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  <title>Nake M. Kamrany</title>
  <link href="http://huffingtonpost.com/author/index.php?author=nake-m-kamrany"/>
  <updated>2013-06-19T15:22:11-04:00</updated>
  <author>
    <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
  </author>
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<entry>
    <title>Securing Peace in Afghanistan After US Withdrawal</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/afghanistan-us-withdrawal_b_3316935.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.3316935</id>
    <published>2013-05-22T17:04:06-04:00</published>
    <updated>2013-05-23T14:15:19-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[Afghans have resisted foreign troops from antiquity until the present at an enormous cost of lives and wealth. The current resistance is no exception. The critical question, especially for Afghans, to consider is the issue of peace and war following the withdrawal of foreign troops.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[<em>Co-authored by Haseena Qudrat and Michelle Kamrany</em><br />
<br />
The creation of nine U.S. military bases in post-war Afghanistan will prolong the war, costing more American blood and treasure, inviting jihadis in the Middle East and Asia to shoot at Americans, who will be sitting ducks, sustaining the onslaught of bombs and suicide youth, continuous plundering the the military bases  and adding to the burden of the U.S. budget deficit.  The better alternative is to provide development assistance and let the Afghans resolve their own situation.  After nearly 12 years, the U.S. war in Afghanistan may be winding down thanks to President Obama's decision to speed up the withdrawal of U.S. troops in the spring of this year instead of in the summer, saving American and Afghan lives and wealth. This 180-degree shift in policy augurs well for the arrival of peace in Afghanistan after being involved in various conflicts for 35 years. The expectation is that fighting will stop when foreign troops are gone and the flow of suicide bombers and explosives from Pakistan are halted. <br />
<br />
Afghans have resisted foreign troops from antiquity until the present at an enormous cost of lives and wealth. The current resistance is no exception. The critical question, especially for Afghans, to consider is the issue of peace and war following the withdrawal of foreign troops. <br />
<br />
1.  Will the central government be overthrown?  Recent history shows that nearly two years after the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, its Marxist client government was overthrown.  However, there are two factors that may obviate an overthrow.  First, the U.S. is attempting to get the Taliban to participate in a peace accord with the central government, encouraging the Taliban to participate through the political process in some form of a coalition government.  Secondly, the U.S. is busy equipping the central government's military force to reach 350,000 soldiers and is providing substantial training.  Two caveats are in order.  First, the Taliban have been reluctant to participate in the peace process with the central government and secondly, a Taliban shadow government is already in a dominant position with respect to most of the country's population and land area.  Besides, the Afghan military's loyalty is to their warlords rather than the central government, and it will disintegrate rather rapidly. Moreover, the emerging government may take punitive measures against those Afghans who are thought to have cooperated with the invaders unless a general amnesty is agreed upon. A condition of settlement mus be none use of force by all factions.<br />
<br />
A positive note on this issue is the message that the Taliban issued during the recent Paris peace conference on Afghanistan.  It stated that the Taliban believed that all Afghan factions (tribes, ethnicities, etc.) were entitled to legitimate participation in the government and that women will have the right to education and employment.  Under this axiom it is possible that the current Central government will be replaced readily, and a new government may emerge with minimal distortion. This might most likely be the outcome. There is no doubt that the emerging government will do away with corruption, warlords, drug lords, and impose special taxes on the 1 percent of the population who became rich by exploiting their government connections.<br />
<br />
2.  Is there a deep dissonance or discord between sectarian, linguistic, or ethnic groups of the population?  Recent history demonstrates that the population during the reign of former King Zahir Shah lived in relative peace for 40 years (1933-1973).  First of all, Afghanistan's population is nearly 100 percent Muslim.  Although there is a minority of Shia, the two sects have lived in peace for centuries. The only major difference among Afghans is language.  There are two prominent languages, Pashto and Farsi.  There are some frictions on this issue, but it is not serious, and in the city of Kabul most of the population is bilingual.  Although the ethnic Pashtun population is in the majority and have dominated the government since the 1700s, the other ethnic major groups are gaining relative political power.  In terms of per capita income, the country's northern region, made up of Uzbeks and Tajiks, tops the rest. In other words, there is no misdistribution of income, wealth, or land in Afghanistan. Therefore, peace and civility amongst the diverse ethnic groups could be a possibility as the country attempts to repair itself and prevail. <br />
<br />
3.  Another positive note for peaceful post-war Afghanistan is the population's war weariness.  It was in 1978 when the Marxist government overthrew the former established government of Afghanistan, and since then, some level of military conflict has endured, wreaking pervasive damage on the country and exacting a high toll in lives and wealth. Afghanistan needs peace to exploit its rich mineral resources, develop industries including food production, agriculture, tourism, construction, and infrastructure, and expand its already rapid growth of transportation and communication networks. Afghanistan's recent annual growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is very favorable. If these trends continue in the postwar period, Afghanistan's per capita income could converge with and even surpass that of some its neighbors. <br />
<br />
4.  On the positive side, inequality in distribution of wealth, land, and income in Afghanistan is not at the forefront of the ongoing conflict since landlordism is not present in Afghanistan.  Recent economic movement has created a dual economy as certain sectors have flourished  such as communication, transportation,  education, art, and entertainment have pulled ahead, while other sectors, most notably mineral resources and agri-business, are poised to catch up.  However, a small group of individuals who have exploited corruption has swindled millions of dollars out of the country and must be eventually held accountable and brought to justice.  <br />
<br />
5.  Drug trafficking dominates the Afghan black market economy as Afghanistan is the major   world poppy producer.  With so much profit to be made in drug trafficking, many government officials fall victim to temptation.  Afghans have rightfully lost faith in their government and crime goes largely unreported, which only provides more incentives and opportunities for criminals who have little fear of being caught.   The entire approach of controlling poppy production needs to be revised by the Afghan authorities in favor of alternative crops.  It can be done and could be profitable for Afghan farmers.  <br />
<br />
6.  There has been a major gap between donors' aid promises and disbursement as espoused in several international donor meetings. Aid has not been channeled through the Afghan system and has not had an appreciable impact upon economic development. There is a need to overhaul the approach, and the Afghans must be given the opportunity to be in the driver's seat.  <br />
<br />
7.  The Afghan government's takeover of the entire security apparatus must be realistic and geared to fiscal sustainability with regard to the Afghan budget.  The current contemplated security force of 350,000 soldiers is unrealistic and burdensome relative to Afghanistan's fiscal capacity and security requirements. A more sustainable level may be approximately 100,000 soldiers.<br />
<br />
8.  On January 12, 2013, during Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai's visit to the White House, President Obama was noncommittal on the number of US soldiers that would be left behind in Afghanistan, i.e., the post-2014 U.S. role in Afghanistan.  In view of the fact that there is absolutely no al-Qa'ida influence left in Afghanistan, there is no need for any U.S. military contingent in Afghanistan after 2014.  If anything, the U.S., along with the other 27 NATO nations, could provide economic assistance for rebuilding the country.  <br />
<br />
9.  Regardless of what happens to the U.S. role after 2014, there is indeed a deluge of uncertainty among Afghans. Those Afghans who are employed by US forces and international agencies fear loss of employment. Landlords fear loss of rent and excessive vacancy, government officials fear loss of jobs, budgets, and wages, and university students are uncertain about what lies ahead.  <br />
<br />
10.  Needless to stay, post-war Afghanistan can be described as an overflow of ambiguities.   Nothing is certain for Afghans as the explicit and implicit damages of such a long war settle in.  Right now, the psychological, economic, and political factors following this lengthy war are significant in determining the pace at which Afghanistan will attempt to recover and rebuild.  Afghanistan has the opportunity to accept the past and commit to a future of peace, liberty, and progress. There must come a time that music, art, and technology find a strong presence in the schools of Afghanistan. As the country marches in to the 21st century, the potential of electing a woman president should exist. <br />
       <br />
    Although war has dominated this country for decades, Afghanistan has clearly demonstrated the strength to survive. The Afghans need to acknowledge their potential and draw upon their past experiences to create a forward-thinking perspective where hardships do not control the opportunity for growth. Dwelling on the darkness of their past and allowing it to influence their current state will only produce more darkness.  It is time for Afghanistan to look deeply within and invest all of its energy into education for the youth, emphasizing ethical understanding and a passionate commitment to justice and liberty for all. Furthermore, Afghans must adopt the ideal of mutual collaboration in order to maximize knowledge, both within their own country and  with neighboring countries. <br />
<br />
It is axiomatic that foreign invasions and occupations are to blame for Afghanistan's current malaise. Foreign occupation has entrenched ethnic divisions in Afghan society -- the central governments have become puppets of foreign powers, supporting foreign occupiers while freedom fighters resisted. We could argue that Afghanistan would be better off if the U.S. and its allies would simply leave unconditionally. We encourage, rather, forward movement on the part of Afghans to find a common identity and a peaceful solution to its problems.  We think this solution stems from making the whole of Afghan society part of the solution, including giving legitimacy and a stake to all segments of the population in the outcome, especially women.  We also believe in tapping into a common identity around Afghanistan's innate values: respect for neighbors, elderly, and fellow citizens, pride, dignity, honesty, and integrity. The Afghans could go back to their common heritage and to the time before the invasion of the Soviet Union in 1979.  We cannot overstate the importance of finding common ground in re-creating the real Afghan culture to build an environment that fosters peace.<br />
<br />
At this time it would be prudent for the government of Afghanistan and NATO to declare a general cease fire and general amnesty.  This would avail plenty of opportunity to shift from a war to a peace mentality, allowing Afghanistan to join the international community and for U.S. and NATO to declare peace. <br />
<br />
<em>Nake Kamrany is a professor of economics at the University of Southern California.  Professor  Haseena Qudrat is on the faculty of the newly created American University in Afghanistan (Kabul). Michelle Kamrany , a USC graduate in theater, is in the process of introducing music to schools in Kabul.</em>]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1121942/thumbs/s-AFGHANISTAN-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Afghanistan War Is Not a Just War</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/afghanistan-war-just-war_b_3220799.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.3220799</id>
    <published>2013-05-06T09:44:02-04:00</published>
    <updated>2013-05-06T17:22:58-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[How do these costs measure up against the benefits of the war? What benefits were there for the United States in Afghanistan war? How did the security of the United States improve by occupying numerous villages or imprisoning thousands of Pushtun villages in Afghanistan?]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[Unbeknown to most Americans, the Afghanistan war is the longest American war in its history.  More importantly, this war defies the elements of a just war as elucidated by <a href="http://aladinrc.wrlc.org/bitstream/handle/1961/7892/Valvo,%20James%202009S.pdf?sequence=1" target="_hplink">St Augustine</a> of Hippo 2000 years ago:  First, it was not based on clear, legitimate or just aims. The war aim was to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/the_war_in_afghanistan" target="_hplink">capture</a> Osama bin Laden but he was not in Afghanistan. Second, it should not have been undertaken out of hate, greed or other base motives, ostensibly, it was taken out of punishment of the Pashtun tribes under the mistaken view of their anti-American role. Third, this war was prosecuted as a first resort instead of a last resort and finally there must have been the likelihood of success, there is no success in this war.    <br />
<br />
To date, this is the longest war ever endured by the U.S. The only other longest wars the U.S. participated in were the Vietnam War from 1964-1972, and the Iraq War from 2003-2011.  Sadly, there was no true victory in either of those two wars. Unfortunately, the same unsuccessful outcome will be true with the Afghanistan War. At this point, thousands of innocent lives, women, children, and American Soldiers have lost their lives in this war. To help alleviate any further damages incurred by the war, it is essential that the U.S. withdraw their forces this year instead in 2014. Most likely, historians will mark the Afghanistan war the greatest mistake of Obama's presidency, as he labeled it,  <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/accountability-and-wars/261211/" target="_hplink">"the right war."</a> <br />
