Mehdi Hasan2013-05-23T04:43:15-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/author/index.php?author=mehdi-hasanCopyright 2008, HuffingtonPost.com, Inc.HuffingtonPost Blogger Feed for Mehdi HasanGood old fashioned elbow grease.Tory 'Latterday Bastards' Making David Cameron's Position Worse Than John Major'stag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-21T09:26:28-04:002013-05-22T07:38:29-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/
Sir Christopher Meyer, who served as Downing Street spokesman between 1994 and 1996, told the Huffington Post UK that the driving force behind the current rebelliousness is that the "latterday bastards" in the Tory Party believe "there is no way Cameron can win in 2015".
He said the situation is "worse for Cameron than it was for Major because he should be in a better position vis-a-vis his own party. Cameron polls ahead of his party and there is no other obvious contender for the leadership."
However, Meyer added: "You do have a situation again where a large chunk of the Conservative Party is having a nervous breakdown over Europe and getting out of Downing Street's control."
Cameron told Radio 4's Today programme on Tuesday morning that he had the "boldest, clearest" policy of any party leader "for 30 or 40 years". Nonetheless, the latest YouGov poll puts the Tories on a 13-year low, 11 points behind Labour.
Major, who served as prime minister between 1990 and 1997, spent much of his period in office trying to keep his disgruntled parliamentary party united over Europe. In 1994, he had to withdraw the whip from several Tory MPs over their Euro-rebellions; in 1995, the then PM quit as Tory leader in order to face down the "bastards" in his own cabinet - he was re-elected after defeating arch-eurosceptic and former Welsh secretary John Redwood.
Meyer told HuffPost UK that working in Downing Street during the political and economic crises of the Major years was like "sliding down a glacier and, every now and then, you get a hand hold and you think you may able able to stabilise... then it gives away and you fall again.
"When Major put his leadership on the line and won [in 1995], he thought he had got stability."
"Major's problem was that when he got himself into a relatively comfortable position, he eased off, he relaxed," Meyer told HuffPost UK. Similarly, once Cameron gave his referendum pledge "everyone in Downing Street thought that's it, done and dusted. But it should have been a starting point for a new, high energy campaign."
Meyer, who also famously served as the UK's ambassador in Washington DC in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq invasion, said he did not believe the Tories were "intrinsically unleadable on Europe": "I am not even sure that Europe is not the most important subject here. Europe is a symptom of poor leadership."
He added: "The big similarity between then and now is that there seems to be a large number of Tory backbenchers who would prefer to lose at the next general election than give any ground to David Cameron - in fact, a larger number than there were under John Major."
The former press secretary and diplomat, however, does think the situation is "retrievable" for Cameron: "By the time we got to 1995, 1996, no one thought Major had any chance of winning the [1997] election and he was completely written off. Whereas with Cameron, you kind of feel that if the economy continues to turn for the better... he is actually in with a chance in 2015.
"One of the things that fuelled the permanent rebellion against John Major was a perception that he couldn't win the next election - even though he'd won handsomely last time round. What is more worrying for Cameron is that he does stand a chance of winning in 2015 but still they're after him."
What's Meyer's advice to Cameron, based on his experience at Major's side in the 1990s?
"Do not go on making concessions to your right because they will never be satisfied. What happened to Major is happening to you. You give them an inch of rope - they ask for six more. The worst thing to do is to compound your own weakness."
Meyer believes Cameron should issue his own Major-style, 'don't bind my hands' ultimatum: "He should say to the latterday bastards: 'This is how we're going to win in 2015. If you don't like it, too bloody bad.'"
Meyer's comments come after Major's other press secretary also warned that the current rows and revolts over Europe have "depressing" echoes of the 1990s.
Sheila Gunn told HuffPost UK on 13 May that Tory rebels had to "show some common sense" or else risk handing the next election to the Labour Party.]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: Dave's Love Letter To The Loonstag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-21T02:01:12-04:002013-05-21T03:12:34-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/Then ten things you need to know on Tuesday 21 May 2013...
1) DAVE'S LOVE LETTER TO THE LOONS
Under fire from his activists and backbenchers, under pressure from Ukip, the prime minister is - finally! - in full damage limitation mode. The Daily Mail reports:
"David Cameron issued a love letter to Tory activists last night as UKIP closed to within two points in the opinion polls.
"The peace offering followed revelations that a senior ally of the Prime Minister had branded the party faithful 'swivel-eyed loons'. MPs warn that his leadership is in peril amid discontent on Europe and gay marriage.
"... In his email to party members, Mr Cameron said: 'We have been together through good times and bad. This is more than a working relationship; it is a deep and lasting friendship.' Referring to reports that Tory co-chairman Lord Feldman - a tennis partner of Mr Cameron - had insulted them, he added: ' I am proud to lead this party. I am proud of what you do. And I would never have around me those who sneered or thought otherwise."
The paper also reports that "the Conservative Party board discussed the Lord Feldman issue for 35 minutes yesterday and rejected calls from Tory MP and board member Brian Binley to hold a full investigation.
"Lord Feldman repeated his denial that he said the words attributed to him. That section of the meeting was chaired by co-chairman Grant Shapps with Lord Feldman still in the room.
"Both faced criticism over the 'disconnect' between the leadership and the grassroots, over the way the affair was handled and over No 10's decision to attack the media for its reporting. Mr Shapps admitted Tory high command must do more to connect with party members, stressing party chiefs would 'redouble its efforts'."
They better hurry. The Guardian quotes a 'senior figure' in the party as saying: "This is worse than John Major. There was quite a lot of sympathy for him because of the Maastricht rebels. He also listened, though he probably listened too much. With Cameron it feels like this could be terminal – and will be so before the election."
"Ukip has surged to just two points behind the Conservatives, according to a poll released last night.
"The data by Survation, a member of the British Polling Council, puts Ukip on 22 per cent, its highest poll rating ever. Labour is on 35 per cent, 11 points ahead of the Tories, while the Lib Dems are in fourth place on 11 per cent."
Meanwhile, in the Independent, the Lib Dem energy secretary Ed Davey warns that "there is a danger, with Ukip peddling an anti-climate-change message, that the right of the Conservative Party might also be dragged that way".
3) ED RESCUES GAY MARRIAGE BILL
As a prime minister, you know you're in trouble when you need the leader of the opposition to save you from your own backbenchers.
"Gay marriage revolt drives Cameron into Labour's arms," is the splash headline on the front of the Times.
The paper reports that Dave "stoked Tory anger last night after he struck an eleventh-hour deal with Labour to save his divisive gay marriage plans.
"Even with Labour support, the Government suffered a series of bruising defeats as two Cabinet members and nine junior ministers led dozens of Tories to vote against the leadership.
"Their efforts to secure opt-outs for teachers and marriage registrars opposed to gay marriage were defeated with the aid of Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs. But the sheer scale of Conservative opposition to the Prime Minister, on a free vote, was a sign of how mutinous the party has become.
"More than 100 Tory MPs, led by Iain Duncan Smith, the Work and Pensions Secretary, and Owen Paterson, the Environment Secretary, repeatedly lined up against Mr Cameron.
"As the scale of the rebellion became clear, the Prime Minister was forced to plead with Ed Miliband to rescue him on a vote to extend civil partnerships to heterosexual couples. Without the support of Labour, the whole Bill would have been at risk, and Mr Miliband stepped in."
It's not over yet. Today, as the Times notes, "the Commons will debate further amendments before voting on whether to approve the Bill's third reading, sending it over to the House of Lords. It is expected to pass the Commons vote thanks to the support of Labour and Liberal Democrats".
4) 'AGGRESSIVE HOMOSEXUALS'
Several Tory MPs were keen to take the mantle of 'swivel-eyed loon' in last night's debate on same-sex marriage. My colleague Ned Simons reports:
"Former Tory defence minister Sir Gerald Howarth suggested gay rights had gone too far. He criticised the 'aggressive homosexual community' who he said saw gay marriage as 'a stepping stone to something even further'.
"And Conservative Edward Leigh said the gay marriage bill was an example of the 'outlandish views of the loony left' having taken over the government."
Howarth, interestingly, didn't reveal what that further step would be.
Sketchwriter Simon Hoggart, writing in the Guardian, says the Tory Party appears to be "disintegrating into endless factions... Loonies versus sort-of sane. Swivel-eyed against glass eyed. Herding cats? By comparison, a sackful of kittens would be as easy to marshal as the Brigade of Guards. If they were football fans, hordes of police would be needed to keep Tory MPs at opposite ends of the stadium."
"Scotland has been held back by past and present UK governments, Holyrood's SNP administration has claimed.
"In a paper, to be published later, it cites six areas where Westminster has pursued policies said not to have been in the best interests of Scotland.
"The arguments are being outlined the day after Treasury analysis suggested independence would cost savers and borrowers north of the border."
The SNP's deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon "highlighted six areas including;
* The decision of the last two Westminster governments to cut capital spending which would have supported an additional 19,000 jobs in Scotland
* The UK government's failure to establish an oil fund for future generations, similar to the Norwegian fund now worth an estimated £450bn
* The decision by the UK government to engage in a boom in credit and debt expansion
* Allowing income inequality to grow dramatically in the UK
* The decision to concentrate economic activity in London
* And the decision to pursue austerity rather than focus on growing the economy."
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this video of a rabbit doing a forward roll. You know you want to.
"Police investigating the rape allegations against Commons Deputy Speaker Nigel Evans have raided his Parliamentary office, the Daily Express can reveal today.
"It was searched on Sunday by Lancashire police.
"Speaker John Bercow told MPs that a search warrant had been issued by Preston Crown Court, although neither he nor police named Conservative Mr Evans as the occupant of the room.
"The swoop, just the second of its kind in recent years, 'related to the investigation of a serious arrestable offence', said Mr Bercow."
7) THE WORK PROGRAMME THAT DOESN'T WORK
From the Times:
"Private companies running the Government's flagship Work Programme are still failing to reach the most disadvantaged unemployed people, MPs will claim today... In a critical report, the Work and Pensions Committee says that the programme — to get people off benefit and into work — potentially can help mainstream jobseekers, but the most vulnerable groups are being 'parked' and getting no support.
"The companies contracted to run the payment by results schemes are choosing instead those most likely to get a job anyway. Of the 9,500 former incapacity benefit claimants, only 20 people had been placed in a job that lasted three months."
The BBC notes that "last year the government faced calls to scrap the scheme after just 3.5% found a job for six months or more - missing the coalition's 5.5% target.
"Dame Anne Begg, chairman of the committee behind the report, said the programme's performance in its first 14 months was poor but there were signs of improvement for mainstream jobseekers."
"England's 34,000 family doctors will face Ofsted-style inspections overseen by a new chief inspector of general practice to secure 'safe and responsive care', the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, is to announce.
"... In a set of plans designed to underline the health secretary's pro-pensioner credentials, the health secretary will also say on Tuesday that every vulnerable elderly person will have a 'named' NHS worker responsible for organising their heath and care needs... The health secretary's intervention comes as a leading thinktank calls for a fresh debate over whether wealthy pensioners should receive universal benefits at a time when public funding for essential social care is drying up. The King's Fund warns that the government's attempts to cap social care costs for the elderly 'won't solve the social care funding challenge'."
9) WHAT DID THE PRESIDENT KNOW AND WHEN DID HE KNOW IT?
Across the pond, the IRS scandal gets bigger and bigger - from the BBC:
"Senior White House aides were informed last month of an inquiry into the US tax agency's targeting of conservative political groups, an official has said.
"President Barack Obama himself was not informed, spokesman Jay Carney said.
"Officials at the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) have apologised for mistakes ahead of the 2012 election but say there was no political motivation.
"Republicans have sought to use the matter to discredit the president just months into his second term in office... The FBI has launched a criminal inquiry. Congress has already held one hearing into the matter and more are planned."
"Wtih the Commons rising today for the 13-day Whitsun Recess, David Cameron is spared a potentially embarrassing session of Prime Minister’s Questions tomorrow. Either by luck or design he hasn’t taken one PMQs since April 24. Six weeks will have passed by the time he next takes one on June 5. My source says: ‘Interestingly, the Lords’ Whitsun Recess does not begin until May 22. So whoever arranges the Commons timetable must be a Cameron supporter.’"
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From the Survation poll:
Labour 35
Conservatives 24
Ukip 22
Lib Dems 11
That would give Labour a majority of 100.
From the Sun/YouGov poll:
Labour 39
Conservatives 31
Ukip 14
Lib Dems 10
That would give Labour a majority of 92.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@Ed_Miliband David Cameron’s inability to control his party must not be allowed to wreck the Equal Marriage Bill. Labour’s commitment unwavering.
@DrEvanHarris Gerald Howarth MP's "aggressive homosexuals" makes it into 10pm news & the history books. He'll regret that. Aggressively.
@LoonyPartyNews As 'swivel-eyed loons' We take umbrage at being likened to the Conservatives!
900 WORDS OR MORE
Iain Martin, writing in the Telegraph, says: "It feels like the Right has split irrevocably."
Donald Macintyre, writing in the Independent, says: "The 'loons' debacle helped to make last night’s vote on the Gay Marriage bill even more radioactive than it would otherwise have been."
Aditya Chakrabortty, writing in the Guardian, says: "The Great Gatsby's world is every bit as unequal as Britain under the coalition."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>As a Muslim, I Struggle With the Idea Of Homosexuality - But I Oppose Homophobiatag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.33061682013-05-20T09:31:53-04:002013-05-20T12:38:50-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/
The Harvard historian Professor Niall Ferguson apologised "unreservedly" on 4 May for "stupid" and "insensitive" comments in which he claimed that the economist John Maynard Keynes hadn't cared about "the long run" because he was gay and had no intention of having any children.
Dare I add my non-academic, non-intellectual voice to the mix? I want to issue my own apology. Because I've made some pretty inappropriate comments in the past, too.
You may or may not be surprised to learn that, as a teenager, I was one of those wannabe-macho kids who crudely deployed "gay" as a mark of abuse; you will probably be shocked to discover that shamefully, even in my twenties, I was still making the odd disparaging remark about homosexuality.
It's now 2013 and I'm 33 years old. My own "youthful enthusiasm" is thankfully, if belatedly, behind me.
What happened? Well, for a start, I grew up. Bigotry and demonisation of difference are usually the hallmark of immature and childish minds. But, if I'm honest, something else happened, too: I acquired a more nuanced understanding of my Islamic faith, a better appreciation of its morals, values and capacity for tolerance.
Before we go any further, a bit of background - I was attacked heavily a few weeks ago by some of my co-religionists for suggesting in these pages that too many Muslims in this country have a "Jewish problem" and that we blithely "ignore the rampant anti-Semitism in our own backyard".
I hope I won't provoke the same shrieks of outrage and denial when I say that many Muslims also have a problem, if not with homosexuals, then with homosexuality. In fact, a 2009 poll by Gallup found that British Muslims have zero tolerance towards homosexuality. "None of the 500 British Muslims interviewed believed that homosexual acts were morally acceptable," the Guardian reported in May that year.
Some more background. Orthodox Islam, like orthodox interpretations of the other Abrahamic faiths, views homosexuality as sinful and usually defines marriage as only ever a heterosexual union.
