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Entries by Mark Blumenthal from 06/2010

Rasmussen Final Weekend Polling

| Posted 06.01.2010 | Politics

My column for this week examines a minor oddity some have noted elsewhere: Why has automated pollster Rasmussen Reports done less final-weekend pre-el...

The Alabama Surprise

| Posted 06.02.2010 | Politics

It's hard to blog about polling and not comment on last night's surprise outcome in the Democratic primary for Governor in Alabama, although I followe...

On 'Modeling' and Surveys

| Posted 06.07.2010 | Politics

My National Journal column for this week looks at the "modeling" that underlies both online panel surveys and all pre-election polling. Please click t...

DailyKos Fires Research 2000

| Posted 06.09.2010 | Politics

Markos ("Kos") Moulitsas has opted to "part ways" with DailyKos polling partner Research 2000 and seek "a new polling partner to finish out this elect...

More on the Arkansas Surprise

| Posted 06.09.2010 | Politics

Before moving on to the more important issues raised by both Nate Silver's new pollster accuracy ratings and their apparent role in parting of ways be...

World Cup 'Outliers'

| Posted 06.11.2010 | Politics

Gallup finds Hispanic voter preferences unchanged after passage of the Arizona immigration law. Jennifer Agiesta reviews the Post/ABC data on opinio...

Transparency and Pollster Ratings

| Posted 06.11.2010 | Politics

My column for next week has been posted a little earlier than usual. It covers the controversy over Nate Silver's pollster ratings, and bloggy exchang...

Transparency and Pollster Ratings: Update

| Posted 06.14.2010 | Politics

[Update: On Friday night, I linked to my column for this week, which appeared earlier than usual. It covers the controversy over Nate Silver's pollste...

Oil Spill Pie Charts Suck 'Outliers'

| Posted 06.14.2010 | Politics

John Harwood sees little impact from the oil spill on Obama approval (with an assist from Charles Franklin). Joel Benenson frames climate change legi...

Rasmussen Profile in Washington Post

| Posted 06.17.2010 | Politics

Today's Washington Post Style Section features a lengthy Jason Horowitz profile of Scott Rasmussen, the pollster whose automated surveys have "become...

AAPOR Adds Transparency Initiative Endorsements

| Posted 06.18.2010 | Politics

And speaking of AAPOR's Transparency Initiative, the organization announced via email yesterday the names of 11 more survey organizations that recentl...

Rating Pollster Accuracy: How Useful?

| Posted 06.18.2010 | Politics

I have been posting quite a bit lately on the subject of the transparency of Nate Silver's recently updated pollster ratings, so it was heartening to ...

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings: How Useful?

| Posted 06.18.2010 | Media

For better or worse, FiveThirtyEight's prominence makes pollster ratings central to our conversation about how to interpret and aggregate polls, and I have some serious concerns about the way these ratings are calculated and presented.

Column on NCPP/AAPOR Effect & Answering Silver

| Posted 06.21.2010 | Politics

My column for this week follows up on last week's topic from a different angle: Nate Silver's intriguing finding that as a group, pollsters that are m...

Democratic 'Pollster' Doubles as Tea Party Candidate?

| Posted 06.24.2010 | Politics

Well, here's a story you don't read every day: A pollster for Florida Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson is running as a Florida Tea Party candidate...

Lie to Me 'Outliers'

| Posted 06.28.2010 | Politics

Lymari Morales puts support for Elena Kagan in context; Chris Bowers has more. Frank Newport finds an increasingly pro-gun environment as a backdro...

Daily Kos: We Were 'Defrauded' by Research 2000

| Posted 06.29.2010 | Politics

Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas today rocked the polling world by posting an analysis that he says shows "quite convincingly" that the national sur...

The DailyKos Research 2000 Controversy: 'How Bad for Pollsters?'

| Posted 06.30.2010 | Politics

The allegations of fraud leveled by Daily Kos founder Markos (Kos) Moulitsas and the analysis of Mark Grebner, Michael Weissman and Jonathan Weissman ...