<br />
When evaluating why the war should end in Afghanistan, it is very important to consider the total damages sustained compared to benefits endured from the war. Let's begin by considering the costs incurred by the United States. Tragically, as of May 5, 2013, there have been <a href="http://www.defense.gov/news/casualty.pdf" target="_hplink">2,206 </a>American soldiers killed , and <a href="http://www.defense.gov/news/casualty.pdf" target="_hplink">18,462 </a>wounded, all young Americans between 18 -29 years of age... Additionally, during the end of 2012, the Congressional Research Service estimated that the total operations cost for the Afghanistan War was <a href="http://csis.org/files/publication/120515_US_Spending_Afghan_War_SIGAR.pdf" target="_hplink">$557</a> billion dollars, not including costs incurred in 2013 and beyond. To put this into comparison, the current California budget deficit is <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/13/local/la-me-0513-state-deficit-20120513" target="_hplink">$16</a> billion dollars , and the federal budget deficit is estimated at <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43907" target="_hplink">$845</a> billion for 2013.  Evidently, the amount spent on the war could have paid off California's deficit 34 times over.<br />
<br />
Furthermore, when breaking down the U.S. expenses into components, the costs are quite alarming.  Just to train and send one U.S. soldier to Afghanistan, it is estimated to cost the United States <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2009-10-30/politics/afghanistan.costs_1_number-of-additional-troops-additional-forces-afghanistan?_s=PM:POLITICS" target="_hplink">$500,000</a>.  And the estimated cost to deploy one U.S. civilian government employee in Afghanistan is <a href="http://www.sigar.mil/pdf/audits/2011-09-08audit-11-17.pdf" target="_hplink">$425,926-$570,998</a>.   Furthermore, there is also a substantial cost for the military equipment in Afghanistan.  Currently, the U.S. military equipment in Afghanistan that has accumulated over the past 10 years is estimated to be worth <a href="http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-185R" target="_hplink">$36 billion</a> dollars. In addition to that, there is an estimated <a href="http://www.sigar.mil/pdf/audits/2012-12-18audit-13-2.pdf" target="_hplink">$12.8 million</a> dollars purchased equipment sitting unused and in storage. Most of it will become worthless, as much of the equipment had warranties that are soon to expire and have yet to be tested.  Evidently, it was not needed. Furthermore, what the nation owes to veterans who are disabled during service has more than doubled since 2000, rising from <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/01/15/veteran-disability-costs-climb/1837925/" target="_hplink">$14.8 billion in 2000 to $39.4 billion in 2011</a>, according to the Department of Veterans Affairs. In this case, Afghanistan and the Iraq War were key contributors. How do these costs measure up against the benefits of the war? What benefits were there for the United States in Afghanistan war? How did the security of the United States improve by occupying numerous villages or imprisoning thousands of Pushtun villages in Afghanistan?<br />
<br />
To fully analyze the cost vs. benefits from the war, it's also necessary to consider the damages sustained by Afghanistan due to the war. From the war alone, it's estimated that Afghanistan has sustained over <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/14/world/asia/14afghan.html" target="_hplink">$100 million</a>, USD, in property damages alone.  Considering it is a very low income country having low GDP, that amount is a substantial loss to encounter. Moreover, it's estimated that at least<a href="http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/~/~/media/Fiscal-Times/Research-Center/Budget-Impact/Think-Tanks/2011/06/29/The-Costs-Of-War-Since-2001.ashx" target="_hplink"> 3,315,000</a> Afghans have been displaced due to the war. In addition to financial losses, the most critical damages they have sustained are from fatalities and injuries. Reports indicate that there were 225,000 civilian deaths and 365,000 physically wounded over <a href="http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/~/~/media/Fiscal-Times/Research-Center/Budget-Impact/Think-Tanks/2011/06/29/The-Costs-Of-War-Since-2001.ashx" target="_hplink">10 years of war</a> in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq combined. However, the estimates in the civilian casualties in the Afghanistan War are likely to be largely underestimated due to the lack of proper body count.  Nonetheless, the fact remains that the number of innocent civilian lives killed were enormous.<br />
<br />
Afghanistan has also encountered many consequential war costs, which include diseases due to lack of clean drinking water, malnutrition and poverty, and reduced healthcare access. The war has also caused invisible problems to Afghan civilians. In 2009, the Afghan <a href="http://costsofwar.org/article/afghan-civilians" target="_hplink">ministry</a> said "fully two-thirds of Afghans suffer mental health problems," and over <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16722788" target="_hplink">800,000</a> Afghans are disabled due to the war. Sadly, once disabled, less than <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/Report/75645/AFGHANISTAN-Disabled-people-have-tough-time-lack-education-jobs" target="_hplink">30 percent</a> are able to find work, leaving them with great financial hardships.  <br />
<br />
While the U.S. is starting to lower the level of troops in Afghanistan, in its place the U.S. is now increasing the use of Drones. Drone strikes rose<a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2013/feb/21/world/la-fg-afghanistan-drones-20130222" target="_hplink"> 72 percent</a> in 2012 compared to 2011, and there were <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2013/feb/21/world/la-fg-afghanistan-drones-20130222" target="_hplink">506</a> strikes alone in 2012. The problem is that while drones reduce risk for U.S. forces, it greatly increases safety risks for civilians. For example, an untargeted Afghan girl collecting firewood had died from shrapnel caused by a drone attack that hit only 30 yards from her home. There will continue to be a rise in risk as the use of armed drones is expected to accelerate as 66,000 troops are expected to leave by <a href="http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-01-10/world/36272364_1_drone-strikes-drone-attacks-qaeda" target="_hplink">2014</a>. Why are we continuing to kill Afghans if we are withdrawing from the war?<br />
<br />
On a societal level, it's also important to consider the impact on the tribal villages, such as the crime and genocide against the Pashtun Tribes. Pashtun people are the largest ethnic group in the <a href="http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/393-haring.pdf" target="_hplink">world</a>  with 45 million living in Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, they are constantly being pushed out of their villages. Around 85 percent of the 6.2 million Afghans that fled and emigrated due to the 1979 Soviet invasion were <a href="http://www.afghan-network.net/Ethnic-Groups/hazaras.html" target="_hplink">Pashtun</a>. And now more are having to leave their villages due to U.S. war in Afghanistan War. They have experienced 30,000 pound bombs destroying their villages, burning of crops, killings of animals and civilians, many women and children. In general, the Pashtun tribes are wishing for peace, equal rights, and education, not war and terrorism. Sadly, they are wrongly being punished for the crimes committed by bin Laden, al-Qaeda, and the Arabs against the United States.<br />
<br />
Upon considering the possible reasons the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, maybe it could have been due to capturing Osama bin Laden, wiping out the poppy production, doing away with warlords and drug lords, going after minerals, or spreading the democratic process to help increase jobs, equal rights for women and protection. Evidently, none of this happened, nor was it necessary. The only benefit that could have come from the war in Afghanistan was with capturing Osama bin Laden. However, that didn't come about due to the war, as bin Laden escaped Afghanistan through <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/world/asia/29torabora.html" target="_hplink">Tora Bora</a> in 2001 and fled to Pakistan. Ostensibly he was not even living in Afghanistan during all of these war years. Therefore, it is regrettably reasonable to state that no significant benefits were created for the United States from the war. <br />
<br />
The critical question remaining is how to end the longest American war in history? Fortunately, the answer to this is quite simple, which is to use Nixon's Vietnam and China approach. In this case, it would be to simply declare victory and pull out by withdrawing all U.S. troops and drones from Afghanistan. Furthermore, as the U.S. continues to withdraw troops, the number of American soldier and civilian casualties in Afghanistan will also substantially decline.  Considering that there was substantially more damages than benefits from this war, it is clearly evident that the people of Afghanistan do not need the assistance of the U.S forces. They do not want it. They are fully capable leading their own government into proper organization necessary for peace and prosperity of their country.<br />
<br />
<em>Nake M. Kamrany is Professor of Economics and Director of Program in Law and Economics at the University of Southern California.   Jessica Greenhalgh is a student of economics and biological sciences, and a Research Associate in the Economics Department and President of Global Income Convergence Group at the University of Southern California.</em>]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1121942/thumbs/s-AFGHANISTAN-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>The Lessons of Afghanistan: The Post-War Deluge of Ambiguity</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/the-lessons-of-afghanista_b_2630768.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2013:/theblog//3.2630768</id>
    <published>2013-02-07T11:13:12-05:00</published>
    <updated>2013-04-09T05:12:01-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[Post-war Afghanistan can be described as an overflow of ambiguities.  The country should invest all of their energy into education for the youth, an emphasis on ethical understanding and a passionate commitment to justice and liberty for all.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[After nearly 12 years, the longest and most conflicted U.S. -Afghanistan war may be winding down.  Thanks to President Barack Obama's decision to speed up the withdrawal of U.S. troops in the spring of this year instead of in the summer saving American and Afghan lives and wealth. This 180 degree shift in policy augurs well for the arrival of peace in Afghanistan since it has been involved in various wars for 35 years. The expectation is that fighting will stop when foreign troops are gone and the flow of suicide bombers and explosives from Pakistan will be halted. Moreover, the U.S. is now convinced that the remnants of Al-Qaeda no longer exist in Afghanistan, although <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/08/opinion/la-oe-0208-tomsen-afghanistan-20120208" target="_hplink">doubt</a> has been raised about the end of the war.<br />
<br />
The critical question especially for Afghans is to consider the issue of peace and war following the withdrawal of foreign troops whose residual <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2013/feb/03/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-column-hagel-afghanistan-20130203" target="_hplink">numbers is speculated</a> in the range of zero and 15,000.<br />
<br />
1.     Will the Central Government be overthrown?  Recent history shows that nearly two years after the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989 the Marxist government was overthrown.  There are two factors that may obviate an overthrow.  First, the U.S. is attempting to get the Taliban to participate in a peace accord with the Central government encouraging the Taliban to participate through the political process.  Secondly, the U.S. is busy training and equipping the Central government's military forces to reach <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/02/world/asia/us-halting-program-to-train-afghan-recruits.html?_r=0" target="_hplink">350,000</a>.  The approach is problematic.  First, the Taliban have been reluctant to participate in the peace process with the Central government and secondly, the shadow government of the Taliban is already in a dominant position with the population and land areas of Afghanistan.  Besides, the Afghan military's loyalty is to their ethnic leaders rather than the Central government.  Moreover, the emerging government may take punitive measures against those Afghans that are thought to have cooperated with the foreign occupiers unless a general amnesty is agreed upon.<br />
<br />
A positive note on this issue is the message that the Taliban issued during the recent Paris peace conference on Afghanistan.  It stated that the Taliban believed that all Afghan factions (tribes, ethnicities, etc.) were entitled to legitimate participation in the government and that women would have education and employment rights.  Under this axiom it is possible that the current Central government will be replaced peacefully and a new government may emerge with minimal disruption. <br />
<br />
We believe there is little doubt that the emerging government will do away with corruption, warlords, drug lords, and impose special taxes on the one percent of the population who became rich by exploiting government connections.<br />
<br />
2.     Is there a deep dissonance/discord between ethnic groups?  Recent history demonstrates that the ethnic groups during the reign of former King Zahir Shah lived in relative peace for 40 years (1933 - 973).  First of all, Afghanistan's population is nearly 100 percent Muslim.  Although there is a minority of Shiites, the two factions have lived in peace for centuries.  There are language differences -- two prominent languages (Pashtu and Farsi).  In the capital city of Kabul most of the residents are bi-lingual.  Although the Pashtun population is in majority and have dominated the government since the 1700s, the other ethnic groups are gaining relative political power.  In terms of per capita income, the distribution is even. In other words, there is no mal-distribution of income, wealth or land in Afghanistan. <br />
<br />
3.     Another positive note for peaceful post-war Afghanistan is the weariness of the population over prolongs wars.   It was in 1978 when the Marxist government overthrew the former established government of Afghanistan and since then some form of the wars (Soviet-Afghan, Afghan-Afghan, and U.S. - Afghan) have engulfed the country.  Afghanistan needs peace to exploit its rich mineral resources, produce business including production of food and crops, promote tourism, construction, and infrastructure and continue with its rapid growth of transportation and communication.  Its recent annual growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is very favorable.  If these trends continue in the postwar period, Afghanistan's per capita income could converge and surpass some of its neighbors. <br />
