What Happened in Virginia?
For those of you following the 2009 elections, I don't have to tell you that Virginia -- one year after voting Democratic for President for the first time since 1964 -- is about to sweep our most conservative Republican ticket in history to victory today. What you might find useful though is why -- and how you can prevent something similar from happening in your state in 2010.
Some have compared this years election to the 1993 election that served as a preview for what would happen in 1994. I actually think things are a little bit worse. In the 1992 election, senior citizens were one of the best voting blocks for Bill Clinton- and of course seniors have excellent voting patterns and represent a larger share of the electorate in low turnout mid term elections. That helped save a number of Democrats in 1994- like Lawton Chiles in the Florida Governor's race. But in 2008, seniors were one of the groups that Barack Obama struggled in.
The strongest groups for Democrats in 2008 were voters under the age of 30 and minority voters. Also known as the two groups whose participation historically falls in midterm elections. In Virginia this year one poll showed the percentage of the likely electorate under the age of 30 falling 70% from 2008- and the African American share of the vote falling 39% from 2008! That's why virtually every poll has shown today's likely electorate as having voted for John McCain by double digits over Barack Obama in Virginia last year- despite Virginia having voted almost exactly the reverse.
Unfortunately for us, the Deeds campaign freaked out and read these polls wrong over the summer. Instead of attempting to energize more young and minority voters to the polls to make the electorate more representative of Virginia- they began running a campaign targeted to the people already planning to vote. Creigh began bashing federal Democratic priorities like Cap and Trade and Health Care Reform to appeal to the conservatives that were headed to the polls.
And every time he did it -- polls indicated turnout shriveled even further among Democrats and progressive voters -- and made the electorate even more older, whiter and more conservative. To which Creigh responded to by bashing federal Democrats more- which resulted in even more progressives becoming disengaged. Over and over the cycle continued. Over the last six weeks, PPP polls indicated the share of the electorate that identified as Democrats declined from 38% to 31%. In other words almost one out of every five self identified Democrats planning to vote on Labor Day looked at Creigh Deeds and his conservative message since then and decided they weren't voting. Ouch!
The people feeling this voter depression most are Democrats running downballot from Creigh for Lt. Governor, Attorney General and the House of Delegates. When an upballot candidate loses because Independents break against them -- downballot candidates still have a chance by winning those Independent voters back to vote for them. But when an upballot candidate depresses the base and changes the composition of the electorate, there is nothing a downballot candidate can do. Which is the major reason why Republicans will sweep all three statewide offices today and make major gains in the House of Delegates- baring a last minute miracle.
The lesson for candidates in 2010 is clear: do not depress your base when our electorate is already far less likely to vote than Republicans to begin with. Successful candidates in 2010 will find a way to engage young voters and minority voters so they come back to the polls- and AFTER they do that, work on winning over enough Independents to win.
If this election serves as a reminder that pandering to right wingers is not a successful electoral strategy -- then Creigh Deeds will have done even more good for Democrats than if he had won the Governorship today.
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Easily the worst run and managed campaign in recent history. I agree with the post and the comments so far.
There are lessons to be learned here. Anyone who thought that a "Blue Dog" Governor could clothe himself as a progressive by pandering to social issues....but never being comfortable in the progressive mode so much so that he distanced himself from his base even as he tried to embrace it ...was totally off-base.
It mirrors too much what is happening nationally: schizophrenic Democrats paralyzed like deer in the headlights...
This campaign was a complete failure. Top to bottom. 4 years ago, Deed vs McDonnell and loses by 300 votes. This time around, McDonnell wins by like 30,000. With 4 years to prepare, its obvious McDonnell did his homework and Deeds didn't.
The problem in Virginia was that Deeds was a horrible candidate and ran a terrible campaign.
Reading anything more into this isn't useful.
Dems need to run as dems, not as Republican-lite. Congressional Dems need to get to work and get Health Care Reform finished and begin tackling the next issue.
If they do their jobs, they have nothing to worry about.
But if politicians start to worry about 2009 polls and their re-election, and decide to do nothing in 2010, then Republicans will make significant gains.
What happened is that the Democrats ran a rural candidate from southern Virginia and voters in Northern Virginia were concerned about his loyalties and whether he would really help out with the issues that concern them -- mainly transportation. Northern Virginians are tired of providing most of the state's revenue but getting little back in funds from Richmond. McDonnell portrayed himself as a lifelong Northern Virginian (lifelong defined as from birth to age two but kudos to him, he pulled it off).