This isn't to say that there is no debate on the subject. In April, the Washington Post profiled Daayiee Abdullah, who is believed to be the only publicly gay imam in the west. "[I]f you have any same-sex marriages," the Post quotes him as saying, "I'm available." Meanwhile, the gay Muslim scholar Scott Siraj al-Haqq Kugle, who teaches Islamic studies at Emory University in the United States, says that notions such as "gay" or "lesbian" are not mentioned in the Quran. He blames Islam's hostility towards homosexuality on a misreading of the texts by ultra-conservative mullahs.
And, in his 2011 book Reading the Quran, the British Muslim intellectual and writer Ziauddin Sardar argues that "there is absolutely no evidence that the Prophet punished anyone for homosexuality". Sardar says "the demonisation of homosexuality in Muslim history is based largely on fabricated traditions and the unreconstituted prejudice harboured by most Muslim societies". He highlights verse 31 of chapter 24 of the Quran, in which "we come across 'men who have no sexual desire' who can witness the 'charms' of women". I must add here that Abdullah, Kugle and Sardar are in a tiny minority, as are the members of gay Muslim groups such as Imaan. Most mainstream Muslim scholars - even self-identified progressives and moderates such as Imam Hamza Yusuf in the United States and Professor Tariq Ramadan in the UK - consider homosexuality to be a grave sin. The Quran, after all, explicitly condemns the people of Lot for "approach[ing] males" (26:165) and for "lust[ing] on men in preference to women" (7:81), and describes marriage as an institution that is gender-based and procreative.
What about me? Where do I stand on this? For years I've been reluctant to answer questions on the subject. I was afraid of the "homophobe" tag. I didn't want my gay friends and colleagues to look at me with horror, suspicion or disdain.
So let me be clear: yes, I'm a progressive who supports a secular society in which you don't impose your faith on others - and in which the government, no matter how big or small, must always stay out of the bedroom. But I am also (to Richard Dawkins's continuing disappointment) a believing Muslim. And, as a result, I really do struggle with this issue of homosexuality. As a supporter of secularism, I am willing to accept same-sex weddings in a state-sanctioned register office, on grounds of equity. As a believer in Islam, however, I insist that no mosque be forced to hold one against its wishes.
If you're gay, that doesn't mean I want to discriminate against you, belittle or bully you, abuse or offend you. Not at all. I don't want to go back to the dark days of criminalisation and the imprisonment of gay men and women; of Section 28 and legalised discrimination. I'm disgusted by the violent repression and persecution of gay people across the Muslim-majority world.
I cringe as I watch footage of the buffoonish Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claiming: "In Iran, we don't have homosexuals... we do not have this phenomenon." I feel sick to my stomach when I read accounts of how, in the late 1990s, the Taliban in Afghanistan buried gay men alive and then toppled brick walls on top of them.
Nor is this an issue only in the Middle East and south Asia. In March, a Muslim caller to a radio station in New York stunned the host after suggesting, live on air, that gay Americans should be beheaded in line with "sharia law". Here in the UK, in February, Muslim MPs who voted in favour of the same-sex marriage bill - such as the shadow justice secretary, Sadiq Khan - faced death threats and accusations of apostasy from a handful of Muslim extremists. And last year, a homophobic campaign launched by puffed-up Islamist gangs in east London featured ludicrous and offensive stickers declaring the area a "gay-free zone".
I know it might be hard to believe, but Islam is not a religion of violence, hate or intolerance - despite the best efforts of a minority of reactionaries and radicals to argue (and behave) otherwise. Out of the 114 chapters of the Quran, 113 begin by introducing the God of Islam as a God of mercy and compassion. The Prophet Muhammad himself is referred to as "a mercy for all creation". This mercy applies to everyone, whether heterosexual or homosexual. As Tariq Ramadan has put it: "I may disagree with what you are doing because it's not in accordance with my belief but I respect who are you are." He rightly notes that this is "a question of respect and mutual understanding".
I should also point out here that most British Muslims oppose the persecution of homosexuals. A 2011 poll for the think tank Demos found that fewer than one in four British Muslims disagreed with the statement "I am proud of how Britain treats gay people".
There is much to be proud of, but still much to be done. Homophobic bullying is rife in our schools. Nine out of ten gay or lesbian teenagers report being bullied at school over their sexual orientation. LGBT teens are two to three times more likely to commit suicide than their heterosexual peers.
Despite the recent slight fall in "sexual orientation hate crimes", in 2012 there were still 4,252 such crimes in England and Wales, four out of every five of which involved "violence against the person". In March, for instance, a man was jailed for killing a gay teenager by setting him on fire; the killer scrawled homophobic insults across 18-year-old Steven Simpson's face, forearm and stomach.
Regular readers will know that I spend much of my time speaking out against Islamophobic bigotry: from the crude stereotyping of Muslims in the media and discrimination against Muslims in the workplace to attacks on Muslim homes, businesses and places of worship.
The truth is that Islamophobia and homophobia have much in common: they are both, in the words of the (gay) journalist Patrick Strudwick, "at least partly fuelled by fear. Fear of the unknown..." Muslims and gay people alike are victims of this fear - especially when it translates into hate speech or physical attacks. We need to stand side by side against the bigots and hate-mongers, whether of the Islamist or the far-right variety, rather than turn on one another or allow ourselves to be pitted against each other, 'Muslims v gays'.
We must avoid stereotyping and demonising each other at all costs. "The biggest question we have as a society," says a Muslim MP who prefers to remain anonymous, "is how we accommodate difference."
Remember also that negative attitudes to homosexuality are not the exclusive preserve of Muslims. In 2010, the British Social Attitudes survey showed that 36 % of the public regarded same-sex relations as "always" or "mostly wrong".
A Muslim MP who voted in favour of the same-sex marriage bill tells me that most of the letters of protest that they received in response were from evangelical Christians, not Muslims. And, of course, it wasn't a Muslim who took the life of poor Steven Simpson.
Yet ultimately I didn't set out to write this piece to try to bridge the gap between Islam and homosexuality. I am not a theologian. Nor am I writing this in response to the ongoing parliamentary debate about the pros and cons of same-sex marriage. I am not a politician.
I am writing this because I want to live in a society in which all minorities - Jews, Muslims, gay people and others - are protected from violence and abuse, from demonisation and discrimination. And because I want to apologise for any hurt or offence that I may have caused to my gay brothers and lesbian sisters.
And yes, whatever our differences - straight or gay, religious or atheist, male or female - we are all brothers and sisters. As the great Muslim leader of the 7th Century and son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad, Ali ibn Abi Talib, once declared: "Remember that people are of two kinds; they are either your brothers in religion or your brothers in mankind."
Mehdi Hasan is political director of the Huffington Post UK and a contributing writer for the New Statesman, where this article is crossposted]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: Putting A Smile On Nigel's Facetag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-19T17:41:01-04:002013-05-20T03:00:31-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/ 1) PUTTING A SMILE ON NIGEL'S FACE
The 'loongate' controversy is really starting to hurt David Cameron - and help Nigel Farage. From the Telegraph's splash:
"Conservative activists have begun defecting to the UK Independence Party in protest at the Tory leadership's 'arrogant and insulting' attitude towards grassroots members.
"Local party campaigners, including the chairman of one constituency association, will this week pledge their support for Nigel Farage after one of David Cameron's allies described grassroots Tories as 'mad, swivel–eyed loons'.
"Mr Farage uses an advertisement in The Daily Telegraph today to urge Conservative voters to back Ukip. The 'loons' description, he says, is 'the ultimate insult' from a party leadership that has betrayed the trust of its own supporters.
"He writes in the advertisement: 'Only an administration run by a bunch of college kids, none of whom have ever had a proper job in their lives, could so arrogantly write off their own supporters.'
Meanwhile, the Times reports that "Downing Street is conceding that the UK Independence Party could come first in next year’s European elections. A senior figure at No 10 said privately that it was now a 'reasonable assumption' that Nigel Farage’s party would top the poll in 2014, despite repeated attempts by David Cameron to stop the loss of Tory votes to UKIP."
Can Cameron shut the 'Loongate' story down? The Guardian reports that "Lord Feldman, the Conservative co-chairman, is to be challenged at a meeting of the party board on Monday over allegations that he made disparaging remarks about Tory grassroots activists... Brian Binley, the Conservative MP for Northampton South who has been an officer of the party for 54 years, said: 'This is a very disturbing matter and needs a full and proper review at the party board meeting. From that meeting I will decide how I will act thereafter.'"
"David Cameron is in danger of alienating not only his enemies but also his friends," says the Times leader. "However much he disagrees with his party base, they are worthy of his respect."
Cameron, of course, will say he does respect his "base"; the point is that he has to find a way of turning his words into actions. And he'll have to do it fast.
Writing on the Conservative Home website, former Tory vice-chair and donor Lord Ashcroft issues the following warning: "We need to pull ourselves out of what threatens to become a spiral of irrelevance."
2) GAY MARRIAGE REVOLT, PART 544
The "mad, swivel-eyed loons", meanwhile, could inflict a "new defeat on Cameron", in the words of the Times splash this morning.
The Tory leader, reports the paper, "faces another defeat in the Commons today as his leadership comes under unprecedented strain from angry party members and revolts over gay marriage and Europe.
"The Prime Minister's plan to introduce gay marriage is set to be plunged into chaos if Labour MPs join Tory rebels in a key vote today. It comes amid gloomy predictions within Downing Street that the UK Independence Party will win most seats in next year's European elections.
"Government sources warned that a Tory 'wrecking amendment', designed to hand heterosexual couples the right to have a civil partnership, could cost £4 billion and delay the introduction of same-sex marriages by up to two years."
The Guardian splashes on "Number 10 pleads with Labour to save gay marriage bill." The paper reports that government warnings "were aimed at Ed Miliband, Labour's leader, whose support for the amendment will be decisive. One source said: 'Ed Miliband clearly wants to make political capital here. Perhaps he should think of the consequences.'
"But Labour rejected what it called the 'farcical' warnings, as sources noted that the supposed size of the 'price tag' had grown from £3bn to £4bn in five days. One source said: 'They are wrecking this bill themselves and trying to blame others.'"
Meanwhile, the Guardian story adds that "at least two cabinet ministers – the environment secretary Owen Paterson and the Wales secretary David Jones – are prepared to vote for a series of amendments that would grant exemptions to teachers and registrars."
"On Sunday Tory activists attacked David Cameron's support for gay marriage, claiming it had made winning the next general election 'virtually impossible'.
"In a letter to the prime minister, more than 30 present and former local party chairmen warned that Cameron's backing for a change in the law had led to voters switching their support to Ukip.
"However a competing letter, signed by over 125 Senior Conservative Party activists including association chairmen, urges the prime minister not to back down. 'This is an issue of particular importance to younger voters and MPs risk appearing out of touch if they pander to a vocal minority,' they said."
Interestingly, the Telegraph reports (on its front page!) that the death of cabinet office Francis Maude's "gay brother from Aids convinced him to support moves to legalise marriage for same–sex couples".
3) THE EUROSCEPTICS' £92 BILLION POUND GAMBLE
Britain's leading europhiles, led by Sirs Martin Sorrell and Richard Branson, have hit back at their critics this morning - from the Independent's splash:
"Some of Britain’s most successful and eminent business leaders have accused Eurosceptic MPs of putting 'politics before economics' and abandoning the national interest in their calls for Britain to leave the European Union.
"In a letter to The Independent, the group issues a trenchant riposte to politicians who have argued that Britain’s economic interest would be better served outside the EU... The letter, which is signed by senior figures including the current and next presidents of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) as well as the chairmen of BT, Deloitte, Lloyds and Centrica, is the first co-ordinated response from the business community to increasing anti-European political rhetoric.
".... [I]n their letter the businessmen write that on a purely economic basis, exiting the EU would be deeply damaging to Britain. 'The economic case to stay in the EU is overwhelming,' they say. 'To Britain, membership is estimated to be worth between £31bn and £92bn per year in income gains, or between £1,200 to £3,500 for every household.'"
4) PAY PEANUTS, GET MONKEYS?
Sorry, what? Is it April Fool's Day? From the Guardian:
"MPs may receive a pay rise of about £10,000 a year amid reports that the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (Ipsa) has decided that their salaries are lagging behind civil service pay.
"John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, is understood to be sympathetic to a pay rise after saying that MPs are paid an 'ordinary' amount of money.
"MPs are paid £65,738 a year, a figure that was frozen in 2011 for 2012-13. The leaders of the main parties have resisted pay increases on the grounds that it would be wrong for MPs' salaries to increase while public sector workers are experiencing a pay freeze."
Bear in mind, however, that the average annual earnings of full-time workers in the UK stood at £26,500 in 2012. How's that for "an 'ordinary' amount of money"?
"A senior MP said he feared they would be accused of having their ‘snouts in the trough’ but argued: ‘Voters may not like it, but if you pay peanuts you get monkeys.’"
5) GO INDEPENDENT... GO BUST!
George Osborne's department continues to make rather strong economic arguments against Scottish independence. From the Express:
"Another banking crisis like the 2008 crash could pose a 'very serious risk' to the taxpayers of an independent Scotland, according to a Treasury report.
"Scotland would be vulnerable to financial shocks and the volatility of banking due to its large banking sector compared to the size of its economy, the paper states.
"... Warning that the value of Scottish banks is 12 times Scotland's GDP, it suggests they could be too big for an independent Scotland to save in the event of another crisis."
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this video of the funniest bloopers from the US version of 'The Office', starring Steve Carell, which aired its last ever episode last week.
6) CUT 5,000 JOBS; HIRE 10,000 MORE
I guess this is what they call a false economy - from the Telegraph:
"The Army has launched a campaign for 10,000 recruits, weeks before thousands of experienced soldiers who have fought in Iraq and Afghanistan will lose their jobs.
"The Ministry of Defence will appeal for fresh applicants in a television campaign starting today.
"Next month, about 5,300 troops will go in the single biggest round of Armed Forces redundancies under the Coalition. Critics argue that the Army is losing valuable expertise as it sheds trained soldiers in favour of young recruits, many of whom start on salaries of £275 per week – or just over £14,000 per year."
"The Department for Work and Pensions has delayed publication of the first set of official statistics detailing the extra number of jobless claimants losing benefits as a result of a tougher sanctions regime introduced by the coalition in October.
"The DWP said there were "some significant doubts about the quality of the new regime statistics" due to have been published this week, adding it was not possible to give a date when they would be in a form fit to print.
"Ministers have also suspended publication of figures relating to employment and support allowance."
The paper adds: "The DWP has been repeatedly criticised for its use of statistics."
Now there's an understatement.
8) THE NHS, THE PRIVATE COMPANY AND (THE LACK OF) PATIENT CARE
"A private company that took over the running of a GP out-of-hours service in north London has been severely criticised by the NHS regulator for failing to provide enough doctors to keep patients safe.
"The Care Quality Commission’s report on Harmoni, Britain’s biggest provider of out-of-hours care which runs services across the country and earns £100m a year from NHS contracts, is the first evidence from an official body that cost-cutting by private companies may be harming patient care."
Who'd have thought, eh?
9) 'A TARGETED ACT OF TERROR'
Is there a London connection to terror on the streets of Pakistan? Pakistani politician and ex-cricketer Imran Khan thinks so. From the Times:
"Imran Khan has blamed a London-based political rival for the murder of Zahra Shahid Hussain, a leading member of his party in Karachi.
