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Azeem Ibrahim

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Muslims in America 2012 - Who Will They Vote For?

Posted: 02/01/2012 2:56 pm

In December last year, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) announced their 2012 "Muslims Vote" campaign. A 2012 presidential voter guide is available, they have an online registration tool and a video, as well as a presence on Twitter. The hope is to encourage participation in the election among young Muslim voters as CAIR recognizes that with a large Muslim population in key swing states such as Ohio, Florida and Michigan, the Muslim vote potentially has great influence.

The overall Muslim population in the US is an estimate and somewhat controversial depending on which communities are included. But it is generally accepted that there are between 3 and 5 million Muslims in the country, and that this number is growing.

CAIR's GOTV campaign will hopefully make an impression on Muslim voters as the 2012 election approaches. Certainly, their Voter Guide questions have helped reveal the prejudices of some of the presidential candidates. With four of the more outspoken candidates out of the race, CAIR's Voter Guide profiles on the rest tend to feature their attitude towards Islam and toward civil rights. On Santorum, for example, it notes that he "supports indefinite detentions of suspected terrorists without charges at the Guantanamo Bay prison" (and) "Endorses racial and religious profiling, specifically of American Muslims and young men, in order to enhance security at airports."

But CAIR in a news release saves its most pointed criticism for Newt Gingrich, calling him "one of the worst promoters of anti-Muslim bigotry." CAIR spokesman Corey Sayolar said that this was in response to Gingrich's comment that he would only hire Muslims in his administration if they renounced Sharia as a tool for American government.

In January 2012, the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down an Oklahoma ban on the application of "Sharia law" and "international law" in courts. Any further attempts to raise this issue in order to get votes from a fearful and ill-informed electorate will hopefully be dealt with in similar fashion by the courts. It may not be enough however, to prevent candidates from raising the Sharia law issue as a divisive wedge in their campaigns if they think it will serve their purpose.

Other ugly incidents, like the fundamentalist pastor who wanted to publicly burn a copy of the Koran, controversy over the siting of the Moslem Community Center in downtown Manhattan and anti-Sharia law initiatives, have only encouraged the bigotry of some TV commentators and media spokespeople. It can be argued that this sort of anti-Muslim rhetoric, while hardening the fanatics on the right, will end up alienating most moderate thinkers in the electorate. In recent races where xenophobic rhetoric and fear mongering was used to get votes, it turned out that it was the amount of money spent on a race, not the rhetoric that determined the outcome. It is considered unlikely that these tactics will work in a presidential election when substantial turnout means that the hard right base will not have a disproportionate influence.

There appears to be an inherent conflict for most Muslims when choosing sides. Conservative Republicans are more likely to be anti Muslim, as most of the Republican presidential candidates have proved. But the conservative nature of the Republican party appeals to many similarly conservative Muslims, giving them a limited field to choose from.

So who will these Muslims vote for this year in the Republican presidential primary?

Ron Paul is the one Republican candidate who may get support from Muslims who see his libertarian philosophy as similar to their ideology. His position on foreign policy appeals as he wants the US to immediately stop its military involvement in the Middle East, repeal the Patriot Act and limit funding to Israel.

Zahra Siddiqui, a political science major at the University of Illinois, said recently, "Ron Paul knows how to differentiate between Muslims and terrorists, and he would never sacrifice any citizen's liberties over security."

But Brian Gaines, a political science professor specializing in voting behavior and elections at the University of Illinois, notes that generally Muslims in America today do not vote like other religious groups.

"Muslims are unique in that the more religious they are, the more Democratic they tend to vote," said Gaines.

This is possibly because Muslims who attend mosques regularly are more likely to also be community minded, socially active and aware, as well as being conservative and religious. Gaines says it is unlikely that Obama would lose votes from this population to a Republican candidate.

Muslims in the U.S. haven't always leaned Democratic. Before 9/11 many Muslim-Americans were Republican voters but the way they were treated by the Bush administration and the rise of anti-Muslim feeling in the country helped to change their attitude. 55 percent of Muslim-Americans say it has become more difficult in live in the United States since the 9/11 attacks, according to the 2011 Pew Research Center findings.