<br />
4.     Inequality in distribution of wealth, land and income in Afghanistan is not at the forefront of ongoing conflict as landlordism is not present.  Recent economic movement has created a dual economy creating certain sectors to flourish such as communication, transportation, education, art and entertainment.  These have pulled ahead creating a dual economy, but others sectors most notably mineral resources and agro-business, are poised to catch up.  However, a small group of individuals exploiting corruption have swindled millions of dollars out of the country that must be brought to accountability and justice.  <br />
<br />
5.     Drug trafficking dominates the black market as Afghanistan is a major world poppy producer.   With so much profit to be made in drug trafficking, many government officials fall victim to temptation.  Afghans have rightfully lost faith in their government and crime goes largely unreported, which only provides more incentives and opportunities for criminals who have little fear of being caught.  The entire approach of controlling poppy production needs to be revised by the Afghan authorities in favor of alternatives crops for farmers. <br />
<br />
6.     There has been a major gap between Donors' aid promises and disbursement as espoused in several international donor meetings.  Aid has not been channeled through the Afghan system and has not had an appreciable impact upon economic development.  The Afghans must be given the opportunity to be in the drivers' seat.  <br />
<br />
7.     Afghan government assumption of total security apparatus must be realistic and geared to fiscal sustainability of the Afghan budget.  The current contemplated security force of 350,000 soldiers is unrealistic and burdensome relative to Afghanistan fiscal capacity and security requirements.  A sustainable level may be approximately 100,000 ("A Road Map to Peace in Afghanistan," Huffington Post, 1/24/2011).<br />
<br />
8.     On January 12, 2013, during Afghanistan's President Karzai's visit to the White House, President Obama was non-committal on the U.S number of American soldiers that will be stationed in the post 2014 U.S. role in Afghanistan.  In view of the fact that there seems to be no al Qaeda remnant in Afghanistan, there is no need for continued military presence in Afghanistan after 2014.  If anything, the U.S. and 48 NATO nations may provide economic assistance for helping rebuild the country.<br />
<br />
9.     Regardless of the U.S. role after 2014, there is indeed a deluge of uncertainty among Afghans.  Afghans may have to pull up on their own and do it alone. Those Afghans who were employed by U.S. forces and international agencies fear loss of employment and punitive actions.  Landlords fear loss of rent and excessive vacancy, government officials fear loss of jobs, and budget and wages, and university students are uncertain of what lies ahead.  The Taliban hold is gaining on a daily basis.  Currently, control of land and people are moving exactly the opposite direction, causing concern about the sustainability of Central government.<br />
<br />
10.     Needless to say, post war Afghanistan can be described as an overflow of ambiguities.   Nothing is certain for Afghans as the damages of such a long war settle in.  Right now, the psychological damages following this lengthy war are significant in determining the pace at which Afghanistan will attempt to recover and rebuild Afghanistan has the opportunity to accept the past and commit to a future of peace, liberty and progress. There must come a time that music, art and technology find a strong presence in the schools of Afghanistan. As the country marches in to the 21st century, the potential of electing a woman president should exist. <br />
     <br />
Afghanistan has clearly demonstrated the strength to survive. The Afghans need to acknowledge their potential and draw upon their past experiences to create a forward-thinking perspective where hardships do not control the opportunity for growth. Dwelling on the darkness of their past and allowing it to influence their current state will only produce more darkness.  It is time for Afghanistan to look deeply within and invest all of their energy into education for the youth, an emphasis on ethical understanding and a passionate commitment to justice and liberty for all.  <br />
<br />
It is axiomatic that foreign invasions and occupations are to blame for Afghanistan's malaise. Afghan society is entrenched in ethnic divisions -- the central governments had become puppets of foreign powers while supporting foreign occupiers, while the freedom fighters resisted the occupiers. The sentiment of majority Afghans is that all foreign forces leave the country.   We encourage, rather, forward movement on the part of Afghans to find a common identity and a peaceful solution to its problems.  <br />
<br />
We think this solution stems from making the whole of Afghan society part of the solution, including giving legitimacy and a stake to all segments in the outcome, especially women.  We also believe in tapping into a common identity, its innate values -- respect for neighbors, elderly, and fellow citizens.  Recreating adherence to pride, dignity, honesty and integrity. The Afghans could go back to their common heritage and to the time before the invasion of the Soviet Union in 1979.  We cannot overstate the importance of finding common ground in recreating the real Afghan culture to build an environment that fosters peace.  <br />
<br />
<em>Nake Kamrany is professor of economics at the University of Southern California.  Professor  Haseena Qudrat is on the faculty of the newly created American University in Afghanistan (Kabul), Michelle Kamrany, a USC graduate in theatre,  is in the process of introducing music to school in Kabul, Afghanistan.</em>]]></content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Botswana: An African Model for Progress and Prosperity</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/botswana-economic-growth_b_2069226.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.2069226</id>
    <published>2012-11-28T16:00:49-05:00</published>
    <updated>2013-01-28T05:12:01-05:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[Botswana is undoubtedly in an opportune position to become a global economic center as De Beers Diamond Trading Company headquarters relocates from London to Gaborone in late 2013.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[The southern African nation of Botswana has defied the global economic downturn of the 2007-2009 great recession. Instead, it exemplifies the recent transition of economic growth in favor of low-income countries as it jumped from recording one of the world's lowest <a href="http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/BOTSWANAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20183107~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:322804,00.html" target="_hplink">per capita income figures of $70</a> to a middle-income level category of <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bc.html#Economy" target="_hplink">$16,300 within a few decades</a>. Botswana is leaning towards becoming the Singapore or Hong Kong of southern Africa. More importantly, Botswana's progression of economic growthmanship has become the envy of its neighbors, as well as a source of inspiration, which they should consider emulating.  <br />
<br />
What factors explain this impressive performance in the 46 years since independence from Great Britain? First and foremost, countries have been converging rapidly due to two core influences: declining fertility rates (<a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bc.html#BirthRate" target="_hplink">2.46 in 2012</a>), and the rapid transfer and adoption of technology. Additionally, in order for economic convergence to ensue, the annual growth rate of productivity between the less developed and developed countries must be in favor of the lower income nation. Botswana's striking performance stands out not only in Sub-Saharan Africa, but on a global platform as well.<br />
<br />
The nation's valuable diamond and mineral reserves and the influential fiscal and legislative parenting proffered by the UK post-independence and sound democratic leadership have quickly elevated Botswana to one of the world's fastest growing economies; an unmatched level of growth that has been maintained now for nearly five decades. The 1970-2010 average annual income for Botswana citizens has been increasing <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bc.html" target="_hplink" target="_hplink">annually by 6.3 percent</a>, compared to high-income countries averaging <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyondco/beg_04.pdf" target="_hplink">annual growth of approximately 1.8 percent</a> for the same 40-year period. It's not unreasonable then, to advance the notion that Botswana, a nation approximately the size of Texas is expected to realize continued GDP growth and will converge with the global economic leaders' per capita GDP in approximately 26 years -- by 2037. <br />
<br />
Botswana's 2010 per capita GDP (PPP) of $16,100 and classification as an "<a href="http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/BOTSWANAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20183107~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:322804,00.html" target="_hplink">upper middle income</a>" economy since 1989 are certainly out of the ordinary compared to many of their struggling Sub-Saharan neighbors, namely Zambia, Zimbabwe and Namibia. The population growth rates have remained in check over the years, currently growing by a negligible <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bc.html#Population" target="_hplink">1.48 percent annually</a>, thereby granting its lean population of only two million a larger slice of the growing GDP pie and a fairly good quality of life. Botswana's standard of living is currently comparable to such countries as Turkey and Mexico.   <br />
<br />
The discovery of diamonds in 1972 and the mining production that followed created an opportunity for Botswana to support the robust economic and industrial drive of diamond commerce throughout the latter part of the 20th century. According to the CIA World Factbook, <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bc.html#Population">diamond activities contribute </a>to 38 percent of national GDP, generate nearly <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bc.html#Population" target="_hplink">80 percent of export income</a> and 50 percent of government revenue (CIA World Factbook). Botswana is now in the process of thinking ahead and addressing the next phase that will <a href="http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ics/2011/157825.htm" target="_hplink">transform and expand their economy</a> throughout the 21st century; a shift that is guided very much by fairly recent access to technology, communication capabilities and globalization. Eco-tourism, financial and support services, outsourced business process ventures and manufacturing, along with mining and exporting coal are all promising areas of growth. <br />
<br />
According to the global corruption watchdog Transparency International, <a href="http://www.transparency.org/country#BWA" target="_hplink">Botswana scored 6.1 (0=highly corrupt, 10=least corrupt) on the 2011 CPI (Corruption Perception Index)</a>, ultimately ranking them the least corrupt nation of all 54 African countries, and a noteworthy 32nd place from the top in a worldwide comparison. Is this an African success story? In many ways it is. Botswana's distribution objectives include free basic and post-secondary education, zero-cost healthcare and land plots for residence and farming purposes. <br />
<br />
The war against HIV/AIDS has been in full force as former <a href="http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2008/october/20081020mogaeleadership/" target="_hplink">President Festus Mogae was awarded</a> for his initiatives to mandate ARV medication and treatment at no cost to citizens, and for the founding of the African Comprehensive HIV AIDS Partnership (ACHAP). In collaboration with The Gates Foundation, Merck Foundation, the Botswana-Harvard AIDS Institute and the Botswana-UPenn Partnership, Botswana's current HIV/AIDS combating programs are recognized as the most progressive in Africa. Mother-to-child transmission and new infection rates have been on a steady decline since the 2002 mandate, and average life expectancy has risen from less than 40-years-old at the turn of the 21st century to <a href="http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=bc&amp;v=30">55 years in 2010</a>. As of 2011, universal access to treatment, <a href="http://data.unaids.org/pub/Report/2010/botswana_2010_country_progress_report_en.pdf" target="_hplink">determined by the UNAIDS Report </a>at 80 percent coverage or greater, has been officially realized in Botswana; they now <a href="http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2010/september/20100921fsmdgbotswanaqa/" target="_hplink">provide coverage to 93 percent </a>of those in need of ARV treatment across the country. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ics/2011/157825.htm" target="_hplink">Several major firms </a>and international headquarters, including Tiffany &amp; Co. subsidiary Laurelton Diamonds, HJ Heinz, Hewlett-Packard, Barclays Bank and <a href="http://www.sadc.int/index/browse/page/358" target="_hplink">South African Development Community</a> (SADC), have chosen to operate in the nations capital of Gaborone. Botswana is undoubtedly in an opportune position to become a global economic center as <a href="http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/retail/de-beers-relocation-to-botswana-could-make-its-economy-sparkle" target="_hplink">De Beers Diamond Trading Company headquarters relocates from London to Gaborone</a> in late 2013. The enormous and historical move is sure to bring with it increased diamond ventures and trade, international travellers, tourism and an ensuing chain of business opportunities to Gaborone. Both <a href="http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ics/2011/157825.htm" target="_hplink">Moody's and S&amp;P</a> have rated Botswana as a noteworthy investment opportunity in the developing world. <br />
<br />
<em>Nake M. Kamrany is professor of economics at the University of Southern California and Director of Program in Law and Economics. Jennifer Gray is an Associate at the Global Income Convergence Research Group in Los Angeles, and recipient of a 2012 University of Southern California Provost Research Fellowship. She recently returned from a field research trip to Botswana</em>.]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/811084/thumbs/s-WATER-IS-LIFE-CUTE-KID-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>How to Avoid a Depression: First Reduce Unemployment</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/fiscal-cliff-unemployment_b_2162762.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.2162762</id>
