.

With the rise of ebooks, public libraries are at a crossroads. Some book publishers, fearful that library ebook lending will cannibalize retail sales of books, are reluctant to supply ebooks to libraries at the very time that library patrons are clamoring for greater access to such materials.

Rather than standing idly by as publishers jeopardize their future, some libraries see an opportunity to take control by proactively cultivating a newer, more library-friendly source of ebooks. These libraries are developing community publishing initiatives in partnership with self-published ebook authors.

On March 21, I gave a three-part presentation on this topic at the Midwest Collaborative for Library Services symposium in Lansing, Michigan. I outlined the opportunity for libraries to facilitate community publishing by helping local writers become professional ebook self-publishers (View my library ebooks presentation here).

Libraries are uniquely qualified to marshal community resources and talent to help local writers become publishers. Local self-published authors, in turn, have an exciting opportunity -- working with the library -- to give back to their community by mentoring the next generation of writers.

By sponsoring educational seminars and events, libraries can bring local authors face-to-face with readers and writers. Libraries can help unleash the talent locked inside the minds and fingertips of their community's writers.

Here in my home town of Los Gatos, California, Smashwords (my company) has been working in partnership with the Los Gatos Public Library over the last six months to develop and roll out a pilot program designed to help local writers learn to become professional publishers.

The elements of the program are simple.

For the first part of the pilot, we focused on education. In order for any writer to become a successful self-published author, they need to learn the best-practices knowledge of professional publishers.

We created and delivered a three-part seminar series that explored ebooks from the perspectives of readers, library staff and prospective authors. The three seminars included:

An introduction to ebooks. Provided library patrons and library staff a general overview of ebooks, ebook market trends, and how to check-out ebooks at their library. A Smashwords representative delivered the primer, followed by Henry Bankhead, the Interim Town Librarian, who provided a tutorial on how patrons can check out ebooks from LGPL.

An introduction to ebook self-publishing. Provided aspiring authors an introductory primer on how to prepare, create, self-publish and distribute an ebook. The presentation provided a detailed checklist of important topics such as ebook formatting, ebook conversion, cover design, ISBNs, copyright, pricing, piracy, distribution to retailers and marketing.

Ebook publishing best-practices. This session focused on the best practices of the most commercially successful indie ebook authors, drawing upon the 29 best practices I outline in my free ebook, The Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success. Although it's fast, free and easy to self-publish an ebook, it's difficult to make your ebook stand out in the crowd of over a million other books. This seminar explored such topics as publishing strategy, leveraging FREE as a marketing tool, ebook lifecycles compared to print lifecycles, how to maximize word-of-mouth so readers become fans and evangelists, pricing strategies to maximize earnings and readership, the global opportunity outside the US, and how to conduct your self-publishing adventure like a business.

Libraries can build upon our materials to develop other workshops as well. A couple of the librarians from Michigan suggested to me last week that they could leverage their new media labs so local graphic artists could design ebook covers for local authors. What a great idea! And it's only the tip of the iceberg once libraries start considering how to organize local talent toward the common objective of helping local writers produce quality books. How about classes on writing, or editing, or cover design, or social media marketing, or how to conduct research? What if the library opened their doors to local book clubs, writing clubs and critique groups? How about connecting local authors with library patrons who want to volunteer as beta readers or proof-readers?

Publishing Portal Makes Publishing and Distribution Tools More Accessible

To facilitate greater access to the free tools of ebook publishing and distribution, Los Gatos Public Library last week rolled out a new co-branded publishing portal (managed by Smashwords), which allows local writers to publish and distribute ebooks at no cost. This will eventually allow local writers to "Publish to the Library" by making their book available to libraries and retailers around the world.

How Indie Authors Can Get Involved

If you're a self-published author, you have an opportunity to get involved today. Contact your library and offer to do a talk about your own e-publishing adventure. Or join with local indies and do a panel discussion. Download my presentation above and customize it for your own library presentations about ebook self-publishing.

Encourage your local library to sign on with one of the many leading ebook aggregation services, such as Baker & Taylor Axis 360, 3M's Cloud Library, or Overdrive. These services operate ebook checkout systems, and make it easy for libraries to purchase ebooks. Or, encourage the library to investigate the innovative "DCL Model," pioneered by Jamie LaRue, director of Douglas County Libraries in Colorado. Under the DCL Model, libraries create their own ebook checkout systems and purchase books directly from publishers and distributors.

With your help, libraries around the globe have a bright future as the nexus where writers, readers and authors come together to create, celebrate and enjoy books.

Image: Los Gatos Public Library, used with permission. Copyright Peter Carter

5 Steps to Boost eBook Sales - Listening to Readers

2013-03-05T16:36:00-05:00

A few times each month, I'll receive a plaintive email from an author asking me why their book isn't selling better.

It's tough to read these, because I know behind the email is an author who's feeling disappointed their years of effort have borne no fruit. The impossibly of answering such a question makes it all the tougher. There's no one single magic bullet. Most books don't sell well.

Don't give up. One benefit of ebook self-publishing is that the author can evolve their book over time. Unlike static print books of yesteryear, your ebook is a dynamic, living creature.

Below, I share five tips on how to identify and repair what standing between you and readers.

Tip #1 - Look at your reviews at all the retailers. Ignore the reviews from friends and family, they don't count. Average them up. How many stars are you getting out of five?

This past weekend, when I looked at the top 20 bestsellers at the Apple iBookstore, they averaged 4 stars out of five. On other random days I've done this test, they averaged 4.5. The #1 bestselling book on Saturday at Apple was Never Too Far by Abbi Glines (distributed by Smashwords), and it averaged 4.5 stars. Some of the representative comments were, "loved this book," "Amazing," "couldn't put it down," and "couldn't stop reading."

If you want to become a bestseller, good enough is not good enough. You need to WOW your reader. It doesn't matter if you write romance, thrillers or non-fiction. If your book doesn't move the reader to an emotional extreme, consider a revision.

Take the case of my soap opera novel, Boob Tube, co-written by my wife and me. It averages around 3.5 stars. That's not good enough. We're not wowing readers. My wife and I should probably do a major revision if we want better reviews and better sales. Our sales range from 20 to 30 copies a month, not bad for an ebook that's been out five years. What if after a revision, we averaged 4.5 stars? Imagine how that would move the needle on sales.

What if you don't have reviews? - This is as big of a problem as poor reviews. If your book has been out for more than three months and it's not selling and you don't have reviews, consider setting the price to free, at least for a limited time. What do you have to lose? Readers aren't finding you anyway.

This is the course of action my wife and I selected with Boob Tube. For the first two years (2008-2009), Boob Tube sold horribly, maybe 20 copies total. It had only one or two reviews across all the retailers. My wife and I decided to set the price to free for six months. We got 40,000 downloads, a lot of reviews, and even our first fan mail (yay!). Then we set the price to $2.99 and it started selling. Without reviews at the retailers, Goodreads, LibraryThing and elsewhere, few readers will take a chance on you. FREE helps readers take that chance.

Tip #2 - Redo your Cover Image. If your book's reviews are averaging over four stars, yet the book isn't selling, your cover is probably the problem. This was the case last year for Smashwords author R.L. Mathewson. She was earning fabulous "WOW" reviews from readers, yet she was only selling a few copies a day (even still, a few copies a day is way above average for most authors).

When she upgraded her cover images, her books immediately took off, and then a couple weeks later she hit the N.Y. Times bestseller list for the first time. A great book with great reviews supported by a great cover can make all the difference.

A great cover image makes a promise to the reader. A poor cover image chases potential readers away. Great covers are aspirational. The reader aspires to feel something, and the cover promises that feeling.

Here's a quick test, and a challenge: If you were to strip away the title and author name, does your cover image tell the reader, "this is the book you're looking for to experience [the feeling of first love for romance; fear for horror; edge of your seat suspense for thrillers; knowledge for a non-fiction how-to; an inspiring story of personal journey for a memoir, delicious home-cooked meals for a cookbook, etc]."

The human brain is programmed to process imagery faster than written words. When a reader is browsing book listings, they're looking to have their attention arrested by something that speaks to them. Everything else is noise. Don't be the noise.

Back to my novel. A couple bestselling Smashwords authors have told me that the cover of Boob Tube doesn't work. It took me awhile to come around, but I agree with them now. The image focuses on breasts, which are an obsessive, almost-debilitating focus for the actresses on daytime television soaps. We explore this in the book. Yet to the reader, the image sends conflicting messages. Is this book erotica, or pornography (no!)? Because the image isn't resonating with the right promise, we're probably chasing away readers who would otherwise be drawn to the story.

Tip #3 - Is your book priced too high? When a book is priced too high, it makes the book less affordable to the reader. If you're an unknown author, it makes the reader less willing to take a chance on you.

Last year, I conducted a study of the impact of price on unit downloads and gross sales. I found that lower prices moved more unit sales than higher prices (no surprise there). Books priced at $2.99 earned slightly more than books priced over $10.00, yet enjoyed six times as many unit sales.

As an author, dollars in your pocket are good, but over the long term, the greater number of readers is what will drive your fan base and future sales. If your book is priced over $5.99, and it's not selling well, try a lower price and see what happens. There's one other potential advantage of lower prices: Value. If the reader feels they received a great read for the price, you're more likely to earn a positive review.

Tip # 4 - Are you targeting the right audience? As a writer, you're never going to satisfy every reader. That's okay. Don't try.

Know your target audience, and then make sure your title, book cover, book description, categorization and marketing are all aligned to target that audience with fine-tuned precision. If you send the wrong messages, you'll attract the wrong readers, and they won't generate the positive word-of-mouth or reviews you need.

Again, I'll use my own novel as an example (since I'm not afraid to illustrate my mistakes!). Early in our novel, a dead body is discovered, so there's a bit of a mystery about who did it. It's a minor plot point, and the book isn't categorized as mystery. However, at one time in 2011, our book description played up the mystery surrounding the murder.

For at least one reader, after she read the description she downloaded the book thinking it was a murder mystery. It's not. It's a book about the dark side of Hollywood celebrity.

The reader felt mislead, and gave us this one-star review:

"If you want to read about drug use, masochism, naive behavior leading to wrecked lives and truly disgusting eating disorders, this book is for you. If you were looking for a murder mystery, look somewhere else. I got more than 50% into the book and no one was calling the death a murder. So, no investigation, no questions, none of the things that make a book a murder mystery."

Following this review, I removed the murder-mystery subplot from the description and focused on the top themes.

Avoid the temptation to target a broader-than-necessary market.

Tip #5 - Balance humility and pride. It's tough being a writer. You pour your heart and soul into your words, and then lay your words bare before the world for judgment. It takes bravery and confidence to publish. Speaking from personal experience, it's heartbreaking to receive your first one-star review. We all get them.

To press forward as writers, we have to decide what we can learn from, and what we can ignore. Find your strength from your five-star reviews (we have those too!), and carefully examine your other reviews to identify opportunities for improvement. I try to learn something from every review, even if I don't agree with it.

The opposite response to reader feedback, however, is equally destructive, and that's to let pride blind your eyes to the bread crumb clues your readers are providing you. If you want to become a successful writer, you must consider the feedback of readers if you're not already wowing them. Your readers, through their reviews and word-of-mouth, will determine how many other readers you reach.

Next Steps

As a self-published author, your ebook is immortal. You always have another day. If you never give up, you'll never fail. If you listen to what your readers are telling you, as conveyed through their action, inaction and reviews, you'll reach more readers.

This post has been condensed from the original, which can be found here.

Why eBook Retailers Are Embracing Self-Published Authors

2013-02-12T20:21:50-05:00

If anyone doubts the speed at which the epicenter of book publishing is shifting from publishers to self-published authors, look no further than the Apple iBookstore.

Last week, Apple's iBookstore launched Breakout Books in the U.S., a new book merchandising feature that showcases books from popular self-published authors, including several that have already achieved New York Times bestseller status. The New York Times covered the story last week, as did The Wall Street Journal.

Apple's merchandising team hand-picked the titles, all of which have earned high ratings from Apple customers.

Disclosure: Many of the eBooks featured were distributed to Apple by my company, Smashwords.

Although the iBookstore has always carried and supported self-published eBooks, last week's launch signified an escalated commitment on the part of Apple, whose iBookstore currently sells books in 50 countries. The iBookstore first piloted the Breakout Books feature in their Australian store in late November and has since implemented similar ongoing features in Canada and the U.K.

A retailer's merchandising decisions are among the most important levers driving book discovery and sales. Whether you're a traditionally published author or a self-published author, such placement can make your book stand out in a haystack of millions of other books competing for your reader's attention.

Why are retailers such as the Apple iBookstore, Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo and Amazon giving self-published ebooks such merchandising love?

eBook Retailers and Readers Are Embracing Self-Published Authors

Over the last few years, I've written multiple posts here on The Huffington Post articulating the advantages of eBook self-publishing from the author perspective, such as the opportunity to bypass publishing gatekeepers; faster time to market; access to global distribution; higher royalties; and greater creative control. Many other industry watchers have covered the same.

Few in the publishing industry, however, have examined why retailers are stepping up their support for self-published books, and why readers are purchasing them. When we examine the myriad reasons, we see the playing field is likely to continue tilting to the advantage of self-published ebook authors.

Here, I'll outline why retailers and readers are supporting self-published books, and what it means for authors:

Quality. The job of the retailer is to connect readers with books they'll enjoy reading. The quality of self-published ebooks -- measured by reader reviews -- has increased significantly over the last few years as indie authors publish with greater professionalism, from editing to cover design to pricing and promotion. The most successful self-published ebooks often match or exceed the quality and desirability of traditionally published ebooks.

Low prices. The average Smashwords ebook is priced around $2.99. Readers love low cost books, especially if the quality is as good as or better than what's released by traditional publishers. High quality books sold at low prices make customers happy, and what makes the customer happy makes the retailer happy. Low prices make self-published authors happy too, because a self-published author earns about $2.00 selling a $2.99 book. In order for a traditionally published author to earn $2.00 per ebook sold, the book would have to be priced over $11.00. Why the disparity? Most publishers pay authors 25 percent net for retail sales, which works out to 12.5-17.5 percent of the list price, whereas self-published authors earn 60-70 percent of the list price.

Diversity. Publishers are in the business of publishing books that they think will sell. In the end, the publisher can only guess what readers want to read. By rejecting most authors, publishers deny readers an incredible diversity of high-quality books that can satisfy both large mainstream markets as well as thousands of smaller micro-markets. Retailers know their customers appreciate the broadest possible diversity and selection of quality books. Indie authors deliver it.

Readers are the new curators. Readers -- not publishers -- have always been the ultimate arbiters of what's worth reading, and reader word-of-mouth drives book sales. In the old world of publishing, publishers and retailers could only guess what readers wanted to read. Today, each time a reader downloads, purchases or reviews an ebook, this data becomes an expression of reader sentiment that ebook merchandisers can mine to identify books worthy of extra promotion. I predict the long-admired gatekeeping function played by publishers will eventually be viewed as detrimental to the future of the written word. Yes, publishers can add incredible value to books, but by making their publishing decisions through a myopic prism of perceived commercial potential, and by pricing their books too high, they're denying readers great books, and thereby denying authors the readers they seek. These authors are learning they no longer need a publisher's blessing to publish. Authors are bypassing publishers and publishing directly to readers with self-publishing platforms.