"Mrs Hussain, 59, a close friend of the former cricketer who leads Pakistan's PTI party, was shot in the head outside her home in what Mr Khan called a 'targeted act of terror'. The mother of two had been leading protests against alleged ballot-rigging by Karachi's dominant political party, Muttahida Qaumi Movement, (MQM).
"... Mr Khan hit out at his political rival, Altaf Hussain, who has run MQM from his home in North London for more than 20 years... He added that he held the British Government responsible since he had warned them about Mr Hussain's 'open threats to kill PTI workers'.
"The MQM strongly denied Mr Khan's allegation... The Metropolitan Police has confirmed that it was reviewing whether Mr Hussain, a British citizen, broke UK laws as he responded to allegations that his party had rigged ballots in Karachi, its political heartland."
"Tony Blair has agreed to advise the next government of Albania in a deal which could be worth millions of pounds.
"Albania is hoping to join the European Union and is understood to be interested in New Labour-style reforms.
"Mr Blair is being lined up to work as a consultant for the Socialist Party if, as expected, it wins next month’s elections."
The paper reminds us that Blair "was criticised after it emerged earlier this year that he will advise president Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, whose police force shot and killed 15 striking oil workers in December 2011. The deal with Kazakhstan was said to be worth £16million."
QUOTE UNQUOTE
"We all know what's going on inside the Conservative party. The UK isolation party and their fellow travellers in the Conservatives are sort of operating a Soprano-style protection racket inside the Conservative party. They are saying: 'Do what we want, give us what we are demanding, or we are going to burn your home down.'" - Peter Mandelson, speaking on the Andrew Marr show yesterday.
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From yesterday's Sunday Times/YouGov poll:
Labour 40
Conservatives 29
Ukip 14
Lib Dems 9
That would give Labour a majority of 112.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@leicesterliz Our economy is becoming more global, our society more liberal - Tory party views on Europe & gay marriage show they're stuck in the past
@DanHannanMEP Perhaps the reason that Euro-zealots are rarely called 'swivel-eyed loons' is that Eurosceptics are naturally politer.
@Mike_Fabricant Word to the wise. If you want your email ignored, address it to all MPs simultaneously & start "Honorable & Beloved Member of Parliament"...
900 WORDS OR MORE
Steve Richards, writing in the Guardian, says: "Cameron had the chance to defy the 'swivel-eyed loons' and remake his party. He failed."
Tim Montgomerie, writing in the Times, says: "Here’s the speech Cameron should give now."
Tim Bale, writing in the Telegraph, says: "The latest row between leadership and base shows that the Tories can no longer rely on unquestioning loyalty."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: Swivel-Eyed Loons Editiontag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-19T03:44:35-04:002013-05-19T05:07:21-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The five things you need to know on Sunday 19 May 2013...
1) SWIVEL-EYED LOONS, EH?
How many references to 'swivel-eyed loons' can you count on the front pages this morning?
"'Swivel-eyed loons' storm engulfs PM," screams the Mail on Sunday.
'Swivel-eyed loons' hit back at the PM, declares the Sunday Telegraph.
"A co-chairman of the Conservative party was embroiled in an extraordinary row last night over claims he had labelled Tory activists 'mad, swivel-eyed loons'.
"Lord Feldman, one of David Cameron's oldest friends, staunchly denies he was the anonymous senior Tory quoted in several newspapers making derogatory remarks about grassroots members during a conversation in a restaurant. Downing Street weighed in yesterday in defence of the multimillionaire businessman against his accusers, saying the prime minister 'supports Lord Feldman's position'."
"The Conservatives conceded that Lord Feldman was at the restaurant at the heart of the row, the Blue Boar Smokehouse at the InterContinental Hotel in St James's, central London, attending a Conservative Friends of Pakistan event. It is alleged that the peer made the remarks to journalists who were also dining there."
Feldman has strongly denied using those words and says he is taking legal advice. Meanwhile, both The Times and The Daily Telegraph, which published the original story without identifying the 'senior Tory figure', continue to stand by their scoop, threatening, in the words of the Independent on Sunday, "an extraordinary stand-off between Downing Street and newspapers".
Oh, and the Mail on Sunday has a long memory: "A report in the Financial Times [in 2012] said Mr Cameron 'tells colleagues that anyone who wants to talk to him about the EU is "swivel-eyed"'. The comment came in a major profile of the Prime Minister by the paper's respected political editor George Parker. Mr Parker last night declined to say who told him the PM uses the term. The FT profile was compiled with substantial help from Lord Feldman, among others" - though the paper adds: "There is no suggestion that it was Lord Feldman who told the FT that Mr Cameron calls people with strong views on the EU 'swivel-eyed'."
2) 'LOSING CONTROL OF HIS PARTY'
That's Geoffrey Howe's verdict on David Cameron's leadership - specifically on the issue of - what else? - Europe. The former Tory foreign secretary, who helped bring down Margaret Thatcher, says recent events "have brought the debate on Europe within the Conservative party to a new, almost farcical, low".
"The prime minister has opened a Pandora's box politically and seems to be losing control of his party in the process," writes Lord Howe in the Observer. "The ratchet-effect of Euroscepticism has now gone so far that the Conservative leadership is in effect running scared of its own backbenchers, let alone Ukip, having allowed deep anti-Europeanism to infect the very soul of the party."
Ouch. The grandees' grandee continues: "Last week has shown that the Conservative party's long, nervous breakdown over Europe continues and what is essentially a Tory problem is now, once again, becoming a national problem."
Indeed it is. But will non-swivel-eyed members of the Tory backbenches or grassroots pay any attention? I doubt it. Not only is Europe more important for them than any other national or party issue but they also loathe Howe (and his fellow Europhiles Heseltine and Clarke) for helping to topple their heroine, Mrs T.
3) GAY MARRIAGE IS BACK!
They're not just revolting over Europe. From the Sunday Times:
"David Cameron is facing further humiliation over the gay marriage bill this week as more than 150 Tory MPs, including cabinet ministers, prepare to vote for a series of amendments watering down the proposal and protecting 'conscientious objectors'.
"Owen Paterson, the environment secretary, is to defy ministerial convention and join MPs voting for a series of amendments that would permit teachers, faith schools and registrars to opt out of marrying gay men and lesbians.
"John Hayes, the Cabinet Office minister recently brought into Downing Street to act as a sounding board for the Tory right wing, is also planning to back the amendments. In a last-ditch attempt to see off the rebellion, ministers have signalled that they plan to introduce measures to make it clear that teachers with a personal objection to gay marriage would not have to promote it in schools. Likewise, registrars who object to gay marriage may be able to opt out of marrying same-sex couples in town halls unless there was a staff shortage that could lead to weddings being cancelled."
You wouldn't want to be a Downing Street official reading this morning's Sunday papers, would you?
4) ED'S WAR ON THE TAX DODGERS
In the midst of the Tory civil war over Europe, and the rise and rise of Ukip, Labour leader Ed Miliband is desperately trying to get some attention. The Observer reports, on its front page:
"In an interview with the Observer, the Labour leader urged David Cameron to find agreement at the G8 summit of leaders next month around an ambitious agenda forcing corporate giants to pay their fair share.
"He said that, if Cameron fails, he himself as prime minister would unilaterally act to make multinationals operating in the UK more transparent about the money they make here, the movement of cash around their corporate structures, and the justifications for the tax they pay.
"He would also increase the resources of HM Revenue and Customs to strike at tax cheats.
"Miliband, who will speak at a Google event in Hertfordshire on Wednesday, said he believed some multinationals, including the internet giant, were not living up to their responsibilities to society... Miliband said: 'Now, what is the politicians' responsibility: change the law. But it is also to talk about the kind of society we want to create and what the responsibilities of a company like Google are. I don't think they are living up to their responsibilities at the moment, and I will be very clear about that on Wednesday.'"
"A former Google executive has blown the whistle on a massive and 'immoral' tax avoidance scheme that has “cheated” British taxpayers out of hundreds of millions of pounds over the past decade.
"Barney Jones, 34, who worked for the internet search giant between 2002 and 2006, has lifted the lid on an elaborate structure which diverts British profits through Ireland to the Bermuda tax haven... Jones, a devout Christian and father of four, is ready to hand over a cache of more than 100,000 emails and documents to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), detailing the 'concocted scheme'."
5) 'WE HAVE TOO MANY MUSLIMS IN THIS COUNTRY'
Nigel Farage must be enjoying himself this morning. The Independent on Sunday points out that the UK Independence Party has "seized" on the 'loongate' controversy, and quotes the Ukip leader as saying: "If you are a Conservative supporter who believes in Ukip ideas then your party hates you. Come and join us."
Ukip is riding high in the polls - from the Huffington Post:
"Support for the UK Independence Party has reached a record 19%, according to a poll which saw both Labour and the Tories losing ground. Labour was down three points to 35%, the Conservatives were down one to 29% and the Liberal Democrats were unchanged on 8%... The ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday found support for Nigel Farage's party was up 4% since the last survey a month ago and gives Ukip the highest share recorded by any pollster."
But it isn't all good news for Ukip - the Sunday Mirror takes a closer look at the party's own 'mad, swivel-eyed loon' tendency:
"UKIP's leader of Lincs Council Chris Pain, the party's East Midlands regional chairman, wrote: 'Have you noticed that if you rearrange the letters in 'illegal immigrants', and add just a few more letters, it spells, 'Go home you free-loading, benefit-grabbing, resource-sucking, baby-making, non-English-speaking ********* and take those other hairy-faced, sandalwearing, bomb-making, camel-riding, goat-********, raghead ******** with you.'
"... Peter Entwistle, party chairman in Bury, Greater Manchester, labelled President Barack Obama a Muslim, writing: 'I bet he's a closet 'Imam' as well! If I ever see him on a Greyhound bus wearing a rucksack, I'm getting off!!'
"The party's deputy chairman in Scotland, Misty Thackeray, 'liked' a Facebook group claiming 'paedophilia is part of Islamic tradition'. He also praised far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders, a self-confessed "hater of Islam". Recommending Mr Wilders' new book, he said: 'Geert is great ...(peace be upon him.. lol) ..!'
"Meanwhile Tiggs Keywood-Wainwright, a UKIP councillor in Boston, Lincs, complained about mosques being built in "quintessentially English" Cambridge. 'Is nowhere sacred for the Brits in Britain any more?' she wrote. 'Bottom line is we have too many muslims in this country!'"
QUOTE UNQUOTE
"Can we fulfil our manifesto? The best way to do that is to continue with the coalition, but if that wasn’t the case then we’d have to face the new circumstances in whatever way we should." - David Cameron speaking to Total Politics magazine and hinting for the first time that the Tories could quit the coalition before 2015.
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From the ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday:
Labour 35
Conservatives 29
Ukip 19
Lib Dems 8
That would give Labour a majority of 72.
From the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times:
Labour 40
Conservatives 29
Ukip 14
Lib Dems 9
That would give Labour a majority of 112.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@LordAshcroft Strategy emerging. UKIP fruitcakes and clowns. Activists mad swivel-eyed loons and oh some voters f--king muslims. Not sure it will work!!
@NadineDorriesMP That Lord Feldman has denied 'mad swivel eyed loon' comment is almost worse than the comment itself. No one will believe a word he says now.
@gallaghereditor For the record, the @Telegraph stands by the swivel-eyed loon splash on p1. See @jameskirkup tweet.
900 WORDS OR MORE
Matthew D'Ancona, writing in the Sunday Telegraph, says: "Tory self-harm over Europe has buried the good news."
Andrew Rawnsley, writing in the Observer, says: "The Conservative factions are warring so zealously over Europe that a formal split in the party is not unthinkable."
Janet Street-Porter, writing in the Independent on Sunday, says: "Eight weeks in prison does not make Chris Huhne and Vicky Pryce instant experts."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: A Pre-Election Divorce?tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-16T20:17:41-04:002013-05-17T03:34:46-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The ten things you need to know on Friday 17 May 2013...
1) A PRE-ELECTION DIVORCE?
With just two years to go till the general election, and the coalition in turmoil over Europe (see point 2, below) and civil liberties, among other issues, there's a rather tasty splash on the front of today's Times:
"Senior Tories have begun to plan for the early break-up of the coalition amid fears that Nick Clegg will be unable to keep his party in government until 2015.
"Some of David Cameron's senior aides are talking through a range of scenarios, including the Lib Dems quitting up to a year before polling day.
"One such contingency envisages Vince Cable taking over from Mr Clegg and using the opposition benches to reposition the Lib Dems as equidistant between the Tories and Labour.
"Another scenario involves an 'amicable divorce' in which the Lib Dems agree to Mr Cameron leading a minority government and wave through next year's Budget, but put campaigning distance between themselves and the Conservatives."
2) THE THREE-LINE WHIP ON EUROPE
Yes, the Tories continue to bang on about Europe. From the Sun:
"David Cameron yesterday ordered Tories to support a backbench Bill promising voters an in-out EU referendum by the end of 2017.
"Conservative MP James Wharton announced he will introduce the Bill in the Commons next month.
"And the PM slapped a threeline whip on the move in a bid to unite the party after a week of turmoil.
"... But Mr Wharton, 29 — who became the Tories' youngest MP when he was elected in 2010 — faces an uphill battle to force his Bill through as both Labour and the Lib Dems are opposed to it. Asked last night if Ed Miliband was planning to kill the Bill, a Labour spokesman said: 'Yes — he does not support it, he does not want it to go through.'"
The big question is whether Wharton's constituents in the very marginal seat of Stockton South approve of him using parliamentary time not to push for improvements in their living standards, their public services or other 'everyday' issues but to help his party get through an internal crisis and try and reach a compromise position on the anoraky issue of an EU referendum.
Meanwhile, writing in the Telegraph, Labour 'grandee' and ex-EU commissioner Peter Mandelson says: "[F]or his own sake as well as the country's, the PM cannot allow Ukip's appeal to spread further without pushing back against their isolationist demands... All the party leaders need to make clear that quitting the EU would be a colossal indulgence. It might fill many with a sense of pride in Britain's separateness, but it would also mean greater isolation, less trade, smaller influence and fewer friends."
And writing in the Guardian, CBI boss John Cridland hits back at the eurosceptics; he says: "At a time of great economic challenge, could UK businesses struggling at the margins survive without access to our primary market for an unknown period? Submitting to rules without the power to influence them is not my idea of much-touted greater sovereignty."
3) FARAGE IN THE PUB. FOR ALL THE WRONG REASONS.
"It's a lock in at the pub... for his own safety," says the headline on the front of the Independent. Yep, the leader of the UK Independence Party should give some serious thought to rebranding his outfit as the England Independence Party - Ukip, you see, aren't that popular north of the border.
"Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, had to be given a police escort through an angry crowd as he tried to take his party's anti-EU message to Scotland yesterday.
"The Ukip leader was holding a press conference in Edinburgh's Canons' Gait pub when protesters started to arrive and heckle him, before police cleared them out. A hostile demonstration then started outside, to shouts of 'racist, Nazi scum' and calls for Mr Farage to 'go back to England'. The demonstrators appear to have been young, leftwing supporters of Scottish independence."