A recent poll showed that 76 percent of Muslims in America approve of Obama's performance. His moderate voice in Middle East politics, his support for an end to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and his response to calls for change and democracy with the Arab Spring movement have all gained him support from Muslim Americans. But there remains a sense of wariness as anti-Muslim sentiment continues and Obama's opposition to the Palestinian effort to have their statehood recognized by the United Nations disappointed many and contributes to political caution.

But for the vast majority of the electorate, the economy trumps most other issues. Candidates who continue to raise anti-Muslim fears should be seen as irrelevant distractions from the real problems of the economy, jobs, civil rights, education and health care. With Ron Paul not considered a viable presidential candidate for the Republic party, Muslim voters, as they were in the last election, don't seem to be spoilt for choice. It seems for many the best bet would be to give President Obama four more years to fulfill those early promises.

Dr Azeem Ibrahim is an Adjunct Research Professor at the US Army War College, Lecturer at the University of Chicago, Fellow and Member of the Board of Directors at the Institute of Social Policy and Understanding and a former Research Scholar at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and World Fellow at Yale. He obtained his PhD from Cambridge University.

More writings here: www.azeemibrahim.com

 

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02:05 AM on 03/26/2012
You should check out MuslimRepublicans.net very interesting profiles of the GOP candidates.
04:38 AM on 02/10/2012
CAIR doesn't represent all the Muslims. They are in tittle of their opinion. Our next president SHOULDN'T hire someone based on their religion but on getting THE JOB DONE. Our constitution states freedom of religion. As the Quran say there is no compulsion in religion. Faith is between individual and God. God doesn't fit in the universe but it fits in people's heart. We should try to exceed on doing good deeds. If someone comes and ask you for basic needs do you ask what religion do they practice or do you help them? I hope you help them.God is the ultimate Judge. Lets not judge each other on our religion but on good deeds. We are countable for our action and reaction. All the Messengers of God message is to believe in Oneness of God and serve humanity the best way we can. THEY are great role model for us; hopefully follow.Respect for all. The day I leave this earth I can't take my wealth with me it was lend to me to see how well I will spend it. Quran 2:62 (Asad) VERILY, those who have attained to faith [in this divine writ], as well as those who follow the Jewish faith, and the Christians, and the Sabians [49] -all who believe in God and the Last Day and do righteous deeds-shall have their reward with their Sustainer; and no fear need they have, and neither shall they grieve. [50]Amen
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09:17 AM on 02/06/2012
I do wish that CAIR wasn't constantly cited as the be-all end-all voice for Muslims in the US. According to at least one Gallup poll, the majority aren't on board with them:

http://www.allahcentric.com/2011/08/02/gallup-poll-majority-of-american-muslims-have-dismal-views-of-national-muslim-organizations-like-isna-icna-cair-mas-and-mpac/

I also find a disconnect between the narrative we've been given by this site about US Muslims not wanting Sharia and this part of the article:

"(Newt Gingrich is) one of the worst promoters of anti-Muslim bigotry." CAIR spokesman Corey Sayolar said that this was in response to Gingrich's comment that he would only hire Muslims in his administration if they renounced Sharia as a tool for American government. "

As much as I dislike Newt, what's wrong with that? He says that he, in fact, would hire Muslims in his cabinet, with the only condition being that they "renounce Sharia as a tool for American government". Isn't that something US Muslims don't want anyway?
04:12 PM on 02/05/2012
"Muslim-Americans were Republican voters but the way they were treated by the Bush administration and the rise of anti-Muslim feeling in the country helped to change their attitude...

Their was much less overt persecution in the US against Muslims than i in Muslim dominated countries today against "the others".

Muslims should be GOP allies as values voters, but may feel like the protection of hate crime laws democrats have given them. The hard right fundamentalists are not representative of most evangelicals or tea party factions. In non bigotry we should not lump all people together based on their more radical components. I believe that is what the Bush administration said that after 9/11.

America is more tolerant today than when they ran the native Americans and the Mormons out of the country resulting in over 4,000 deaths by privation on the Trail of Years, and near 6,000 on the Mormontrail

Mormons are tolerant of other religions and beliefs generally, as in their 11th article of faith on lds.org, "letting others worship how, when and what they may and claiming the same privilege."