Unlimited shelf space. In the old print world of brick and mortar book retailing, retailers had a limited amount of shelf space, so they could only stock a small fraction of available books. In the new world of democratized ebook publishing and distribution, self-published writers have the freedom to publish what they want, and readers have the freedom to read what they want. Unlimited shelf space enables more books to be published, and some of these books will go on to find large audiences.

eBooks never go out of print. In the old world of publishing, if a book sold poorly at first, the retailers would pack up the books and return them to the publisher. These returns would essentially force a book out of print. With ebooks, the books are immortal. They never go out of print. They're always available to be discovered and enjoyed by new audiences. This means retailers can sell them for as long as the author wishes them to be sold. It means every ebook represents a permanent annuity stream for the retailer, the author and the author's heirs.

Sales!. Self-published books are selling. Self-published ebooks are hitting all the bestseller lists. Smashwords retailers are selling millions of dollars of our authors' books each year, and that makes me happy because it gives our retail partners strong financial incentive to support our authors with new merchandising opportunities in the future.

FREE series starters. Many of the bestselling indie authors are writing full-length book series, and they're pricing the first book in the series at FREE. FREE series starters give indie authors a significant discovery advantage over traditionally published authors who invariably see their book's full potential squandered by high prices.

High unit volume. Follow the eyeballs. Since Christmas, iBookstore customers have downloaded an average of over one million FREE and priced Smashwords books each week. For indie authors, the high unit volume enabled by low cost, high-quality books means that the indie author can develop fans and author platforms faster than traditionally published authors. Apple -- like Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo and Amazon that also produce their own e-reading devices -- gains two benefits from every download or sale: 1. They sell a lot of books and satisfy a lot of customers; 2. The millions of hours customers spend each month to browse, download, purchase and enjoy self-published books on iPhones, iPads, Kindles and Nooks make these devices that much more essential to the customer's life.

Rapid publishing helps authors be more responsive to a retailer's customers' desires. Indie authors enjoy faster production schedules, which allow them to satisfy reader desires more quickly, or to cater to hot trends before the trends fade. Indie ebook authors can transform their fully edited manuscript into a professionally published ebook in a matter of minutes, and in a matter of hours or days achieve worldwide distribution at major retailers. Most traditionally-published writers must wait a year or more before their book reaches the market (imagine all the missed sales!).

Indies are always iterating and evolving. Unlike traditionally published print books which remain relatively static and unchanged after publication, indie authors are iterating their books. As I documented at the Smashwords blog, after R.L. Mathewson uploaded an improved cover image, the book broke out at Apple. A couple of weeks later, her book hit the New York Times bestseller list. Since indie ebooks are immortal and never go out of print, the author can always experiment with different covers, pricing or book descriptions. I document these and other discoverability levers in my free ebook, The Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success. The book identifies the 28 best practices of the most commercially successful indie authors.

The Breakout Books section can be found on the iBookstore at http://iTunes.com/BreakoutBooks.

A longer version of this post, including a list of about 50 of the participating books and authors, originally appeared on the Smashwords blog.

21 Book Publishing Predictions for 2013: Indie Ebook Authors Take Charge

2012-12-23T11:35:04-05:00

It's that time of year when book people polish their crystal balls and make predictions for the year ahead. I bring you, my dear reader, my epic predictions for 2013.

I say "epic" tongue in cheek, because I went a bit overboard this year. When I sat down to write this, I was thinking of maybe eight or ten predictions with short narratives. I'm bringing you 21 predictions with expansive narratives. Skim the headlines then read what grabs you.

All of us in this business, from writers to readers and everyone in between, have a vision for where things are going.

Vision is an odd thing. To see something which doesn't exist either makes one a prophetic seer or a delusional nut. At the wonderful Pikes Peak conference in Colorado Springs earlier this year, I had the pleasure to meet Donald Maass, an author and top tier literary agent for whom I have much respect. I attended a surprising session in which he trashed self-publishing. The mood in the room changed from optimism to dejection when he spoke words to the effect of, "If you don't care to reach readers, then by all means self-publish." I was floored by his comment, because it's not what I expected from someone of his smarts. I've met with dozens of literary agents over the last 18 months, and 95% of them see things differently than Donald Maass.

When I saw him later that night at a dinner, I told him I thought he was underestimating the transformative impact self-published authors will have on book publishing. He looked me in the eye, smiled, and said, "and I think you're delusional." Touché! I think it was one of my favorite moments of the year. One of us will come to our senses eventually.

We are all on a journey. None of us know with absolute certainty what happens next. All we can do is position ourselves for the future we prophetically or delusionally imagine. History will judge us all. Those who position correctly will be rewarded. Those who aren't prepared will face the harsh realities of the future marketplace.

Every one of us holds the power to change the course of history by taking actions today that enable the future we desire. Our actions mirror our aspirations, which means the future of publishing will be determined by our collective and sometimes competing aspirations. Readers are our gatekeepers.

I challenge you, my dear writer, publisher or reader, to take charge of your future. Imagine a brighter and better future ahead, where the culture of books reigns supreme, where more people are discovering, reading, purchasing, publishing, selling, and profiting-from books. Imagine a future where more readers than ever before will enjoy a greater diversity of books than ever before. Imagine a future where the power center of the publishing business shifts from traditional publishers to ordinary writers where it belongs.

The utopian and often self-serving aspirations of industry participants don't always intersect. Sometimes, objectives are at odds with one another, and at other times objectives are aligned. Our experiences, biases and fears color our perceptions, and sometimes distort them.

Much is at stake. The world's 50 largest book publishers alone achieved $68 billion in sales in 2011, according to Publishers Weekly. Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) estimates the US consumer ebook market alone will surpass $10 billion by 2016. When so much money and power is up for grabs, industry players have a lot to fight over, and much to protect. Books are worth fighting for, so fight for the future you want. Otherwise, someone else may determine your future for you.

None of us can truly predict the future, but we can still prepare for it by remaining flexible. We must be willing to roll with the punches when fate tries to smack us upside the head, and adjust our course and our beliefs when we make mistakes, or when we discover new opportunities on the horizon.

The doubters like Donald Maass are becoming the exception, not the rule, and that worries me. When everyone starts swimming in the same direction and believing the same group think, that's when I start wondering about what comes next. It's the job of any entrepreneur - and we are all entrepreneurs of our own destiny - to prepare for the future while surviving today.

21 Book Industry Predictions for 2013

1. In the US, ebooks sales will reach 45% of US trade book market

Ebook sales growth in the US is slowing, but we'll still continue to see ebooks take eyeballs from print books. Brick and mortar retailers will reduce shelf space for print as more readers turn to screens as their new paper of choice. Ebooks as a percentage of overall trade book sales in the US should hit 45%, up from what I'm estimating will probably be 30% in 2012. I might be underestimating both numbers. It's tough to find reliable market share data.

2. Follow the eyeballs: 2013 will be the first year unit volume of ebooks exceeds print

The dollar sales growth of ebooks understates the profound shift to ebooks and screen reading. 2013 will be the first year more books are read on screens than on paper. To really understand the seismic shift toward screens, follow the eyeballs. Ebooks cost less than print books. The price of ebooks is declining, which means that the dollar sales growth cited above understates the increase in unit sales volume, and unit download volume. Furthermore, the data doesn't measure free downloads.

Smashwords authors are generating about 3 million downloads at the Apple iBookstore each month, for books priced at FREE. Annualized, that's over 36 million downloads. We'll do more in 2013. My 36 million number doesn't include the millions of readers our authors are reaching each month across Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo, the Diesel eBookstore, Page Foundry, Blio, Amazon, the Smashwords.com store, and at public libraries. These authors are building platforms and fan bases at a faster rate than many traditionally published authors.

When customers have the option to purchase two books of equal quality, and one is priced at $2.99 and the other at $10+, our data indicates the books generate essentially the same amount of dollar sales, but the $2.99 price yields six times as many unit sales. If you're an author, and you have a the option to earn the same earnings at $2.99 as $10+, but at $2.99 you'll build your platform six times faster, what price is the right price? It's a no-brainer.

Indie authors are leveraging the agency model, earning royalties of 60-70% list. This allows them to price lower, earn more per-unit at lower prices than traditionally published authors selling at higher prices, and all while the lower prices help them sell more units and build author brands faster than authors stuck with traditional publishing deals. Tell me again why authors of the future will want to hobble their careers working with a big publisher that over-prices their work, starves them of readers, and pays per-unit royalty rates of 25% net when indies are earning triple to quadruple that when they self-publish?

3. The current glut of books will become even more pronounced

Even before the indie ebook revolution, there was a glut of books. There are simply too many great books worth reading, and not enough eyeballs or hours in a lifetime to read them all. 2013 will remind us we haven't seen anything yet. Thanks to the increased awareness and street cred of indie ebook publishing, and free online tools like Smashwords that make ebook publishing fast, free and easy, the next generation of writers is realizing they need not bow subservient before the altars of publishing gatekeepers ever again.

Smashwords authors are publishing direct to their readers and achieving global distribution. This is leading to a surge of new titles that never stop coming, and never go out of print. In 2013, self-published ebooks will swamp the titles put out by traditional publishers. This is good for the future of authors, readers and publishing. We're in the early stages of a full scale publishing renaissance. Readers now have access to an amazing diversity of high quality books.

Some industry participants - some authors included - fear this glut, because they think it'll either increase competition or decrease discoverability. Yes and no. More high-quality titles than ever will be released, because the barriers to publication have been eliminated. Readers will discover the best books and propel them forward through word of mouth. More poor-quality books than ever will also be released, and these books will be summarily ignored by readers, reviewed poorly, and will fail to spark word of mouth. Yes, competition will increase, but so will author opportunity, because more readers than ever will be reading ebooks.

4. It'll get tougher to sell books

The easy days are behind us. In the next few years, I expect millions of out of print books will come back to life as ebooks. Millions of writers will self-publish new titles. The virtual shelves of online ebook retailers will expand to accommodate a limitless supply of ebooks.

In the early days of self-published ebooks when there were fewer books to choose from, the act of making your book available in the ebook format helped you reach a lot of readers. In 2013, authors will face more competition for reader eyeshare. Most of that competition will come from fellow indie authors.

Indies, as a collective organism, are become more knowledgeable, professional and sophisticated in their publishing. They're pioneering the best practices of tomorrow. All authors will need to up their game. That means more professional editing, more professional cover design, broader distribution, smart pricing, and more books. Unlike their static print counterparts of yesteryear, ebooks are living, dynamic and immortal creatures. You can upgrade your ebook to make it more available, accessible and enjoyable to readers at any time.

5. Publishers, in search of Black Swans, will lose authors to self-publishing platforms

Publishers are in the business of selling books, not publishing books.

The dirty business of publishing is simply the means to the bookselling ends. The publishing industry has always been built around a model of scarcity and exclusivity. Publishers want to acquire and publish only those titles they think have the greatest commercial potential. They reject all the rest as riff raff, and then they carefully meter out their chosen books in seasonal catalogs.

Publishers have built barriers - let's call them dams and dykes and parapets - to protect against the hoards of aspiring writers seeking publication. Publishers require writers to work through agents, who are charged with identifying titles publishers will want to publish. Many top-tier agents reject 5,000 authors for every author they sign on. Publishers still reject many of the agented books as well.

Big publishers see the great unwashed masses of aspiring authors as a problem, and these walls insulate them from the problem. Publishers are simply unable to take a risk on every author. They realize most of these books don't have strong commercial potential, and on that count they're correct.

Publishers devote tremendous energy and expense trying to build barriers to hold back the flood, but in the process of rejecting the riff raff they're also rejecting the unrecognizable future breakouts. These breakouts are the Black Swans of publishing, to borrow a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of The Highly Improbable. As described by Taleb, a Black Swan event is unexpected, unseen, unanticipated, improbable, and unpredictable. When it hits, it turns everything upside down and changes the world forever.

Since most books fail, we can think of a true breakout book as a Black Swan event. The newly hatched Black Swans are invisible to the publisher because they're hiding in a sea of baby black geese. By sheer luck, numbers and some skill, Publishers pick out a few of the swans, but miss the others. Only the full marketplace of readers can reliably identify the black swans. In the dark ages of publishing, prior to five years ago, the baby swans were culled by publishers, denied any chance to reach readers. How many great classics have been lost to humanity simply because publishers missed the black swans?

This philosophy and attitude among large publishers that "most authors are a problem" and are unworthy of publishing is deep-seated. Yes, most authors don't sell well. Most authors published by big publishers don't sell well either, and therefore are unprofitable to publishers.

The secret to capturing the Black Swans is to embrace all authors. It's what the free ebook self-publishing platforms do. Ebook self publishing platforms, whether our own at Smashwords or those operated by the ebook retailers, allow us to take a risk on every writer, the swans and geese alike. I believe every writer is special, and every writer has a right to publish. I believe every book is valuable to the world regardless of commercial potential, and only readers can determine what's worth reading.

Until publishers learn to honor, respect and embrace every writer, unequivocally and independent of perceived commercial merit, they'll continue to lose the Black Swans to the ebook self publishing platforms, and they'll continue to disenfranchise writers. Publishers can't embrace authors with platitudes. To succeed at self-publishing, the publisher must learn to embrace authors in a way that the publisher's interests and author's interests are properly aligned. Proper alignment is only possible if publishers help authors sell books, and if the money flows from publisher to author. If money flows from author to publisher, that publisher is a parasite.

6. Overall ebook prices will decline, though author brands will retain pricing power

It's simple economics. Excess supply of books, unlimited supply of alternative non-book media forms, and limited supply of reader eyeballs means that the producers of books - authors and publishers - will continue to compete on price. When quality is equal, price is one of the dominant levers (convenience and selection are the other two) that drives consumer behavior.

Will book prices fall to zero as authors and publishers compete for readers? No. But authors and publishers must compete against free. Luckily, what writers write is completely unique. This unique creation has value, and if it's desirable to readers, and the perceived desirability outweighs the price, readers will pay. Readers will favor trusted author brands. That means your opportunity as a writer is to build your brand.

7. Passive discoverability trumps other book marketing methods

Most books don't sell well, even when backed by expensive marketing. It's really tough for authors to earn a return on their marketing investment. Many marketing service providers will happily take thousands of dollars in fees, yet deliver few sales.

Authors need a better solution, and part of that solution is to recognize that marketing isn't quite as important as most people think it is. Marketing is a catalyst, not a fuel. The book, and the customer's reaction to that book, is the fuel. In the year ahead, authors and publishers will place increased attention on passive discoverability.

Passive discoverability is all about making books findable by readers. The secret is to apply viral catalysts, a term I introduced and describe in detail in The Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success. A viral catalyst is something that makes a book more available, discoverable, accessible, and enjoyable to readers.

Think of your books as an object, and attached to the object are dozens of dials and levers (the viral catalysts) you can twist, turn and tweak to make your book more available, discoverable and enjoyable. When you get the combination just right, reader word of mouth kicks in and propels your book sales forward.

Think of these viral catalysts as beacons that are working 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, to broadcast your book's virtues to readers looking for a book just like what you published. The beacons will shine on ebook retailer shelves, and readers will discover them through retailer-operated merchandising systems, search engines, reader reviews, and social media hyperlinks. By leveraging viral catalysts for passive discoverability, your book becomes findable forever.

