A Plan for Dealing with Hezbollah

Mr. Zogby is the son of John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International, a world-renowned public opinion research firm based in Utica, New York. Ben Zogby recently returned from Beirut, Lebanon, where he was a Rotary Scholar studying Middle East Studies and Arabic at the American University of Beirut when the conflict between Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon broke out. He escaped into Syria and Jordan, eventually flying home to New York.

Since the Bush Administration and the US Congress have divested all responsibility in solving the currently devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah on Lebanese soil, the world eagerly awaits the announcement of British PM Tony Blair's plan to end the hostilities. But Blair need not look so far and long, for he can find a ceasefire plan that has historical precedent in the resolution of the conflict between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, some 8 years ago.

Though there are expansive differences in the ideology and objectives of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) and Hezbollah, the two armed-militant organizations share a common history by way of tactics: both groups launched mortar and rocket attacks, engaged in kidnappings of soldiers and operated over the years within the bounds of a country not directly linked to the campaigns of aggression. Lebanon has been Hezbollah's nest and for the IRA, the Republic of Ireland was the same. To eliminate this phenomenon in Lebanon Blair should move to establish an independent commission much along the same lines as that of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD), which had as its task overseeing the relinquishment of weapons and arms by the PIRA.

Naturally, an independent commission dealing with Hezbollah on the same matters will fall on deaf ears, unless it is backed with the muscle of a UN Security Council Resolution and at the same time provides the militant Shiite group some carrots. These carrots are easy to identify: First there must be a prisoner swap calling for the return of the two Israeli soldiers in exchange for the 3 Lebanese citizens held in Israeli prisons; next should be a phased plan for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Shebaa Farms in Southern Lebanon. This piece of the puzzle should encompass an immediate Syrian-Lebanese diplomatic exchange that deals with the clear and permanent delineation of the two nations' borders. Aside from unraveling the overt political cover that is provided for Hezbollah's arms, the objective of border delineation will allow Syria to focus on jumpstarting long overdue negotiations with Israel about ending the occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Most important to Lebanon's internal political situation, such a commission must address the thorny issue of lack of adequate representation of the politically disenfranchised Shi'a community. Already on the drawing board-in this year's Parliamentary session and discussed as an essential measure in the Taif Accords of 1989-was a legislative measure that called for the establishment of a bichameral legislative body; one to continue along confessional lines, while the upper chamber to be comprised of representatives elected on a one-man, one-vote basis. Quite simply this will bring the Shi'a into the political fray, both the citizens and their current leaders, thus extending the sovereignty of the Lebanese government throughout the entire country. As this is the case, the current ballgame in which any one member of the Lebanese Prime Minister's cabinet can thwart implementation of the law and policies should be eliminated so that the cabinet operate in a majoritarian system. Nevertheless, the cabinet should closely resemble the current demographic realities, which by accepted figures translates into nearly 40% Shi'a in Lebanon. All of these issues can be addressed under the auspices of newly designated rounds of Lebanon's "National Dialogue."

On the American front, no such international brokerage can be implemented without countenancing political realities here. Therefore, so that the US may save face and deal a firm hand in this equation, the UN security council resolution attached to the international commission should bind all parties to such an arrangement. This can be guaranteed by imposing a time frame for the implementation of all provisions, and if they are not reached within a certain phase, the US should act to cut the $35 million in economic support funds funneled through NGOs to Lebanon each year. But the judgement of implemenation of the plan shall reside in the discretion of the international commission; a commission made up of representatives of all interested parties. These should include one independent observer, an Israeli official, a Lebanese official and a Syrian official. All of this has precedent in the ICID mentioned above and empowered by the Irish and British governments.

Away from the official arena of US involvement and more on the grassroots level, Lebanese and Arab Americans should become actively involved by flooding city councils and state legislatures to call for an immediate ceasefire along the lines described above. Eventually, the force of such organizing should result in city level ordinances and statewide legislation denouncing the current events in Lebanon, which can be used as a snowball effect to be presented by community leaders before members of Congress. The diaspora communities can and must provide a model for democratic activism here in America just as the Good Friday Agreement of 8 years ago reached between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland should serve as a paragon for ending the overwhelming loss of civilians and infrastructure faced on all sides of this current coflict. In fact, if Blair were to act quickly the announcement of his plan could come on the 14 month anniversary of the PIRA's decision to cease all methods of violent conduct. He may also wish to recommend a seasoned diplomat such as former US Senator George Mitchell, the official chosen by Clinton to oversee the Irish talks 8 years back. With this experience and his Lebanese and Irish descent, he would make a perfect candidate for Blair's plan.