Interesting to see how Muslims will regard Romney as the eventual GOP candidate. Note the tone of the GOP Mormon dislikers, then consider that Mormons are not privileged with hate crime protection as other minority groups, since the US says they are mainstreamed. Are they? This electionast we look deep into our own hearts and minds.
04:00 PM on 02/03/2012
I think many of the major "conservative" issues represented by the Republican party (abortion, birth control, stem cell research, Christian civil religion, anti-immigration) are not shared within the Muslim community (which largely allows abortion, birth control, and stem cell research).

Many important issues within Islam (dress code, prohibition of drugs/alcohol, gender relationships, prohibiting usury) simply aren't discussed at all in the West, whereas on most remaining issues (education, poverty, welfare, foreign policy, human rights) Islam is closer to the Democrats' ideas. Perhaps one of the few issues that Muslims and Republican social ideals agree on is capital punishment.

But, of course, everyone has their own interpretation of Islam- that's just mine. :)
02:12 AM on 02/26/2012
You are correct on the hot issues that seem to dominate this years elections. Unlike the Christian right and the Bible per se, Islam allows abortion to save the life of the mother as well as rape and incest cases. Many Hadiths argue the the soul is not placed into the body until several months after conception and some jurists allow abortion up to that point but frown upon it as a method of birth control. As far as birth control is concerned- most married Muslim women use the pill to space children or to stop having more. Stem cell research seems to be halal. In that sense Muslims are more in tune with the Democrats. Other Islamic concerns just like kosher concerns for Jews are personal. Of course the GOP policy of going to war with as many Islamic countries as possible does not go over very well. Cutting education and social entitlements are not in tune with most Muslims, even though most in the US are not on welfare or food stamps and are better educated and pay more taxes than the average American. All in all I think most American Muslims are supporters of Obama.......especially hearing the vile hate and bigotry coming from right wing AM radio, blogs, so-called pundits, and of course the GOP candidates themselves.
03:41 PM on 02/02/2012
Over 60% support terror or refuse to do anything about it, I say let none of them vote unless they denounce Sharia in any form
03:41 PM on 02/03/2012
Sharia includes nothing about "terror." How would that help?
02:18 AM on 02/26/2012
Our Constitution allows any citizen over the age of 18 to vote. There some restrictions on convicted felons. There are plenty of people Christians, Jews and other faiths that have their own beliefs about law and morality, however the US Constitution is the supreme law of the land all other systems are not included. The Sharia Law paranoids do not seem to believe or have much faith in our laws but rather feel they must ban other ideas.
07:06 AM on 02/02/2012
If Ron Paul does become the GOP nominee or decides to run 3rd party, then I expect that the majority of the Muslim electorate will cast their votes for him.

It is a religious obligation for Muslims to choose the least of all evils and in this regard, Dr. Ron Paul easily trumps any of the other candidates including Obama.
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Ascare26
Swing Life Away
04:28 AM on 02/02/2012
I don't know who they will vote for but I think its in their best interest to vote for Obama, obviously.
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Vlad Roudenko
07:07 PM on 02/02/2012
Why would that be in our best interest? He ordered a murder of two American Muslims by the means of drone strike. He keeps ordering strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He is responsible for aiding in destruction of Libya and murdering thousands of innocent people there. Ron Paul seems a lot more attractive than Obama as far as candidates go.
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Ascare26
Swing Life Away
08:52 PM on 02/02/2012
Ya but Ron Paul will never get elected against Obama- he's too radical. You're basically looking at Obama or Romney or Gingrich, and Obama is much more against war than the two of those guys. He is also much more tolerant and doesn't sympathize with many of the intolerant listeners of the tea party.
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sallybutt45
To thine own self be true.
03:57 AM on 02/02/2012
They will vote to re-elect Obama, because as bad as things are for them, it could get a lot worse. The sad thing is that they have been painted with a broad brush, by ignorant people, as being Islamic extremists. They have experienced such unfair and ugly treatment because of people like Geller, Spencer, Gaffney, etc and Faux who fuels the fire with their outrageous exploitation of any incident that can be used to enflame an already anti-Muslim sentiment of it's audience, who unfortunately can't think for themselves.
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Ascare26
Swing Life Away
04:29 AM on 02/02/2012
Agreed. I don't think the republican party (and especially the Tea Party) is very sensitive to them being incorporated in politics.
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Zeta
02:27 AM on 02/02/2012
Maybe Keith Ellison will run for president in 2016.
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Sam Damon
Do or do not, there is no try.
07:51 PM on 02/01/2012
If they want to have a job I recommend the Republicans.
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Allison Knight-Khan
Love 4 All, Hatred 4 None
07:32 PM on 02/01/2012
I know for certain that I am not voting for Newt Gingrich. He is from Marietta, Georgia and his statement in the local paper, the MDJonline.com, July 13/11, states that he will not hire any Muslims in the government.