8. Tablets will become the new paper as E-Ink becomes niche product

In the brief history of ebooks, 2012 was the first year that dedicated e-reading devices saw a unit volume decline, even though overall ebook consumption continued to grow. The cause? Readers are showing a preference for multi-function tablets like the iPad, according to a report released this month issued by iSuppli.

In 2013, this trend is likely to continue as readers are drawn to tablets, and these tablets become faster, better and cheaper. It's unclear how this will impact ebook sales.

On the one hand, as books become woven into the hyperlinked fabric of the Internet, books will become more available and discoverable to more people, even to people who aren't looking for them. On the other hand, these tablets are media consumption devices, which means books will once again have to compete against an ADHD-inspired array of alternative media consumption options.

With dedicated e-reading devices, such distractions are less prevalent. E-Ink devices won't go away because they still provide compelling advantages for many consumers.

9. Global will be the biggest story of 2013 for indie authors

The market for English-language ebooks outside the US will eclipse the US market in 2013.

As I predicted above, in the US, ebooks as a percentage of the overall trade book market will probably reach about 45% in 2013, up from approximately 30% in 2012, 19% in 2011, 8% in 2010, 3% in 2009, and 1% in 2008 (these are Association of American Publishers numbers, with 2012 and 2013 my personal estimates).

This means that while the US market is still growing, the growth is slowing. Ebooks broke out first in the US market. Now they're breaking out internationally as other countries enter the exponential phase of growth for their ebook markets.

Indie authors have a similar ground floor window of opportunity to become big fish in the small pond of these fast-growing markets, like the early indie ebook authors had in the US market in 2008 and 2009. And like the market of 2008 and 2009, larger publishers were slow to enter the party. Today on the global front, they're struggling to overcome decades of legacy territory rights practices that have hamstrung their ability to distribute ebooks to all countries. They'll get there soon.

As an indie author, you can get there now.

The rise of global also means that authors should modify their marketing to become more world-aware. Each store in each country has its own reviews and its own web page addresses. A great review at Apple or Amazon in the US is invisible to customers shopping in their UK stores (Amazon provides a link in their UK store to view additional reviews in the US store, though US customers aren't given a link to view reviews from other Amazon stores). Each store in each country represents its own micro-market, and your opportunity is to build fans everywhere. On your blog and website, start providing direct hyperlinks to the different stores operated by each retailer in each of your primary countries. Outside the US, English-language authors will do best in Australia, the UK, Canada, and New Zealand, but you'll still sell into other countries. Your social media marketing on Facebook, Twitter or on your blog will cross most international boundaries.

10. Amazon, Apple, Barnes & Noble and Kobo will redouble global expansion efforts

It's a land grab. In 2012, all the major ebook retailers expanded their global operations. Amazon is now in about 10 countries. The Apple iBookstore is operating stores in 50 countries. Barnes & Noble entered the U.K. in 2012, and will probably make 2013 the year it goes completely global. Kobo has always had an international focus, and following its acquisition by globally-minded ecommerce juggernaut Rakuten in Japan, I expect more global expansion from them in 2013.

11. Apple iBookstore will be the breakout story of 2013 ebook retailing

With little fanfare, the Apple iBookstore dramatically expanded its international reach in 2012, starting the year with iBookstores in 19 countries and ending the year with 50 countries - far outpacing the global expansion of other retailers. Internationally, iBookstore sales surged on the strength of explosive growth in iPads and iPhones, and with readers showing preference for multi-function devices over single-purpose e-readers.

My company supplies over 100,000 ebooks each to the Apple iBookstore and most of its competitors except Amazon. For the month of November 2012, sales of Smashwords-distributed titles at the Apple iBookstore more than tripled compared to the same month a year ago, a growth rate that exceeded the growth at other retailers in our distribution network.

Despite the fantastic growth at Apple, many authors still treat Apple as an afterthought compared to the bigger book retailing brand of Amazon, and to some extent Barnes & Noble. It's not uncommon for many authors, in their email signatures, blogs, websites, and other social media networks to link only to their books at Amazon. This is a mistake because when analysts start estimating ebook market share for 2012 in 2013, I think Apple's growth will turn heads.

The growth of the Apple iBookstore is inextricably linked to the growth of Apple devices, such as the iPad, iPad Mini, iPhone, and iPod Touch. If sales of these devices continue to surge, the iBookstore will enjoy above-market growth rates. Apple's primary competitors, Amazon and Barnes & Noble, both offer competing tablets, which, although lower priced, are starting from a disadvantage in that they don't have the hardware and software design experience of Apple, or the same fanatic brand loyalty.

It's interesting to think that the winner of the ebook retailing wars may be the company that designs the best e-reading devices. Screens are the new paper.

As 2013 progresses, keep an eye on market share data for the different tablet platforms. If the recent iSuppli data is correct, and if tablets continue to take market share from dedicated E-Ink devices, then the market share numbers will serve as a leading indicator of which retailer is gaining advantage in the ebook marketplace. Two days ago, an industry analyst at Pacific Crest Securities released a report that said his channel sources have provided him data that led him to conclude that the Kindle Fire tablet is selling more poorly than he expected as buyers choose Apple devices instead. If true, it could be a turning point.

Ever since launching the iBookstore in early 2010, Apple has been aggressively adding content and capabilities to their store, and has expanded its global footprint faster than any retailer. Despite their progress, they maintain a low key public profile when it comes to touting their growth and accomplishments. I'm not sure why they've taken this low-key approach. Apple keeps their future plans close to the vest.

Apple has always been supportive of indie authors. They pioneered the agency pricing model, which dramatically increased author earnings over the industry's conventional wholesale model. Agency pricing puts pricing decisions in the hands of authors and publishers, where it belongs. It's counterintuitive to some, but the agency model actually leads to price reductions. It gives authors greater flexibility to compete on price, and earn more at lower prices compared to what they'd earn under the old wholesale model.

Apple's global merchandising team is impressive. They're customer centric. They're giving our authors a seat at the merchandising table. They've been extremely proactive at promoting self-published ebook titles, both individually and within larger creative promotions, such as their Breakout Author promotion that happened in Australia and New Zealand.

Apple's pro-indie merchandising efforts have paid big dividends for Apple. These books are getting great reviews from Apple customers. Indie ebook titles routinely grace the top 10 bestseller lists at Apple iBookstores around the world. Apple's earning millions of well-deserved dollars selling our books, and that makes authors happy.

2013 will be the year people start paying fresh attention to Apple. Thanks to Apple's success, indie authors will gain increased credibility and respect in the publishing industry.

12. Amazon's global ebook market share will decline

Amazon deserves immense credit for catalyzing the ebook revolution. Although Sony beat Amazon to market with a solid e-reader, Amazon helped put ebooks on the map in a way that no other retailer could. In the process, they've helped create livelihoods for many writers who previously faced few options.

That said, Amazon's star could dim in 2013, even as its ebook business grows. Amazon's ebook sales volume will grow significantly in 2013, but their global market share will decline amid increased competition from well-funded competitors such as Apple, Barnes & Noble, Kobo, and others. We've seen it already in the US market. A few years ago, Amazon held about 90% market share in the US. Today, thanks to the rise of its competitors, Amazon's market share has dropped to somewhere around 60% (Amazon doesn't disclose its numbers, so the industry is left to guess the true number).

Amazon also faces a backlash from authors, publishers and partners who have grown weary of Amazon's heavy-handed business practices. Amazon's a fierce competitor and a brilliant strategic player. They play the game of chess like few others. Every move today is calculated based on its impact five years from today. By making moves today to exploit opportunities that don't even exist yet, they have shown an uncanny ability to outflank and outmaneuver their competitors.

Amazon's potential undoing, however, is greed and bullying. They don't just play to win, they play to grind their competitors into bloody submissive pulps. They also have a more expansive, more inclusive definition of their competition than any other ebook industry player. Amazon's working to vertically disintermediate everyone that stands between the content producer (the author) and the content buyer (the customer). In a cover story in Fortune Magazine this month, writer Adam Lashinsky notes that a favorite Jeff Bezos aphorism is "Your margin is my opportunity." That attitude may come to haunt Amazon in 2013.

If Amazon could invent a system to replace the author from the equation, they'd do that too. Actually, it's already happening, though not directly by Amazon's hand. One innovative publisher, ICON Group International, has patented a system that automatically generates non-fiction books. Over 100,000 of these titles are now for sale at Amazon, according to a story at Singularity Hub. As the field of artificial intelligence increases, how long until novelists are disintermediated by machines? It's a preposterous idea worthy of science fiction.

But maybe it's not so preposterous after all. Amazon has already shown a willingness to replace one author with another. Witness their KDP Select program, announced one year ago, which encourages authors to remove their books from Amazon's competitors. The opt-in program aims to remove indie ebooks from the shelves of its retailer competitors, while at the same time making participating authors more dependent upon Amazon.

By providing favorable sales advantage to authors who agree to pull their books from Amazon's competitor, Amazon punishes regular KDP authors who want to maintain uninterrupted distribution across major retailers such as the Apple iBookstore, Barnes & Noble and Sony. How? According to Amazon's own press release issued the month after the launch, participating KDP Select titles earn more than those who don't participate. This means KDP Select books receive preferential discoverability and promotion over non-participating books.

As Amazon enters new markets, as they did this year with India and Brazil, they're making KDP-Select participation a mandatory requirement if authors want to earn the full 70% royalty rate which is otherwise standard in other Amazon territories. 70% is standard at other retailers, and without the corresponding exclusivity strings attached. If authors don't opt in, they earn only 35% of list in these emerging countries.

Exclusivity works to Amazon's advantage, but for the author it's a crapshoot. From the author's perspective, exclusivity carries with it a set of knowns and unknowns, placing authors in the difficult of position of playing Russian Roulette with their careers. The author can't accurately predict or measure what they're giving up by going exclusive, but if they don't go exclusive they don't know what KDP Select benefits they passed up. Even by experimenting with KDP-Select for the minimum three month period, authors are interrupting their platform-building at other retailers.

For some authors, Amazon's attempts at exclusivity speak to their worst fears about the company. Despite the criticism and bad will generated by these policies, Amazon soldiers on, doubling down on its exclusivity strategy. Either we're witnessing Amazon making a strategic blunder, or Amazon sees a future none of the rest of us see. A future where Amazon's the dominant controlling player and any author who wants to reach readers will be forced to do so under the thumb of Amazon's rules, which are already the strictest and most vigorously enforced in the industry. Time will tell.

Jeff Bezos is brilliant, and Amazon is a great company, though I think they'd be better served if they dropped a bit of their crush, kill, destroy, turn-to-bloody-pulp attitude. It's a high risk strategy that will either work well for Amazon, or it"ll blow up. At a minimum, Amazon's "everyone is my competitor" attitude encourages its potential partners, my own company included, to pursue fruitful relationships with kinder, gentler partners.

Amazon's actions, such as their controversial Price Check app, have revealed their intentions to do to all brick and mortar retailers what Wal Mart did to Main Street America. Competitors such as B&N (next item below) or Apple now have an opportunity to strike mutually complementary partnerships with brick and mortar retailers that won't partner with Amazon.

13. Barnes & Noble will rise again like a Phoenix

Barnes & Noble is the Rodney Dangerfield of ebook retailing.

Industry watchers have been predicting the demise of B&N for a few years. Premature causes of death were said to be the rise of Amazon, or the US Department of Justice or European Economic Agency's anti-agency rulings, or B&N's slow global expansion, or their poor cash position.

In 2012, B&N received a $300 million cash infusion from Microsoft, and entered the U.K. with an innovative brick and mortar strategy backed by 2,500 retail outlets. This strategy can't be easily replicated by Amazon because retailers are wary of inviting the Amazon fox into their brick and mortar hen houses.

B&N, by comparison, has a broader palette of synergistic and welcoming partners to choose from, because unlike Amazon, B&N isn't hell bent on vertically disintermediating the retailing of all physical and digital goods in the universe. B&N hired a new global chief, and now stands ready, I predict, to execute an aggressive global expansion in Europe and elsewhere, in symbiotic partnership with allied retailers, that will solidify B&N as one of the top global brands for e-reading.

14. In the self-publishing gold rush, more money will be made in author services than in book sales

With the shift to self-publishing, writers must carry the publishing burdens once borne by traditional publishers, such as the cost of editing, proofing, book production, packaging, and distribution, as well as backoffice tasks such as accounts receivable, accounts payable and year-end tax reporting. Third parties are building businesses to serve the needs of indie authors. Most indie ebooks sell poorly at first, so it's not uncommon that writers will invest an amount of money in their books that far exceeds their near term return.

This is a problem. Writers want to publish books that reach readers, but to reach readers they must produce books that are as good or better than what the big NY publishers are putting out. This means writers must invest time and talent in their books, and if outside talent is required, it usually costs money. With this burgeoning demand for professional publishing services, thousands of service providers will open up virtual author services shops in 2013. The challenge for writers is to procure the highest quality services at the lowest cost. Plenty of scamsters and over-priced service providers will be standing by to help.

The smart Kristine Kathryn Rusch, blogging on December 12 in a posted titled, Writing Like it's 2009, likened what happening today to a gold rush:

Here's the thing: From 2008-2010, e-publishing on the early e-readers was a gold rush. And if you look at the history of any gold rush, you'll see a familiar pattern.

A few people hit it big in an unexpected way. They make a small fortune. They broadcast the news of that fortune, and then hundreds, if not thousands, of people follow. They hook their horses to their wagons, drop everything, and head to the land of riches, expecting to become millionaires with very little work.

And what happens? Millionaires. Hundreds of them. Only those millionaires don't get rich panning for gold. They open the supply shops, they serve food to the miners, they supply blue jeans and work boots and equipment, hay for the horses and rooms to rest in at night.

It's not a coincidence that S&S [Simon & Schuster] has opened up an expensive do-it-yourself shop in indie-publishing land. It makes perfect sense. Think of S&S as the chain hotel who heard that there was a fortune to be made by offering rooms to miners who are too tired to pitch their own tents.

There's gold in them thar hills, folks. And the gold is for business people who know their way around a profit-and-loss statement.

By the way, scammers always show up in the middle of a gold rush. Scammers know they can make a fortune off the ignorant. We're in the scammer/chain hotel phase of this gold rush.

I think Rusch nailed it.

How can writers protect themselves? I have two recommendations:

Pinch Your Pennies - As I write in Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success, pinch your pennies. As a self published author, you're the publisher. You're running a business. The lifeblood of a business is profit, because profit generates cash. If you run out of cash, you go out of business. Since profit equals sales minus expenses, and sales are difficult to predict and often minimal, it's important to minimize expenses. DIY as much as possible, especially when you're starting out. Invest your sweat equity (your time and talent) first. If you can't afford editing, barter for editing, and leverage beta readers. Once you start earning a profit, then carefully reinvest. Never borrow money to finance your ebook publishing adventure. Never spend money you need to pay the mortgage or to put bread on your table.

Work directly with the individual providing your service - When you hire professionals (cover artist, editor, proofreader, marketing pro), hire the professional directly, so your money goes straight to them, and not to some author services firm who will farm the job out to someone then mark up the fee several-fold. Low-cost ebook formatters and cover designers offer services starting around $50.00 (that's all!) when you hire the freelancer directly, at-cost.

Writers beware. This brings me to my next prediction.

