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Entries by Mark Blumenthal from 11/2007

Gore Revealed as Frontrunner?

| Posted 11.01.2007 | Politics

Earlier today, Zogby International released what it calls a national "blind bio" telephone poll of 527 "likely Democratic primary voters" that was sp...

Halloween (Week) Leftovers

| Posted 11.02.2007 | Politics

Frank Newport blogs on the importance of immigration to Democrats and promises a new Gallup poll on the presidential race early next week. Jonathan...

Three Campaigns

| Posted 11.05.2007 | Politics

As someone who has spent much of his career as a paid political professional, there are moments in most campaigns when the horserace coverage of the ...

NH Poll: Horserace or Betting Line?

| Posted 11.06.2007 | Politics

Yesterday, I wrote about an aspect of the way the media has been covering the campaign that "makes me want to scream." Today, we have a story about a...

Wednesday's "Outliers"**

| Posted 11.07.2007 | Politics

Frank Newport compares Hillary Clinton's performance on the recent Gallup survey to the recent Marist survey and warns of small sample sizes but ...

A Swampland "Virtual Chat"

| Posted 11.08.2007 | Politics

I have been on a train for most of the afternoon, and did not have time to post earlier, so two quick notes. First, you can catch me on a new "Swam...

Two New NH Polls on Sunday

| Posted 11.10.2007 | Politics

In addition to a new University of New Hampshire poll due over the weekend (as reported yesterday by John DiStaso), we also received results from ano...

A Hits B, B Hits A, C Wins?

| Posted 11.10.2007 | Politics

Read between the lines of some recent reports and it sure sounds as if negative attack ads will be airing soon. "By December," The Washington Post's ...

Re: Did Clinton take a hit after the debate?

| Posted 11.12.2007 | Politics

If you haven't had a chance to read it yet (and you should), my colleague Charles Franklin has taken a closer look at the trend lines in our Democrat...

New CBS Polls in IA & NH Tomorrow?

| Posted 11.13.2007 | Politics

Via Ben Smith, DrudgeReport is reporting: CBSNEWSNYT POLL SET FOR RELEASE ON WEDNESDAY: IOWA: HILLARY 25%; EDWARDS 23%; OBAMA 22% NH: HI...

About Those Ugly Iowa Calls

| Posted 11.14.2007 | Politics

By now many of you know about a new outbreak of nasty phone calls in Iowa. I have to say that this episode truly puzzles me. Politico's Ben Smith rep...

AAPOR Blogs on Huffington Post

| Posted 11.15.2007 | Politics

My colleague Nancy Mathiowetz, a noted survey methodologist and current president of the American Assoociation for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), w...

Mellman on What Poll Responses Mean

| Posted 11.15.2007 | Politics

We have been talking quite a bit lately about the difficulty pollsters have in identifying "likely caucus goers" in Iowa. Pollsters face si...

Polling Nevada

| Posted 11.15.2007 | Politics

I have been focusing heavily on the Iowa caucuses, both our Disclosure Project started with polls there and because the competition, particularly on ...

"Pushing" the Ethics of Message Testing?

| Posted 11.16.2007 | Politics

Another day, another "push poll" story. This time, Politico's Jonathan Martin reports on an "apparent push poll" in Iowa involving a "research firm" ...

"Outliers:" Push-Poll Free Edition

| Posted 11.16.2007 | Politics

Frank Newport challenges Barack Obama's comments about "poll driven positions" and thinks a Time Magazine polling box "gets it backwards" regarding r...

Anti-Romney Poll: So Who Did It?

| Posted 11.17.2007 | Politics

The story of the anti-Romney poll calls into Iowa and New Hampshire that I wrote about yesterday gets stranger and stranger. Here is the lead of the ...

New WMUR NH Poll Tonight?

| Posted 11.19.2007 | Politics

Reported by TNR's Michael Crowley last night: "WMUR is hyping a new state primary poll due out at 5 p.m. tomorrow. Stay tuned."...

HuffPo's OfTheBus Polling Project

| Posted 11.20.2007 | Politics

This morning, the Huffington Post has announced it's OffTheBus Polling Project that aims to scrutinize pollsters -- "an industry devoted to scrutinizi...

More on the Ugly Iowa Calls

| Posted 11.20.2007 | Politics

Ben Smith, who was all over the story of those ugly calls into Iowa last week (calls that included a nasty negative involving Elizabeth Edwards' battl...

More on the ABC/Post Iowa Poll

| Posted 11.20.2007 | Politics

More on yesterday's new Iowa poll from ABC News and the Washington Post. Stu Rothenberg has a scathing review of the coverage on Political Wire: Fo...

New "Mormongate" Theories: A Reality Check

| Posted 11.21.2007 | Politics

I was going to try to finish up my Disclosure Project post again today, but alas, there are more timely reports on the mysterious anti-Romney poll wor...

Pre-Thanksgiving "Outliers"

| Posted 11.22.2007 | Politics

Republican Pollster Neil Newhouse sends Politico a "brief pollster's guide to what constitutes a push poll and what doesn't." Kathy Frankovic revi...

Polling Over the Holidays?

| Posted 11.26.2007 | Politics

The most important news of the last week was something pollsters tracking the races in Iowa and New Hampshire were probably not so thankful for. New H...

Later Tonight: An Innovative Post Debate Survey

| Posted 11.28.2007 | Politics

The pollster/public relations firm known as InsiderAdvantage announced today that they will be conducting an "unprecedented" poll, sponsored by the Fl...