    <published>2012-11-21T10:30:58-05:00</published>
    <updated>2013-01-21T05:12:01-05:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[Despite the administration and the Congress's good intentions, economic theory predicts that reducing government expenditures and increasing taxes, especially during these recessionary times, will significantly shock aggregate demand and push up unemployment.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[<em><strong>By Nake M. Kamrany and Samuel Kosydar</strong></em><br />
<br />
The twin deficit this time is high unemployment and high deficit/debt.  As the current fiscal cliff fiasco unfolds it is pertinent for the United States to reexamine its economic priorities. Despite the high unemployment that continues to beleaguer the U.S. economy, Congress's concerns have lately been fixated on the deficit and the growing national debt while the president pushes for more taxes on the rich. Unless further action is taken by the end of this year, taxes will rise and an array of government services will be slashed as mandatory spending cuts go into effect. This double shock of an increased tax burden and sudden reduction in government expenditures will have a disastrous affect on an already feeble economic recovery and may well spiral unemployment above 10 percent. Plummeting employment levels accelerated by these twin shocks may plunge the U.S economy into a depression. Considering the destructive consequences of the administration and Congress's approach, it is prudent to examine an alternative approach that addresses the most immediate threat to U.S. economic growth, i.e., sustained unemployment levels. Reducing unemployment is more urgent than reducing debt. Macroeconomic theory contends that ultimately a strong healthy economy with low unemployment and high government revenues will put the U.S. economy in the best position to then tackle its debt. Congress and the administration must take action, but this time must be doing just the opposite: cut taxes and increase government spending in order to stimulate the economic growth needed to lower unemployment.<br />
<br />
Despite the administration and the Congress's good intentions, economic theory predicts that reducing government expenditures and increasing taxes, especially during these recessionary times, will significantly shock aggregate demand and push up unemployment. Aggregate demand is a function of consumption and investment, which represents the largest portion of the U.S. GDP, investment, and government expenditures, among other factors[1].  If taxes are allowed to increase and the current spending cuts are implemented, all three of these major categories of the GDP would take significant hits. Nevertheless, Congress, while gripped with the fear of debt, legislated $109 billion[<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-obama-budget-idUSBRE88C13T20120913" target="_hplink">2</a>] in sequestrations, or mandatory spending cuts, that is due to go into effect this coming year. In addition, the Bush tax cuts, the payroll tax reduction, and the long term unemployment benefit extension will all expire at the end of this year[<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/11/10/the-fiscal-cliff-explained/" target="_hplink">3</a>].  In total, the tax hike is estimated to be a whopping $200 billion[<a href="http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2012/11/12/GOP-Is-Ready-to-Throw-Millionaires-to-the-Tax-Wolves.aspx#page1" target="_hplink">4</a>].  If Congress's current approach is carried out, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the American economy will shed 2 million jobs[<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-obama-budget-idUSBRE88C13T20120913" target="_hplink">5</a>].<br />
<br />
Moreover, this current plan will not only result in higher unemployment but will also fail to control the growing national debt. Government revenues would shrink as unemployment swells and it would become politically more difficult for Congress to continue cutting government services upon which the ranks of the growing unemployed depend. Ultimately we'd be left with high unemployment and limited means to curtail our bloating deficits. Nurturing a healthy economy by reducing unemployment -- not debt -- should be the highest priority.<br />
<br />
Unemployment has devastating economic and social consequences that in the short term are far more destructive for the U.S. than rising debt. The economic cost of unemployment is the goods and service that would have been produced at the full natural employment level. While it is too soon to analyze the long term costs of unemployment for the current recession, examination of past recessionary periods provides insight into the economic loss suffered.  It is estimated that during the dot.com bust when unemployment swelled to 5.5 percent, the GDP loss due to reduced output was estimated at $509 billion for the period 2001-2003, and during the Great Depression with unemployment levels on average of 18.2 percent, the GDP loss was gauged to be an outstanding $2.3 trillion, or 30 percent of the GDP for the period[6].  Over the past four years unemployment has scarcely dipped below 8 percent and currently hovers at 7.9 percent[<a href="http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000" target="_hplink">7</a>].   Such sustained unemployment is particularly devastating as it erodes the human capital of our economy. The longer a worker is unemployed, the more skills lost and greater likelihood that he or she will be unable to find another job[<a href="http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=8810" target="_hplink">8</a>].  The social impact of unemployment is equally deleterious. Unemployment cripples confidence and is associated with increased divorce and suicide rates[<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/opinion/sunday/the-human-disaster-of unemployment.html?pagewanted=all" target="_hplink">9</a>].  Elevated unemployment, both economically and morally, undermines our society's ability to function. <br />
<br />
Debt, on the other hand, is not toxic in the short term. Although the national debt has dramatically increased over the last decade, a close examination of debt to GDP ratio shows that the U.S has endured even greater relative debt levels in the past. The U.S public debt as a percentage of GDP was estimated to be 73 percent for the fiscal year 2012[<a href="http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43539" target="_hplink">10</a>].  This may seem large, however, during World War II the debt/GDP ratio soared up to 112 percent[<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/the-long-story-of-us-debt-from-1790-to-2011-in-1-little-chart/265185/" target="_hplink">11</a>].  In fact, it was the admirable economic growth following the Second World War that enabled the U.S. to outgrow its debt[<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/krugman-nobody-understands-debt.html?_r=0" target="_hplink">12</a>].  Although the growth rate of U.S. debt is of concern, we must be cognizant of the consequences of pursuing a debt reduction policy without regards to its impact on employment. <br />
<br />
In order to address unemployment, the administration and Congress must find the resolve to stimulate aggregate demand. Economic theory predicts that reducing taxes and increasing government expenditures will spur consumption, induce greater investment, and entice growth.  Greater growth invites higher levels of employment[13].  Although such tactics may temporarily raise the debt, the economic growth brought on by rising aggregate demand will expand government revenues and shrink the deficit. No doubt the national debt level must be eventually addressed, but as a Gallop Poll found, Americans think the most important thing that can be done to improve the U.S. economy is to create more jobs[<a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/155768/americans-focus-jobs-best-improve-economy.aspx" target="_hplink">14</a>].  Quality job growth is the biggest issue. Perhaps Congress should take its cue from the America people and focus attention on delivering greater employment-only then can we tackle the national debt.<br />
<br />
<em>Nake M. Kamrany I professor of economics at the University of Southern California and Director of Program in law and economics and a member of California Bar. Samuel Kosydar is an economic and science student at the University of Southern California and an executive committee member of the Global Income Convergence Group at USC.</em><br />
<br />
Sources:<br />
1, 6, 13.  Macroeconomics. Samuelson, Paul and Nordhaus, William. 19th edition. pg 85. <br />
ISBN: 978-0-07-334422-5]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/866699/thumbs/s-FISCAL-CLIFF-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>The Dilemma of Fiscal Cliff -- The Solution Is to Scrap It</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/fiscal-cliff-policy_b_2115470.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.2115470</id>
    <published>2012-11-13T18:00:09-05:00</published>
    <updated>2013-01-13T05:12:01-05:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[The current economic policy priority should be to reduce the rate of unemployment down to 4 percent and subsequently seeking policies to reduce deficit and debt after the economy is robust.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[The current economic policy priority should be to reduce the rate of unemployment down to 4 percent and subsequently seeking policies to reduce deficit and debt after the economy is robust.  The current  dilemma of fiscal cliff offering two possibilities neither of which are practically acceptable nor offering desirable alternatives.  When the bipartisan Committee met last summer and concocted mandatory tax increase and spending cuts, the dilemma of fiscal cliff was created by default. The Committee's goals were to solve two problems concurrently, i.e., to reduce unemployment and reduce deficit/debt, by the end of 2012. But these two objectives worked against each other when the economy is already in a recession (8+ percent unemployment). Ostensibly, their prescription could not solve either problem, and if implemented it could lead to an economic depression. Why? Because the economy is already in a recession sustaining approximately 8+ percent reported unemployment while the real unemployment rate is in double digit as the discouraged unemployed numbers have withdrawn from the labor force and are no longer counted by the Department of Labor. Macroeconomic theory dictates that during recession, government should lower taxes and increase government expenditure to increase aggregate demand and get the economy to shift from a contraction to an expansion phase. It follows that at this time, taxes should not be increased rather they should be decreased.<br />
<br />
The Committee's prescription last summer must have been based on the assumption that the economy would be in an expansionary phase by the end of December of this year, 2012, and the Committee's recommendation of increasing taxes on the rich and decreasing government expenditures would be triggered in January of 2013. But the recession did not taper off since last summer and therefore its prescription to raise taxes on the rich and reduce government expenditure would be ruinous upon the economy as it will cause the rate of unemployment to rise. Abstracting from the emotional predilection of the ideologues on the issues, the above prescription would be counterproductive with respect to deficit and debt because if the economy turn into a depression, government revenues would shrink causing a rise in deficit/debt. Raising taxes and lowering government expenditures could reduce deficit/debt if the economy were in an expansionary phase of a business cycle not in a recessionary or contraction phase of the business cycle as we are at the present time.<br />
<br />
<strong>What is the Solution?</strong><br />
<br />
Clearly the Committee's determination of raising taxes and cutting expenditures was inherently inconsistent and should be scrapped for the time being until the economy rebounds into an expansionary phase of the business cycle.  Moreover, in terms of priority if a choice is being made to either reduce unemployment or reduce deficit/debt, unemployment must be tackled first.  The economic and social cost of unemployment is heavy, immediate and in the short run.  When the economy is robust and reaches full employment, government revenues will rise and the deficit could turn into a surplus; as it did during the last year of the Clinton administration. This is much better rout than the fiscal cliff. During World War II, national debt rose close to the level of GDP.  Subsequently it declined during the robust years of post-World War II era.  Deficit and debts are caused by recessions and wars. The U.S. economy sustained a major recession since 2007 and two wars (Iraq and Afghanistan) the general public can live with deficit/debts as they are recorded into ledgers and books but not with high unemployment.  They want food on the table, clothing, shelter, health care, recreation and other necessities of life.<br />
    <br />
Moreover, in the current debate it should be pointed out that any argument to raising government revenues, the discussion is superfluous between the alternatives of raising tax rates on the rich and closing loopholes to generate more revenues, in fact closing the loopholes would generate more governmental revenues than raising the rates by a few percentage points. <br />
<br />
In the final analysis, it must be emphasized that during recession raising taxes and reducing government expenditures is clearly a violation of sound macroeconomic policy and should not be tried.  At this time there is a dire need to reduce unemployment by lowering taxes and increasing government expenditures.]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/859246/thumbs/s-ALZHEIMERS-CURE-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>The US Health Care Solution: Both Sides Have It Wrong -- Try Medicare</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/the-us-health-care-solution_b_1926336.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1926336</id>
    <published>2012-10-08T14:43:45-04:00</published>
    <updated>2012-12-08T05:12:01-05:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[A cardinal rule of problem-solving is to accurately define the problem before a solution is applied.  Ostensibly, the Obamacare and Romney proposals both miss the point, as they will be cost-prohibitive if implemented.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[A cardinal rule of problem-solving is to accurately define the problem before a solution is applied.  Ostensibly, the Obamacare and Romney proposals both miss the point, as they will be cost-prohibitive if implemented.  Given the growth rates of annual cost, the total health care bill will exceed the GDP.  As shown in the graph below, it is the outrageous increase in annual costs of the components of health care.  <br />