15. Pearson/Penguin/Random House/Simon & Schuster will either cut bait on Author Solutions or ride this anchor to the bottom of the sea

In 2012, Pearson, the parent of Penguin, acquired Author Solutions (ASI), an author services company backed by Bertram Capital, a private equity firm in Silicon Valley. Author Solutions maintains a less-than-stellar reputation, right alongside fellow vanity publishing posterboy, PublishAmerica. Blogger Emily Suess has been running a series of damning posts on her blog for months where she exposes ASI's deceptive business practices.

Author Solutions is a provider of over-priced author services, and that's about the kindest description I can share. They earn 2/3 or more of their income selling over-priced services to authors, and these services are of nebulous value and invariably print-centric. According to Publishers Weekly, ASI's ebook sales accounted for only $1.3 million, or 1.3% of their $100 million in revenue for 2011, and that was with a staff of about 1,600 employees, 1,200 of whom are in the Philippines, where the bulk of their work is performed. By contrast, Smashwords will do around $15 million in ebook sales in 2012 with 1/100th the staff.

Author Solutions is not in the business of selling author books to readers. Instead, they're in the business of exploiting the dreams of newbie authors who don't know better. Pearson/Penguin's acquisition of ASI left me befuddled. Although Pearson/Penguin was smart to recognize that self-publishing represents a tremendous growth area, their acquisition of ASI - a company that helped put the "V" in Vanity - demonstrated an utter disregard for the best interests of writers. It demonstrated a deep-seated cynicism that valued the money in authors' pockets ahead of good business ethics. Newbie writers who don't know better are easily exploited by the heavy-handed sales tactics of ASI, as so aptly documented by Emily Suess. Yes, Pearson/Penguin can make money with ASI. But it's blood money. With the acquisition of ASI, Pearson/Penguin made the decision to become a blood sucking parasite. The indie author community raised a stink when the news came out. Did publishers listen?

The acquisition placed Pearson/Penguin in an inextricable pickle. As I blogged in July in a post titled, How a Traditional Publisher Could Harm a Writer's Career, if they want their $116 million acquisition to pay off, they'll have to continue the same author-fleecing services and business practices, and by doing so they'll tarnish the once sterling Penguin brand. In the proudest tradition of the great publishers, money should flow from book buyers to publisher to author, not from author to publisher. If Pearson/Penguin decided to clean up the act of ASI, they'd find themselves facing a print-centric business model that doesn't help authors, and the specter of huge operating losses due to what is likely ASI's $100 million operating expense overhead. It's a lose/lose situation, no matter how Pearson/Penguin proceeds.

But wait, there's more. On October 29, 2012, Pearson announced a deal that will help it divest itself of Penguin, and along with Penguin, the newly acquired ASI albatross, by merging it into a new joint venture with Bertlesmann's Random House division. Soon, to borrow a phrase from Douglas Adams, ASI will become "Somebody Else's Problem" when Random House gains majority ownership over Penguin/ASI. You'd think Random House would have been paying attention to the bad smell surrounding ASI.

And yet there's more. Another Big 6 publisher was asleep at the wheel. Despite all the author community outrage over the ASI acquisition, less than a month later, on November 27th, Simon & Schuster decided to launch its own self-publishing "imprint" called Archway Publishing - sporting a logo that proudly advertises it's powered by none other than Author Solutions. They're going to sell publishing packages priced up to $25,000. $25,000? How could Pearson/Penguin/Random House/Simon & Schuster perpetuate such a massive injustice upon writers? Do they really have so little respect for writers? The pattern is very disappointing for those of us who want to see the big publishers survive and thrive.

16. The Big 6 will become the Big 4 as bean counters take over the farm

Warning: I get a bit wonky with financial acronyms at the end of this one (that's what I get for going to business school).

Pearson, the UK media conglomerate parent of Penguin, and Bertelsmann, the German media conglomerate parent of Random House, agreed to merge Penguin and Random House into a joint venture in 2013, pending regulatory approval. I think the union will produce an ugly baby. The convoluted financial details contain a circus of financial machination hula-hoop acrobatics and if-then-what variables that only their proud investment banker parents could love.

The merger's benefit to authors, or to the employees of the publishers, is less clear. Ostensibly, the merger would give the larger combined firm more negotiating leverage against the channel, and specifically Amazon. I don't buy that, unless they're willing to pull their books from Amazon. Amazon will either laugh in their face and say no to their demands, or will say yes while it continues developing direct relationships with authors, thereby neutering publishers by denying them the sustenance of future authors.

Within a couple of years, it'll be game over for publishers who think they can push the channel around, because there will be hundreds of thousands of other high-quality indie-published books to take their place. I had a conversation earlier this week with a smart publishing industry veteran who told me, "Publishers created Amazon, so I don't know why they're acting so surprised now."

What the merger really says is that the shareholders, parent companies and executives of Big 6 publishers are starting to view their catalogs as no- or low-growth assets to be milked, when in fact they should instead be focused on growing the farm for future harvests. I expect them to eventually saddle the operation with more debt (their merger press release contains an option for that very outcome), and then merge and eliminate redundant operations (lay off employees in HR, finance, editing, marketing, sales, distribution, merge or eliminate imprints) to reduce costs so they can make the debt servicing expenses.

Each of the publishers is sitting on a goldmine of back catalog, ready to be milked. Perhaps the investment bankers will push a path forward for some publishers to stop or reduce their publishing exposure altogether, and instead become asset manager custodians of their backlists. They can abandon big print runs, move to POD (print on demand), digitize their lists, focus on distribution and marketing, cut back on new title acquisitions, impose stricter reversion clauses upon authors so digital books never go out of print, and harvest the profits that will come from the reduced operating expenses of not having to be a publisher. Although this would create an insanely profitable business for their shareholders and debt holders, it would also mark a capitulation of sorts.

None of these moves help authors at a time when authors want more support from their publishers, not less. It also limits employment opportunities for the brain trust of passionate book lovers who work at the big publishers, and who now risk having their livelihoods eliminated in the name of "strategic realignments" and other unpleasant euphemisms for lost jobs.

Expect the remaining Big 4 to get frisky with the mating and M&A dance. I also wouldn't be surprised to see one or more of the remaining Big 4 acquired by private equity firms. Private equity firms typically acquire operating companies with mostly borrowed cash, and then saddle the company with debt. With little of their own money invested, the private equity firms generate high ROE - return on equity, even when the company's profits drop under the weight of debt servicing obligations.

They'll cut costs to raise EBITDA, another favorite and dehumanizing finance metric that stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation. Finance folk love EBITDA as a tool to determine how much debt they can load on a company before they choke it to death with debt payments. More debt means higher ROE, but if they pile on too much debt, the company dies. Think of EBITDA calculations as a form of auto-erotic asphyxiation administered by bean counters. It's a risky business. These financial metrics, when abused, are dehumanizing and will sap the soul of publishers. Watch out, bean counters are in control now.

17. Stigma of Big 6 (or Big 4 or Big 3) publishers will increase as prior stigma of self-publishing evaporates

The stigma of self-publishing is disappearing. Each week, indie authors are hitting the ebook bestseller lists at all the major ebook retailers, as well as lists maintained by the New York Times, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, GalleyCat, and Digital Book World. A year ago, this was rare. A year from now, it'll be commonplace. The future bestsellers of tomorrow are the indie authors of today. Indie authors are poised to take more market share in 2013 as the next generation of writers turns its back on traditional publishing.

Five years ago, back in the dark ages of publishing, self-publishing was seen as the option of last resort. It was seen as the last refuge for failed authors. Publishers controlled the printing press, the access to distribution, and the knowledge to professionally publish, which made authors entirely dependent upon publishing gatekeepers. Today, these three elements of professional publishing are fully democratized.

Indie authors now have the tools to publish faster, smarter and more effectively than traditional publishers. Many indies are publishing books of equal or greater quality than what's put out by large publishers. Indies are pricing more aggressively, and as a result they're building bigger platforms faster than many traditionally published authors who are now disadvantaged. As ebooks continue to take market share, and as physical brick and mortar shelf space disappears, the allure of traditional publishers will fade further.

At the same time the stigma of self-publishing evaporates, the stigma of traditional publishing is increasing. Authors are questioning what big publishers can do for them that they can't already do on their own. Authors are realizing, as mentioned earlier, that the traditional publisher business practices (high prices, slow release schedules, limited marketing support, etc) can actually harm a writer's career.

Traditional publishers are also showing themselves skilled at adding their own self-inflicted injuries. Traditional publishing's cynical misadventure into vanity publishing will stain the reputation of all big NY publishers, even those that haven't made the same mistakes. That's sad, because I think the world of books would be better off if we could maintain a healthy and vibrant ecosystem of large publishers in addition to smaller ones.

18. EPUB 3 will disappoint

EPUB 3, ratified in October 2011 as the next generation of the popular open industry EPUB file format, is likely to see slow and disappointing adoption in 2013.

The new standard offers a range of promising benefits, such as improved book navigation, improved language support, support for fixed format books, more sophisticated metadata management, and improved support for multimedia. Unfortunately, such promised benefits come at a cost to authors, publishers, device makers, distributors, ebook stores, and consumers in the form of increased complexity, new workflows and questionable backward-compatibility between EPUB3 books and prior reading systems.

If the marketplace concludes that the benefits of EPUB 3 outweigh the costs, it'll gain traction in the marketplace. Otherwise, we'll either see slow adoption, increased file format fragmentation, or proprietary file formats if major retailers decide they can support these next-generation capabilities more effectively on their own, outside the purview of the IDPF standard-setting body. If EPUB 3 increases production complexity for authors, publishers and the digital supply chain, we could also see a decline in the number of titles released. As a member of the IDPF, the standards-setting organization that manages EPUB, we support standards, though I do have cost/benefit concerns about the transition.

19. Ebook subscription offerings will face uphill slog

In 2012 there was a wave of promising startups talking about creating the "Spotify of Ebooks," or the "Netflix of ebooks." I admit, at first the notion of an all-you-can-read smorgasbord of reading material held appeal to me. I'm always interested to consider new models of book distribution that help us achieve our overall mission of connecting our authors with readers. However, as the year progressed and new subscription hopefuls came to the fore, I found my enthusiasm waning.

Ebook prices are declining as authors and publishers compete on price. Indies have released thousands of high-quality books priced at FREE, more than any voracious book lover could ever read in a lifetime. Traditional publishers are dropping their ebook prices to become more competitive - even independent of the DoJ's ill-conceived crackdown on agency publishers. Ebooks are already free or dirt cheap, and likely to become cheaper as big publishers drop their prices, so the potential advantages of an all-you-can-read buffet are diminishing. The challenge for some enterprising entrepreneur is to find a method of connecting books to readers that's more effective and profitable than what the major retailers are already doing, and that's a tall order because the retailers are doing an awesome job.

20. Indie authors poised to capture a growing percentage of library ebook market

Libraries are the forgotten stepchildren of the publishing industry, yet they operate 230,000 public library buildings across the globe where patrons come to find, read and enjoy books. Libraries purchase hundreds of millions of dollars worth of books each year, making books available and discoverable to all readers. They promote a culture of reading among readers which benefits the entire publishing industry, and they're where millions of readers first discover their new favorite authors. Libraries are engines for book discovery and consumer retail purchases.

Traditional publishers have been wary to distribute ebooks to libraries, for fear that library ebook sales will cannibalize publishers' ebook and printbook sales through traditional retail channels. As a result, many publishers refuse to sell to libraries, or will sell to libraries under onerous terms.

Publishers' refusal to provide adequate ebook support for libraries has created a window of opportunity for self-published authors, and it's a window many of us are looking to pry open even further in 2013. Self-published authors will find their books in greater demand in 2013 as libraries implement ebook checkout systems from companies like Baker & Taylor, 3M and Overdrive, or as they develop their own home-grown ebook checkout systems under what's known as Jamie LaRue's "Douglas County Model." Califa, a California consortium of public libraries, is one such library system purchasing self-published ebooks under the DCL model, and they're devoting significant budget.

21. Indie ebooks will start driving more film & television projects

Books have long been a popular source of material for film and television producers. A proven bestseller means that audiences find the story compelling, and this increases the appeal to film and television producers for a couple of reasons:

A successful book creates a built-in audience more likely to want to view the film or television derivative.

A successful book helps lower the risk to the film or television producer because the story has already proven itself an audience-pleaser in the marketplace.

A film or TV deal is great news for the author and publisher, because it sells more books. It helps more prospective readers discover the story or want to read the story again. The dynamic between publishers and film and television producers is not perfect, however. Most books come out 12 months or later after the publisher acquires it, so if a book is sold to film or television before publication, the film/television producers face the risk that they begin production only to learn later that the story didn't resonate with readers.

If you believe that indies are the future of publishing, and that the world's best and most commercially successful future stories will come from indies, then it's inevitable indie authors will begin to fill the production pipelines of film and television producers. Indie authors - not hamstrung by the slow book release schedules of traditional publishers - are reaching the market instantly with stories better tuned to audience desires. Indies achieve instant market feedback in the form of sales data, reviews and retailer bestseller rank. Expect many indie ebooks to be optioned for film and television in 2013. Maybe one or more of the 9,000+ titles uploaded to Smashwords in the last 30 days will find its way to a theater near you.

###

Thanks for reading. I think this was my longest post ever. Believe it or not, I had other predictions I left out regarding the ebook supply chain, retailer-operated publishing platforms, and more.

Just for kicks, here are couple of my past predictions:
2011 Predictions at Huffington Post (published Dec 28, 2010)
10-Year Predictions at GalleyCat By Mark Coker (published Jan 4 2010)

Did my crystal ball miss anything? Please add your own predictions below.

Do E-book Customers Prefer Longer or Shorter Books?

2012-04-26T18:43:09-04:00

Back in the early days of ebooks, it was common to hear experts prognosticate that ebook customers would prefer shorter books.

After all, the theory went, ebook readers are on the go, more subject to the ADHD distractions of the Internet, are reading in shorter bursts on mobile devices, and would be reluctant to spend too much time reading on screens. It seemed a plausible theory.

But is this really true?

Last month for a presentation at the RT Booklovers convention in Chicago I decided to crunch the numbers.

As an ebook distributor, my company Smashwords is drowning in a figurative sea of ebook sales data. We distribute over 100,000 ebooks of all lengths from self-published authors and small publishers to retailers such as the Apple iBookstore, Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo and Diesel.

I analyzed a nine-month chunk of sales data, aggregated across multiple Smashwords retailers, to determine if there were potential data-driven metrics that might reveal the answer to this and other common questions regarding reader preferences. The data encompassed millions of dollars in book sales for a data set of slightly more than 50,000 books.

The answer? The data indicates a strong preference among customers for longer e-books.

The chart at left analyzes our 1,000 bestselling ebooks across all genres and categories, broken into ranges of top 10, top 25, top 50, etc.

It paints a remarkably straight line that indicates as the word count decreases, sales decrease. Our top 10 bestselling titles averaged 121,000 words. It's a length that most print publishers would discourage because of the cost of printing, shipping and handling.

It's worth noting that print publishers typically won't publish extremely short works either, simply because they need a minimum number of printed pages to create a solid spine upon which they can print.

With ebooks, however, there is no paper. An ebook publisher can create an ebook of 500 words (possibly a single poem) or an epic title of 500,000 words. Now that so many ebooks of all lengths are published, we finally have the data to start understanding what readers really prefer.