The Ukip leader issued a pretty strong response afterwards, describing the protests as "anti–British and anti–English. They hate the Union Jack... If this is the face of Scottish nationalism, it's a pretty ugly picture."
4) THE GOVE-NOR?
Yesterday my colleague Tom Moseley wondered whether Michael Gove is on manoeuvres. He's never out of the headlines.
The paper, reporting on Gove's Sir Keith Joseph Memorial lecture last night, says:
"Campaigners against the Government's planning reforms are opposing social mobility, aspiration and the family, a senior Cabinet minister has suggested.
"Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, said the countryside should not be considered sacred when it comes to building new homes and suggested that the Coalition's reforms to the planning system would have been approved by Margaret Thatcher."
Them be fighting words...
The Telegraph piece also reminds us of Nick Clegg's cutting remarks about the education secretary on his LBC radio show yesterday morning: "Michael, who I think is a perfectly nice chap, doesn't know the first thing about the [Lib Dems] ... of course, he knows a thing or two about leadership ambitions, but that's a different matter."
The Guardian reports: "Michael Gove has set out a prime ministerial vision of a compassionate Conservatism that champions aspiration in a speech that will fuel speculation about his leadership ambitions," adding that Gove "touched on no fewer than 11 policy areas".
"Google was branded 'devious, calculating and unethical' yesterday by MPs who accused the internet giant of deliberately subverting its motto, 'don't be evil', in order to pay less tax.
"Infuriated members of the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee (PAC) lashed out at the company as one of its most senior executives insisted it was not 'selling' advertising in the UK - but in low-tax Ireland instead.
"The arrangement allowed Google to pay just £6m in UK corporation tax in 2011 despite generating more than £3bn in advertising revenues in this country.
"'You are a company that says you do no evil,' said Margaret Hodge, the committee's chairman. 'I think that you do do evil. You use smoke and mirrors to avoid paying tax.'"
The paper's leader says: "In the austerity after the banking crisis, the line between reasonable and unreasonable exploitation of the rules is shifting - and Google is on the wrong side of it."
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this incredible video of a deer crashing through a bus window.
6) 'A REAL SENSE OF ANGER'
Defence secretary Philip Hammond has said his boss's gay marriage proposals have angered "vast numbers of people" and used up a great deal of parliamentary and government time.
"Mr Hammond, who has been open about his opposition to gay marriage, told the BBC's Question Time: "This change does redefine marriage. For millions and millions of people who are married, the meaning of marriage changes.
"There is a real sense of anger among many people who are married that any government thinks it has the ability to change the definition of an institution like marriage."
He was also critical of the amount of government time that had been spent on the issue, saying: " I have just never felt that this is what we should be focusing on."
"Civil partnerships could be expanded to included heterosexual couples under government plans revealed last night, after culture secretary Maria Miller conceded a 'review' into the future of the unions.
"However some MPs fear the amendment tabled at the last minute to the gay marriage bill is actually designed to kick the issue into the long grass.
"... Some pro-gay marriage MPs who also support civil partnerships for heterosexual couples suspect some Tory MPs of wanting to eventually restrict marriage to religious ceremonies while the state just conducts civil partnerships."
Today, incidentally, is International Day Against Homophobia - an issue I tackle in my New Statesman column this week (which will be up online on Monday).
7) THE MAN FROM BLUE LABOUR
The Guardian's political editor Patrick Wintour profiles and interviews the man behind Labour's all-important 'blank sheet' policy review - Dagenham MP Jon Cruddas. Wintour writes:
"Cruddas is determined the policy review does not fall into a mechanistic set of Whitehall prescriptions that is designed to modernise the country but fails to strike the right note with the electorate. With his 'Blue Labour' roots, Cruddas insists 'it is tackling issues politics have ignored for decades like mental health, fatherhood and the ownership of football clubs or learning lessons from far and wide – even Republican Texans on prison reform'."
8) BARACK'S BULWORTH COMPLEX
The US president is in serious trouble. From the Financial Times:
"Republicans today launch the first of several congressional inquiries into the inappropriate treatment of conservative activists by the Internal Revenue Service as they try to link the White House directly to the scandal.
"Barack Obama forced out the acting head of the US tax collection agency late on Wednesday. The president also released 100 pages of emails about the handling of the deadly attack on the US consulate in Benghazi last September.
"... Under fire for not engaging transparently on either issue, the White House is attempting to get on top of both controversies before they swamp the president's ability to shape issues on Capitol Hill, notably immigration reform."
Isn't it odd that the Republicans would rather attack Obama over these largely trivial and trumped-up issues rather than over, say, the president's declaration that he has the right to kill US citizens with unmanned drones and without trial or arrest, or the president's decision to go to war in Libya in 2011 without congressional approval?
On a side note, the New York Times reports that Obama "has spoken privately of 'going Bulworth,' a reference to the 1998 Warren Beatty movie about a California Senate candidate who becomes unusually honest after having run as a centrist Democrat."
"Japan’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in a year, providing evidence to support the effect of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s stimulus measures."
"Gross domestic product grew by 0.9 per cent in the three months to March and this translates into an annual growth rate of 3.5 per cent."
"Hideki Matsumura, a senior economist at the Japan Research Institute, pointed to a jump in spending boosted by a rally in Japanese shares and recovering exports after the country's central bank pumped trillions of yen into the money supply chain, pushing down the yen's value... Abenomics is the name given by the markets to Mr Abe's attempts to kickstart Japan's stagnant economy."
"One in four MPs thinks that parliament, where the price of alcohol is subsidised, has an unhealthy drinking culture. A cross-party survey of 150 MPs reveals that 39 (26%) believe there is too much drinking in Westminster.
"The charity Alcohol Concern, which commissioned the research, called for changes to the availability of drink in the House of Commons, where 13,000 passholders - including MPs, peers, their staff and journalists - can drink in its many bars and dining rooms."
QUOTE UNQUOTE
"My instinct is, [Ed Miliband] going to be cleverer than we think and we'd be very unwise to take him less than seriously." - former Tory frontbencher David Davis MP, speaking on BBC1's Question Time Extra last night.
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From the Sun/YouGov poll:
Labour 39
Conservatives 31
Ukip 15
Lib Dems 9
That would give Labour a majority of 92.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@TimMontgomerie Idea Gove speech is leadership bid is absurd - saying 'i love Blair' and antagonising Telegraph on planning hardly sucks up to Tory voters
@margotjamesmp Recession in Eurozone now 18 months old, even Germany at zero growth, all the more reason for Britain's exporters to get out beyond Europe
@drwollastonmp Qn is do we want to descend to a State which accepts mobs being deployed to intimidate politicians so that they need police protection?
900 WORDS OR MORE
Simon Jenkins, writing in the Guardian, says: "Now we know HS2's a fiasco. But can George Osborne admit it?"
Fraser Nelson, writing in the Telegraph, says: "The truth is, we can’t afford a shiny new transport system like HS2."
Plus, check out these two blogs on the horrific Oxford child abuse case and the alleged racial/religious implications on the HuffPost UK: British Muslim imam Ajmal Masroor says "I have come across young men from Bangladeshi and Arab backgrounds whose despicable views about white girls sent shivers down my spine" while British Muslim human rights activist Sara Khan asks: "Why unlike Asian abusers, have the religion, race or culture of white abusers' never been a matter of focus?"
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: The Great EU Protest Votetag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-16T01:59:00-04:002013-05-16T03:15:08-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The ten things you need to know on Thursday 16 May 2013...
1) THE GREAT EU PROTEST VOTE
So, Dave, how are all those carrots and concessions on Europe working out for you? From the Telegraph splash:
"Half of all Conservative backbenchers have voted to criticise David Cameron's Queen's Speech for failing to propose a law on a European Union referendum.
"In a symbolic expression of anger at the Coalition's European policy, 114 Conservative MPs, including ministerial aides, backed an amendment regretting the omission of a referendum law.
Despite the amendment being defeated by 272 votes to 130, thanks to Labour and Lib Dem opposition to the referendum demand, the paper says the vote "is believed to be the first time since 1946 that members of a governing party have voted against a Queen's Speech. It reflects deep Conservative unhappiness over Mr Cameron's Coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats."
The Guardian reports that the prime minister's aides "insisted the vote was not a blow to his authority, as he had given his backbenchers a free vote, but Cameron loyalists had pleaded with backbenchers to relent and trust the prime minister after he tried to placate them by rushing out a draft Conservative referendum bill."
Today, Tory MPs will anxiously await the results of the ballot for private member's bills, which could allow a backdoor attempt at legislating for a EU referendum in this parliament. As the Guardian notes, "[p]robably only the top seven MPs in the ballot have a chance of their bill being debated and becoming law, but William Hague, the foreign secretary, promised full Conservative support for the bill at a tough meeting of the backbench 22 committee."
Meanwhile Vince Cable, the Lib Dem business secretary, takes some potshots at the Tory eurosceptics in a comment piece for the Guardian, arguing that to quit the EU anytime soon would be a "leap into the dark":
"Leaving the EU thus means leaving behind the single market and the common external tariff, accepting the risk that a Britain might then face an array of tariff and non-tariff restrictions like the other 'outs' – Turkey, say, or Ukraine."
Oooh...
2) HAVING YOUR CAKE, AND EATING IT
She's only been back in the Tory Party a few days and she's already causing trouble. Over what? Over - what else? - Europe.
In an interview with this week's Spectator, rebellious backbencher Nadine Dorries - MP for Mid-Bedfordshire - hints that she could end up standing at the next general election for both the Conservatives AND Ukip.
"[Dorries] told The Spectator magazine that some of her constituents feel a 'huge amount of empathy with Ukip'. Asked whether she might stand on a joint Ukip–Tory ticket, she said: 'I will be having that kind of conversation with my association'.
"She added: 'I feel it would be a travesty if Ukip came in and took the seats off our councillors or indeed me when actually their policies and their beliefs are very much Ukip. Because what we have done, we have thrown clothes off and they have picked them up and put them on."
"Mrs Dorries's local association and the Conservative Party would have to agree to allow her to stand on a joint ticket. A Conservative spokesman insisted: 'This is not party policy, and it's not going to happen.'"
We'll see... we'll see....
3) DOES THE COMPUTER SAY 'YES'?
Nimbies rejoice! "Ministers have got their sums wrong and left the controversial high-speed rail scheme with a £3billion funding gap," reports the Mail. It adds:
"Transport bosses have also exaggerated the benefits that the HS2 project will bring to communities in terms of jobs and growth, the damning analysis of the Government's business case claims. The publication of the report by the National Audit Office has cast serious doubts over the £33billion rail link and provoked a furious row after [Public Accounts Committee chair Margaret Hodge] called the economic justification for it 'ludicrous'.
But the coalition won't be giving up on HS2 without a fight.
"Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin hit back by rejecting the report's 'core conclusion' and said there was a clear case that HS2 would generate hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of pounds worth of economic benefits.
"Borrowing a line from the TV comedy series Little Britain, he insisted: 'We are not building HS2 simply because the computer says "Yes".'"
"Sir Mervyn King said that the Bank was raising its growth forecast modestly while trimming back its inflation outlook, the first time that it has done this since 2007.
"The Governor hailed the 'welcome change in the economic outlook' as he revealed his final set of forecasts before retiring after ten years at the helm of the Bank."
So, time to break out the bubble? Not quite. As the Times reports elsewhere in the paper:
"The unemployment rate in Britain has risen for the third successive quarter, with 15,000 more people jobless and looking for work in the three months to March. The total rose to 2.75 million, pushing the official unemployment rate up to 7.8 per cent of the workforce.
"There was also fresh evidence of a squeeze on real earnings, with wages growing by only 0.4 per cent, well below the level of consumer prices inflation at 2.8 per cent."
"The [Bank's] Inflation Report... failed to anticipate the most severe downturn in gross domestic product since the 1930s when the economy plummeted like a stone in 2008. And growth has fallen well short of the Inflation Report forecasts pretty much ever since. Indeed yesterday saw the first (modest) upward revision in an Inflation Report growth outlook since before the financial crisis. All the rest of the revisions have been downward, as the Bank has been forced to respond to weak output data flowing out of the Office for National Statistics."
5) LABOUR'S POLL BLOW
The Mail is rather excited byt he latest Ipsos Mori poll:
"Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour Party was under renewed scrutiny last night as its lead over the Conservatives fell to just three points.
"Support for the Opposition has slumped to 34%, down four points from a month ago, and its lowest level since the 2010 general election, according to the latest poll from Ipsos Mori."
The Tories were up two points on 31%, despite all the "turmoil over the EU referendum. But, as the Mail concedes:
"However the survey is of those who say they are certain to vote - and Labour supporters are less likely to say they will definitely turn up at the ballot box. But it does underscore how soft Labour's lead is."
The Labour lead is still soft, yes. But the idea that a single poll, or even a handful of polls, means Miliband's leadership should be "under renewed scrutiny" is nonsensical. And don't forget: even a 34% share, and 3% lead, would give Labour a majority of 22 (see 'Public Opinion Watch', below).
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this video of a goat (yes, a goat!) on a slide in a park.
6) 'I'M THE HEIR TO BLAIR'
Move over Dave, there's a new 'heir to Blair' in town. Speaking in front of the Commons education select committee yesterday, reports the Telegraph, the Tory education secretary Michael Gove made this rather audacious claim:
"'If you're saying I'm the heir to Blair or a disciple of David Blunkett (Labour's former education secretary) then I plead guilty to both.'
"He then clarified his remark, saying: 'Tony Blair will decide who his heir is but I am a great fan.'"
The Telegraph reports that "Conservative MPs are said to have been discussing privately whether Mr Gove's intellect, strong opinions and radical policy agenda would make him a better leader than Mr Cameron" while the New Statesman's cover story today suggests a Tory leadership 'dream ticket' of Gove and London mayor Boris Johnson.
Gove, incidentally, had some other, department-related things to say to MPs yesterday, as well. From the Independent's splash:
"Pupils will find it harder to gain a top grade GCSE pass under a radical change to the traditional ABC grading system being planned by Education Secretary Michael Gove today.
"He is planning to scrap the present grading system entirely and replace A* and A grade passes with a one, two, three or four pass.
"...Mr Gove told MPs of the proposal when he addressed members of the Commons select committee on education today, telling: 'We have set the bar too low. We have had a low level of expectations in the past.'"
As is so often the case with the the education secretary, not everyone is happy with his 'reform' plans:
"Mr Gove was accused by Labour MP David Ward of being 'quite insulting to thousands and thousands of teachers in many successful schools' by claiming they had low expectations.
"Graham Stuart, the Conservative chairman of the committee, also argued that Mr Gove could be 'deliberately' paving the way for 'grade deflation' in the exam system through the changes."
"Oil company executives should face criminal prosecutions if they are found to have fixed the price of petrol, David Cameron said last night.
"The Prime Minister will look urgently at 'extending criminal offences' to cover market manipulation in the energy sector, after BP and Shell offices were raided by European authorities on suspicion of rigging oil prices, he said."
The Mirror's front page shows a blood seeping out from a petrol pump, under the splash headline: "They're bleeding us dry".
The question is: where's Ed Miliband? Why is he allowing the PM to take the lead on this and channel public anger? Wasn't One Nation Labour all about challenging "vested interests" like the oil and energy companies?