<br />
<center><img alt="2012-09-30-CPIGRAPH.jpg" src="http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2012-09-30-CPIGRAPH.jpg" width="600" height="355" />  </center><br />
<br />
The inflation rate of CPI (average consumer price index) is compared with the various components of health care inflation. As can be seen, between 1960 and 1985 for 25 years the costs of the components of health care and CPI coincided and those prices were reasonable and affordable.  However, since the mid-'80s, the components of health care entered an un-brittle wild spiral of inflation and by the year 2012 they have rendered the U.S. economy near bankrupt.  Who are the culprits?  Based on the CPI chart, empirical evidence shows that the major culprits are the pharmaceuticals, private physicians, hospitals, and others.  All of them have a CPI that is significantly greater than the current CPI average.  They all engaged in monopolistic rent, and shifted national wealth to their advantage in the absence of competition and regulation.  The excessive annual profits of the pharmaceutical companies, the earnings of physicians, and salaries of health administrators are obscene. In the U.S. alone, the pharmaceutical manufacturers have combined annual revenue of about <a href="http://www.firstresearch.com/Industry-Research/Pharmaceutical-Manufacturing.html" target="_hplink">$200 billion</a>. <br />
<br />
Indeed, the pharmaceutical companies are entitled to recoup their investment when they develop new medicine plus a reasonable rate of return (market rate) on their investment, but it should not be the obscene profits that they have been collecting.  The same or similar rules should apply to the industry at large.  We should recognize that health care is a natural monopoly like utility companies, and therefore their prices should be regulated and must correspond to their costs plus reasonable returns.  Since the demand for health care is relatively fixed, or what economists call inelastic, the suppliers can raise prices unabated in the absence of regulation and competition. <br />
<br />
Clearly, Obama's and Romney's plans overlook many of these cost issues.  Obama's major focus is to make sure that all Americans have insurance by enforcing government regulations against private insurance companies, yet <a href="http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/income_wealth/cb12-172.html" target="_hplink">48.6 million Americans</a> still do not have any health insurance. In return, Obama plans to spend <a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obamacare-now-estimated-cost-26-trillion-first-decade_648413.html" target="_hplink">$2.6 trillion</a> over the next decade through the new Obamacare reform.  Outright, the major problem with this plan is the cost.  Rather than creating a new bureaucracy to handle a government health care plan, it would be more efficient to use the existing Medicare system that is already in place and make it universal. Not only would this allow for faster transition into a U.S. health care-sponsored plan, but it would be much more efficient and less costly since no new establishment would be necessary. It follows that the re-allocation of $716 billion from Medicare to Obamacare is the wrong approach.  Medicare has worked successfully for seniors and it should be expanded to all citizens under the same rule of Medicare tax. Obama's universal mandatory requirement to buy private insurance will be unnecessary.      <br />
<br />
Romney, on the other hand, intends to slowly eliminate the current Medicare system and create a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-romney-medicare-plans-budget-2012-8" target="_hplink">voucher-based program</a> undoubtedly; this would not be an advantageous plan for U.S. citizens because such a plan would be much more expensive than having coverage under an expanded Medicare program. The major issue with a voucher program is that it will allow top-tier U.S. insurance companies to continue <a href="http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2905&amp;context=faculty_scholarship" target="_hplink">monopolistic</a> practices and colluding like they have in the past.  Not only will this harm consumers with higher prices, but it can even harm physicians by getting substantially underpaid, <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2009/mar/26/business/fi-pricefix26" target="_hplink">losing millions</a>. The only ones that will profit the most are the top insurance companies and administrators.<br />
 <br />
Economically, the best solution and cure for U.S. health insurance is to interject competition (domestic and foreign) and regulate prices.  This can all be accomplished by simply making the current Medicare plan universal to cover every citizen of the U.S. regardless of age and income.  The costs for the plan could be covered under Social Security Medicare tax just as Medicare is covered today.  Medicaid should be abolished and its coverage should be included under Medicare.  And since many young people would now be included in the program, the cost of Medicare will decline substantially. This is simply due to the fact that young people as a whole have less health care-related problems than seniors.  Moreover, there would be no need to create a new administration because Medicare is already in place and has several years of experience with an <a href="http://www.law.berkeley.edu/files/Hacker_final_to_post.pdf" target="_hplink">overhead cost</a> of less than 4 percent. This expanded Medicare plan would eliminate the need for the compulsory purchase of private insurance under Obamacare, a great advantage since current insurance rates are very high and many people cannot afford it.  And under an expanded Medicare program, people would still have the option to purchase private insurance if they wish for additional benefits.  <br />
<br />
Taken as a whole, it is critical that the health care plans developed from the political oppositions between Obama and Romney are disregarded.  Instead, it is necessary to recognize the economic reasoning that establishes which health care plan is affordable for the U.S. economy and its people.  Evidently, spending an additional $2.6 trillion on a reform, or destroying a well-established Medicare system is not optimal.  The U.S. ought to employ the efficient Medicare health care system that currently exists, and simply expand on it. Senior citizens in the U.S. are privileged to have access to Medicare, and so should every other citizen regardless of their age or income.]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/728490/thumbs/s-MIAMI-DADE-HEALTH-CARE-JACKSON-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>A Road Map to Implementing U.S. Healthcare</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/financing-healthcare_b_1702849.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1702849</id>
    <published>2012-07-25T14:33:32-04:00</published>
    <updated>2012-09-24T05:12:25-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[Healthcare must be removed from the political process in order to eliminate the stronghold of lobbyists and monopolists who are largely responsible for the towering cost of U.S. healthcare.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[Now that U.S. Healthcare is constitutional, the success of its implementation largely depends upon breaking up the medical cartel(s), and separating it from the political process, in order to make it cost affordable. The most recent figures report that the U.S. per capita healthcare cost is <a href="http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=SHA" target="_hplink">$8,233</a>, which is over 152 percent that of the OECD <a href="http://www.una.ab.ca/news/archive/health-spending-growth" target="_hplink">$3,268</a> average, yet the health indicators of comparable rich countries are about equal that the U.S. (78.7 years of life expectancy for <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr60/nvsr60_04.pdf" target="_hplink">Americans</a>, and 79.8 years for <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN" target="_hplink">Europeans</a>). If unchecked, U.S. healthcare costs will further exasperate the U.S. deficit and national debt, frustrating the implementation of national healthcare program. In order to implement a sustainable U.S. healthcare program, we must first identify the source of these high costs and apply viable solutions.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
Ostensibly the U.S. healthcare industry is fraught with political process oligarchy, and economic oligopoly. By definition, healthcare is an issue of public service and humanity, not politics. However, political powers have manufactured (rendered) healthcare a campaign (political) tool, stripping it of its humanitarian purpose. This was no more apparent during the recent Supreme Court deliberations and decision, where six members of the Court demonstrated their adherence to ideology rather than the welfare of the nation. Judge Roberts's courage to rise above the fray, abandon political innuendos, and establish the legality and constitutionality of healthcare was miraculously admirable. The creation of a sustainable healthcare program was long overdue as the U.S., the world's super power and leader of the rich and poor countries, was without one.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
But we are not home free yet. There remains the ideological discord between our two major political parties, who continue to put their political gains in front of the national interest of healthcare. While Obamacare passed through the Supreme Court, the American public is still confused on the merit of the plan due to its prospective cost. This comes as no surprise as both parties have turned the humanitarian issue of healthcare into a campaign weapon, further polarizing the nation, and complicating the implementation of any healthcare program.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
Parenthetically, a major concern surrounds the affordability of the Obamacare healthcare plan. Making up 17.9 percent of GDP5, and growing at a rate higher than inflation, the sustainability of any U.S. healthcare program at current costs is questionable. The underlying reason for the egregious cost is the oligopolistic market structure of the healthcare industry, and its strong lobby, which assures monopolistic costs. The culprits include the American Medical Association's <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2007/09/a_spoonful_of_monopoly_helps_t" target="_hplink">monopolistic practices</a>, <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2281597/pdf/canfamphys00384-0055.pdf" target="_hplink">hospital oligopolies</a>, and <a href="http://lobby.la.psu.edu/002_Patent_Extension/Organizational_Statements/NAPM/Issues_Affecting.htm" target="_hplink">pharmaceutical monopolies</a>, which as a result are limiting the supplies of products and services, pushing prices far above the CPI to the point of choking the economy.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
The first step to reducing the cost is to recognize that healthcare is not a political ideology, but rather an issue of humanity.  Healthcare must be removed from the political process in order to eliminate the stronghold of lobbyist and monopolists, who are largely responsible for the towering cost of U.S. healthcare. The Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB), and any other government agency, must be independent of any political influence; maintaining focus on cost/benefit rather than political agendas. Second, the IPAB should expand Medicare and Medicaid programs to cover all citizens, which will eliminate the need for creating new costly bureaucracies. Third, it is necessary to increase the supply of all medical services and products throughout the country, via imports and subsidization of domestic production. This increase in supply and competition will effectively drive down costs, and encourage efficiency throughout the industry.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
Indeed, it will take time to shift from the current costly oligopolistic market structure to a more accessible and economical healthcare system. However with proper leadership and focus it is possible to create a sustainable, cost-efficient healthcare program, while preserving U.S. leadership and innovation in biomedical research, development of new drugs, new procedures and equipment.  Nonetheless, steady progress must be made to reduce cost.  If no change is made on the cost front, our huge healthcare system could easily be derailed due to inadequate funds for healthcare.<br />
<br />
<br />
<em>Nake M. Kamrany is professor of economics and director, program in Law and economics at the University of Southern California and a member of California Bar. Jessica Greenhalgh is an Economic and Biological Sciences student at USC and a research member of the Global Income Convergence Group at USC. Justin McGinnis holds a B.A in Economics, and is a Ph.D. student in Pharmaceutical Economics at the University of Southern California.</em>]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/688347/thumbs/s-HEALTH-CARE-REFORM-HEALTH-INSURANCE-REBATE-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>An Optimal Solution to U.S. Health Care</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/us-health-care_b_1457072.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1457072</id>
    <published>2012-04-28T17:59:23-04:00</published>
    <updated>2012-06-28T05:12:03-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[Health care should be treated as a basic human rights issue, and that is the way it is being treated in most of the European Union.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[U.S. health care is fraught with emotional prediction of ideologues including the Supreme Court.  The combination of U.S. private and public health care cost,  if unchecked,  will exceed the budget of the federal government by the year 2027, leaving out 50+ million Americans who have no coverage, the poor and  children  who receive inadequate health care and the private policy holders who can no longer afford it.  The annual cost increase of private health care, which is ranging between <a href="http://www.pwc.com/us/en/press-releases/2011/employer-medical-costs-expected-to-increase.jhtml" target="_hplink">five and eight percent</a>, is no longer affordable by employers and private policy holders.  Abstracting from ideological and constitutional constrains, it is time to redefine health care in the United States as a public good, as it is in Western European countries -- a public good like national defense, public education, public parks, public roads, etc., which are made available to all citizens. <br />
<br />
<br />