The next chart provides a more detailed perspective. In this chart above, I focus on specific bands of bestsellers, so the top 1-50, top 1,000-2,000, top 5,000-6,000, and top 20,000-21,000. By examining books within each band, we gain a better understanding of how readers are reacting within each range. The top 1-50 titles average 106,000 words, whereas the books ranked #20,000 through #21,000 -- a veritable no-man's land of poor sales and obscurity -- averaged under 50,000 words.

For additional perspective not shown in the chart, of the 119,000 ebooks published today at Smashwords, the average word count is 37,000 words. Considering that our average word count is 65% lower than the average word count for our top 50 bestsellers, it strengthens my believe that readers are going out of their way to search out and purchase longer ebooks.

If you enjoy geeking out on data, I've embedded my presentation deck below. Most of this data has never been released before by anyone.

In addition to ideal word length, I also sought to answer other questions related to reader preferences such as:

If e-books never go out of print, how do sales develop over time?

How do individual titles develop at a single retailer?

Do romance readers prefer a different word count?

What word count do erotica readers prefer?

What impact does price have on unit sales?

What are the most common price points for self-published ebooks?

What price range earns the author the most money?

What does the indie ebook sales distribution curve look like?

What's the optimal price per word?

How Data-Driven Decisions *Might* Help Indie Ebook Authors Reach More Readers

Reader preference for longer form ebooks speaks well for the future of books. Reading is an active, participatory activity between reader and book. The magic -- whether the reader's desire is to achieve pleasure or knowledge or both -- takes place inside the reader's mind. This holds true for both fiction and non-fiction.

In fiction, the power of long form is even more pronounced. Long-form fiction allow writers to create imaginary worlds the reader doesn't want to leave. This power to move mind and imagination isn't possible with shorter form media such as tweets and Facebook posts. Great fiction uses simple but elaborately crafted words on paper or screen to creates sights, sounds, smells and sensations more vivid than reality.

If you're a reader, ebooks open up the opportunity for you to discover new worlds previously unavailable by print-constrained publishing.

If you're a writer or publisher, go forth and create epic worlds for your readers. Your readers are waiting.

Does Agency Pricing Lead to Higher eBook Prices?

2012-03-29T16:20:10-04:00

The U.S. Department of Justice is considering suing Apple and five large U.S. publishers for allegedly colluding to raise the price of ebooks.

At the heart of the issue, I suspect, is concern over the agency pricing model. Agency pricing allows the publisher to set the retail price of their book.

Retailers don't discount agency books. Retailers earn a commission of 30 percent of list price for acting as the seller's agent, and then the seller (in this case the author, publisher or distributor) earns 70 percent of the list price.

When Apple launched its iBookstore in early 2010, it brought with it the agency pricing model. Large publishers, eager to find a white knight counterbalance to Amazon's then 90 percent market share in ebooks, embraced the agency model with gusto. Concurrent with the launch of Apple's iBookstore, five large publishers held a gun to the heads of all the ebook retailers: Give us the same agency pricing terms or we'll stop supplying our books to your stores.

Retailers at the time were none too-pleased with the ultimatum. In the end, all the retailers relented rather than risk losing access to these bestselling books.

Two days ago, I had a conference call with the Department of Justice. Although my company, Smashwords, is not a party to this potential lawsuit, I felt it was important that the DoJ investigators hear the Smashwords side of the story, because any decisions they make could have significant ramifications for our 40,000 authors and publishers, and for our retailers and customers.

As background, Smashwords was among the first distributors selected by Apple to supply their store with ebooks. On day one of the iPad's launch in early 2010, over 2,000 Smashwords ebooks were live in the Apple iBookstore. In the two years since, we have grown to become one of the world's largest distributors of ebooks from self-published authors and small independent presses. In addition to Apple, we supply nearly 100,000 ebooks to Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo, the Diesel eBook Store and Baker and Taylor. Since late 2010, we have distributed exclusively under the agency model.

My goal was to express why I think it's critically important that the DoJ not take any actions to weaken or dismantle agency pricing for ebooks. I shared with the DoJ new, never-before-seen pricing data that casts doubt upon the meme that agency pricing leads to higher consumer prices. I'll now share this same data with you now.

In preparation for the DoJ call, we assembled once-a-month snapshots of the Smashwords catalog at the Apple iBookstore between October 2010 and March 2012. Our data captures the average price of our titles in the iBookstore, and the number of titles listed.

I'm sharing four data sets. The first data set, at left, shows the number of Smashwords titles for sale in the Apple iBookstore. As you can see, the numbers have grown steadily. I'm not aware of any other agency pricing study that analyzes such a large body of data.

In the next data set, we plotted the percentage of books priced at FREE by our authors and publishers. Apple, like several other retailers, happily carries free ebooks, most of which are supplied by indie (self-published) authors and small presses.

As you can see from the chart, the number grew from 8.45 percent in October 2010 to 9.60 percent this month.

Why would authors and publishers give away complete books when they have the power to price at any price? The reason is because FREE is a powerful marketing tool for platform building, and for introducing new readers to an author's backlist.

In the next chart, I aggregate all books, both FREE books and priced books, to calculate the average price of the books in the catalog.

We've seen the average price of books in our catalog drop 28.6 percent from $4.16 in October 2010 to $2.97 today.

You might wonder how an author can possibly earn a respectable income selling a $3.00 ebook. The answer lies in the agency model. Under agency, an indie author earns 60-70 percent of the list price as their royalty, so about $2.00. To earn that same amount of money as a traditionally published author, the ebook would have to be priced over $11.00 (large publishers pay their ebook authors 12.5-17.5 percent of the list price as royalty).

In the next data set, we removed the free titles to identify the true average price for priced books in our catalog at Apple.

The average prices have dropped 25 percent from $4.55 in October 2010 to $3.41 today. At Smashwords, an author or publisher earns $2.04 on that $3.41 ebook. By contrast, a traditionally published author would earn about 45 cents for each $9.00 mass market paperback sold.

Ebooks, combined with the agency pricing model and the power of self-publishing, allow indie authors to set lower prices yet still earn more per unit sold.

Back in 2009, here at The Huffington Post I wrote a blog titled, "Why We Need $4.00 Books." I called on publishers to drop ebooks to $4.00 because I thought ebooks could enable the profitable delivery of low cost books. That day arrived for Smashwords authors and publishers a year ago.

The $3.41 is a really interesting number, for a couple reasons:

It shows that authors and publishers, left to their own free will, are pricing their books lower in this highly competitive market. Sure, they could all try to fleece customers by pricing their books at $20.00 or $30.00, but customers won't let them.

$3.41 is remarkably close to the average price paid for Smashwords books purchased at Barnes & Noble during the last 30 days. The B&N number: $3.16. I looked at every Smashwords book sold at Barnes & Noble between February 28 and March 27, then calculated the average price. This means Smashwords authors are pricing their books close to what customers want to pay. The median price (represents the midpoint, where an equal number of books sold at lower prices and and equal number sold at higher prices) was $2.99.

Over the last two years, my appreciation for the agency model has grown as I've come to fully understand its benefits for our authors, publishers, retailers and customers. Here's why I support agency:

Agency puts the authors and publishers in control over their retail price and their promotions. This gives authors and publishers the freedom to coordinate promotions across all retailers for reasons decided by the author or publisher.

Publishers earn 60-70 percent of the retail list price as their earnings, vs. 35-50 percent under the traditional wholesale pricing model. This gives authors and publishers the freedom (should they choose to exercise it) to price their books lower, yet still earn the same or more income from the sale of each unit. This allows indie authors and small presses to compete more effectively against the books of Big 6 publishers, who price their books on the high end. Lower prices make books more affordable and more accessible to more potential customers, leading to a virtuous cycle of higher unit sales at higher profit levels which leads to more earnings for authors and publishers.

Agency provides our retailer partners a fair, predictable commission of 30 percent. These retailers are investing millions of dollars -- sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars -- to attract more readers to more books. They earn every penny. We want them all to build profitable businesses selling indie ebooks.

Agency creates a level playing field for all ebook retailers. It prevents deep-pocketed retailers or device-makers from using predatory pricing practices to sell books at below cost in an attempt to bleed their competitors' finances dry, or in attempt to snuff out new competitors before smaller startups gain a foothold in the market.

Agency forces retailers to compete on customer experience rather than price. Retailers who win will be those who do the best job of attracting customers to their store, and who offer the best algorithms to match readers with books they'll enjoy reading.

Agency forces authors and publishers to be wholly accountable to their customers. If the author or publisher prices their book too high, the market will respond by purchasing lower cost alternatives.

As I explained to the DoJ, I think it's fallacy to believe that agency pricing leads to higher prices. That's like blaming cars for drunk driving accidents. The driver behind the wheel is responsible. If the Big 6 publishers are pricing their books too high (and I think they are), blame the publishers.

It's also fallacy to believe that somehow the wholesale pricing model (where retailers are allowed to discount) is the savior and enabler of low prices. Under the wholesale model, the publisher has always set the price at which they'll sell the book to the bookstore, typically a 50 percent discount to the suggested list price. The $30 front list hardcover you purchase earns the publisher $15, or less. If the publisher decides they need to earn $18.00 on each copy sold, they'll set the suggested list price to $36.00. If one agrees that under normal circumstances, most retailers cannot consistently sell all their books at below cost, then it's reasonable to conclude that even under wholesale, publishers already control the minimum price that all customers, on average, will pay.

Ultimately, regardless of pricing model, lost in the debate over agency vs. wholesale is this simple fact: Customers will decide what they will and will not pay. If the customer believes the publisher set the price of that James Patterson title too high, they'll spend their dollars on lower cost alternatives.

In this highly competitive ebook marketplace, the rules of supply and demand are at play. Despite burgeoning demand of ebooks, the growth of supply is outstripping demand, forcing authors and publishers to compete on price. This is why prices will continue to face downward pressure under the agency model.

In the old world of five years ago, before ebooks were a factor, large publishers controlled the printing press and the access to brick and mortar distribution. It was an oligopolistic environment where a handful of large publishers held incredible sway over the supply and distribution of books.

In the new world of ebooks, large publishers are losing their grip. The printing press and distribution are now democratized. Any writer, anywhere in the world, can now instantly publish an ebook, and within days or weeks have their book available for sale in all the major ebook stores.

If publishers won't supply quality, affordable ebooks, indie authors and small presses will. Look no further than the ebook bestseller lists at any retailer. Most of those $.99, $2.99 and $4.99 bestsellers are published by indie authors and small presses.

I seriously question whether Apple and the big five publishers colluded to raise prices. I think this was simply a matter of Apple inventing a superior pricing model that gave publishers the freedom to set their own prices.

That publishers set their prices too high should not be a matter of concern to the DoJ. As our data indicates, the Darwinian forces of free market consumer behavior will decide book prices over the long run.

For additional statistical analysis and commentary, see my blog where you'll find a longer version of this post.

Amazon Aims to Empty Competitor Shelves of Indie Ebooks

2011-12-09T15:34:21-05:00

Amazon yesterday launched a broadside against competing ebook retailers when it introduced a new program that requires authors to remove their books from competing retailers.

The new service offering, KDP Select, promises participating authors a shot at earning their share of a $500,000 monthly pool of cash. Amazon will distribute the funds to participating authors based on the number of times an ebook is borrowed from Amazon's new lending library.

To entice indie authors, Amazon's FAQ notes that if the author's book accounts for 1.5% of the downloads during the monthly lending period, they'll earn 1.5% of the pot, in this case $7,500.

But there's a catch. Actually, there are multiple catches as outlined in Amazon's Terms and Conditions for the program. Some carry potential anti-competitive and restraint-of-trade implications.

From the time an author enrolls their book in the program, they cannot distribute or sell their book anywhere else. Not the Apple iBookstore, not Barnes & Noble, not Smashwords, not Kobo, not Sony, not even the author's own personal blog or web site. The book must be 100% exclusive to Amazon.

If the author violates Amazon's exclusivity terms at any point during the three-month enrollment period, or if the author unpublishes their book to remove it from the program so they can distribute the book elsewhere, the author risks forfeited earnings, delayed payments, a lien on future earnings, or could face termination of their Kindle Direct Publishing account.

The author's enrollment, and thus their liability to Amazon, automatically renews every three months if they fail to opt out in time.

Let's examine the broader implications of this new program, not only for authors but for the nascent ebook industry as well.

Impact on authors:

Forces the author to remove the book from sale from the Apple iBookstore, Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo, Smashwords and others, thereby causing the author to lose out on sales from competing retailers.

By unpublishing a title from any retailer, the author destroys any accrued sales rank, making their book less visible and less discoverable when and if they reactivate distribution to competing retailers.

Makes the author more dependent upon Amazon for sales. As authors increase their dependence upon Amazon and lose sales from other retailers, they risk becoming tenant farmers on Amazon soil. As history buffs may recall, the great Irish Potato Famine was a result of over-dependence on a single crop grown on soil owned by a single landlord, exacerbated by government policies favoring landlord interests over human interests. Most indie authors would be smart to diversify their crops across multiple retailers.

Amazon has modified the Kindle Direct platform's user interface with the effect of making it almost difficult not to enroll a book, lest the book's account setup appears incomplete. Where they once placed their pull down menu for managing a book's settings, they've now placed the enrollment link. The pull down settings menu is moved to the bottom of their dashboard.

Impact on readers:

Books enrolled in the Amazon program will be removed from all other retailers, thereby forcing readers to patronize Amazon if they want to sample or purchase the book.

Impact on competing retailers:

Harms other retailers by denying them the ability to sell the author's book.

Many authors will permanently stop distributing to Amazon's competitors once they become fully dependent upon Amazon for the lion's share of their earnings.

Motivates more customers to purchase at Amazon since Amazon has this exclusive content.

Discourages formation of new ebook retailers around the world by making it more difficult for new retailers operating outside the US to gain footholds in their respective markets if they lose fair access to the content readers want to read.

Program Limits Competition, Restricts Opportunity for Authors
The new Amazon KDP Select program reeks of predatory business practice. Amazon is leveraging their dominance as the world's largest ebook retailer (and world's largest payer to indie authors) to attain monopolistic advantage by effectively denying its competing retailers access to the books from indie authors. Some of these retailers supply international markets or power the ebook stores of other retailers outside the US, so Amazon's terms harm non-US retailers at a time when Amazon is opening stores in those same countries.

More importantly, the KDP Select program harm authors by limiting their sales opportunities at competing retailers. Since Amazon controls anywhere between 60 and 70% of the ebook market, some authors may underestimate their lost sales opportunity. Their participation in the KDP program will blind them to missed sales opportunities and make them ever-more dependent upon Amazon.

Amazon might argue that indie ebooks today only account for a fraction of overall book industry sales. True, but that fraction is growing quickly as indies scale all the best-seller charts. This trend will continue as more and more professional authors turn their back on traditional book publishers in favor of self-publishing.

Amazon is smart. They understand indies are the future of book publishing. They also understand that by causing authors to remove their titles from distribution and lose sales rank (a key factor in ebook discoverability), they'll severely limit competing retailers' long term ability to drive sales for the authors.

European Commission and US Department of Justice Unwittingly Assist Amazon's March toward Monopoly

Amazon's new service offering comes at a time when the European Commission and even the US Department of Justice are scrutinizing the legality of agency ebook pricing. Agency ebook pricing (this blog post last year explains my company's move to agency pricing, which, ironically, was necessitated by Amazon's price matching practices) allows authors and publishers to set their own price and receive higher royalty rates. Amazon is a long time foe of agency, and as a result is probably enjoying a virtual wet dream as they savor the implications of potential restrictions against the agency model.