If Democrats want VA to be blue, they need to focus on the counties that used to be rural but are now suburban (Loudoun, Prince William, increasingly Fauquier). These places are still more conservative than Fairfax or Arlington but increasingly share quality of life issues like traffic, education, etc. This race was between a conservative suburban candidate and a conservative rural candidate and the suburbs won.
In any case, Virginia limits its governors to one term. If the economy and traffic don't improve in the next four years, the Republicans will be out on their ear next time!
I live in rural Virginia and I urge you not to stereotype us, which you so gladly did. Deeds ran a bad campaign EVERYWHERE. In fact, the second he said he would opt Virginia out of a "opt out" public option, there were grumbles of "how is he different from Bob McDonnell, exactly?" Not only that, he did awful with the people on the ground. Volunteers weren't contacted back and my mother and I both wanted to campaign for him. I wanted to canvass; she wanted to phone bank. I volunteered. Never heard anything. Joined his facebook, was approached to sign up again. I did so. Never heard anything. My mother had to contact Tom Perriello's office to get a number to Creigh's WASHINGTON office because our local office manager had no phone number listed. How does that work? Finally, she said forget it.
Where I donated as much as I could to Obama, I didn't donate a dime to Deeds. I figured if they were this disorganized, how the heck could I trust them with my money? Even $10.
Also, as a person of color, I felt Deeds pandered to us. Believe it or not, I believe a lot of people of color appreciate people working with us to solve problems, but not so much to empty pandering.
What happened in VA ? Four years of Tim Kaine.... http://www.wisecountyissues.com
What happened in Virginia? A Conservative, who portrayed himself as a moderate so well his Conservative friends said they did not recognize this man, lied his way into office.
Virgina deserves what it voted for. (My apologies to those who were smart enough not to be taken in.)
REAL Democrats like Senator Webb support the Second Amendment and gun rights generally. When they stray they lose.
Deeds generally has supported gun rights. He was endorsed by the NRA in the past. He supported closing the gun show loophole, but aside from that...
There is no gun show loophole. There are private sales between individuals. You either support private gun sales between individuals or you don't.
The Republicans should not read too much into Virginia. People were again faced with two non choices and vented a little anger at Dems. However, this does not endorse the Reps who have no backbone and have consistently sold out principles. Instead the Republicans need to take a hard look at themselves and decide if their principles really include dictating private behavior or if they believe in freedom of choice. If the Reps continue to insist they are the party of dictating our personal lives, the masses will reject the message. If the Dems continue to insist they are the party of dictating our financial lives, the masses will reject the message. To both, how about some thoughts about letting people choose for themselves?
America is not, and never has been, a conservative nation.
It was founded on liberal values, and has always prospered when it abides them (and withers when it doesn't).
Sadly, our body politic doesn't get it. They still buy the big lies of the far right.
Don't buy the right vs the left. Go take the worlds smallest political quiz for yourself and see if you might think there are added dimensions.
http://www.theadvocates.org/quizp/index.html
Count me among the depressed base in Virginia that couldn't care less. I was very excited about Deeds during the primaries, but the further along he went after securing the nomination, and the more he distanced himself from Obama and from the left, the less excited I became. Saying that he would opt out of the public option if he were governor was the last straw. I had promised to make phone calls for the local Democratic campaign, as I had for Obama, but after that I backed out.
I'll vote if I get a chance (I have to work late), but frankly, this is likely to be the first time in more than 30 years that I will not be voting in a statewide or national election.
The people in the Virgina is going to be very sorry!!
I'm looking for a "Don't Blame Me -- I Didn't Vote for McDonnell" bumper sticker for just such an occasion.
I'm going to need one of those too! Whoever starts making those bumper stickers will be quite wealthy in a year or so.
Sign me up for one.
But they have been before...look at George Allen and Jim Gilmore.
McDonnell and Cucchinelli are both throwbacks, with Cucchinelli being one scary Mofo.
Virginia will be happy to see them go in four years.
The Dem candidate didn't offer any real difference and was less charismatic. It's not enough to be against somebody; campaigns have to give people a reason to be FOR somebody.
Here is hoping that all federal funds for Virginia and Virginians is cut off and they suffer sorse than any American Generation ever has or will.
LOL. I love it. GOP by double digits in VA today. Nice. Very nice.
I didn't know the polls to vote closed already anyone can promise things if the Republican wins in Virginia i can't wait to see all the jobs he creates for the good people of Virginia he is just another party of no reject, just remember Virginians i told you so if your stuck with this guy!
RIght on. Democrats need to stop stabbing the progressives in the back, and instead give the progressives what they want.
Starting with Obama. I knew it was bad when he invited Rick Warren to the inauguration. What a loser move.
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