We can also implement a U.S. Health Care program.  More importantly, resolving the health care issue is not complicated -- it is much simpler and far less costly than the Obama plan, assuming that the political will for solution coalesces the agenda of the President and the Congress.  Given the fact that private health care will render the economy bankrupt, we should realize that government is the only solution, just as the governments in the European Union  run and administer a workable health program.  In the United States, Medicare has several decades of experience and a good track record keeping administrative and overhead cost below <a href="http://institute.ourfuture.org/files/Hacker_Key_Findings.pdf" target="_hplink">three percent</a>. Let us merge Medicare (which serves seniors) and Medicaid (which serves low income persons) into one and provide coverage to the entire population, including 50 million that have no coverage and the private policy holders, including those that are covered by their employers.  There will be no need to buy individual private insurance although the option will be available.  The program, you may call it "National Medicare Program," can be financed through Social Security.<br />
<br />
<br />
Under this program, per capita medical cost and its annual rise could be pegged to the European standard without cutting quality, as their health care indicators are at par with the United States.  For instance, <a href="http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=195" target="_hplink">longevity in the United States</a> is 75.55 years for males and 81.43 years for females, and in England it is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15372869" target="_hplink">78.2 years for males and 82.35 years</a> for females, while England's per capita cost for health care is about <a href="http://apps.who.int/nha/database/DataExplorer.aspx?ws=2276&amp;d=1" target="_hplink">50 percent</a> of the United States' costs.  Under these programs,  U.S. physicians, insurance companies, labs, hospitals and pharmaceuticals would have to scale down and put their costs in line with the new approach.  In 2010, the U.S. health cost was <a href="http://www.kaiseredu.org/Issue-Modules/US-Health-Care-Costs/Background-Brief.aspx" target="_hplink">17.9 percent of GDP</a>, with a comparable figure for European Union at <a href="http://www.globalhealtheurope.org/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=248&amp;catid=71&amp;Itemid=141" target="_hplink">8.5 percent</a>. These culprits in the United States are responsible for the rising medical cost.  If unchecked, more Americans will be without health care coverage in the future due to high cost.<br />
<br />
<br />
Health care should be treated as a basic human rights issue, and that is the way it is being treated in most of the European Union.  The United States, as one of the richest and most advanced countries in the world, must provide health care to all its citizens.<br />
<br />
<br />
However, U.S. medical costs are astronomical.  In 2010, U.S. total health cost amounted to 72 percent of the 3.6 trillion dollars budget.  Additionally, the costs of health care in the US are  increasing faster than the budget.  By 2020, it is estimated that heath care costs will reach <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/28/news/economy/healthcare_spending_forecast/index.htm" target="_hplink">4.6 trillion dollars</a> in the United States.  And upon performing analytic calculation, it was found that the total health bill will exceed the U.S. budget by 2027.  This analysis was conducted by taking into account the U.S. growth rate, S&amp;P Healthcare Economic Composite Index, U.S. health care expenditures and the U.S. budget.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
One of the major issues is high physician salaries and laboratory related costs.  From a British government survey conducted in 2004, primary care doctors in Europe were found to have an income ranging from <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/29/weekinreview/29berenson.html" target="_hplink">$60,000 to $120,000</a> in U.S. equivalence in 2002 dollars.  However, primary care doctors in the United States were found to have an average income of $125 to $200 thousand.  So the primary care doctors in Europe were making about half that as U.S. doctors.  However, it seems that the major problem comes from the fact that U.S. doctors in specialized fields started making substantially more, being able to make <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/health/policy/25doctors.html" target="_hplink">$400,000 per year or more</a>.  In comparison, this is the same, if not more, than the income for the President for the United States.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
Furthermore, because of the higher amounts healthcare providers can make on some insurances, and with the low audit rates, some heath care professionals have been found to charge high rates fraudulently.  For instance, such instances occurred in the <em>United States vs. Luke's Subacute Hospital</em> case, which found and convicted the president, CEO, and some employees of the hospital for defrauding Medicare by falsely inflating nursing costs.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
Considering that the total costs of Medicare, Medicaid, and Obama reform will exceed one trillion dollars per year, it seems that a better solution would be to restructure the current government healthcare programs.  The first step should be to entirely eliminate the Obama reform, considering it does not directly provide any healthcare insurance, and is no more than an administrative health reform providing few benefits with a large cost of <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/healthreform/healthcare-overview#healthcare-menu" target="_hplink">$900 billion</a>.  A more efficient plan is for the Medicare and Medicaid programs to be expanded into a new insurance program that functions as a national insurance plan that covers all citizens in the United States. And since these two programs have already been successfully established for many years, in addition to Medicare having very low administrative costs, it would be more efficient than private insurance with larger administrative, fees and profit costs. <br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
This national plan could easily be funded through the current Medicare and Medicaid revenue sources supplemented with additional taxation.  Tax payers could pay an additional tax, which essentially would be a small premium for a universal healthcare plan.  The taxation would still be less than having to purchase health insurance either privately or through their employer. The amount to pay into the plan should be scaled based upon the taxpayer's incomes.  Anyone making less than the poverty level would not have to pay into the plan.  And people not in the poverty level could be charged a progressive rate that increases as their incomes increase.  The goal of the plan would be to obtain expenditures significantly lower than what the United States currently spends on healthcare.  Not only would it provide better healthcare, but it would even help decrease the current deficit in the United States, prevent people from going without healthcare.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
This national plan should also have a method to put healthcare providers onto more of a salary based income, charging a higher tax rate to healthcare providers making more than certain salary. Then the amount collected from this tax could also go towards funding the national health insurance plan.  It has been previously proven that doctors on salaries provide higher quality of care at a much <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/health/policy/25doctors.html?_r=1" target="_hplink">lower cost</a>, and even President Obama attempted to encourage such a practice.<br />
<br />
 <br />
<br />
My simple, affordable solution would be to expand on Medicare to develop a national health care of Basic Health Plan guaranteed to all citizens. Making these changes could help restore our entire healthcare system quickly and efficiently.  It will eliminate budget constraints on states, eliminated pre-existing conditions, include all ages, and provide an all inclusive and equal benefits to all citizens.<br />
<br />
<br />
<em>Nake M. Kamran (Kamrany@usc.edu), is professor of economics and director of program in law and economics at the University of southern California. Jessica Greenhalgh is student in economics and biological sciences at the University of Southern California, and a research associate of the Global Income Convergence Group (GIC-G) in Los Angeles.</em>]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/560144/thumbs/s-HOSPITAL-EMERGENCY-ROOM-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Bangladesh's Rising Income Potential</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/bangladeshs-rising-income_b_1435674.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1435674</id>
    <published>2012-04-18T18:03:26-04:00</published>
    <updated>2012-06-18T05:12:02-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[Bangladesh is poised to follow China and India's recent growth pattern of rising per capita income, with its impressive growth performance of per capita income averaging and reduced population growth rate.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[Bangladesh is poised to follow China and India's recent growth pattern of rising per capita income as the recent distribution of economic growth has shifted in favor of low and middle income countries.  Bangladesh's estimate of economic growth is predicated upon its impressive growth performance of per capita income averaging <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bg.html" target="_hplink">5-7.5 percent</a> over the last decade, and expectation of continued positive economic performance.  Moreover, it was able to reduce its population growth rate from <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/drodrik/Growth%20diagnostics%20papers/Economic%20growth%20in%20Bangladesh%20-%20experience%20and%20policy%20priorities.pdf" target="_hplink">2.7 percent in 1970</a> to <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/drodrik/Growth%20diagnostics%20papers/Economic%20growth%20in%20Bangladesh%20-%20experience%20and%20policy%20priorities.pdf" target="_hplink">1.58 percent in 2012</a>, which will contribute to its population control and a steady rise of per capita income.<br />
<br />
In addition, Bangladesh has a good prognosis to achieve the United Nation's Millennium Development Goals as they have reduced poverty below <a href="http://www.undp.org.bd/mdgs.php" target="_hplink">40 percent</a>, gained gender equality, enhanced education levels, maintained relative political stability over the last 20 years, and <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/drodrik/Growth diagnostics papers/Economic growth in Bangladesh - experience and policy priorities.pdf" target="_hplink">shifted their economy</a> from agriculture in favor of industrial technology and communication including capturing employment in the "international outsourcing labor market."     <br />
 <br />
Bangladesh's reform movement is of recent origin.  It started in 1990 through sound macroeconomic policies, investment in education, drawing upon communication technology and maintaining relative political stability.  The history of Bangladesh is linked to the departure of colonial British India in 1947 when India was initially dissected into three countries: East Bengal, India and Pakistan.  Then East Bengal was amalgamated with Pakistan and became East Pakistan. However, due to cultural dissonance, East Pakistan seceded and formed Bangladesh in 1971 after nine months of bloody struggle for independence.  It took Bangladesh an <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/drodrik/Growth diagnostics papers/Economic growth in Bangladesh - experience and policy priorities.pdf" target="_hplink">additional two decades</a> to recover from the devastation and brutality of the war and reach a state of normalcy and stability.  Currently Bangladesh has two major political parties, namely Awami League and BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) that have been ruling alternatively during the past 20 years.  A system of a neutral Caretaker Government has been responsible for administering elections for the past 15 years. Though this process has been abolished, the system has contributed to peaceful transition of political power and should be re-instated and continued.<br />
<br />
Prospects for continued economic development look very promising, especially if Bangladesh begins development and reconstruction projects, including disaster preparedness necessary for incessant monsoons, instituting building codes for earthquake safety, fortifying waterways, and building infrastructure of road and cities.  As a largely delta region with many rivers and one border of coastal land on the Bay of Bengal, waterways play a significant role in the economy.  During British rule many of the waterways were fortified and flooding damages were minimized through dams and barrages, which were not kept up in the interim period.  The construction of this infrastructure will contribute to significant growth of employment in the economy and such projects will enhance installation of hydroelectricity generators, which will provide substantial renewable energy.  Improving infrastructure is crucial also to creating a positive foreign and domestic investment climate to mitigate the weather-related economic risk.<br />
<br />
Relations of Bangladesh with India will have a major bearing upon the prospects of Bangladesh to join the "rich club" along with India and China.  There are disputes between Bangladesh and India over <a href="http://www.sydneybashi-bangla.com/Articles/HarunRashid_Teesta%20Water%20I.pdf" target="_hplink">unresolved water</a> ways.  Bangladesh has filed a legal action with the International Court of Justice to determine the maritime boundary regarding the rights in Teesta River, the fourth largest in the country.  These disputes need to be resolved fairly either through the court system or bi-lateral negotiation.  The resolution of these disputes will free Bangladesh to explore its natural resources of gas and oil within its water territories. <br />
<br />
Moreover, India blocks a majority of Bangladesh's exports to India via excessive imposition of tariffs.  Indeed the two nations must reach trade agreement that will be mutually beneficial and resolve the water way disputes expeditiously.  <br />
<br />
<em>Nake M. Kamrany is a Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California. Jessica Stauffer and Faiyaz Azim are both students of Economics at the University of Southern California. </em>]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/229958/thumbs/s-BANGLADESH-MUSLIM-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>U.S. Incarceration Rate Is a National Disgrace</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/incarceration-rate_b_1423822.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1423822</id>
    <published>2012-04-13T15:27:34-04:00</published>
    <updated>2012-06-13T05:12:01-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[U.S. jails are overcrowded.  By reallocating budgets to improving living conditions and education, crime rates will fall -- so will the stigma of U.S. incarceration and prosperity will rise.