If agency pricing is limited or overturned, it would allow Amazon to engage in predatory pricing by selling ebooks at below cost in an effort to drive current and future competitors out of the market. It's ironic that the EC and US DOJ are pursuing these ill-advised campaigns that could lead to less competition in the ebook market, not more.

What the EC and US DOJ fail to realize is that big publishers (the target of these investigations), which (I agree) price their books too high, are becoming less relevant to the future of book publishing as authors lose faith in the myth of big publishing. The problem of high prices from big publishers is not an agency pricing issue, it's a problem of big publishers pricing their books too high.

Agency Pricing Enables Indie Authors and Small Publishers to Lower Prices

Despite fears to the contrary, we see evidence at Smashwords that agency pricing might actually encourage lower book prices. Indies, which are enjoying great benefits from the agency model (my company only distributes to agency retailers), are using agency to offer customers lower prices, not higher prices. The average ebook at Smashwords is priced under $5.00, and we have over 15,000 books priced at FREE. Why do indies price their books lower when they have the freedom to charge anything they want? The reason is that indies realize that consumers appreciate low prices, and as a result these lower prices give indies a competitive advantage over the large publishers.

When an indie author can earn 60-70% of list with agency pricing, they can set a lower price yet still earn more per book sold than if the book was sold under a wholesale pricing model (where the royalty would equal 43-50% of list). As an example, if an author wants to earn $2.00 from each book they sell, at a 70% agency rate they'd price the book at $2.85. Under the wholesale model (50% discount off list), they'd need to price the same book at $4.00 to earn $2.00.

The agency model puts profits in the pockets of the author or publisher, where it belongs, while allowing the retailer to earn a fair profit. Agency pricing relieves retailers from the pressure of competing on price. Instead, agency retailers compete on customer experience, such as creating discovery tools and recommendation systems that help match readers with the books they'd enjoy reading.

How should indie authors respond to Amazon's KDP Select program? Horror might be a good start. It's in every author's best interest to support the development of a vibrant and competitive global ebook retailing ecosystem. With the democratized distribution enabled by indie ebooks, authors should distribute their books to as many retailers as possible. A world of many ebook retailers, all working to connect readers with books, is much preferable to a world where a single retailer restricts access to books.

In the interest of full disclosure, I am not an impartial observer. I have a horse in this game. Smashwords is the world's largest distributor of indie ebooks. We publish and distribute over 90,000 ebooks from 33,000 indie authors and small presses around the world. We exist to serve our authors and publishers by distributing their titles to retailers such as the Apple iBookstore, Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo, the Diesel eBook Store and others. In other words, we supply Amazon's competitors. We also distribute a small number of titles to Amazon. We're eager to supply Amazon our entire catalog, but unlike every other leading ebook retailer, Amazon to date has been unwilling to provide us agency terms.

E-Reading Device Ownership Doubles in Six Months, Says Pew Internet Project

2011-06-27T17:23:41-04:00

Books are moving to a screen near you, says new data released today by Pew Internet Project.

According to Pew, for the month of May 2011, e-reader ownership grew to 12 percent, up from six percent six months ago.

Tablet ownership grew from five percent to eight percent in the same period.

Pew found interesting overlap among those who own both a dedicated e-reading device and a multi-function tablet. Three percent of US adults own both.

While at first glance three percent may seem insignificant, it means 25 percent of dedicated e-reading device owners also own a tablet.

Five percent of consumers own a tablet but not a dedicated e-reader. This means 37.5 percent of tablet owners also own an e-reader.

The report doesn't break out market share for the leading e-reading device makers Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo, or for tablet makers Apple, Samsung and Motorola.

Although not discussed in the Pew report, the lines of distinction between tablets and e-readers will blur over the next six months as e-reading devices adopt more multi-function features.

I predict it's only a matter of time before one of the major e-reading device makers offers consumers a free e-reading device tied to a low-cost monthly subscription plan. Such a service would further accelerate the growth of dedicated e-reading devices. Would you pay $9.95 per month for a free e-reading device?

To access their full report, click here.

Authors: Throw Yourself Upon the Gears of Big Publishing

2011-05-18T11:13:51-04:00

Today's indie author revolution can trace its roots back to the Free Speech Movement that began at U.C. Berkeley forty-seven years ago.

I gave a presentation in Berkeley this past Sunday before the Northern California chapter of ASJA where I argued that book publishing is a matter of free speech.

My visit to Berkeley represented a homecoming of sorts for me. My parents were U.C. Berkeley students in the '60s, I was born there in '65, and my mom, who was active in the Free Speech Movement, brought me me along to many of the demonstrations (first in utero and later in a stroller). I returned in '83-'88 for my business degree.

Mario Savio Channels Author Angst

On December 2, 1964, Mario Savio delivered his now-famous "Bodies Upon the Gears" speech on the steps of Sproul Hall. I embedded it below.

I listened to this speech for the first time this weekend as I prepared my ASJA presentation. I was struck by how Savio's feelings of injustice (he was upset at the university administration for limiting free speech on campus) map so closely to the angst so many authors feel today.

Although I've always felt authors should have the right to publish, it wasn't until I watched the video and reviewed the origins of the Free Speech Movement that I fully grokked the connection between book publishing and free speech.

A tweet or a blog post is free speech, but a book -- especially the long form variety -- is about the weightiest form of deep-thinking, deep-expressing free speech possible.

Big publishing is in the business of selling books, not publishing authors. It wasn't always this way, and there remain welcome exceptions among progressive independent publishers and university presses.

Publishers acquire books they think they can sell. They say no to most authors, thereby preventing those authors from expressing themselves through the communications vehicle that is their book.

I don't fault publishers for saying no. After all, it's not their responsibility to enable your free speech rights when they think Donald Trump, Snookie or Justin Bieber have more important things to say.

Until recently, if a publisher refused to publish an author's book, it limited an author's ability to reach readers. Sure, you could self-publish in print, as the great Dan Poynter has advocated for the last 30 years. However, without distribution access to brick and mortar bookstores -- something the big publishers controlled -- it remains nearly impossible for self-published print authors to reach readers.

The indie e-book revolution has changed all this.

Now, the e-book printing press is free and available to all. Indies enjoy the same (or better) distribution opportunities as traditional publishers. Major e-book retailers such at the Apple iBookstore, Barnes & Noble, Sony and Kobo are all hungry to carry self-published ebooks. Indies can out-compete the big boys with faster time-to-market and lower prices.

The big publisher gatekeeper-as-curator is being replaced by readers, as it should be.

Say No to No

My challenge to you, the author, is to throw yourself upon the gears of big publishing. Take a stand and say no to those who tell you no.

If your book is finished and ready to stand before the judgment of readers, you have the freedom to get it out there today as a self-published e-book.

The tools for ebook publishing and distribution are fully democratized. Any author, anywhere in the world, can publish instantly and at no cost. All you need is a finished well-written and well-edited manuscript, a word processor, an e-book cover image, an Internet connection, and the desire to have your words heard.

Where Do eBook Buyers Live? Alaska Tops Per Capita List

2011-03-30T06:53:43-04:00

Have you ever wondered where the most voracious ebook readers live?

I wondered, so I crunched Smashwords ebook sales data from Barnes & Noble for the three month period beginning December 2010 through March 2011. Some of the numbers are surprising (see the last section of the post for my methodology).

So here's the first set of data, where I look at which states generate the highest (and lowest) overall sales. Obviously, the states with the largest populations are likely to purchase the most ebooks.

US States, Ranked by Aggregate Ebook Purchases

Source: Smashwords data

Rank	State	Percentage of US Ebook Sales
1	TX	8.57%
2	CA	7.99%
3	NY	5.99%
4	FL	5.93%
5	PA	4.13%
6	IL	3.90%
7	VA	3.62%
8	NC	3.36%
9	OH	3.16%
10	MI	3.12%
11	GA	2.88%
12	WA	2.81%
13	NJ	2.77%
14	IN	2.46%
15	MO	2.40%
16	AZ	2.26%
17	CO	2.09%
18	MN	2.07%
19	MA	2.04%
20	WI	1.91%
21	MD	1.91%
22	SC	1.78%
23	TN	1.63%
24	LA	1.52%
25	AL	1.45%
26	UT	1.44%
27	OK	1.38%
28	OR	1.35%
29	IA	1.33%
30	KY	1.31%
31	CT	1.13%
32	KS	1.09%
33	AR	0.98%
34	NV	0.83%
35	MS	0.72%
36	AK	0.66%
37	NE	0.66%
38	ID	0.65%
39	NM	0.65%
40	NH	0.61%
41	ND	0.48%
42	WV	0.45%
43	MT	0.42%
44	RI	0.37%
45	HI	0.32%
46	ME	0.32%
46	SD	0.29%
48	DE	0.29%
49	WY	0.26%
50	VT	0.20%
51	DC	0.09%

Now here's where it gets really interesting. Let's look at per capita consumption. Take a look at the Ebook Per Capita Sales Ratio column. This is how each state stacks up against the others, adjusted for population. Alaska, which ranks #47 in terms of overall population, ranks #1 for per capita ebook purchases measured by dollar volume.

With a score of 2.92, this means they purchase 292% of the per capita than the average state, or almost triple the national average. A score of 100% means average, 200% means double the average, etc. So as you see, Alaska, North Dakota and Utah round out the top three, and Mississippi, California and the District of Columbia round out the bottom three.

Per Capita Ebook Consumption

Source: Smashwords data

Rank	State	Ebook Per Capita Sales Ratio	% of US Ebook Sales	State Pop	US Pop	% US Pop
1	AK	2.92	0.66%	698,473	307,006,550	0.23%
2	ND	2.29	0.48%	646,844	307,006,550	0.21%
3	UT	1.58	1.44%	2,784,572	307,006,550	0.91%
4	WY	1.44	0.26%	544,270	307,006,550	0.18%
5	VA	1.41	3.62%	7,882,590	307,006,550	2.57%
6	NH	1.41	0.61%	1,324,575	307,006,550	0.43%
7	IA	1.36	1.33%	3,007,856	307,006,550	0.98%
8	MT	1.32	0.42%	974,989	307,006,550	0.32%
9	ID	1.30	0.65%	1,545,801	307,006,550	0.50%
10	WA	1.29	2.81%	6,664,195	307,006,550	2.17%
11	CO	1.28	2.09%	5,024,748	307,006,550	1.64%
12	MO	1.23	2.40%	5,987,580	307,006,550	1.95%
13	MN	1.20	2.07%	5,266,214	307,006,550	1.72%
14	SC	1.20	1.78%	4,561,242	307,006,550	1.49%
15	KS	1.18	1.09%	2,818,747	307,006,550	0.92%
16	IN	1.18	2.46%	6,423,113	307,006,550	2.09%
17	OK	1.15	1.38%	3,687,050	307,006,550	1.20%
18	NE	1.12	0.66%	1,796,619	307,006,550	0.59%
19	SD	1.10	0.29%	812,383	307,006,550	0.26%
20	NC	1.10	3.36%	9,380,884	307,006,550	3.06%
21	OR	1.08	1.35%	3,825,657	307,006,550	1.25%
22	RI	1.07	0.37%	1,053,209	307,006,550	0.34%
23	TX	1.06	8.57%	24,782,302	307,006,550	8.07%
24	AZ	1.05	2.26%	6,595,778	307,006,550	2.15%
25	AR	1.04	0.98%	2,889,450	307,006,550	0.94%
26	WI	1.04	1.91%	5,654,774	307,006,550	1.84%
27	LA	1.04	1.52%	4,492,076	307,006,550	1.46%
28	MD	1.03	1.91%	5,699,478	307,006,550	1.86%
29	PA	1.01	4.13%	12,604,767	307,006,550	4.11%
30	VT	1.00	0.20%	621,760	307,006,550	0.20%
31	DE	0.99	0.29%	885,122	307,006,550	0.29%
32	CT	0.99	1.13%	3,518,288	307,006,550	1.15%
33	NM	0.99	0.65%	2,009,671	307,006,550	0.65%
34	FL	0.98	5.93%	18,537,969	307,006,550	6.04%
35	NJ	0.98	2.77%	8,707,739	307,006,550	2.84%
36	NV	0.96	0.83%	2,643,085	307,006,550	0.86%
37	MI	0.96	3.12%	9,969,727	307,006,550	3.25%
38	MA	0.95	2.04%	6,593,587	307,006,550	2.15%
39	AL	0.94	1.45%	4,708,708	307,006,550	1.53%
40	NY	0.94	5.99%	19,541,453	307,006,550	6.37%
41	KY	0.93	1.31%	4,314,113	307,006,550	1.41%
42	IL	0.93	3.90%	12,910,409	307,006,550	4.21%
43	GA	0.90	2.88%	9,829,211	307,006,550	3.20%
44	OH	0.84	3.16%	11,542,645	307,006,550	3.76%
45	TN	0.80	1.63%	6,296,254	307,006,550	2.05%
46	HI	0.77	0.32%	1,295,178	307,006,550	0.42%
46	WV	0.76	0.45%	1,819,777	307,006,550	0.59%
48	ME	0.75	0.32%	1,318,301	307,006,550	0.43%
49	MS	0.75	0.72%	2,951,996	307,006,550	0.96%
50	CA	0.66	7.99%	36,961,664	307,006,550	12.04%
51	DC	0.46	0.09%	599,657	307,006,550	0.20%

Methodology: Here's how I pulled together the numbers above. My company Smashwords is an ebook distributor. We distribute over 20,000 titles to Barnes & Noble. They report to us a breakdown of sales by state. I summed up all Smashwords sales, broken down by state, from Barnes & Noble for the three month period of December, 2010 through February, 2011. Next, I divided each state's sales by the sum of the total to determine the percentage of all ebooks sales from each state. Then I added US population data from the latest US census. Next, I determined what percent of the US population lives in each state. Finally, to determine the how states rank against each other on ebook sales, I normalized the data on a per capita basis. I did this by dividing each state's percentage of overall sales they represent by the percentage of the US population they represent. Dizzy yet? This gave me the final, coolest numbers of them all, the normalized measure of per capita ebook consumption for each state that you see above.

Poking holes in my data: This data only looks at sales through Barnes & Noble. It doesn't take into account the geographic distribution of B&N's physical stores (this might impact where they've sold nooks, which would then impact customer counts). It doesn't take into consideration B&N's market share in each state. It doesn't take into consideration the age, sex, per capita income levels or language breakdowns of each state's population, or the penetration of broadband or dial-up access. I don't disclose the unit sales represented by these three months of sales, or the aggregate sales value (though I can tell you it's a statistically significant number). Since the average price of a Smashwords ebook is under $4.99, this data may not accurately represent the geographic sales behavior of higher priced books.

I published my raw data online over at Slideshare, where you can access it as as spreadsheet. I invite the true statisticians among you to download my numbers as a starting point for further number crunching. For example, the US Census Data page, where I gathered the population data, has other interesting data sets you can throw against my data, such as median household income, age of population (under 18, over 65), college education, home ownership rates, etc., so I encourage others to mine the data for more meaning. All I ask is that you reference Smashwords as the source of the data and link back to this post at HuffPost. Add links to your findings in the comments below so others can benefit from your findings.