"Company filings showed Amazon's main UK company paid just £3.2m in corporation tax on sales of £320m last year. However, the Seattle-based group has told investors its 2012 UK sales were £4.2bn."
9) OBAMA GETS A GRIP
Talking of tax, Obama has got rid of his tax chief. Why? The Times has the details:
"The head of the US tax agency was forced to resign last night as President Obama, embroiled by scandals on three fronts, went into damage-control mode.
"Mr Obama appeared on television to announce the dismissal of the head of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) over revelations that the agency had singled out conservative groups for additional scrutiny. At the same time, the White House published 99 pages of e-mails relating to the terrorist attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi in which four Americans died, the circumstances of which the Administration has been accused of covering up."
The president and his team need to get on the front foot soon or risk having Obama's second term - like Bill Clinton's - wrecked by hysterical, Republican-led investigations, inquiries and - yes - impeachments...
"Ed Miliband may be struggling to convince voters at home that he is the man to lead the country after the next election, but that has not stopped a leading Israeli newspaper from naming the Labour leader as the 20th most influential Jew on the planet.
"Mr Miliband has largely eschewed religion since being elected in 2010, telling the BBC that while he respected those who have faith, 'I don't believe in God personally'.
"His atheism has not stopped the Jerusalem Post from including Mr Miliband in its annual Jewish power list. He was only three places behind New York's mayor, Michael Bloomberg, and four behind Mark Zuckerberg, the man who gave the world Facebook. He even beats such luminaries as Sara Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister's wife, and Bar Refaeli, the supermodel."
QUOTE UNQUOTE
"It's finished. Look around. Wake up. Greece is a disaster." - Tory backbencher Richard Drax speaking about the EU in the Commons last night.
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From the Ipsos Mori poll:
Labour 34
Conservatives 31
Ukip 13
Lib Dems 10
That would give Labour a majority of 22.
From the Sun/YouGov poll:
Labour 40
Conservatives 30
Ukip 14
Lib Dems 10
That would give Labour a majority of 110.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@DanHannanMEP Conservative MPs vote for their own policy on a free vote. PM intensely relaxed. Cue headlines about defeats, disasters, bloody noses etc.
@johnprescott Allowing your MPs to talk about standing for two parties? Cameron really is Major Minor
@DPJHodges Given David Cameron's luck, Nadine Dorries will probably top the ballot for private members bills.
900 WORDS OR MORE
Peter Oborne, writing in the Telegraph, says: "Have MPs learnt a thing since 2009? Their greed suggests not."
Martin Kettle, writing in the Guardian, says: "Britons obsess about immigration, Germans focus on education."
David Aaronovitch, writing in the Times, says: "Parts of Britain – away from the capital – prefer the retro attitudes of the 1950s even if this makes them poorer."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: Dave's Red Linetag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-15T01:55:38-04:002013-05-15T03:10:55-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The ten things you need to know on Wednesday 15 May...
1) DAVE'S RED LINE
Today, the Commons speaker John Bercow will make a decision on whether or not to call a vote on the Tory eurosceptics' amendment to the Queen's speech (remember, the one which expresses 'regret' at the lack of a EU referendum bill?). Most of the original Conservative rebels are expected to still vote for this amendment - despite their party's publication of a draft bill last night guaranteeing a referendum on EU membership.
Everytime a Tory leader - be it Major, Hague, Cameron, whoever - makes a concession to his party's EU-obsessed, swivel-eyed wing, the eurosceptics pocket the concession, wait a very short period of time and then come back demanding more. The concessions are never enough. They've made it pretty clear that they won't be satisfied until we're out of the EU. Now. Or better yet: yesterday!
The Tories' draft bill would legally enshrine a referendum on the question: "Should Britain remain a member of the European Union?" - and the current party leader is now drawing a line in the sand: this far, no further. At least, that's what he and his aides want us to believe.
"David Cameron ruled out further concessions to Conservative rebels on Europe last night as his surprise embrace of an immediate referendum Bill threatened to fracture the party.
"Eurosceptics demanded that Mr Cameron go further and, if necessary, bring down the coalition to write his promised referendum into law. But Tory MPs in marginal seats criticised their colleagues for sounding 'like a broken record' on Europe and putting off voters.
"... Senior Tory sources said that there would be no more concessions to the party's Eurosceptics. 'We've got Obama and this Bill,' they said, referring to the support for Mr Cameron's strategy that President Obama gave after White House talks on Monday.
"'It's like building a dam,' the sources said. 'This is our red line — we're not going to give them any more ground.'"
The Guardian quotes Nicholas Soames, Tory backbencher and grandson of Churchill, who went on the BBC yesterday to complain of "his Eurosceptic colleagues behaving as if they were in a pub argument: 'So thin appears to be the trust that not even the prime minister's word is accepted by members of his own party.' The sceptics, he added, had insatiable demands. 'You concede a yard and immediately ... they want more. I think it is a lunatic way of proceeding.'"
Indeed it is. Let's see how red the red line stays...
2) CLEGG UNDER FIRE, PART ONE
It isn't just Cameron who's under fire over Europe; Tories - both on the front and backbenches - are targeting Lib Dem leader and arch-Europhile Nick Clegg.
"The dispute about Europe intensified yesterday as the Conservative party co-chairman Grant Shapps challenged Nick Clegg to show courage and back a draft in/out EU referendum bill, accusing the Liberal Democrats of 'complete disdain' for the views of the British people.
"Tory officials pointed to what they described as the hypocrisy of Clegg's abandoned promise in 2010 for a referendum on Europe.
"With Clegg standing in for David Cameron at prime minister's questions today, the deputy prime minister is expecting to be harried by Tory backbenchers challenging him to support the draft bill."
The Telegraph quotes senior Lib Dems describing the Conservative moves as "ridiculous posturing". A source close to Clegg told the paper: "We won't give up any government time to internal Conservative Party politics."
3) CLEGG UNDER FIRE, PART 2
On Sunday, Michael Gove was claiming that Nick Clegg had changed his position on the government's childcare reforms under pressure from left-wing Lib Dems and external pressure groups.
Now, the Telegraph reports that the deputy PM "has been accused of betrayal after leaked letters emerged showing that last year he backed child care plans that he is now trying to block.
"Ministers have accused the Deputy Prime Minister of threatening a plan that could bring down child care costs by relaxing rules on the number of children that childminders and nursery staff can care for.
"... Tory sources said the letters, obtained by the BBC, show that Mr Clegg had 'backtracked for purely political reasons'. Liz Truss, the education minister, said the Government would press ahead with the proposals."
4) 'THE FIRST RULE OF FIGHT CLUB...'
First Jon Cruddas was promising paid leave for fathers to attend antenatal classes; now Diane Abbott is taking on the 'crisis of masculinity'. From the Guardian:
"Britain is facing a 'crisis of masculinity', with rapid economic change warping male identity and encouraging machismo and misogyny, the Labour MP Diane Abbott will claim tomorrow. The shadow public health minister will say that unemployment and the economic downturn risks creating a generation of disaffected young men, fuelling homophobia, machismo and misogyny. She will also say men are failing to discuss the problems they face. 'It's all become a bit like the film Fight Club - the first rule of being a man in modern Britain is that you're not allowed to talk about it,' she will say in a speech to the thinktank Demos.
"The government must put the aim of full employment at its heart if these problems are to be solved, she believes. Abbott's words signal a move by Labour to capture the political battleground of the family from the Tories."
5) 'LIFE SHOULD MEAN LIFE'
Theresa May continues her campaign to look tough on crime, win over the police and play to the Tory 'hang 'em/flog 'em' brigade.
"Theresa May, the Home Secretary, says police killers should face minimum whole-life jail terms under proposals to be unveiled in front of thousands of rank-and-file police officers on Wednesday.
"The current starting point for anyone convicted of the murder of a police officer in the line of duty is 30 years.
"But the Government is to propose that this should be increased to a life sentence without parole, Theresa May will tell the Police Federation annual conference."
Personally, I'd like to see life mean life for all cold-blooded killers; I've never quite understood why cop killers should be seen as a special category of criminals.
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this vertigo-inducing video taken from the One World Trade Center spire as it was lifted onto the top of the skyscraper.
6) OUR CANNIBAL FRIENDS
So, do we still want to arm those Syrian rebels? From the Huffington Post UK:
"Gruesome footage that has appeared online seems to show a [rebel commander] cutting open a dead body and removing organs.
"He then appears to take a bite out of the heart, before saying: 'I swear to God we will eat your hearts and your livers, you soldiers of Bashar (President Assad) the dog.' There was a sectarian element to the atrocity, with the figure encouraging similar attacks on other Alawites - the minority ruling group in Syria."
With friends like these...
7) THE BIG SQUEEZE
Guess what? Austerity doesn't just lead to slow growth but greater inequality. Who knew, eh?
"The OECD has warned that Britain faces rising levels of inequality by pursuing austerity polices that are widening the gulf between rich and poor.
"In a report examining the developed world's response to the global slowdown, the thinktank warns that the 'financial crisis is squeezing income and putting pressure on inequality and poverty' across the board.
"It says that income inequality in the UK 'remained pretty steady' between 1995 and 2007 but jumped during the first three years of the recession.
"'The concern is inequality will rise much more once the full impact of public spending cuts is felt,' said Michael Förster, senior analyst at the OECD social policy division."
Meanwhile, UK austerians will ignore the OECD research and instead point with glee at the fact that France, the second-biggest economy in the eurozone, has today fallen into recession, after contracting by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year.
8) LABOUR'S MONEY TROUBLES
Do you want to know how badly the Labour Party needs trade union cash? From the Times:
"Labour is facing a new financial crisis after it emerged that the party depends on a massive overdraft from the troubled Co-operative Bank.
"The party relies on a £3.9 million lifeline from the ailing lender, which could be cut as part of the overhaul or sale of the bank.
"The party has been kept afloat by a series of overdrafts on unusually generous terms from the bank, which has strong links to the party dating back to 1927."
"Six months after his triumphant reelection, 'second term-itis' has struck President Obama, beset by simultaneous scandals that could scotch his already slender hopes of driving major new legislation through Congress... the administration is suddenly on the defensive on three fronts: its handling of the aftermath of the Benghazi attack last September, the targeting by US tax authorities of conservative political groups, and now the seizure by the Justice Department of phone records for reporters at the Associated Press, in its pursuit of a leak about a failed al-Qa'ida plot last year.
"... The IRS affair however may have the greatest ramifications, and certainly strikes the darkest historical chords. With its examination of the tax-exempt status of Tea Partyaligned and other right-wing political groups, the IRS has brought back memories of the Nixon White House and its use of the tax authorities to hound political opponents - except that this time the roles are reversed, with conservatives the target. In Monday's press conference with David Cameron, Mr Obama described the IRS' behaviour... as 'outrageous'."
"Star Wars fanatics could soon be Skywalking up the aisle — to legally marry as Jedis.
"Backbenchers will use the proposed shake-up in gay marriage laws to push for humanist ceremonies to be made legal in England.
"This could allow pagans, spiritualists and followers of the Jedi 'faith' to be allowed to wed."
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From the Sun/YouGov poll:
Labour 40
Conservatives 30
Ukip 15
Lib Dems 10
That would give Labour a majority of 110.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@tom_watson Surprised not "very, very, very, very" RT @BBCNormanS: Grant Shapps says "we are very,very relaxed" about tmrrw's EU referendum vote
@Mike_Fabricant The interesting test now will be whether Labour try actively to block the EU Referendum Bill.........
@ChukaUmunna The PM is in the farcical position of going around the US promoting an EU/US trade agreement whilst having quickened our exit from the EU
900 WORDS OR MORE
Dominic Sandbrook, writing in the Daily Mail, says: "Floundering in a European mire of his own making, I fear Dave's turning into John Major."
Seumas Milne, writing in the Guardian, says: "A Tory-led exit from Europe would unleash a carnival of reaction."
Daniel Finkelstein, writing in the Times, says: "Politicians will be pressed to say which of their promises are non-negotiable in the event of another coalition."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: Tory Civil War Over Europe. Part 774.tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-12T03:54:28-04:002013-05-12T05:04:18-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The five things you need to know on Sunday 12 May 2013...
1) TORY CIVIL WAR OVER EUROPE. PART 774.
Question: Which of these two Sunday newspaper splash headlines could have been penned anytime between 1992 and 1997?
"Tory civil war erupts over Europe vote" (Sunday Times)
We seem to have gone back in time. The Tories, ignoring their leader's famous pronouncement in opposition that the party needs to stop "banging on about Europe", are now doing precisely that. And it could do as much damage to their electoral prospects in the second decade of the 21st century as it did in the last decade of the 20th century.
The Sunday Telegraph reports that the prime minister has "risked a Cabinet revolt over a European referendum":
"Downing Street said it would tell ministers to abstain this week from a key vote that effectively calls for Mr Cameron's pledge to have an in/out referendum on Europe in 2017 to be put into law.
"Eurosceptic MPs are planning a vote that will 'express regret' that the Queen's Speech did not contain a "paving Bill" for a referendum — an absence that has prompted fury among Tory backbenchers.
"Downing Street said yesterday that ministers would be expected to abstain from the vote — creating the almost unprecedented situation where members of the Government would not vote in support of the Queen's Speech... If any of the approximately 100 ministers and parliamentary private secretaries (PPEs) were to vote for the motion, it would be a huge embarrassment to Mr Cameron."
"Two parliamentary private secretaries to the Eurosceptic cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Owen Paterson said they were ready to support an unprecedented revolt by the government’s own MPs against its legislative programme."
Gove, speaking to James Landale on the BBC's Marr programme this morning, admitted he wasn't "happy" with the current UK relationship with Europe and revealed - drum roll! - that if a referendum were held today he would indeed vote to quit the EU. He said, however, that he'd be abstaining on the Queen's Speech amendment vote later this week, describing it as "an exercise in letting off steam" by Eurosceptic Tory backbenchers.
Back in the Sunday Times, Chris Grayling has added to "the febrile atmosphere over Europe by hinting that he could contemplate Britain leaving the EU":
"In an interview with The Sunday Times, Chris Grayling, the justice secretary, describes himself as 'firmly on the Eurosceptic wing' of the Tory party... He claims Britain 'cannot and should not continue without a change to its current relationship with the European Union... What you don't do is admit defeat before you've started, so I have not got to the point of saying what I would do in that event,' he said."
He'll have plenty of support on the backbenches - especially from newly-unsuspended Tory MP Nadine Dorries, who uses a column in the Sun on Sunday to say "Tories must dump Clegg and get into bed with UKIP". Let's see how long she keeps the whip this time...
2) ET TU VINCE?
Sticking with Europe, it isn't just the Tories who are at odds on this issue. Earlier this week, after Nigel Lawson issued his call to arms in the Times and said he'd be voting for withdrawal in 2017, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg said such a move would cost Britain 3m jobs. His Lib Dem colleague, the business secretary Vince Cable, disagrees - in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph:
"I think that is putting it in too extreme a way. It is certainly true that there are, I think, roughly three million people whose jobs depend on trade with the European Union. I mean, to say that all of those people would be put out of work would be putting it in an extreme and unreasonable way."
Ouch. And Clegg should also be worried about Cable's continuing interest in the Lib Dem leadership:
"What about the top job in his own party? Again, he is quite happy to leave the option open. 'The party's wish, and his wish, is that [Nick Clegg] should continue as leader and nobody's questioning that. I don't have an ambition.'