I like Mr. Obama, but I am very disappointed that he did not make good on his promise to close Guantanamo.
12:24 AM on 02/02/2012
I dont blame him at all. I dont hire Muslims either. Why dont you check with Hertz in Wash. They are nothing but problems. In Dearborn MI they stop work and pray 5 times a day. Who needs this? Give Newt credit where its due. My son lives in Acworth GA
Obama made plenty of promises which were not kept. Why do you want Guantanamo closed? Do you want those criminals on US soil??
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Ascare26
Swing Life Away
04:35 AM on 02/02/2012
Isn't that illegal? To not hire someone based on religion? I think that is extremely unethical and morally wrong.

Also, no politician keeps all promises, its silly to think that. Newt or Romney wouldn't either.
03:44 PM on 02/03/2012
Not all Muslims pray 5 times a day (unfortunately). Nonetheless, there's nothing preventing them from praying in shifts, or one after another, and therefore leaving someone to cover the store where they work. Though preferable to pray in the mosque, and soon after the call to prayer, there's still a large window in which the prayer in accepted.
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happyblackman
Gotta have more cowbell baby!
07:06 PM on 02/01/2012
It has been my experience, living in Michigan, that the slight majority of voting Muslims vote Republican. Former Senator Spencer Abraham was a Muslim, but most people thought he was Jewish because of his last name. With all of the Sharia law nonsense, and other anti-Muslim rhetoric, I think you might see a change in voting preference to Democrats. Even though no one is openly courting their vote.
09:55 PM on 02/01/2012
Senator Abraham is Lebanese but he is not Muslim; he is a Maronite Catholic.
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04:55 PM on 02/01/2012
A textbook example of black/white discourse—“You are either with us or against us”. Every issue is cast as Muslims against anti Muslims, two monolithic forces opposed on every particular. Criticize Islam and you are cast into the anti Muslim camp.

In the real world, not one issue mentioned here is seen in the same way by all American Muslims. Not one candidate that criticizes Islam sees all American Muslims as monolithically good or bad. And yet Dr. Ibrahim speaks of Muslims and anti Muslims. This is the style of the Soviets with their polarizing communist/capitalist discourse—with us or against us. It says more about the author’s views than anything else.

Dr. Ibrahim clearly agrees with CAIR's view that all critics of Islam are anti Muslim. The only candidates that are spared that label are candidates who never, ever criticize Islam for anything--and even uncritical President Obama is not sufficiently supportive of Palestinian statehood.

High expectations, indeed.
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Abdul-Halim Vazquez
05:24 PM on 02/01/2012
A textbook example of black/whit­e discourse—­“You are either with us or against us”. Every issue is cast as Muslims against anti Muslims, two monolithic forces opposed on every particular­. Criticize Islam and you are cast into the anti Muslim camp.

-----------------------

Which article did YOU read?
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Freenation
01:53 AM on 02/02/2012
He is a Geert wannabe who only appears and comments when there is some article about islam..,
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08:54 AM on 02/02/2012
I wonder why you didn't use examples from the article that contradict my statements.

I'll wait.
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Hoodooman
Non-Aggression Principle
04:48 PM on 02/01/2012
It's seems to me that Ron Paul would be the right choice, since he is for individual rights, and not the rights of a collective. Would you rather be treated as an individual, or a collective?
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07:07 PM on 02/01/2012
Ron Paul doesn't think too highly of anti-discrimination laws or establishment laws. If you're one of the most disliked minorities in the nation, might want to avoid that platform.
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Hoodooman
Non-Aggression Principle
07:42 PM on 02/01/2012
Here's a link to section VII;

http://www.eeoc.gov/laws/statutes/titlevii.cfm