Today, Cameron and his family are at Chequers, enjoying perhaps the happiest new year of his premiership. He is the undoubted master of Britain's political landscape. His Labour, Lib Dem and Ukip opponents have turned in on themselves. His own backbench rebels have fallen silent. He is already dreaming of how to win his third general election in 2020.

As governments down the years have discovered, welfare is a political minefield. Most people think they pay more into the government’s welfare pot through taxes than they draw out in benefits.

Were Cameron to commit to a referendum he would unleash years of uncertainty about Britain’s future place in the world. And that could undermine the very reassurance, and reputation for moderation, that will be central to the Tories’ prospects of victory in 2015.

We have found that Ukip’s support is significantly higher when people are asked for their EP vote than when they are asked how they would vote in a general election.

For the first time in the current parliament, more people would vote for Britain to stay in the European Union than to leave.

It looks as if the Conservatives have gained from the Prime Minister’s speech on the European Union; but only slightly.