"He points out that he has already filled the post, on a temporary basis in 2007 after the resignation of Sir Menzies Campbell (at the age of 66), and continues: 'I've said that if the necessity arose then it's something I would consider.'"
"Former Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif is celebrating with his supporters, amid early signs that his party will be the largest after parliamentary elections.
"Media projections based on partial results suggest a big lead for Mr Sharif's Muslim League, and he has already claimed victory.
"The election should lead to the country's first transition from one elected government to another."
I guess it's not all bad news - Imran Khan's party is predicted to be the second-biggest in parliament and the former cricket captain and anti-corruption campaigner therefore could end up as leader of the opposition and use that position to try and keep Sharif honest.
It's a remarkable comeback for the former PM - hated in some sections of Pakistan, long accused of corruption and mismanagement of the Pakistani economy and once seen in western circles as a friend of Islamist extremists - who was toppled by General Musharraf in a military coup in 1999.
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this video of a pug puppy being dried off with a hairdryer. You know you want to.
"Ten days ago Stephanie Bottrill sat in the redbrick terrace house which had been home for 18 years to write notes to her loved ones, the Sunday People reports .
"She ripped the pages from a spiral-bound notebook and placed them neatly in little brown envelopes.
"... Then in the early hours of last Saturday Stephanie, 53, left her home for the last time... And at 6.15am she walked straight into the path of a northbound lorry and was killed instantly. Stephanie Bottrill had become the first known suicide victim of the hated Bedroom Tax.
"In the letter to her son, Steven, 27, she had written: 'Don’t blame yourself for me ending my life. The only people to blame are the Government.'
"Stephanie was tormented over having to find £20 a week to pay for the two under-occupied bedrooms she had been assessed for.
"Days before her death she told neighbours: 'I can’t afford to live any more.'"
"The prime minister's adviser on enterprise has told the cabinet that the economic downturn is an excellent time for new businesses to boost profits and grow because labour is cheap, the Observer can reveal.
"Lord Young, a cabinet minister under the late Baroness Thatcher, who is the only aide with his own office in Downing Street, told ministers that the low wage levels in a recession made larger financial returns easier to achieve... Young, who has already been forced to resign from his position once before for downplaying the impact of the recession on people, writes: 'The rise in the number of businesses in recent years shows that a recession can be an excellent time to start a business... Factors of production such as premises and labour can be cheaper and higher quality, meaning that return on investment can be greater.'"
The paper reminds us that "Young was forced to quit just months into the government in 2010, after he was overwhelmed by condemnation of his claim that voters had never had it so good during the 'so-called recession' due to low interest rates... but was quietly reappointed 11 months later."
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From the Sunday Times/YouGov poll:
Labour 39
Conservatives 30
Ukip 16
Lib Dems 9
That would give Labour a majority of 96.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@paulwaugh Gove confirms he'll abstain on EU ref amendment to QSpeech. But more imp, says if referendum held now, he'd vote to quit EU #notveryDave
@campbellclaret Gove still more a leader writer than a politician. But he packed a lot of news in there. Smashed Clegg-Cable. Ramped up out of EU drive
@WilliamsJon US official: "18 months ago, could have armed rebels & exerted some control. Now every option is horrible."
900 WORDS OR MORE
Andrew Rawnsley, writing in the Observer, says: "As David Cameron and Ed Miliband move away from the centre, they leave a space for Nick Clegg."
Matthew D'Ancona, writing in the Sunday Telegraph, says: "An EU referendum is the political mouse that roared."
John Rentoul, writing in the Independent on Sunday, says: "The next election may be a contest to see who is more determined to lose."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: Cracks In The Coalitiontag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-09T19:30:37-04:002013-05-10T03:13:43-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The ten things you need to know on Friday 10 May 2013...
1) CRACKS IN THE COALITION
48 hours after the Queen's Speech, how coalitious is the coalition? Not very, is the answer, according to a story on the front of today's Guardian:
"[T]he coalition has come to blows over key policies with No 10 accusing Nick Clegg of shamelessly reneging on agreed childcare reforms, and the Liberal Democrats countering that Tory MPs were being given licence by David Cameron to vote against government policy on Europe.
"... Faced by massive opposition from preschool lobby groups, Clegg said he was now opposed to previously agreed plans to relax staff-to-child ratios in nurseries.
"...hours later Cameron, dogged by the issue of a European referendum for the fourth day in a row, also shifted ground when he found himself outmanoeuvred by his Eurosceptic rebels. In a rare move, heavyweight Tory backbenchers tabled an amendment to acceptance of the Queen's speech, regretting the lack of a bill in the speech paving the way for an EU referendum. The amendment will be voted on next Tuesday."
Not only has Downing Street suggested that Tory minister will be given a free vote next week but the Sun reports that Cameron "is ready to vote against his OWN Queen’s Speech over the issue of an EU referendum.
"Downing Street figures last night revealed the PM will join Tory Euro rebels in a planned protest vote next week."
A Number 10 source tells the paper: “The PM is determined to make as many people as possible aware how keen he is to hold this referendum."
Meanwhile, Dave's rival Boris has been on the Today programme and, after backing Dave ("the prime minister is clearly right... we need a renegtiation") he added: "We should be prepared to pull out...you can't go into a rengation like that without being wllling to walk away... The econmic benefits an disbeneits are much more balanced."
And finally, Dave's old boss, the ex-Tory chancellor Norman Lamont, also suggested yesterday that the UK would be better off out of the EU, saying the economic advantages of membership were "vastly over-stated".
"Iain Duncan Smith has been rebuked for falsely claiming the coalition's controversial benefits cap had already caused 8,000 people to move into jobs.
"The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) has written to the work and pensions secretary to tell him the claim was 'unsupported by the official statistics'.
"... It is not the first time a senior government minister has been rebuked for mis-representing statistics. In February David Cameron was reprimanded by Dilnot for falsely claiming Britain was 'paying down Britain's debts'."
So, the big question is: do coalition ministers have a problem with maths or with the truth?
3) DAVE GOES TO MOSCOW
The prime minister is due to meet the Russian president Vladimir Putin at his residence in Sochi today, before heading to meet Barack Obama in Washington DC on Monday. Can Dave get Vlad to withdraw Russian support for the blood-stained Bashar al Assad regime in Syria? The road to peace in Damascus runs through Moscow.
"Mr Cameron is rightly concerned that, unless Moscow can be persuaded to back the West's plans to arrange a ceasefire, the conflict risks spiralling out of control."
SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT: I'll be interviewing legendary New York Times columnist and Pulitzer-prize-winning author Tom Friedman at the Oxford Union tonight for my forthcoming Al Jazeera English interview series, 'Head To Head'. We'll be debating whether US foreign policy is a force for good and if you'd like to join the audience and/or ask a question, email debates@aljazeera.net. The recording of the show kicks off at 8pm.
4) TAXING TIMES
Watch out millionaires and billionaires: tax avoidance is now a big issue on sections of the right, not just the left. The Mail splashes this morning with the headline: "Net closes on tax dodgers". The paper reports:
"Hundreds of ultra-wealthy Britons are being investigated for tax evasion following exposure of their secret offshore accounts.
"International spy agencies are thought to have helped obtain a 'goldmine' of data that names high-profile multi-millionaires and their financial advisers.
"The files show how the rich have hidden billions in Singapore, the British Virgin Islands and the Caymans. More than 100 individuals have been identified so far - and have already been sent warning letters by HM Revenue & Customs.
"'You're talking about super-rich people,' said one source, who added that many of the names on the list were well known."
The paper adds:
"Last night George Osborne warned: 'The message is simple: if you evade tax we're coming after you. This data is another weapon in HMRC's arsenal.' The Chancellor said he was shocked by the extent to which the wealthy were exploiting tax loopholes."
Given Gideon and his fellow cabinet ministers have themselves been accused of engaging in tax avoidance, I'm not sure why the chancellor is so "shocked"...
5) MR GOVE VS MR MEN
From the Times front page:
"There is a Mr Nosey, Mr Tickle and Mr Bump; there is even a Mr Fussy, although he might now wish to reconsider his moustache.
"Never has it been suggested that a Mr Master Race should join the happy pages of the Mr Men, but Michael Gove claimed yesterday that history teachers are being encouraged to use Roger Hargreaves's best-known creation to help pupils to study Hitler. Rigorous history lessons are being squeezed out by a play-based approach to learning in many schools, the Education Secretary said.
"He mocked teaching materials that suggested teenagers watch episodes of the colourful children's favourites to frame a discussion about key personalities of the Third Reich. Other lesson plans for primary school teachers suggested comparing King John with characters from Disney films such as Robin Hood and Finding Nemo, he said."
My colleague Lucy Sheriff reports that Gove also "incurred the wrath of an army of angry Twilight fans after rubbishing Stephenie Meyer's hit series, saying he'd rather his children read Middlemarch.
"In a speech at Brighton College on Thursday, the education secretary told his audience: 'Too many children are only too happy to lose themselves in Stephenie Meyer.'
"'There is a Great Tradition of English Literature, a Canon of transcendent works, & Breaking Dawn is not part of it,' he continued."
The former journalist knows how to get headlines...
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this comical video of an epic bagpipe malfunction at - where else? - a Scottish wedding.
"Lady Shirley Williams said fellow Liberal Democrat peer Lord Rennard, who is currently being investigated for allegations of sexual harassment, is 'absolutely selfless' and at worst guilty of 'misbehaving'.
"In an interview with parliamentary magazine The House, the Liberal Democrat grandee also said women would expect 'people to take advantage of you' when she entered politics in the 1960s.
"The allegations concerning Lord Rennard, one-time chief executive of the party, came to light in a Channel 4 news report earlier this year. He denies any wrongdoing."
"MPs have urged the government to press ahead with a third runway at Heathrow and said a fourth should be considered, dismissing calls for a new airport east of London.
"The transport select committee said expansion at Britain's largest airport was 'long overdue' and vital if the UK was to maintain its status as a major international aviation hub."
"Most of the 25 bishops who sit in the House of Lords should lose their seats because they play 'gesture politics' but do not bother to vote, a senior MP proposes today.
"Writing in The Independent, the former Welfare Reform minister Frank Field says the bishops are wasting their second chamber places, which should be handed to people representing groups such as trade unions, employers, the arts, the law, women and children.
"He appealed to Justin Welby, the Archbishop of Canterbury, to bring in a Bill to implement the change."
"The launch of a new plan to address the crisis in accident and emergency units was marred yesterday as leaked emails revealed panic among health officials about how much money could be made available to help struggling hospitals.
"'Urgent care boards' are to be established across England with a remit to devise 'local recovery and improvement plans' for each A&E department in their area, in response to growing concern about lengthening waiting times. However, internal NHS England messages suggest that the Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, had wanted to announce a £300m-£400m rescue fund to "solve" problems in A&E, but had to be dissuaded owing to confusion about finances. The plan announced yesterday made no mention of a £400m pot, and last night the Department of Health denied that the Health Secretary ever intended to announce such funding."
"A survey conducted by YouGov to mark the release of the latest [Star Trek] instalment, Into Darkness, has found that Lib Dem voters are HUGE Trekkies.
"When asked if they preferred the escapades of captain Kirk and commander Spock or Luke Skywalker and Han Solo, 64% opted for Star Trek and 36% chose Star Wars."
"Tory voters also preferred Star Trek (53%) more than Star Wars (47%). Presumably this includes John Redwood, infamously described as 'half human, half Vulcan, brother of the brilliant, cold-blooded Spock'.
"With two years to go until the general election Labour voters are hoping the force is strong with Ed Miliband. As they are more into Death Stars and lightsabers than the USS Enterprise and phasers, preferring Star Wars (57%) to Star Trek (43%).
"Ukip supporters were evenly split in preference for either sci-fi universe - although it seems likely the eurosceptics would not be huge fans of Earth being part of Star Trek's European Union-style United Federation of Planets."
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From the Sun/YouGov poll:
Labour 39
Conservatives 30
Ukip 14
Lib Dems 10
That would give Labour a majority of 96.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@DouglasCarswell Are there any ex Chancellors out there who still believe we should remain a member of the European Union? Other than Gordon Brown, that is?
@iainmartin1 Were the members of transport select committee denied access to a map in their deliberations? *Four* new runways at Heathrow? Nuts
@sturdyAlex The more you beat it, the more rotten lies fall out of the rancid piñata that is Iain Duncan Smith's welfare policy.
900 WORDS OR MORE
Polly Toynbee, writing in the Guardian, says: "Labour must stand firm: no to a referendum on Europe."
Philip Collins, writing in the Times, says: "Despite the cynics, don’t give up on politics."
Jesse Norman, writing in the Times, says: "Edmund Burke – the great conservative who foresaw the discontents of our era."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: A Modest Speech From Her Majestytag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-07T18:45:54-04:002013-05-08T03:18:45-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The ten things you need to know on Wednesday 8 May 2013...
1) A MODEST SPEECH FROM HER MAJESTY
From the Times:
"The Queen will open a new session of Parliament by announcing a comparatively modest legislative agenda after Downing Street pared back its proposed list of Bills.
"Amid complaints from Tory MPs that the Government is failing to address the interests of core voters, plans for minimum alcohol pricing and plain cigarette packets have been junked.
"Plans to set up a register of lobbyists and to give voters the power to recall their MPs have also been shelved. Mr Cameron's promise to enshrine in law spending on overseas aid at the international target of 0.7 per cent of national output is being quietly killed."
But the paper adds that the PM and his Lib Dem deputy "will dismiss questions about whether the Coalition has run out of steam with two years to go until a general election.
"In a joint statement today, they will insist: 'Our resolve to turn our country around has never been stronger.' The Queen's Speech is about 'backing people who work hard and want to get on in life', they will say."
The Telegraph reports that the Queen's speech "is expected to contain more than a dozen parliamentary Bills. Measures to reform the state pension, cap the costs of long–term care, rehabilitate criminals and reduce regulations on business will be outlined. A National Insurance Contributions Bill will cut the cost of the tax for smaller firms taking on employees, and a Consumer Rights Bill will improve the rights of online shoppers."
We'll also see lots of new measures to crack down on immigrants and immigration - from limiting the ability of EU migrants to claim benefits, charging temporar migrants for using the NHS, restricting new immigrants' rights to social housing, making it easier to deport foreign criminals and, according to the Telegraph, making private landlords "legally responsible for ensuring that they only let properties to people allowed to be in Britain".
The Mirror - rightly - calls this the "PM's swing to the right".
The big question, however, is: what specific and credible measures will the Queen unveil this morning, at 11.30, that will help stimulate demand and kickstart growth in a flatlining UK economy?
2) LORD LAWSON'S ARMY
The Times follows up on yesterday's Nigel Lawson/withdraw-from-the-EU splash:
"Voters and Tory MPs warned David Cameron that he must scale back Britain's relationship with the European Union to little more than free trade or risk losing a referendum."
"... Forty two per cent of voters said that they wanted a relationship based on free trade and little else while 21 per cent called for British withdrawal, according to the YouGov poll for The Times.
"If there was an in-out referendum tomorrow, 46 per cent said they would vote to quit the EU against 35 per cent who would vote to stay in."
