Obama's Sort Of Audacious Southern Strategy

Barack Obama's "Southern Strategy" based on expected "historic turnout in the African-American community" has come under scrutiny recently, setting off a new round of debate on the matter in the blogosphere.

Obama's plan includes going after states such as Georgia, where there are a reported 600,000 unregistered African-Americans, as well as wooing the increasing number of relocated white northerners and younger professionals throughout the south who tend to vote more Democratic than native-born white southerners. Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) recently won his seat in large part due to the votes of more liberal voters in Northern Virginia.

Political scientist Tom Schaller kicked off the online debate with an op-ed in the New York Times detailing the incredible odds Obama faces in winning any southern state other than Virginia. Schaller, an associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland and author of Whistling Past Dixie: How the Democrats Can Win Without the South, wrote:

The first myth is that African-American turnout in the South is low. Black voters are actually well represented in the Southern electorate: In the 11 states of the former Confederacy, African-Americans were 17.9 percent of the age-eligible population and 17.9 percent of actual voters in 2004, analysis of Census Bureau data shows.

Nate Silver at fivethirteight posted some very good current data to show strong leads for McCain in the South.

Not everyone was convinced by Schaller's math. Patrick Ottenhoff of thelectoralmap thinks that Schaller overlooks qualitative factors developing in the south and relies too much on data from previous election cycles. Ottenhoff points to the election of Democrat Travis Childers in the Mississippi Special Election held this spring.

By relying solely on numbers, we tie arguments solely to the past and ignore the events in the present or the landscape of the future...How can you explain the recent election in Mississippi's First, where Democrat Travis Childers won in a district that is 26 percent black?

Joe Windish, writing at The Moderate Voice, echoes Ottenhoff in holding that the numbers can only reveal so much:

Schaller's other main argument is that Obama will not win the South because of the white vote. He points out that the more African-Americans the more whites tend to vote Republican. This idea has held up pretty well around the blogosphere and by decades of data.

Jonathan Martin at Politico agrees with Schaller on this point and noted that this idea is a half-century old:

It's not a coincidence that Virginia, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas have the fewest blacks in the historic states of the Confederacy and still retain a healthy two-party system or prosperous Democratic party.

Stacy McCain notes that this trend is not unique to the South, but rather occurs nationwide and even applies within the Democratic party. A NYT Magazine piece from March argues that in states with larger black populations, the whites tended to vote in larger percentages for Hillary Clinton.

Although it has always been an audacious idea, Obama's winning Dixie, James Joyner of OutsideTheBeltway makes the larger less audacious case for the strategy when he writes:

Campaigning in such a way as to give himself a chance -- or to make McCain spend money -- in the South will likely help him in other states as well.

Comments

[Trogenhorse]

I think people don't give the south the credit it deserves. In the south, people are a lot more approachable than one might think. They are honest about what they don't want.

The bigotry the south is labled with is not just present in the south. In fact, I think if Obama is given a chance by the people in NC,GA, Va. he has a shot.

Frankly, there are a lot of good old boys and girls who may fool people by seeing Obama as a real choice and vote for him

[BEHM777]

I get the feeling that many republicans would rather Senator Obama not make a credible attempt to win in the South (for obvious reasons). That would be a major tactical mistake. I happen to believe that nothing beats a failure but a try, so why not give it a real shot? I think he has a real shot in Georgia, North Carolina and Florida and I will be SHOCKED if he doesn't carry Virginia by at least 8 points.

[SeanGardner]

Obama is going to win 6 Southern States this year:

(1) Viginia - This is more of a Purple State, than a Red State. Plus, because Obama is going to pick Jim Webb as his VP, this is a slam dunk.

(2) North Carolina - The likely loss of Sen. Elizabeth Dole this fall portends what's coming. Obama wins this state.

(3) Georgia - Some 700,000 African-Americans in this state didn't vote in 2004. Obama's campaign has aggressively courted them. Plus, former Georgia Republican Bob Barr will take lots of votes from John McCain and allow Obama to take this state.

(4) Missouri - This is considered a bellweather state, so it helps Obama's cause to have the popular Senator Claire McCaskill on his team.

(5) Mississippi - This is considered a question mark for some, but not for me. This state is 40% black, and from what I'm hearing on the ground there, the black vote is more pumped up and inspired as people have ever seen it.

(6) Florida - According to reports, 600,000 African-Americans aren't registered in the state, and another 500,000 African-American stayed home in 2004. That's 1.1 million blacks who could have swayed the election to Kerry. Those voters will not stay home this time.

Trust me, he will win these states.

[SeanGardner]

Interesting piece.

The best point against Tom Schaller is the election of Travis Childers, who got elected in a Republican District because the Black vote was enormously energized. In fact, for years now, Mississippi has had some quietly successful voter registration with African-Americans, and this election with Barack Obama could be the impetus for something amazing.

Tom Schaller wrote a book called "Whisling Past Dixie" which posits that Democrats can win the White House with states in the North East and the West, allowing them to bypass the South. So I doubt he is going to support the notion that Obama can win in the deep south, because that would invalidate his premise.

Obama is going to surprise a lot of political pundits who continue to underestimate his ability.