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Entries by Mark Blumenthal from 08/2009

Why Do They All Poll in the Same Week? Also 'Outliers'

| Posted 08.01.2009 | Politics

Ron Brownstein reviews Obama's receding tide. More on the latest wave of national polls from Ben Smith, Katie Connolly, Charlie Cook Matthew Cooper, D...

'Huffpollstrology' and Response Rates

| Posted 08.03.2009 | Politics

My National Journal column for this week, on a largely overlooked Huffington Post feature ("Huffpollstrology") that asked national media pollsters for...

More On Response Rates

| Posted 08.04.2009 | Politics

Following up on yesterday's column and my additional comments on the Huffington Post's requests for response rate data from pollsters last fall, I wan...

Pile on Polling 'Outliers'

| Posted 08.05.2009 | Politics

Walter Shapiro ponders "pile on polling" (via Political Wire) Tom Edsall sees Republicans returning to a "white voter strategy." Gallup finds increase...

On Rasmussen's Index and Intensity of Opinion

| Posted 08.05.2009 | Politics

Last week, TPM's Eric Kleefeld examined the "Presidential Approval Index" reported daily by Rasmussen Reports. Rasmussen calculates the index by subtr...

'Can I Trust This Poll?' - Part I

| Posted 08.07.2009 | Politics

What makes a public opinion poll "scientific?" If you had asked that question of a random sample of pollsters when I started my first job at a polling...

Can I Trust This Poll?

| Posted 08.07.2009 | Politics

Let's take a step back and consider the elements that most pollsters deem essential to obtaining a high quality, representative survey.

Geeks Rule 'Outliers'

| Posted 08.07.2009 | Politics

Ed Kilgore notices the sudden disappearance of a much touted pro-life shift; Steve Benen has more. Paul Krugman smacks Rasmussen for "what looks like ...

SUSA's Leve: Polling (As We Know It) 'Doomed' by 2012*

| Posted 08.10.2009 | Politics

My National Journal column for the week, on the surprisingly dire view of the future of polling from SurveyUSA's Jay Leve, is now online. At a panel a...

'Can I Trust This Poll?' - Part II

| Posted 08.11.2009 | Politics

"Can I trust this poll?" In Part I of this series I tried to present the growing clash between traditional polling methods and a new breed that breaks...

Woodstock Flashback 'Outliers'

| Posted 08.11.2009 | Politics

Rasmussen finds consumer confidence hitting a new high for 2009; ABC News measures a 3-month high. Charles Blow explains that those who most want heal...

Can I Trust This Poll? Part II

| Posted 08.11.2009 | Politics

There's a clash between traditional and new polling methods. Here, I review the philosophies at work behind efforts to evaluate polls and offer a few suggestions about what we can do to assess whether poll samples are truly representative.

'Can I Trust This Poll?' - Part III

| Posted 08.12.2009 | Politics

In Part II of this series on how to answer the question, "can I trust this poll," I argued that we need better ways to assess "likely voter" samples: ...

How to Improve Pollster Disclosure

| Posted 08.12.2009 | Media

It can be hard to convince pollsters to disclose methodological details. I want to review the past efforts and propose an idea to promote more complete disclosure in the future.

See You In A Week 'Outliers'

| Posted 08.15.2009 | Politics

Bill Clinton predicts increasing Obama approval should health care reform pass. Gary Andres says the health care debate is hurting Obama with independ...

Not-Quite-Post-Vacation Housekeeping

| Posted 08.24.2009 | Politics

Now that I'm back from a week's vacation, Emily is taking two well earned days off today and tomorrow and I will be filling in adding new polls to our...

Thank You, Time!

| Posted 08.24.2009 | Politics

Some very good news: Time has named to its list of the 50 Best Websites of 2009! What makes this honor especially huge is that Time's lis...

Emily Has a Hard Job 'Outliers'

| Posted 08.25.2009 | Politics

Gary Langer and Nate Silver offer different perspectives on polling on the public option. DailyKos polls in Jim Cooper's district; Cooper fires back, ...

Kennedy's Legacy

| Posted 08.26.2009 | Politics

"What," I heard Chuck Todd ask on MSNBC a few minutes ago, "is the way [Sen. Edward Kennedy's] legacy should be measured?" I'm not sure I have a great...

The Public Option: No 'Perfect' Poll

| Posted 08.27.2009 | Politics

Is there a right way to "poll the public option?" Are most pollsters "getting it wrong," while only a few ask the "perfect question" about the much de...

No 'Perfect' Way to Poll the Public Option

| Posted 08.27.2009 | Media

When it comes to testing reactions to complex policy proposals, I would rather have 10 pollsters asking slightly different questions than trying to settle on a single "perfect question."

Under 50 'Outliers'

| Posted 08.28.2009 | Politics

Gallup's Obama job approval hits 50%; Michael Goldfarb and Michael Crowley note the estimate falling under 50. Jeff Jones reminds that pr...

Don't Shoot the Pollsters

| Posted 08.31.2009 | Politics

My National Journal column for the week, on criticism of questions asked by the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll over the last few months on a public opti...