I guess the only response to this is to point out that there isn't going to be such a referendum "tomorrow". It's still four years away and there will be a referendum campaign in which the 'Ins" will have the time and space to make the case for EU membership against the "Outs". (If you want a good summary of who's on on the Lawson/Out side, my colleague Ned Simons has put together a picture gallery here.)
Meanwhile, the Times also reports that "there are now at least five positions adopted by Tory MPs towards the EU and a referendum — leave now, as advocated by Lord Lawson; legislate now to guarantee in law a 2017 in-out referendum, championed by MP John Baron and backed by more than 100 Tory MPs; hold a 'mandate' referendum next Spring to empower Mr Cameron's negotiating hand, promoted by David Davis; stage an EU referendum on the same day as the May 2015 general election, supported by Sarah Woolaston; and Mr Cameron's negotiate now, vote later approach."
"George Osborne's austerity programme faces a major challenge today when a team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrives in Britain to conduct its annual 'health check' on the economy.
"Treasury officials will defend the Chancellor's Plan A. But there is growing concern among ministers that the IMF will make its most explicit call for the spending cuts to be slowed at the end of its two-week visit. Mr Osborne would almost certainly reject such a verdict and plough on with Plan A. But, as the global consensus appears to turn against austerity, he might be left looking increasingly isolated."
The paper also reports on a new study from the TUC which reveals that "Britain's recovery is slower than 23 of the 33 advanced economies monitored by the IMF, suggesting the UK is trailing in the 'global race' trumpeted by David Cameron. It found that income per head will not return to pre-crash levels until 2017. In contrast, in the United States and Germany, income per head will be more than 10 per cent higher a decade after the financial crisis."
Meanwhile, former shadow cabinet minister and Ed Miliband ally Peter Hain has, according to the Guardian, "urged the shadow Treasury team to do more to make Labour's case for growth in the aftermath of the local elections.
"Hain, writing for Progress Online, suggests he would like the party to be less equivocal about its economic policy and warns that if the party is to win an outright majority at the general election it will need to be performing electorally better than at present."
Hain writes: "We cannot afford to be equivocal about our economic policy. We need to be more upfront with the public about our intentions. Yes, we will borrow more in the short-term, in order to generate growth that will reduce borrowing in the medium-term."
4) TURNER TURNS ON AUSTERITY
It isn't just the IMF. Another big figure from the world of economics and finance has come out against austerity. This time it's Adair Turner, former chair of the Financial Services Authority (FSA), in an interview with me for Al Jazeera English.
"Turner said 'we have been too certain that short-term austerity can produce a benefit. I think it's not true that short-term austerity produces a confidence effect.'
"... In what will be seen as a critique of the chancellor George Osborne's fiscal policies, the former regulator said: "I think the difficulty is that when the public debt levels go up in the crisis you feel you've got to get that under control.. but if you try and get it under control quickly, by cutting public expenditure or increasing taxes in the short term, you can enter a cycle where the very process of trying to get your debt levels down mean you never get the debt levels down."
Turner also told me that, ideally, the banks should have been nationalised, rather than simply bailed out, in 2008 and expressed concerns that there could be another financial crash 'in 10 or 15 years'."
5) 'WHO MADE THE POOREST POORER?' HMM...
Remember when David Cameron, in his final conference speech as leader of the opposition in October 2009, got all angry and red-faced and asked (to rapturous applause from Tory members in the hall): "Who made the poorest poorer?... Who made inequality greater? No, not the wicked Tories. You, Labour: you're the ones that did this to our society."
Well, perhaps the PM himself has forgotten that speech. And perhaps he should now take a look at the latest figures from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
"One in four children in Britain - 3.4 million - will be in relative poverty by 2020, the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned yesterday. In a report, conducted for the Northern Ireland executive but held to describe the position in the UK as a whole, the IFS says 'tax and benefit reforms introduced since April 2010 can account for almost all of the increases in child poverty projected over the next few years'.
"The shakeup will result in another 600,000 children falling into relative poverty during this parliament, with this figure rising by more than 1 million by 2020, the IFS says. The jump will result in Britain missing binding targets to reduce child poverty by 2020. The target was to reduce child poverty to one in 10, or fewer, of all children, or about 1.3 million."
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this video of how not to move a 400-tonne crane.
"Deputy Commons Speaker Nigel Evans has told of the support he has had from around the world after going through what he described as the 'worst two days of my life'.
"The Tory MP told reporters in Westminster he would be 'getting back on with the work I need to be doing as a constituency MP', and intended to resume his duties in the Speaker's chair once debate on the Queen's Speech is over.
"Mr Evans was arrested on Saturday and questioned by police over rape and sexual assault allegations which he says are 'completely false'.
"Speaker John Bercow has agreed that he should be excused from his duties chairing the Queen's Speech debate, which opens on Wednesday."
7) MOSCOW 'READY TO CO-OPERATE' ON SYRIA?
When will the Russians decide to call on their blood-stained client Bashar al Assad to step down for the good of his nation and his Alawite community?
"Russia and the United States announced late last night that they will convene a conference by the end of the month to bring together representatives of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the opposition and rebel groups fighting his regime.
"The decision was announced at a midnight press conference in Moscow between the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry, who claimed that 'we are here to say that we are ready to co-operate'."
The paper notes that Kerry, on his first trip to Russia as US Secretary of State, "was kept waiting for three hours by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin". Winning over the Russians won't be easy but the simple, unavoidable truth is this: the road to a non-military solution to the Syrian conflict runs through Moscow...
8) £2.7 BILLION
"Cuts? What cuts?" That's the sarcastic line often deployed by right-wingers who want to see more, not less, austerity and claim the level of fiscal consolidation so far has been mild. Well, tell that to the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services (Adass). From the Guardian:
"More older people and citizens with disabilities will be denied state-funded care support over the next two years as local authority finances continue to take a battering from funding cuts, social care chiefs have warned.
"The scale and severity of the financial squeeze is laid bare in a survey which shows that by April councils in England will have stripped out £2.7bn from adult social care services since 2010 - equivalent to 20% of their care budgets - even as demand for services continues to rise."
9) ACCOUNTANTS BACK TAX REFORM. OR MAYBE THEY DON'T.
Confused? I don't blame you. The Daily Mail reports:
"'Big Four' accountant Ernst & Young has backed measures to improve tax transparency... John Dixon, tax chief at E&Y, said big business had reached a 'tipping point' on tax and could only regain public trust by 'seizing the initiative'."
"Top tax advisers at Ernst & Young, auditors to Google, Amazon and Facebook, have held a high-level lobbying meeting at Number 10, urging the prime minister not to support calls for financial transparency measures which have been proposed by tax fairness campaigners.
"John Dixon, E&Y's head of tax in the UK, said he and the firm's global head of tax policy, Chris Sanger, had taken their lobbying message to Downing Street because 'it is not an issue that is going to go away and it is receiving a huge amount of interest at the highest level of our society'.
I guess the difference in reporting here is based on the difference between voluntary and compulsory tax reform - E&Y back the former, not the latter. Surprise, surprise!
I know which one I back...
10) THE QUEEN, THE GOAT AND THE UKIP THREAT
And finally, the BBC's Nick Robinson explains on Twitter why the government can credibly claim that it isn't unveiling lots of anti-immigration measures this morning in response to the Ukip surge last Thursday:
"@bbcnickrobinson Goat is the reason Queen's Speech cannot be reaction to local elections. It's written on vellum. Ink takes 3 days to dry so written early!"
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From today's Sun/YouGov poll:
Labour 39
Conservatives 29
Ukip 16
Lib Dems 9
That would give Labour a majority of 110.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@ChukaUmunna Our Queen's Speech would include a Banking Bill that backs British business with a proper British Investment Bank and new regional banks
@gabyhinsliff Of all the events that felt v significant when I was a lobby hack but in real life nobody cares about, Queen's Speech tops the list
@Kevin_Maguire Gilbert & Sullivan day in Parliament. Frock coats, knee breeches and smell of ermine.Horse drawn carriage due 10.30ish #strewth
900 WORDS OR MORE
Mary Riddell, writing in the Telegraph, says: "For all his proficiency on the pallet, Ed Miliband still can’t speak human."
Ha-Joon Chang, writing in the Guardian, says: "Watch out, George Osborne: Smith, Marx and even the IMF are after you."
Daniel Finkelstein, writing in the Times, says: "Cameron needs a big-tent Conservatism."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: Let's Get Out Of Europe, Says Lawsontag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-07T01:30:59-04:002013-05-07T02:44:08-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The ten things you need to know on Tuesday 7 May 2013...
1) LET'S GET OUT OF EUROPE
Poor Dave. Last week, the Tories were trying to fend off the UK Independence Party surge in the county council elections and work out how to win back disaffected Europhobic voters from Ukip. This week, a former Conservative chancellor of the exchequer and one of the party's biggest of big beasts, Nigel Lawson, endorses the central plank and number one goal of the Ukip manifesto: withdrawal from the European Union.
Writing in today's Times, Lord Lawson does his best impression of Nigel Farage, describing the EU as “a bureaucratic monstrosity” and arguing that the economic gains from a British exit “would substantially outweigh the costs”. He concludes: “The case for exit is clear", adding: "That is why, while I voted 'in' in 1975, I shall be voting 'out' in 2017".
Times political editor Roland Watson is right to say that Lawson's intervention "will electrify a Tory party reeling from last week's surge from the Eurosceptic UKIP and is likely to change the dynamic of the party's inner wranglings over the EU".
It is also an undisguised attack on the prime minister's 'renegotiation' strategy - Thatcher's former chancellor says any new terms agreed by Cameron in 2017 (or, for that matter, Prime Minister Miliband) would be "inconsequential", adding that Harold Wilson's negotiated changes, ahead of the 1975 Common Market referendum, were "so trivial" that no one now remembers them.
So, if you were of the view that the Tory Party's civil war over Europe had ended with the election of David Cameron in 2005, think again. The splits are real, open and substantive. Cameron, if he is re-elected in 2015, will go into a 2017 EU referendum campaigning for the UK to stay in on 'renegotiated terms' - but up against not just Nigel Farage, Bill Cash and the swivel-eyed tendency but Lord Lawson, among others, too.
"A senior Conservative minister is prepared to speak to police after being told four years ago about an allegation of 'inappropriate sexual behaviour' involving Nigel Evans, the Deputy Speaker. Mr Evans was accused of making an unwanted advance on a man he had been drinking with in 2009. The incident is being investigated by Lancashire Police as an alleged sexual assault alongside a second allegation of rape.
"Mr Evans was interviewed by Patrick McLoughlin, the opposition chief whip at the time who is now Transport Secretary. However, the matter was not reported to police by either the Conservative Party or the complainant.
"... A spokesman for Mr McLoughlin yesterday said that he would 'cooperate in full' with any police inquiries."
Meanwhile, according to the Guardian, Evans has said he is "determined not to let these allegations destroy" him or his career. The paper reports:
"Speaking in Bolton-by-Bowland, near Clitheroe, where he lives, Evans said on Monday he was trying to keep his spirits up. 'What doesn't destroy you makes you stronger. I'm trying to make sure in my own mind that I'm on that side,' he said."
"... The MP also explained a mysterious mark on his forehead that was visible when he gave a statement on Sunday. The 'painful' bruise appeared on Thursday as he came to the end of a reiki massage in Chinatown, London."
3) CAMERON'S CHINA ASBO
I've been critical of the prime minister in the past for fawning over foreign dictators in an attempt to sell them weapons and other stuff, so I have to congratulate him for this report in the Telegraph:
"David Cameron has effectively been barred from visiting China because Beijing is so angry at the Prime Minister for meeting the Dalai Lama last year."
Good for Dave. Then again, it's not all good news:
"There are now fears that the frosty diplomatic relations could put at risk Chinese investment in Britain, which was worth £8billion last year.
"Chinese sources have made a veiled threat that for investment in the UK 'there needs to be a strong relationship'."
It's a difficult balancing act for western leaders - how do you stand up for human rights against a regime in control of one of the biggest, fastest-growing economies in the world?
4) DAVE VS NAD, ROUND 2
Nadine Dorries has the "whiphand" in her "battle of wills" with David Cameron and George Osborne, according to the Times. The rebellious backbencher, who lost the Conservative whip in November over her appearance on 'I'm A Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here', is being wooed by Ukip and could jump ship prior to the general election. However, the Times reports:
"Ms Dorries... is due to meet Sir George Young, the Tory Chief Whip, to hear if the party high command is ready to bring her back into the fold.
"However, she is expected to refuse any demands to bind her into uncritical silence concerning the Government. This is buoyed in part by the existence of a little-known party rule that means the Prime Minister does not have the final say as to whether she can stand for the Tories in 2015... The rule gives MPs the right to trigger an appeals tribunal if they are without the whip within six months of a general election."
Bad luck, Dave...
5) UKIP'S 25% GLASS CEILING
Some of us have been arguing that Ukip's strong showing in the local elections last week won't result in the party winning any Commons seats come 2015. But what if we're wrong? From the Telegraph:
One in four voters have to back United Kingdom Independence Party at the 2015 general election to see just one MP elected, new research says.
The study from respected forecasters Electoral Calculus sets out the scale of the challenge facing Nigel Farage to cement the gains made by his party at last week’s local elections.
It said: “We see that UKIP only gets its first few MPs at 24 per cent. Even when it is the most popular single party, it can still win fewer seats than Labour.”
The odds of Ukip winning one in four of all votes cast in the next general election, however, are less than tiny. Lest we forget, Ukip won 17% of the vote in the June 2009 Euro elections only to win just 3% of the vote in the May 2010 general election, less than a year later.
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this video of pit bull who really wants this stick.
"North Korea has stood down its military forces and moved from their launch positions two medium range missiles, marking the end of six weeks of sustained tension with South Korea and the United States."
Phew.
7) NOT-SO-UNIVERSAL CREDIT
Another blow for IDS. From the i newspaper:
"The vast majority of families will gain nothing from the introduction of the Universal Credit, the Government's flagship welfare reform scheme, a report claims today.
"A trial of the payment, which replaces six benefits and tax credits, began this month ahead of its introduction nationwide.
"In a joint report, the TUC and Child Poverty Action Group said nine out of 10 families will gain nothing from the new system, with any gains wiped out by benefits cuts. They claimed that disabled claimants in low-paid jobs could lose as much as £2,800 a year."
8) WEAPONS OF MASS DECEPTION
So, have chemical weapons been used in Syria? And if so, have they been used by Bashar al Assad or by the rebels? Or, perhaps, by both sides? The Sun sums it up:
'War crime investigators have failed to decide if chemical weapons have been used in Syria.
"The UN team has so far found no evidence damning either side in the conflict.
"Its admission yesterday came just a day after investigator Carla Del Ponte suggested rebels had used nerve gas sarin.
"Both rebels and President Bashar al-Assad's government accuse each other of chemical attacks."
As I noted on Twitter yesterday, Del Ponte's claims re the rebels and sarin were met with curious (hypocritical?) radio silence from western capitals. I guess it's kind of hard for the likes of William Hague and John Kerry to advocate arming the rebels if those rebels have, um, er, already armed themselves with WMDs...
9) REMEMBER SOMALIA?