]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[United States incarceration rate defies the rule of optimal sanction that would promote equity and efficiency. It incarcerates <a href="http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf" target="_hplink">753 per 100,000</a>; <a href="http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf" target="_hplink">comparable European figures</a> include 153 for England, 96 for France, 92 for Italy, 66 for Denmark and 90 for Germany.  The high figures in the United States are caused by imposing punishment rather than rehabilitation as the pendulum for "tough on crime" swung in the 1980s.  California's three strike laws, power under proposition 2, direct filing and other tough-on-crime measures are illustrative. <br />
<br />
Over the past forty years the number of incarcerated people has increased <a href="www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf" target="_hplink">350 percent</a> while population increased <a href="www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf" target="_hplink">33 percent</a>, violent crimes rose 3 percent higher than 1980 while property crimes dropped from <a href="http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/glance/tables/proptrdtab.cfm" target="_hplink">496.1</a> per 1,000 in 1980 to <a href="http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/glance/tables/proptrdtab.cfm" target="_hplink">134.7</a> in 2008, according to the <a href="http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/glance/tables/proptrdtab.cfm" target="_hplink">Bureau of Justice Statistics</a>. This growth in incarceration rates is primarily attributed to changes in correctional policies that have been ruled by the Supreme Court, followed by the judiciary system, the Justice Department, and the prosecutors whose utility function for re-election by "being tough on crime," overrides national wellbeing. <br />
<br />
For instance, the "three-strike laws "adopted in 1990 impose a life sentence on persons who have been convicted of three or more serious crimes. However, the definition of serious crimes depends on the each state. In most states, all three must be violent crimes. But in some states, this is not the case. California law mandates the life sentence for any third felony conviction so long as the first two were deemed "violent" or "serious."  Moreover, an individual can receive multiple strikes from a single incident, leading to unexpected life sentences. <br />
<br />
In <a href="http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=US&amp;vol=445&amp;invol=263#" target="_hplink">Rummel v. Estelle</a>, the Supreme Court upheld a life sentence with the possibility of parole for William James Rummel for a felony fraud crime amounting to $120.75.  On his third offense, Rummel refused to return money received as payment for unsatisfactory repairs of an air conditioning unit, resulting with a life sentence. In <a href="http://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=1810564739536423477&amp;hl=en&amp;as_sdt=2&amp;as_vis=1&amp;oi=scholarr" target="_hplink">Lockyer v. Andrade</a>, Leandro Andrade received a mandatory sentence of 25 to life for stealing a total of nine videotapes at two different K-mart stores. Under California's three strikes law, any felony can serve as the third "strike" and thereby expose the defendant to a mandatory sentence of 25 years to life in prison. <br />
<br />
Another case that demonstrates impacts of such minimum punishment laws is <a href="http://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=6898534424588461966&amp;hl=en&amp;as_sdt=2&amp;as_vis=1&amp;oi=scholarr" target="_hplink">Ewing v. California</a>. In 2000, Ewing stole three golf clubs worth $399 each and was charged and convicted of felony grand theft of personal property. During sentencing, Ewing requested the judge in the case exercise discretion permitted under California law and reduce the conviction to a misdemeanor. The judge declined and sentenced Ewing in accordance with the three strikes law. On appeal, Ewing argued the sentence of 25 years to life was grossly disproportionate to the crime and therefore a violation of the Eighth Amendment protection against cruel and unusual punishments. The court, reasoning that the three strikes law served the state's legitimate interests, rejected this claim. The California Supreme Court declined to hear the case. <br />
<br />
Do these rulings promote equity and efficiency or have they become burdensome upon society?  Why not employ alternative deterrent mechanism other than incarceration?  A study has <a href="http://www.vera.org/download?file=407/veraincarc_vFW2.pdf" target="_hplink">shown</a> that a 10 percent increase in incarceration is associated with two to four percent drop in crime.<br />
<br />
The dramatic increases in incarceration rates in the United States are influenced by a number of additional factors.<br />
<br />
<strong>Racial Consideration</strong><br />
There is a <a href="http://www.backspace.com/notes/images/us042903.pdf" target="_hplink">drastic disparity</a> when comparing the race of inmates to the general population in the United States. There are 69.13 percent Whites, 12.32 percent Blacks, and 12.55 percent Hispanic but the inmate population is 34.72 percent White, 43.91 percent Black and 18.26 percent Hispanics.  We believe this significant disparity is attributed to racism.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>Education and Race</strong><br />
There is a drastic difference in incarceration rates of black <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/black-male-dropouts-lead-nation-in-incarceration-63870242.html" target="_hplink">high school dropouts</a> as compared to other races, which points to racial bias, as this difference is not explained solely by larger number of crimes being committed by blacks than other races.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>The war on drugs</strong><br />
Non-violent drug offenders make up <a href="www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf" target="_hplink">25 percent</a> of the incarcerated population (up from less than 10 percent in 1980). While in Europe, drug offenders may be sent to outpatient clinics, in the United States, enormous sums are spent waging war on drugs and incarceration. There is a disconnect between the intended results of our politicians and the actual results that the taxpayers are paying.<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>Types of crimes</strong><br />
According to the Center of Economic Policy Research (CEPR), only <a href="www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf" target="_hplink">8.5 percent</a> of federal prison inmates have committed violent offenses, meaning that 91.5 percent of federal inmates committed non-violent crimes. 61.8 percent of all inmates (including jail, state prison, and federal prison) committed non-violent offenses. Since 1960, violent and property crimes have stayed relatively constant, yet incarceration rates have risen almost <a href="www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf" target="_hplink">450 percent</a>. This rise in incarceration does not seem to be explained by the incident of crime rate.  It follows that the impact of incarceration on crime rates is small. On the other hand, monetary cost to government budgets and social costs to prisoners, their families and their communities must weigh against incarceration...<br />
<br />
 <br />
<strong>Fiscal Cost</strong><br />
In 2008, federal, state and local governments spend nearly <a href="www.cepr.net/documents/publications/incarceration-2010-06.pdf" target="_hplink">$75 billion</a> on corrections (mostly incarcerations). With so much of this money being allocated to non-violent offenses and the war on drugs, there have been significant budget cuts on education. Since these massive expenditures are not efficient for society, it would be much more beneficial to allocate some of this fund on education, which would entice the high-school dropouts to stay in school and pursue an education to make an honest living, as opposed to fall into a life of crime. Moreover, it is very expensive to build and maintain all of the new prison and jails that have been needed with such rises in incarceration rates...  There are also other economically inefficient legal practices regarding cost.  For instance, the lifetime per prisoner cost is <a href="http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/costs-death-penalty" target="_hplink">estimated</a> at 1.2 million, while instituting the death penalty cost at least 2-3 times more due to legal fees and appeals that vary per state.<br />
<br />
In the Netherlands non-custodial sentencing has grown. Concurrently, prison and crime rates have both been falling. Britain has proposed replacing jail for lesser offenders with community work, fines and rehab. <a href="http://theweek.com/article/index/100575/the-prison-nation" target="_hplink">New York</a> has adopted similar practices and cut its incarceration rate by 15 percent from 1997 to 2007, while reducing crime by 40 percent.<br />
<br />
In conclusion, the incarceration approach has failed.  It is very costly, unfair and ineffective.  U.S. jails are overcrowded.  By reallocating budgets to improving living conditions and education, crime rates will fall -- so will the stigma of U.S. incarceration and prosperity will rise.<br />
<br />
<em>Nake M. Kamrany is a Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California.<br />
Ryan J. Boyd is a Research Assistant in Economics at the University of Southern California and a member of Global Income Convergence Group (GIC-G) in Los Angeles.</em>]]></content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>The Global Problem of Gender Inequality</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/gender-inequality_b_1417535.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1417535</id>
    <published>2012-04-11T10:44:03-04:00</published>
    <updated>2012-06-11T05:12:02-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[The evidence of gender discrimination is rooted in history, tradition and culture. Gender inequality is a highly debilitating stigma and leads to detriments of women's psychology of their worth and dignity to themselves and to society.
]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[<p>Egregious gender inequality still exists globally despite of substantial national and international measures that have been taken towards gender equality.    Only four out of over 135 nations have achieved gender equality including Costa Rica, Cuba, Sweden, and Norway.  Yemen was scored the lowest across all dimensions.  Measures of gender equality include access to basic education, health and life expectancy, equality of economic opportunity, and political empowerment.  Although there have been evident progresses, many alarming issues regarding gender discrimination still prevail today; therefore, total gender equality must be made a global priority as a fundamental step in both human development and economic progress.</p><p><br />
<br />
 	The degree and causes of gender inequality vary throughout the world.  Noticeable crimes against women consist of violence, femicide (murder of women), and rape (war rape).  Honor killing, one such offense, is when a female member of a family is killed for the perception of having brought dishonor to the family.  It has become a massive issue in countries such as Pakistan and the Muslim Middle East, and is on the rise.  In July 2009, two Saudi Arabian sisters, 21 and 19 years old, were killed by their brother in the presence of their father under the rubric of defending the family's honor.  Other instances of illegality include the over 3,000 women in Guatemala who have been murdered over the past seven years on account of cases involving misogynistic violence, the <a href="http://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/pdf/fgm_eng.pdf" target="_hplink">estimated</a> 130 million girls who were genitally mutilated in Africa and Yemen, and the <a href="http://www.unicef.org/newsline/00pr17.htm" target="_hplink">approximate</a> 5,000 women in India who suffer female infanticide each year (bride burning) due to insufficient dowry payment -- money given to the husband by bride's family.    These actions are not only unlawful violence against women, but also towards the whole of humanity.</p><p><br />
<br />
	Sex-selective abortion is yet another major disaster of gender inequality as it fuels human trafficking, demographic imbalance, and sexual exploitation.  India and China, the two most populated nations on Earth, both informally maintain this practice of preference for male child birth over female.  Females are undervalued in Chinese society, and under ONE CHILD POLICY, families opt for boys over girls.  In China, with approximately 32 million more boys than girls under the age of 20, females are widely viewed as weaker, more expensive, and less intelligent than men.   This gender imbalance has <a href="http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/07/sex-selection-abortion-mara-hvistendahl" target="_hplink">caused</a> a ratio of 126 boys to 100 girls among the 1-4 age groups.  Similarly, in India the birth of a boy is welcomed while that of a girl is viewed as a burden.  Undoubtedly, sex-selection is a violation of the right to life and has distorted the natural sex ratios of 50/50 in countries in which it is practiced. </p><p><br />
<br />
	National and international measures are at work but they are not sufficient to minimize and eliminate gender inequality.  For instance, the Society of Defending Women's Rights in Saudi Arabia is designed to empower women and protect their rights.  In India, the Prevention of Immoral Traffic, the Dowry Prevention Act and the Sati Act aim to prevent widow burning.  Indeed, China and India are both fighting feticide and infanticide.  By providing financial assistance to families with girls, India is not only encouraging female education, but also supplying parents with financial aid for their daughters dowry.  Meanwhile, China has taken strides to limit the abuse of modern technology by outlawing the use of ultrasound or gender detection methods.  Moreover, they have granted parents who have a female child another chance at birthing a son in the hopes that families will not abandon, abort, or murder their female infant.</p><p><br />
<br />
	From an economic viewpoint, gender discrimination is also a major impediment to growth as it prevents countries from reaching their maximum productivity potential.  Although women constitute 40% of the global work force, there are still many who are unpaid family workers in the informal sector.  Those who do work are generally paid much below that of male workers, despite being equally capable and skilled.  Furthermore, their status and promotion is limited to middle or below ranks, they are laid off pre-retirement age more frequently than men, they have limited educational opportunity, and they typically run smaller farms and less profitable enterprises.  Due to these obvious restrictions, many countries experience loss of productivity that amounts to 25% due to gender discrimination.  According to one study, Japan's GDP will <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/04/can-women-be-a-catalyst-for-japans-renewal/236820/" target="_hplink">gain</a> by 15% if employment gender discrimination is adjusted.  Unfortunately, the historical influence of Confucianism in Japan has led to male superiority over female through domestic abuse, emotional violence, sex exploitation, unfair treatment in career, and an inferior social status.  Gender discrimination is costly to nations across the globe and forces women to suffer the severe emotional and economic repercussions.</p><p><br />
<br />
	Beyond the economic costs, gender inequality also has severe individual and societal losses for a nation.  While the female sex constitutes slightly more than 50% of the population, only 14 of the total 200 governments, or 7%, are headed by women.  An adjustment of this inequitable representation will go a long way to correct global gender inequality.  To further promote gender equality, there need be increased education for women, improvements in public health, more child care facilities, and availing women equal voice in cultural, social, economic and political spheres of public life.  Without equal representation of women's voice in policy-making and institutions, decisions are often more advantageous for men and therefore inefficient to the nation as a whole.</p><p><br />
<br />
	The evidence of gender discrimination is rooted in history, tradition and culture.  Gender inequality is a highly debilitating stigma and leads to detriments of women's psychology of their worth and dignity to themselves and to society.     </p><p><br />
<br />
The remedy would have to emanate from the cultural tradition of citizenry; accordingly, the collaboration of local communities, institutions, national authorities and international bodies is essential to influencing change and promoting the value of women.  They all must act in concert with respect to communication, education, leadership, and cultural norms and traditional values in order to shift the attitude and mindset of the population in favor of gender equality -- respecting mothers, daughters, sisters who are equal partners in this global diaspora.<br />
</p><p><br />
<em>Nake Kamrany is Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California and Catherine Robinson is a Research Assistant in economics at USC and a member of Global Income Convergence Group (GIC-G in Los Angeles</em></p>]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/414548/thumbs/s-GEN-Y-WOMEN-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Afghanistan: What Explains Taliban Staying Power?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/afghanistan-what-explains_b_1273958.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1273958</id>