Any idea why Alaska, North Dakota and Utah are more into ebooks than Washington, DC, California and Mississippi? Share your thoughts below.

The Author Uprising Against Big Publishing

2011-03-04T13:40:28-05:00

A revolution is brewing that will topple Big Publishing as we know it.

At the heart of every revolution is a loss of faith in the prevailing regime.

In Egypt's case, a number of catalysts precipitated the revolution; chief among them an oppressive political environment that offered little opportunity for democratic participation, freedom of speech and economic opportunity.

The catalysts for the Egyptian revolution are remarkably similar to what's driving the author uprising against Big Publishing. By "Big Publishing," I'm referring to the old system in which the publisher serves as the author's judge, jury, gatekeeper and executioner.

For authors, if Big Publishing approves of your book, they acquire it.

Post-acquisition, you can die happy knowing you're a published author with all the esteem, respect and future possibilities embodied in this blessing. At least, that's the myth you've been trained to believe.

Frederick Nietzsche wrote, "God is dead." I recall how my philosophy professor at U.C. Berkeley 25 years ago explained the quote beyond its immediate religious connotation. It was a metaphor for the power of faith. When we believe in something, our faith powers that in which we believe.

Faith is the single most important force-of-nature driving all human experience. If we lose faith in an institution, a regime or a belief system, the very survival of that institution is imperiled.

Authors are losing faith in the institution and religion of Big Publishing.

Has the Allure of Big Publishing become a Mirage?

It's tough to find a traditionally published author today who waxes eloquent about their post-publication experience. It's like the published author goes to heaven and reports back via John Edward (the guy who talks to dead people) that they discovered famine on the other side of the pearly gates.

More and more talented writers - including authors previously published by the Big 6 - are losing faith in the old system of publishing.

Advances are declining

Publishers reluctant to take chances on authors without established platforms

Most print books forced out of print before they've had a chance to reach readers

Authors expected to shoulder most post-publication marketing on their own dime

Lost and mismanaged rights

Brick and mortar retail distribution disappearing

Publishers value books through myopic prism of perceived commercial potential (publisher death panels)

Publishers acquire today what was hot yesterday so they can publish it 12-18 months from tomorrow

Publishers over-price and under-distribute author works

Publisher ebook royalties 17% list (25% net) vs 60-70% list (85-100% net) for self-publishing

Big Publishing, although it employs thousands of talented and well-intentioned professionals, is built upon a broken business model.

Ask Not What Your Publisher Can Do for You

Two questions and their answers are driving the author uprising against Big Publishing:

What can a publisher do for me that I (the author) cannot do for myself?

Might a big publisher actually harm my prospects as an author?

Ten years ago, the answers to these simple questions validated the need for Big Publishing. Why? In the old print world, Big Publishing controlled access to readers. They controlled the printing press and the access to retail distribution.

Yet these same questions asked today yield mixed results.

Self-published authors, a.k.a "indie authors," now have the power to produce, publish, price and promote books that are as good or better than those put out by Big Publishing. Indie ebook authors earn royalties of 60-70% of the list price. Traditionally published authors earn 5-17%.

Indie author sensation Amanda Hocking, in her recent interview with USA Today, was quoted as saying, "I can't really say that I would have been more successful if I'd gone with a traditional publisher."

No doubt, much of Hocking's success is because she's an indie author. She writes great books her readers love. She prices her series-starters at only $.99 and the rest at $2.99. Great books plus low prices plus enthusiastic fans plus an author directly engaged with her fans equals viral readership. Few big publishers are prepared to play by these new rules while paying authors 60-70% of list price.

Every week we hear of self-published authors - previously rejected by Big Publishing - finding success with self-published ebooks. Brian Pratt, profiled here at HuffPost in December, is one such author. Ruth Ann Nordin is another. Nordin's An Inconvenient Marriage is the #3 best-selling romance title today in the Apple iBookstore's romance category, and #57 among all paid titles at Apple. At Kobo, she's #9 today.

Two or three years from now when ebooks account for more than 50% of the book market, the same two dangerous questions above will yield a more unequivocal answer in favor of self-publishing.

The major ebook retailers - Apple, Barnes & Noble, Sony, Kobo and Amazon - have embraced indie ebook authors and grant their works equal shelf presence alongside Big Publishing authors. Readers, not publishers, have become the curators.

Do authors still need publishers in this new world order? I think it all goes back to my first question. To survive and thrive, publishers big and small must do for authors what authors cannot or will not do for themselves.

The next chapter of this revolution may very well be written by progressive literary agents. Literary agents, responsible for protecting the best interests of their author clients, are encouraging the very best authors to consider the potential of self-publishing. 60-70% royalty, or 5-17%? The math is not difficult when ebooks rule the roost.

Welcome to the revolution.

Mark Coker has created a Slideshare presentation to accompany this post. Click here to access The Uprising in Book Publishing.

Five Ebook Publishing Predictions for 2011

2010-12-28T13:24:44-05:00

It's annual prognostication time when folks like me stick out their neck and try to predict the future of book publishing.

I invite you to join in the fun. Brush up your crystal ball and share your publishing predictions for 2011 in the comments field below.

Earlier today, Jeff Rivera over at MediaBistro interviewed me for my ten book publishing predictions for 2011.

I'll list five predictions below, and then I encourage you to click over to Mediabistro for the full ten in his interview, Publishing Predictions for 2011 from Smashwords.

If 2010 was the year ebooks went mainstream in the U.S., 2011 will be the year indie ebook authors go mainstream. We've already seen this start to happen with some tremendous indie ebook author breakouts in 2010. A few weeks ago, I wrote here on Huffington Post about indie fantasy author Brian S. Pratt who will earn $25,000 this quarter selling low cost ebooks. Brian is but one of a growing cadre of indie authors whose ebooks are out-selling those of traditional publishers.

So here are five predictions for 2011:

1. Ebook sales rise, unit consumption surprises - Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US, yet the bigger surprise is that ebooks will account for one third or more of unit consumption. Why? Ebooks cost less and early ebook adopters read more.

2. Agents write the next chapter of the ebook revolution - Agents, serving the economic best interests of the best-selling authors, will bring new credibility to self publishing by encouraging authors to proactively bypass publishers and work directly with ebook distribution platforms. Agents will use these publishing platforms for negotiating leverage against large publishers. The conversation will go something like this: "You're offering my author only 15-20% list on ebooks when I can get them 60-70% list working direct with an ebook distributor like Smashwords or a retailer like Amazon?"

3. More big authors reluctant to part with digital rights - Indie ebook publishing offers compelling advantages to the author. The economics are better (see #2) and the publishing cycle times are faster (an ebook manuscript can be uploaded today and achieve worldwide distribution in minutes or days, not years). Ebooks also offer greater publishing flexibility (shorts, full length, bundles, free books), and the opportunity to reach more readers with lower cost (yet still higher-profit) books. The advantages will entice more professional authors to self-publish some or all of their future catalog, and all of their reverted-rights catalog.

4. Self publishing goes from option of last resort to option of first resort among unpublished authors - Most unpublished authors today still aspire to achieve the perceived credibility and blessing that comes with a professional book deal. Yet the cachet of traditional publishing is fading fast. Authors with finished manuscripts will grow impatient and resentful as they wait to be discovered by big publishers otherwise preoccupied with publishing celebrity drivel from Snooki, Justin Bieber and the Kardashians. Meanwhile, the break-out success of multiple indie author stars will grab headlines in 2011, forcing many unpublished authors off the sidelines. As unpublished authors bypass the slush pile, publishers lose first dibs on tomorrow's future stars.

5. Ebook prices to fall - It's all about supply and demand. Demand is surging, but supply will overwhelm demand. Average ebook prices will decline, despite attempts by Agency 5 publishers to hold the line. The drop will be fueled by the oversupply of books, abundance of low-cost or free non-book content, influx of ultra-price-sensitive readers who read free first, fierce competition for readership, and digitization of reverted-rights and out-of-print books. Indie authors, since they earn 60-70% retail price, can compete at price points big publishers can't touch.

Read all ten of my predictions in the full interview over at Mediabistro, and share your own predictions in the comments below.

Image credit: Wikipedia

Indie Ebook Author Brian Pratt Earns $25,000 in Three Months

2010-12-09T16:38:47-05:00

At first glance, Brian S. Pratt of Boswell, Oklahoma, doesn't fit the stereotypical profile of a best-selling author. Yet he, and other indie ebooks authors like him, represent the future of book publishing.

Pratt began publishing with Smashwords (the ebook publishing and distribution platform I run) in early 2009. His first quarterly royalty payment was $7.82. While most authors would find that number discouraging, Pratt was encouraged. It was a start.

In the quarters since, Pratt's earnings have grown, and in recent quarters he's become a breakout success by any measure. Last quarter, he earned over $18,000 from sales across the Smashwords retail distribution network. This quarter, with three weeks to go, he's on track to break $25,000. At his current rate, he could earn $200,000 in 2011 when he includes his sales at Amazon. Not one to count his eggs before they're hatched, though, he's fast at work on his next series.

The road to here was anything but easy. At age 43, he's held a number of eclectic jobs, ranging from a U.S. Air Force avionics technician to a taxi driver. Until recently, as he shares in the interview below, he was living below poverty level.

He writes fast-paced, can't-put-it-down fantasy. Pratt started writing because the series authors he enjoyed reading weren't completing their series fast enough. So he started writing books he'd like to read himself. Unlike some ebook series writers who take shortcuts and carve up a single full-length books into short serialized chunks, Pratt's books are full-length, with most clocking in around 150,000 words. Most of his books are priced at $5.99, for which he nets about $3.50 per copy.

His writing style is completely his own, and most New York editors would bristle at the rules Brian breaks. His most popular series, The Morcyth Saga, is written in the present tense (though he changed to past tense for subsequent series). It's no wonder that after years trying to land an agent and a publisher, he faced unanimous rejection from publishing experts.

Yet readers had other plans for Pratt, as we learn in this interview.

Lacking a traditional outlet for his work, Pratt self published in 2005, first in print and later ebooks. Today, his ebook sales far outpace his print sales by a factor of more than 100:1.

Today, Pratt has 17 books at Smashwords, and we distribute the books to Barnes & Noble, Apple, Kobo and the Sony Reader Store, as well as to online mobile app catalogs of Stanza and Aldiko.

His Morcyth Saga, a seven-book fantasy adventure series, is by far his most popular collection.

Below in this exclusive interview, Brian S. Pratt recounts the long road to his overnight breakout success.

[Mark Coker] Brian, tell us about your books

[Brian S. Pratt] I have 17 books completed spread across several series. Most are full length, epic fantasy type novels, each anywhere from 120,000-190,000 words. I have a few I call my mini's that are just plain fun and get the reader into the adventure from the get-go. These range from 60,000-90,000 words.

[MC] How did you get started as a writer?

[BSP] Back in 2005, I found myself waiting for several of the main authors to get around to finishing their next novel. The biggest one that annoyed me was The Wheel of Time by Robert Jordan. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely loved the series up to around book 6; then it lost me. Action grew infrequent and far between. It got bogged down in mundane details. Jordan wasn't the only one I was impatiently waiting for. So, on March 1, 2005, I sat down at my computer and decided to write The Morcyth Saga. Figured I could do a good job and write the kind of book I wanted to read. One that had action in every chapter, you followed the main character throughout, and descriptions were down to a minimum. That is exactly what you get in The Unsuspecting Mage; Book One of The Morcyth Saga.

[MC] What training do you have as a writer?

[BSP] Training??? Not a bit. All I started with was the drive to write a story and everything else followed. I ended up writing a seven book series in present tense, rife with errors in grammar, spelling, and punctuation. Most of the errors have been fixed in subsequent editions. My word usage was not what one would find in the traditionally produced books, some said it was too simple. I don't know about that, but at least you don't need a dictionary at hand when you read my books. Some have liked it, others less so. My books feel different than others for that reason.

[MC] Tell us about some of the first customer reviews you received, and how you reacted?

[BSP] Reviews, yes there have been some dillies. Here's the first one-star I ever received. It was at Amazon.com less than a month after I first published The Unsuspecting Mage.

1.0 out of 5 stars - January 15, 2006
Present tense is an amateurish way to write ... and this book reads like it was written for a high school English class. Worst book I've read in a long time. I like lots of books, especially ones written by Robin Hobb, George Martin, and Stephen Donaldson to name but three. These books were well written. This one was not. Just wondering - how many of you are still in high school yourselves?

The last line was directed at the other reviewers who said they liked my book.

Needless to say, this devastated me and I stopped writing for a few weeks. Of course, I've had much worse ones since. But then my books kept selling. And I always told myself that as long as my books keep selling, even if it is marginally, then it would be worth it to continue. I've come to realize that there will always be those that do not like my books, and so what? They simply are not in my target audience. And my target audience is me. I write what I would like to read. And it looks like there are many "me's" out there for I've sold lots of books. If you want to see what may be in your future, check out The Unsuspecting Mage at Amazon.

[MC] You joined Smashwords March 27, 2009. Can you take us back to that moment in time, and recall what was going through your mind?

[BSP] Let's see. I was a single dad living with three kids and boy, was I poor (under the poverty level). Up until then, I hadn't really thought much about eBooks. I tried Mobipocket for a while and had great sales for three months, then it died off. Sales for my paperbacks, which I had published through iUniverse had fallen off dramatically. Where I had been breaking 4 figures a quarter, I was now less than 600 per quarter and bleeding red. I typed in "self publishing" and saw a quirky little site called Smashwords. It said, Your eBook, Your way. Didn't cost a thing so what did I have to lose? First quarter sales at Smashwords were dismal, 2009-04-07 -- $7.92 As it happened, April 7th is my birthday. That was cool. But I wasn't deterred. Books were selling. Sometimes, one or two a week, but they sold. I stayed with it and refused to allow all the naysayers (and there were those by the droves) to stifle my dream. Sales gradually improved and, well, here we are. Can't give up on your dream, EVER!

[MC] Your first quarter at Smashwords you earned $7.92. I've seen some new Smashwords authors jump for glee over a number like that, and others have unpublished their books and quit Smashwords in disgust. What was your reaction?

[BSP] My reaction was, "I'm ahead, $7.92." By this time I had been published for a little over 3 years and had seen sales go up and down. Can't make any kind of decision based on just one quarter. Plus, I was getting the hang of how to make Smashwords work for me. You can't just publish your book, sit back and think, "Okay, the money is going to roll in now." It ain't gonna happen. The industry is stacked against anyone who is just starting out. You have to get out there and grab readers by the collar and shout, "Here I am!" They won't find you or care about you until you do.

[MC] Your sales started small but then grew steadily, and in more recent months you've broken out into the best-seller lists at some of our retailers. What was the secret?

[BSP] After receiving my second royalty check which was only $183.60, I figured I needed to get busy and get creative. So I first looked around for a good place to advertise and found Project Wonderful. They suited my needs perfectly; ads would run on websites for pennies a day. I then created a coupon code that would discount my first book for free. I then created a series of ads stating that a free copy was available, all they had to do was copy down the code and go to Smashwords for their free copy. Well, that bombed and bombed badly. Came to realize that I was asking way too much of customer. In order to get my book, they had to go to Smashwords, create an account, put in the code, then download.