It isn't just in Syria that the west's arms embargo is under pressure - from the Telegraph:
"The United Nations should lift its arms embargo on Somalia, and Britain should mobilise funds for a new national army that can defeat al–Qaeda, the country's defence minister said yesterday.
"On the eve of a conference in London designed to build support for Somalia's official government, Abdulhakim Haji Faqi told The Daily Telegraph that an arms embargo first imposed in 1992 should now be abandoned.
"'To live peacefully within ourselves, we need our military to be equipped properly – and that is why we need completely to lift the arms embargo,' he said."
10) STRIKE, STRIKE, STRIKE
Waiting for a letter? You may have to wait a bit longer. From the Telegraph:
"Homes and businesses are to be hit with delays to parcels and letters following the long weekend as Post Office workers go on strike today in a row over jobs, pay and branch closures.
Members of the Communication Workers Union at hundreds of Crown offices will walk out for the day, the fourth round of industrial action in recent weeks.
The union is opposed to plans to franchise 70 branches and close others, saying jobs will be affected. The CWU also said its members have not received a wage rise for more than two years."
This isn't just a protest by unreconstructed trade union lefties. The Times notes that "opposition to the closure and transfer of business of a fifth of the largest so-called Crown offices of the Post Office is gathering momentum. MPs such as Amber Rudd, George Osborne's personal private secretary, and the Labour veteran Peter Hain are among those running local campaigns against the Post Office plans, while 4,000 counter staff are to embark on a fourth day of strikes today."
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@SJacksonMP Lord Lawson's argument in favour of leaving the EU is a huge moment in the march of Tory Euroscepticism
@sandsstandard Can't write off Lord Lawson as a little Englander. Lives half time in France. But by intellectual temperament a sceptic, climate, Europe.
@ianbirrell Blimey! Guantanamo costs $1m per prisoner per year (as well as being grotesquely unjust)
900 WORDS OR MORE
Rachel Sylvester, writing in the Times, says: "Governments manage change. UKIP fears it."
Benedict Brogan, writing in the Telegraph, says: "David Cameron has two years left to summon up the spirit of 1992."
George Monbiot, writing in the Guardian, says: "Why the politics of envy are keenest among the very rich."
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Mehdi's Morning Memo: Deputy Speaker Stands Aside. For Now.tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-06T03:46:03-04:002013-05-06T05:47:38-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/The five things you need to know on (bank holiday) Monday 6 May 2013...
"Nigel Evans is to stand aside on a temporary basis as deputy speaker of the House of Commons as he fights 'completely false' allegations that he raped one man and sexually assaulted another.
Amid signs that the Commons Speaker John Bercow feared that he could inadvertently overshadow the Queen's speech on Wednesday, when the government's legislative programme is unveiled, it was agreed that the deputy speaker would be excused his duties on a temporary basis."
Meanwhile, the Telegraph reports that Evans was "interviewed by senior Conservatives four years ago about an allegation of 'inappropriate sexual behaviour'":
"The Tory MP, who was arrested over the weekend on suspicion of rape and sexual assault, was accused of making an unwanted advance on a man he had been drinking with in 2009.
"He was interviewed by Patrick McLoughlin, the then opposition chief whip who is now Transport Secretary, but the matter was not reported to police by either the Conservatives or the complainant.
"According to a friend of Mr Evans, the MP explained to the whips that the matter was a 'misunderstanding'. The friend said there was no 'verbal warning' but Mr Evans may have received some 'friendly advice'."
"A Bill to curb migrants' rights and make it easier to deport foreign nationals will be at the heart of the Queen's Speech at the start of a new parliamentary session this week.
"Conservative ministers will trumpet the Immigration Bill as they try to reassure jittery Tory MPs worried about the success of the UK Independence Party in last week's local elections – and win back voters."
The Telegraph reports that the Queen's Speech will also include a bill to prevent "hundreds of thousands of people who live abroad and have never paid tax in this country" from continuing to claim UK state pensions worth up to £3,500 a year.
Over the weekend, plenty of commentators pointed out that the Tories' attempt to appease the Ukip minority won't work - and will leave Farage and co emboldened and demanding more. Tory high command, evidently, isn't listening. According to the Times, the prime minister is also under pressure to move on gay marriage and international aid:
"David Cameron has been told by his own MPs to junk the gay marriage Bill and cut overseas aid in an effort to halt the UKIP bandwagon.
"Tory MPs warned the Prime Minister that he must attend to the party’s 'home base' swiftly to prevent more core Conservatives deserting to Nigel Farage. Sir Gerald Howarth, the former Defence Minister, said that his constituents were 'fed up to the back teeth' with the government."
"The British government is negotiating payments to thousands of Kenyans who were detained and severely mistreated during the 1950s Mau Mau insurgency in what would be the first compensation settlement resulting from official crimes committed under imperial rule.
"In a development that could pave the way for many other claims from around the world, government lawyers embarked upon the historic talks after suffering a series of defeats in their attempts to prevent elderly survivors of the prison camps from seeking redress through the British courts.
"... In the case of the Mau Mau conflict, the secret papers showed that senior colonial officials authorised appalling abuses of inmates held at the prison camps established during the bloody conflict, and that ministers and officials in London were aware of a brutal detention regime in which men and women were tortured and killed.
The paper says "up to 10,000 former prisoners may be in line for compensation" which is "is likely to run into tens of millions of pounds".
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR...
Watch this video of a small dog trying to 'walk' a bigger dog... and not quite succeeding.
"The average price of a home in Britain could reach £300,000 by the end of 2015 because the Government's Help to Buy scheme risks inflating a new housing bubble.
"In a scathing attack on the Chancellor's plan, announced in the Budget, to get more people on to the housing ladder, a financial consultancy run by former Bank of England economists said that the scheme could push up prices by almost 30 per cent from the current average of £233,000.
"Fathom Consulting said that the fact that many people could not buy property was 'keeping a lid' on house price inflation.
"But the scheme, which will allow buyers to take a mortgage with a deposit of just 5 per cent, could change that if the supply of credit returns to levels seen prior to the financial crisis."
"An MP had to be given life-saving treatment after eating a cake that contained nuts.
"Doctors had to intervene after Jo Swinson, 33, who has nut allergies, suffered a severe allergic reaction and began struggling to breathe.
"Miss Swinson, parliamentary aide to Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, inadvertantly ate a piece of cake containing the ingredient while attending a Help for Heroes cake sale at a Guide hall in Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow on Saturday.
"She began to feel unwell and took an antihistamine, but around an hour later her condition worsened and she was taken to the Southern General Hospital in Glasgow with anaphylactic shock. Miss Swinson, Lib Dem MP for East Dunbartonshire, was kept in overnight for observation and returned to work yesterday."
PUBLIC OPINION WATCH
From yesterday's Sunday Times/YouGov poll:
Labour 40
Conservatives 30
Lib Dems 12
Ukip 11
That would give Labour a majority of 110.
140 CHARACTERS OR LESS
@StewartWood I agree with @grantshapps: it doesn't matter what school you went to. The problem is the PM's hiring policy suggests it matters a lot to him
@oflynnexpress If the euro dies what effect would it have in Britain? Could it help a party that said the euro would fail & should b broken up do ya think?
@Mike_Fabricant 18h
Half the male customers in Lichfield Waitrose are wearing shorts. #sunsout Now indulging myself with thick Federici Pistacchio ice cream.
900 WORDS OR MORE
Tim Montgomerie, writing in the Times, says: "UKIP is Cameron’s Frankenstein monster."
John Harris, writing in the Guardian, says: "If Boris Johnson is the answer to Ukip, Tories are asking the wrong question."
Kevin Maguire, writing in the Mirror, says: "Don’t get taken in by City boy Farage."
Plus, here's my column on Syria and whether or not we should arm the rebels: "If We Arm the Syrian Rebels, How Do We Stop British Bombs and Bullets Getting to Al Qaeda?"
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Mehdi Hasan (mehdi.hasan@huffingtonpost.com) or Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com). You can also follow us on Twitter: @mehdirhasan, @nedsimons and @huffpostukpol]]>Adair Turner, Former FSA Chair, Attacks Austerity And Warns Of Another Financial Crashtag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//2013-05-05T13:43:08-04:002013-05-08T02:01:02-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/austerity and expressed concerns that there could be another financial crash in the next "10 or 15 years".
Speaking to the Huffington Post UK's political director Mehdi Hasan, on the new Al Jazeera English interview series "Head To Head", Turner said "we have been too certain that short-term austerity can produce a benefit. I think it's not true that short-term austerity produces a confidence effect."
As chair of the FSA, Turner was barred from making overtly political statements but, now freed from these constraints, he has launched a pointed attack on austerity measures for the first time.
In what will be seen as a critique of the chancellor George Osborne's fiscal policies, the former regulator said: "I think the difficulty is that when the public debt levels go up in the crisis you feel you've got to get that under control.. but if you try and get it under control quickly, by cutting public expenditure or increasing taxes in the short term, you can enter a cycle where the very process of trying to get your debt levels down mean you never get the debt levels down."
Turner and Osborne attend a UK-China economic forum in London in September 2011
Echoing a view often expressed by Labour's shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, Turner favourably compared the high-growth stimulus record of the Obama administration in the United States with the low-growth austerity record across Europe. "If you look in the US up until now they haven't gone heavily down the austerity route and if you look at this year where this is a fiscal tightening going on.. we're now seeing some signs that that's slowing the US economy this year."
Turner said he was concerned about the national debt but wanted "a very balanced approach, which has a point of view of how we get public debt burdens under control over the medium term but is more cautious about short-term cuts and fiscal auterity than most countries have been so far."
He also repeated his call for "helicopter money", or "running increased public expenditure or tax cuts and paying for it not with money that the government borrows but with central bank-created money", referring to it as a "radical idea".
During his five-year tenure as head of the FSA, which was abolished by the government in April, Turner was one of the most influential financial policymakers in the world. He told Hasan that he had supported the 2008 bailout of the banks by the British government but would have preferred a full-scale nationalisation of RBS and HBOS. "I think we should ideally not have put money in, we should have nationalised them and wiped out the equity holders and, ideally, we should also have wiped out the subordinated debt holders."
A former banker himself, Turner said he was "worried" about the prospect of another banking sector crash "in 10 or 15 years". "We'll make the same mistakes again," he said. "I am concerned that we have not been radical enough in our reforms."
Turner, now a senior research fellow at the George Soros-funded Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), said he wanted to see "much less leveraged banks" and argued that directors of banks that fail should be "automatically banned" from working in the financial services industry again.
Mehdi Hasan's "Head To Head" interview series on Al Jazeera English will begin airing on 7 June. ]]>If We Arm the Syrian Rebels, How Do We Stop British Bombs and Bullets Getting to Al Qaeda?tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.32194012013-05-05T12:47:15-04:002013-05-05T14:23:58-04:00Mehdi Hasanhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/mehdi-hasan/
The popular uprising long ago morphed into an armed insurgency, backed by a motley alliance of the United States, Europe, Turkey, the Gulf states and... al-Qaeda. Syria, a secular state, has been engulfed in the flames of a vicious, sectarian civil war in which both sides want to kill their way to victory. Viable solutions of the diplomatic, non-violent variety are few and far between. "Syria poses the most complex set of issues that anyone could ever conceive," declared General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, in March.
The clamour for a military intervention in Syria is getting louder - especially following the (as yet unsubstantiated) chemical weapons claims. On the right, there's the US senator and Republican former presidential candidate John McCain, who, in recent years, hasn't come across a war he didn't want the US to fight. The Obama administration, McCain told NBC on 28 April, should arm the rebels, impose a no-fly zone and "be prepared with an international force to go in and secure these stocks of chemical and perhaps biological weapons".
On the left, there's the French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy, one of the driving forces behind Nato's 2011 war in Libya. In an interview with me for al-Jazeera English, which will be broadcast in June, he said "there is no question" that a military intervention in Syria, beginning with a no-fly zone, is "doable". When I asked him how he could be so confident, he shrugged: "Bashar al-Assad is weak... a paper tiger."
If only. Assad may be a loathsome dictator but that doesn't change a central fact: that he continues to command the support of a significant chunk of Syria's population (Alawites, Christians, some secular Sunnis). Nor does it change his air defences, which are far superior to those of Muammar al-Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein and Mullah Omar. Syria is believed to have up to 300 mobile surface-to-air missile systems and about 600 fixed missile sites. Oh, and did I mention the chemical weapons?
The experts are much more honest about the limits of military action than the Lévys and McCains of this world. Dempsey, America's top soldier, has said that he can't see a military option that would "create an understandable outcome". His opposite number in the UK, General Sir David Richards, the chief of the defence staff, has told ministers, "Even to set up a humanitarian safe area would be a major military operation," according to the Sunday Times of 28 April.
The reality is that even the best-intentioned humanitarian intervention could end up costing hundreds, if not thousands, of innocent lives. Those who flippantly claim that life couldn't get any worse for the Syrian people should be reminded of Algeria (ten years; 200,000 dead), Lebanon (15 years; 170,000 dead), the Democratic Republic of Congo (ongoing; five million dead) and Iraq (ongoing; 600,000 to a million dead).
Let's be clear: diplomacy, whether of the coercive or the non-coercive variety, isn't a panacea. So far sanctions haven't worked and the Russians continue to bat for Assad in the UN Security Council chamber.
But isn't it depressing to witness how the west's interventionists are always waiting for diplomacy to fail? Their targets - Slobodan Milosevic, the Taliban, Saddam, Gaddafi and now Assad - are always latter-day Hitlers: crazy, irrational, immune to political or diplomatic pressure. To negotiate is to appease.
It is a simplistic, Manichaean view of the world. Yet as the then leader of the Syrian opposition movement in exile, Moaz al-Khatib, acknowledged in September 2012: "Negotiation is not surrendering to the cruelty but it is choosing the lesser of two evils." (Al-Khatib has since been smeared by some of his fellow rebels - most of whom, admittedly, crave a western military intervention - as an Assad apologist. He has had to stand down as opposition leader.)
Listen to Haytham al-Manna, the anti-interventionist spokesman for the opposition National Co-ordination Committee, whose brother was killed by the Assad regime. "We must adhere to a negotiated political solution in this difficult phase so as to give every Syrian a chance to see the end of destruction," he wrote in the Guardian on 18 April.
"We cannot let the bloodbath go on like this," Lévy told me. However, there is little evidence to suggest that sending in our bombers or arming the rebels will ratchet down, rather than ratchet up, the violence. Remember: weapons are fungible. We have no way of preventing the al-Qaeda-affiliated members of the opposition from getting hold of bombs and bullets supplied by Britain and France. Nor does anyone have a credible plan of action for the day after Assad falls.
The west should be pouring water, not fuel, on the Syrian fire. Our ministers should be putting pressure on, and offering incentives to, Moscow to detach itself from Damascus; our diplomats should be trying to convince the Gulf states to rein in the rebels, especially those of the ultra-Islamist, hand-chopping variety; our lawyers should be threatening Assad and his underlings with International Criminal Court indictments.
It may be that none of these options works. But, a decade on from the US-led invasion of Iraq, the alternative - all-out war - is too dreadful to contemplate.
Mehdi Hasan is political director of the Huffington Post UK and a columnist for the New Statesman where this post also appears. His new al-Jazeera interview series, "Head to Head", will begin airing on 7 June]]>