    <published>2012-02-13T14:50:49-05:00</published>
    <updated>2012-04-14T05:12:01-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[The U.S. war in Afghanistan is one of three U.S.  wars against low-income countries (Vietnam war and Iraq war)...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[The U.S. war in Afghanistan is one of three U.S.  wars against low-income countries (Vietnam war and Iraq war) which posed no security threat to the U.S.  All parties sustained enormous damages in blood and wealth. In retrospect, the projection of U.S power and influence was superfluous and had no purpose.      <br />
<br />
Nevertheless, it will be instructive to understand the staying power of the "rag-tag" Afghan Taliban against the awesome military might of the most powerful superpower the world has ever known -- the U.S. military.  Ostensibly, the U.S. invasion and occupation of Afghanistan is finally winding down after the longest American war in U.S. history.  The decision to wind down American engagement in Afghanistan was announced by U.S. Secretary of Defense, Leon E. Panetta, in a surprise announcement early this month that the U.S. plans to wind down its combat role in Afghanistan a year earlier and turn it over to Afghan forces. <br />
     <br />
Moreover, the U.S. has encouraged the Taliban to peace talks in Qatar both to end the war and ostensibly formulate a coalition government that would end tribal and ethnic violence in the country.  The U.S. move is indeed a wise one to stop the bleeding wound (over 2000 U.S. soldiers dead and some 20,000 injured)   and loss of direct wealth of approximately $264 billion ($2 billion per month for 132 months).  It is an opportunity for the U.S. to declare victory over the Taliban, take its losses, quit and end this unwinnable war. <br />
<br />
The Taliban sustained enormous losses over the last 10+ years of resistance including 396,000 dead, 792,000 inured and 65,000 civilian casualties plus destruction of some 12,000 villages.<br />
In light of this destruction, why did the Taliban not bend?  Following are a number of socio-cultural and ethnic traits that shed some light on the issue.<br />
<br />
 <ol><li>The Taliban are of Pashtun tribe residing in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  The Pashtun tribe is the largest single tribe in the world (approximately 27 million).  They conquered India seven times and were invaded by Alexander the Great, the Mongols. Great Britain (four times), the Soviet Union, and the United States.  It is the graveyard of empires.  It is axiomatic that the way a nation/people perceives its history is a strong influence of whether its society can resist foreign domination.  Taliban belief that history is on their side is an invaluable moral asset in resisting a desperate war against an "invader" possessing massive advantage in mobility, fire power, wealth and political cohesion.       </li><br />
<li>The U.S. reached the same conclusion as Great Britain did during the 1980s -- that the volatility of Afghan politics and the costs of maintaining large armies in a remote and difficult countryside (twice the size of Texas) is prohibitive. The Soviet soldiers (1979-89) occupied every one of the 36,000 villages and the minute they withdrew they lost the village.  Afghans in general despises foreign occupation causing regular army soldiers not to shoot at Taliban and to make secret accommodations.  As a result the Taliban shadow government in many provinces of Afghanistan is ruling.</li><br />
<li>Whenever there is a vast difference in the fire power of invaders and local resistance, the Afghans have adhered to guerrilla warfare of hit and run as they did against the Soviet forces and as they are doing now against the U.S. forces.  The stoic acceptance of death against superior firepower explains the courage and physical toughness of the Taliban.  These qualities were attested to by their British opponent during the Anglo-Afghan wars.</li><br />
<li>Family is the most important unit of social organization and it is impermeable and self-contained unit, extending to clan and tribe.  The system is egalitarian and democratic and individualistic.  Despite varied ethnic and linguistic groups, their value system is congruent in matters affecting their freedom, dignity, and religion.   Any system that attacks the integrity and honor of the Afghan family-clan- tribe is bound to face severe retaliation.  Those members of the family/clan/tribe who get killed in resistance are viewed as martyrs and the living members are expected to pursue resistance to the end.</li><br />
<li>The Taliban are not fanatical about ideologies or political causes.  They are traditional Moslems and have a strong belief in the concept of fairness.  They reject invasion by foreign forces as unfair and will resist at any cost.  The most prized values in Afghan culture are bravery in combat.  However, they do have a propensity to settle difference with enemies if it is fair.  At times, however, they are stubborn, inflexible and superb bargainers; they will adhere to a position, even if unreasonable. To the bitter end.</li></ol><br />
<br />
  It follows that the prospective peace negotiation with the Taliban in Qatar could suffer from communication and structural dissonance if the cultural imperatives are not appropriately considered.  For a successful outcome, the negotiators shall be treated with dignity and respect keeping in mind that the political culture of Afghans rejects external authority and emphasizes freedom and independence.  The culture is impermeable to the imposition of alien rule.  It is doubtful to get Taliban  acquiescence to a coalition government with Karzai, if they have any role in government, the current malaise of corruption, drug production, warlords, and drug lords will be eliminated.]]></content>
    <link href="http://i.huffpost.com/gen/484403/thumbs/s-TALIBAN-mini.jpg" type="image/jpeg" rel="enclosure"/>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>The Emerging Brazilian Economic Convergence</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/the-emerging-brazilian-ec_b_1202801.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2012:/theblog//3.1202801</id>
    <published>2012-01-12T16:39:52-05:00</published>
    <updated>2012-03-13T05:12:01-04:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[With annual per capita income growth rate three times faster than the United States over the last decade, foreign investment up 26% in the past five years and promising expansionary projects entering construction stages, prospects are bullish for Brazil.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[Brazil has joined China and India among middle income countries to forge ahead towards closing the income gap between the North-South disparities and take advantage of the shift in the distribution of economic growth in favor of middle income countries.  With annual per capita income growth rate three times faster than the United States over the last decade,   foreign investment up 26% in the past five years and promising expansionary projects entering construction stages, prospects are bullish for Brazil.  <br />
<br />
Although the per capita income of developed countries dwarfs that of Brazil ($10,800), its recent 7.5% economic growth rate coupled with its stable democratic political climate have created optimism that the nation is poised to complete its meteoric rise to the First World.  The future is bright: playing host to the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics promises substantial financial gain.  Oil discoveries, ironically paired with Brazil's top-ranked dedication to renewable energy, ensure Brazil's economy will maintain its swagger for decades to come.  But how does the Brazilian economy continue to expand while many of its neighbors wallow in volatility and stagnation? The answer is sound macroeconomic policy.  While Brazil's economy hurtles toward economic convergence with the Western world, other underdeveloped countries would do well to examine the economic strategy that fostered its ascent.  Brazil's current status is the culmination of several stages in its economic succession.<br />
<br />
		Brazil's first step toward economic success was independence in 1822, which annulled the country's prohibition of foreign trade and industrialization as enforced by Portugal.  However, Brazil's history of cash crop economics rendered it helpless in the early 20th century, as the demand for its burgeoning luxury exports like coffee was eradicated by the onset of the Great Depression.  To maintain some semblance of an economy, Brazil diversified into other industries like clothing, textiles, and beverages.  While these fledgling industries provided necessary infrastructure and jobs, stagnation persisted.  Brazil needed widespread diversification and prudent macroeconomic strategy to revitalize its hamstrung economy.   As the left-wing president and Communist sympathizer Joao Goulart began trying on economic policies like so many party hats, stagnation continued and the country began to call for a coup by the newly-popular Armed Forces.  <br />
<br />
 The Armed Forces assumed control of the government in March 1964, creating a <em>Junta Militar</em>, or military dictatorship.  While the <em>junta</em> abolished media, restricted freedom of speech,  quashed political opposition and engaged in  torture, executions and human rights violation,  its reforms resulted in the Brazilian Miracle, an annual economic growth rate of 11.1% from 1968-1973.  The implementation of import-substitution industrialization proved the impetus for this skyrocketing growth, as Brazil produced many of its goods domestically instead of acquiring them through imports.  But although this system diversified the Brazilian economy and laid the groundwork for many of the sectors that thrive today, import-substitution industrialization was only a mirage.  The policy of import substitution had to give way to an open economy.  With government officials borrowing to maintain high rates of growth, Brazil sank deeper into debt.  High interest rates increased the foreign debt while an oil shock exacerbated the country's disparity in balance of payments.  While these factors are known to induce inflation, it was Brazil's system of financial indexation to account for inflation that sent its economy into a tailspin.  Hyperinflation peaked at 5000% while economic growth tumbled to 2.9%, introducing Brazil to the economic quandary of stagflation.  This stagnation-inflation marriage along with constraints on human rights provoked a renewed desire for democracy in Brazil, which the junta surprisingly allowed in March 1990.  Although the <em>junta</em> seemed miraculous for six years, its import-substitution industrialization experiment culminated in failure.  <br />
<br />
The newly elected democratic government, headlined by President Itamar Franco and his Minister of Finance Fernando Henrique Cardoso, introduced sweeping reforms aimed at creating an open economy.  The government sought to induce trade liberalization, deregulation, and foreign investment with its stabilization plan.  The strategy, called the Plano Real, was composed of a new currency, a balanced budget, and a new system of indexation.  <br />
<br />
Commissioned in 1994 by Cardoso, the plan sought to eliminate inflationary expectations with a new balanced budget, as the system of indexation realigned relative prices in order to implement monetary reform.  While prior indexation attempts had resulted in economic chaos, officials hailed their 'URV' (Real Unit of Value) system as a super-index, with values pegged to the dollar to retain stability.  The URV allowed sufficient time for all economic agents to realign their prices, where its predecessors had created havoc by inducing price controls and imbalances.  The indexation system determined the value of the new currency, the Brazilian real, as both worked in concert with tight monetary and fiscal policy to augment stability and curb inflation. By restricting foreign expenditures and boosting domestic interest rates in 1998, Cardoso succeeded in attracting foreign capital and managing a balanced budget.  <br />
<br />
The Plano Real was a landmark success: in June 1994, inflation registered at 50%, by July it measured 5.5%.  Not only has open economic strategy curbed chronic inflation in Brazil, but the trustworthy Brazilian Real has stabilized prices and given purchasing power back to the lower echelons of society.    Moreover, the free market has redistributed wealth, not only nurturing a growing middle class but suturing a fragmented society.   <br />
---------------------------------------------------<br />
<em>*Nake M. Kamany is professor of economics at the University of southern California and Director of Program in Law and Economics.  Danny Jacobs is a Research Associate in the Department of Economics at USC and a member of Global Per Capita Convergence Group (GPC-G) in Los Angeles. </em>]]></content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>The Great Recession of 2007-2008 Could Be Ruinous If Not Resolved</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/the-great-recession-of-20_b_1125725.html"/>
    <id>tag:www.huffingtonpost.com,2011:/theblog//3.1125725</id>
    <published>2011-12-02T13:01:19-05:00</published>
    <updated>2012-02-01T05:12:01-05:00</updated>
    <summary><![CDATA[Currently we are stuck and the government must implement fiscal and monetary policy vigorously to ward off a depression and get the economy out of the great recession.]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Nake M. Kamrany</name>
        <uri>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/</uri>
    </author>
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nake-m-kamrany/"><![CDATA[Does the great recession of 2007- 2008 signal the beginning of the decline of Western powers and its domination of the global economy which began 500 years ago?   <br />
<br />
Probably not, because the factors that contributed to the dominance of the West beginning in the 16th century are still valid; most notably its prowess in science, invention, innovation and technological change.   And the spirit of entrepreneurship and competition is still alive and thriving.  <br />
<br />
However, a decline could ensue in our preeminence if the current self-inflicting bleeding wound of inaction is prolonged by politicians concerning the job situation.  The dysfunctional Congress has not responded to President Obama's job bill and the failure of the bi-partisan congressional super committee to reduce federal debt by $1.2 trillion over ten years and adjust tax rates on the rich is prolonging the dilemma of the great recession.  If the current hyper-partisan environment is not resolved, it could exasperate the contraction of the economy into a depression or the economy could suffer from deflation or stagflation, which means the concurrence of both recession and inflation.  <br />
<br />
The great recession of 2007, which started with housing bust and prime mortgage, has turned into a political logjam, and is still with us despite of declaration by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that the recession was over in 2009.  <br />
<br />
The recession is not over yet since the official unemployment rate has remained at approximately 9% plus an additional 7% who are part-time or have withdrawn from the labor market.  This brings the total to approximately 22.4 million workers out of jobs out of a total labor force of approximately 140 million.    This level of unemployment is intolerable.  <br />
<br />
Sociologists rank the hardship sustained by unemployment to death in a family.    It follows that at this juncture the Congress and the super committee leave the cynical political divide and get on with the urgent task of providing jobs through fiscal and monetary incentives.   It is the confidence of the private sector that is crucial to invest and innovate and re-create a vibrant economy.  <br />
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Historically, the U.S. economy has rebounded into long expansion after a contraction.  For instance, during the Great Depression of 1930 -1939, the unemployment rate maxed at 24.9% but the U.S. economy rebounded.  To address the current recession, the super committee of Congress must regain its confidence and attempt at a renewed growth and expansion experience of the past that will resolve the debt and unemployment issue such as the experience of the second half of the twentieth century in which real GDP per capita expanded by 250% in the United States from the end of World War II to the year 2000.   In 1982 the unemployment rate was 11%.  Then the economy expanded during 1982 to 2007 and unemployment had dropped below 4%.   <br />
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 In general market economies endure business cycled i.e., fluctuate over time in total national output, employment and income.  They are marked by simultaneous and widespread fluctuation including contraction and expansion of the economy.      It follows that the intensity of the fluctuation-gyration and the duration of the fluctuation determines whether it is a mild recession or a depression.  Currently we are stuck with a great recession and the government must implement fiscal and monetary policy vigorously to ward off a depression and get the economy out of the great recession.]]></content>
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