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Entries by Charles Franklin from 12/2007

Bush Approval: Still around 33%

| Posted 12.12.2007 | Politics

President Bush's approval rating remains about where it has been for several months: 33% plus or minus a fraction. The current trend estimate is 3...

Comparing Primary Trend Estimates

| Posted 12.21.2007 | Politics

Lots of exciting movement in the polling in both parties has pushed me to review the bidding on trend estimators. As regular readers know, the "blue" ...

Pollster Variation in Iowa

| Posted 12.26.2007 | Politics

(LARGE graphs-- you probably should click once or twice to see them at full resolution in order to see the details.) A new American Research Grou...

Graphing Debate Time by Candidate

| Posted 12.28.2007 | Politics

A brief break from polls to comment on graphics and politics. Today's New York Times has an op-ed by NBC's political director Chuck Todd and a grap...

Primary State Voters Making Up Their Minds

| Posted 12.29.2007 | Politics

Voters in the early primary states are making up their minds, or at least picking a candidate when pollsters call. For all that has been written...

The Ghost of Caucus Past

| Posted 12.29.2007 | Politics

As we pour over the latest data, it is worth taking a look back at a previous year in Iowa. The Democratic contest in 2004 was strikingly dynamic...

Sensitive Trends Update: IA, NH, SC and US

| Posted 12.29.2007 | Politics

Here is an update comparing the standard "blue line" estimate of poll trends with the more sensitive "red line", and a simple 5 poll moving average...