Today the contest is finely poised, because millions of voters are impressed with neither main party. Both Tories and Labour are caught together in a vortex of public condemnation. If one of them can escape the swirl and regain its credibility, it will be well placed for 2015.

This week's debate by MPs on reform of the House of Lords has been framed as a test for the relationship between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

In January, Miliband's ratings lagged far behind David Cameron's. Now, they are similar. Indeed, YouGov's latest poll for the Sunday Times shows Miliband slightly ahead, with his best ratings since last summer.

If George Osborne hoped that he would spend only a few awkward, post-Budget weeks navigating his sea of troubles before reaching calmer waters, YouGov's latest poll for the Sunday Times will come as a shock.

The news for George Osborne continues to get worse. YouGov's latest survey for the Sunday Times was conducted following the news that Britain's economy contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of this year - a worse figure than most economists had predicted. Even if, as I suggested last week, the final revised figures are not as bad as this, the pressure for the time being on the Chancellor is growing more intense.