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Entries by Brendan Nyhan from 02/2011

No Labels = No Supporters

| Posted 02.03.2011 | Politics

I predicted back in November that No Labels would fizzle, but it's remarkable to see the lack of interest. Despite widespread media coverage, the group has only managed to attract 18,697 signatures for its No Labels Declaration.

Early Primary/Straw Polls Don't Matter

| Posted 02.10.2011 | Politics

If you look at CPAC's track record, the straw poll is not a meaningful predictor of eventual GOP presidential nominees.

Are the Republican Presidential Candidates Weak?

| Posted 02.15.2011 | Politics

It's true that the current GOP presidential field lacks a widely praised figure who is held in esteem by both Democrats and Republicans. It's not clear, however, that the absence of such a figure will matter.

Do Early-Stage Candidate Favorability Ratings Matter?

| Posted 02.16.2011 | Politics

The fact that candidate favorability is somewhat stable during the primary process doesn't mean it's ultimately a significant predictor of the general election outcome.