People are inherently lazy about shopping, especially in this world where everything is a click away. I pondered on the lack of success with my coupon code, then realized that if I just made the book free, they would only have to click the link in the ad, then download a free copy. Simple. (Keep it simple-stupid) I made it so easy for people to download my book, that downloads jumped. Subsequently, sales for books 2-7 jumped as well.

If it's free and downloading is just a click away, people will do it. Very few can walk away from a free deal. Unknown authors are risky to readers and few wish to risk money, or time, to try a book they are not sure they will even like.

When Smashwords signed the deal with Barnes and Noble, my sales jumped 300% that quarter. Barnes and Noble have one of the best "Free eBook" sections and now people could find my book without having to see a small ad. Without Smashwords' free copy of book one at Barnes and Noble, I would hardly be doing the sales I am today. That was the one act that set into motion sales the likes I never thought possible for an Indie without agent, editor, or publisher.

[MC] Prior to publishing at Smashwords, multiple agents and publishers rejected you. Tell us about your most memorable rejections.

[BSP] No one wanted me. All the rejection letters were worded very politely, but you can't help but adding phrases to them like "You suck as a writer" or "Your book would be good to keep my table level but as for making money, it has a better chance to spontaneously combust." When I published it through iUniverse, I opted for an editorial review ($300 at the time). They basically said the manuscript would need a serious overhaul before it would become commercially viable. And oh, by the way, we do have many such services available... for a price. At the time I thought it was a complete waste of time. But now looking back with five years experience under my belt, many of their comments had merit. Although one must keep in mind, had I continued working with my first book to get it right, I'd still be working on it to this day and all subsequent ones never having seen publication. There comes a point when a writer has to say, "It's ready. Good or bad, let's see what happens." What happened in this case was that there were many people out there who enjoy a good adventure and have since traveled with James through 8 books and are patiently (impatiently might be a better word) waiting for the second installment of the follow-up series, Travail of The Dark Mage.

[MC] What does it mean to you to be described as a self-published author, or an Indie author?

[BSP] The biggest worry a writer had back in 2005 was whether or not they wanted to be stigmatized as "self-published." Once stigmatized, I was told, never again would a traditional publisher take you on. Unless you sold over 50,000 copies. But then, I thought, if I sold 50,000 copies, what would I need a publisher for?

Now, I think of it as a badge of pride. My success is mine, no one else's. Everything that comes from my books, comes because of the hard work I, and I alone, put into it. Others have helped, but I spearheaded it and got it done. Even if today I was to get a publisher, from what I've heard of other author's experiences, they still do most of their own publicity and get tied into restrictive contracts and unrealistic demands. Case in point, the movie Back to the Future. The head of the studio sent the producers a memo in which he stated that "Frogman from Mars" would be a better title. What a nightmare to have to deal with that. As a self-published author I don't have to worry about another's "taste" or "ideas."

Of course, if you fail, again you have no one else to blame. But the only failure you will have, is if you quit. Try new ideas, talk to those who have succeeded, most of all don't give up.

[MC] What's your view of the future of indie authorship, and where do you think traditional publishers fit into your plans, if at all?

[BSP] Indie authorship is here to stay and the traditional publishing houses better get used to it. They also better not discount the effectiveness of its appeal or they're going to regret it. I think they are going to wake up one morning and wonder where all their profits have gone. The better authors will do it themselves because they are going to make more money at it. Also, as the indie revolution continues, more and more authors being sought by publishers will be taking hard looks at their contracts. True, if you only have a single book, traditional publishers may be the best route. I make money because I have a series, a completed series, and give the first one away free. Can't beat free for advertising.

As of today, I no longer send query letters (what a waste of time that was) to agents. No longer submit to publishers or even enter contests. My books are not award winners. They are merely fun books. I've tracked winners in the past and they don't always do well.

What would happen if I got an email from a publisher asking for publishing rights? I'd listen to what they have to say. I'd carefully scrutinize any contract for how future books would be affected and so forth. I feel the restriction and demands made by them would far outweigh any increased royalties. But I could be wrong. Never say never to anything where money is concerned.

[MC] Where does print fit into your publishing strategy going forward?

[BSP] Print goes hand in hand with eBooks. You have to have a print copy of your book. I sell maybe 2 or 3 books per 1000 eBooks. Not much, right? Keep this in mind. eBook readers tell their book reader friends about your books. If you want them to buy it, it needs to be available. My biggest hurdle with print has always been pricing. Not much you can do about that, self-publishing print books is expensive no matter where you do it. I'd suggest Lightning Source Inc. -- they're the best and will put your books before the most customers.

[MC] Imagine you're mentoring a new author today. What three secrets to success would you share, and why?

[BSP] Actually, I've already helped over a dozen authors with getting started. I take the time to answer questions and give advice freely.

First thing I advise is to be approachable. Have an email address solely for those contacting you as an author and post it everywhere. If someone sees your book, that email address had better be there, too. And remove the spam filter. About a year after I published my first book, I happened to check my spam folder and found 3 emails from readers. Made me mad. Also made me wonder how many others couldn't get hold of me due to my (censored) spam filter. There was this one author, forgot who, but I saw his profile on Amazon. It basically said that he didn't want to be bothered with questions from readers, nor did he want to hear from other authors. And oh, by the way, won't you buy my book? Not word for word, but that was the gist of it. Needless to say, I didn't even look as his book and have since forgotten the guy. I've earned many steadfast fans simply because I responded to them in a personal and friendly manner.

Get a website. They're pretty cheap and are absolutely invaluable. Your readers need a place they can go to learn more about the books, and about you.

Listen to your heart, not reviewers. If you can't stand criticism, find something else to do. Also, when you get your book first published, friends and family always like to post reviews. Well, there are certain things you need to explain to these reviewers before they post.

A. One line reviews are worthless. Saying, "This is greatest book I've ever read!!!" is a waste of time. It means nothing to no one.

B. Tell potential customers about the book. Why is it great? Why did you love it? Why should they spend time and money to read it? Give an example from the book. If you use an example, it gives your review more weight for it lends credence that you actually read the book.

C. Don't talk about just the good. Pick something negative and write about that too. A balanced review is more helpful, and more believable than one that just gushes praise. No matter the book, there has to be something that bugged them. If the book is self-published, there will be something to criticize. I received an email from one reader that said he read a review in which a previous customer complained that my book read like a D&D game transcript. The reader, a gamer by the way, checked it out on that basis alone and ended up buying the entire series. So never assume that a negative review will be negative to all readers.

Here's the biggie. Write. Seems simple doesn't it? You'd be surprised how often we come up with excuses why we can't write. If you're a writer, then you better be writing. Finished a book? When's the next one going to be published? Don't stand still and see if the first one sells well before starting the second. Do you believe in what you are doing? Then for heaven's sake, write. Set a goal. In the beginning, my goal was 20,000 words a week, or an equivalent time editing. I met that and in fact wrote Shepherd's Quest, a 130,000 word book in 5 weeks. I was on roll.

Don't go to your family with your manuscript and ask, "How is it?" If you want an honest answer, go to Fanstory.com and join. You'll find out fast just how good/bad your manuscript is. Friends and family are biased and will have a hard time seeing your work for what it truly is. If you ask for an opinion from someone who knows you, the person answering you knows that they'll have to deal with you afterward so will say "it's great" or give some other affirmative response. They don't want to crush your spirit. I watched this one show once where a guy wore this t-shirt that said, "My mom thinks I'm cool." Enough said.

I have posted lots of useful info for self-published authors, or those thinking of going that route on my website. If you're interested, check out my site, Brian Pratt Books. It's a year old, but most of the info should still be fairly current. It will definitely give you some things to think about.

We're all in this together. Email me should you have questions or anything.

[MC] Every author must compete against hundreds of thousands of other books. What's the secret to breaking out?

[BSP] Write, keep writing, and when your fingers are sore, write some more. The more books you have out, available through the most channels, the better your exposure. Never cancel a channel unless you know another will fill the void. Best channels right now are Smashwords and Kindle. Neither costs you anything but time. From the first sale, you're making a profit. If you give up, it's over. Until then, anything can happen. I'm a prime example of that.

Find ways to get your book in front of people. Don't expect glowing reviews to sell your book. After all, if readers don't find your book in the first place, no amount of "good" reviews will help.

[MC] Now that you've achieved success as a writer, how might your writing change, if at all?

[BSP] I now understand why some authors take a long time in getting out the next book. The more books you have, the more time ends up being devoted to previous titles and other things (this Q&A is a prime example). Editing has always been a sore point with [my] readers, or rather, the lack of it. My books have never seen a professional editor and could use a touch of polishing. I'll be looking into that with the new year.

[MC] Now that you're able to devote full time to your writing, what's your typical day like. What's your process?

[BSP] I spend far too much time on the internet checking sales, answering emails (I love that part) and seeing what's going on in the world of publishing. Smashwords is usually the first page I visit in the hopes that sales have posted. Most days, I'm disappointed. There have been times when I thought, "What the heck is going on? Where are my sales?" But you know, they all come in before the quarter payout, and I've never had a problem with getting my money from Smashwords. [Note from MC: We hear you Brian! Faster reporting is one of our top priorities for 2011]

After that, I try to get some editing done on my newer works, then an hour or so of computer gaming. I write some, check emails again, and so forth. The longer a series goes, the more complex it becomes. You need to take into account all that has gone before, keep your characters consistent, and make it all seem flawless.

[MC] What's coming next?

[BSP] Finish Travail of The Dark Mage. I'm on book 2 and figure the series will be around 5 books. Never know for sure until I'm done. The initial plan for The Morcyth Saga was 10 books. Can you imagine what would have happened if I had contracted for 10 books with a publisher and instead came through with 7? Love being an Indie.

I do have ideas for another 2 series after Travail, as well as off-shoots like The Improbable Adventures of Scar and Potbelly, a series of short adventure books based on the duo from the series. One thing I do know for sure. I will not release another series unless I have it already completed. I hate making readers wait.

[MC] Thanks for sharing, Brian!

To sample or purchase the ebooks of Brian S. Pratt, visit his Smashwords author page or any major ebook retailer.

The Seven Secrets to eBook Publishing Success

2010-10-06T15:01:19-04:00

In July, the Association of American Publishers reported that for the first five months of 2010, eBooks accounted for 8.5 percent of a trade book sales, up from about 3 percent for all of 2009.

Whether you're a self-published indie author or a large traditional publisher, the opportunity to reach readers with books has never been greater.

How do you reach these readers? Obviously, the first step is to release all your books as eBooks. But then what?

This past weekend at the Self Publishing Book Expo in New York, I presented my Seven Secrets to eBook Publishing Success. I embedded the presentation below for your Powerpointing pleasure.

The presentation builds on a previous presentation (and blog post here) I gave at NYU on how the rise of indie eBooks will transform the future the future of publishing.

For the SPBE session, I added new material, including the all-new seven secrets plus one bonus secret that covers how authors can maximize the virality of their books.

The Seven Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success

View more presentations from Smashwords, Inc..

The Seven Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success:

Write a great book -- Your reader's time is more valuable than their wallet, so respect the reader's time by publishing the highest quality book possible. Although free self-publishing tools make publishing fast, free and easy, some authors jump the gun by releasing books before they're ready for prime time. Readers have unlimited choice for alternative high-quality sources for entertainment, escapism and knowledge, so competition for their eyeshare is steep. If you're an indie author, it means you're also the publisher so it's your responsibility to do what many traditional publishers have always done so well, and that's to honor the editing and revision process if you want to make your good book great.

Write another great book -- The best selling eBook authors at Smashwords (the ebook publishing and distribution platform I founded) offer deep backlists. Think of each eBook as a fish hook in the ocean. When each eBook cross references the other books with simple hyperlinks (both inside the book and within the retailer's merchandising systems), you create a net. A deep backlist also offers you the opportunity to earn the trust of the reader. Once the reader trusts you'll respect their time with a great read, they'll be more inclined to sample and purchase your other titles.

Maximize distribution -- Availability is the precursor to discoverability. If your book isn't serendipitously discoverable in multiple places via topical or themed search engine queries, or via keyword or categories searches at retailers, it might as well be invisible. Get your books distributed in as many online bookstores as possible. Many readers go to a bookstore with the goal to find a great read, and they're not necessarily looking for a specific title, so if your book isn't there it's not discoverable or purchasable. Some of the same rules of print publishing apply to eBook publishing. The more bookstores that carry your book, the more chances you have to connect with a reader.

Give (some of) your books away for FREE -- Our highest grossing authors offer eBook marketing secrets. Free works best if you have a deep backlist. If you only wrote one full-length book, consider issuing some of your unpublished short form writing as free eBooks.

Trust your readers -- Some authors don't publish eBooks due to fear of piracy. Piracy cannot be prevented, and often when an author or publisher takes steps to prevent piracy, they only encourage it. J.K. Rowling doesn't publish eBooks, yet within hours of each release of her Harry Potter series, her books were available online as pirated eBooks. Don't make it difficult for your fans to purchase legitimate copies of your book. Trust your readers to honor your copyright. Yes, some readers will breach this trust, but this cannot be prevented. If you limit the accessibility of your book by infecting your book with DRM (for more on DRM, see "Protect eBooks, or Trust Customers to Do The Right Thing"), then you'll limit your ability to connect with readers. The only 100 percent reliable method of preventing piracy is to never publish. Last week during a trip to Brazil, I spoke at an eBook publishing presentation sponsored by Singular Digital alongside Rodrigo Paranhos Velloso, the director of business development for Google Latin America. He made a brilliant observation about DRM. He said, "when you DRM something, you make the non-DRM'd versions more valuable." In other words, when you apply DRM, you encourage piracy. DRM-free eBooks give your reader greater freedom to enjoy your book across multiple devices and platforms.

Have patience -- It takes time to build your publishing business. Unlike traditionally published print books that hit store shelves and usually go out of print soon after, eBooks are immortal. When your book lands at a new retailer, think of it as a seedling. With time and proper nourishment, it has the chance to build deep roots (customer reviews, sales rank, SEO). Never remove your book from a retailer's shelves because you're dissatisfied with its sales compared to other retailers (see distribution above).

Marketing starts yesterday -- Start building your marketing platform before you finish your book, and then invest time every day to build that platform. Implement a solid social media strategy. Participate in social networks, and more importantly, contribute to your social networks. If you view your Facebook and Twitter followers as people to be sold to, you'll hurt yourself. Instead, contribute to your networks. Help your fellow authors be successful. When it comes time for you to launch your book, your social network friends will return the favor by opening unexpected doors of opportunity.

Bonus. Architect for virality -- The seven secrets above will help you maximize the virality, or word-of-mouth, of your book. In the presentation, I described my concept of "first reader," the person you convince to purchase your book. In a sense, every reader is a first reader, because they have the power to drive more sales through their word-of-mouth, or they can kill sales with bad reviews. If your book resonates with them, they'll become your book's best sales person. Since readers will determine the ultimate success of your book, you, as the author/publisher, can take steps to facilitate the virality by making it easy for readers to access, enjoy and talk about your books. Eliminate friction that impedes discoverability, accessibility, purchasing and sample sharing. For example, if a reader has to enter a password to read your book, that's friction. If they can't click a button to share a free sample of the book with a friend, that's friction too. If the book is priced too high, or is only offered in a limited number of eBook formats, that's more friction.

Mark Coker last wrote about serialized eBooks. He's also the author of The Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to market a book) and The Smashwords Style Guide (how to format and publish an eBook).