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Bernie Bulkin

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Can Science Save the Planet?

Posted: 01/ 6/2012 8:34 am

The power world is dominated by coal, gas and nuclear, with some large hydropower in selected spots. Most people believe that it is likely to stay that way for some time. But there are more and more stirrings of a science-driven revolution, a transformation in how we generate our power. There is something deeply unpopular about each of our current big sources of electricity, nothing that has in any way upset society's love of electricity, but just the way we get it.

OK, I accept that for most people the way we get our electricity is by flipping a switch, and it is very much an 'out of sight, out of mind' provision. Still, if you are living in a big Chinese city, (and there are a lot of them), even if you can't see the power plant you can certainly see the air, and that ain't good. And even if you are pretty oblivious to concerns about climate change, you might at least have heard about Russia cutting off winter supplies of gas to some of its neighbors in disputes over prices. Or heard a lot of confusing and contradictory rhetoric around the desirability of new nuclear power plants. More about the science behind that another time.

Now in this world of claim and counterclaim, it is interesting to see just how change has occurred in some places. In 2008 wind power (onshore) in Spain generated more electricity than coal for the first time, though still behind gas and nuclear. In 2009, there were many days when wind was the leading generator of power in Spain. And given a reasonable regulatory regime, the levelized cost of onshore wind power is as low as that for gas, and cheaper than everything else. So I think we have arrived at a point, at least for onshore wind, where a second form of renewable energy has taken its place among the big generators. Moreover, it is less geographically specific than large hydro.

I make this point in part to split apart the mass of technologies that are called 'renewables', because they are very different. Some are commercial on utility scale and able to compete reasonably well at wholesale prices, others are very far from that. Some are amenable to use at small scale (for example rooftop solar PV or solar hot water) and others are only sensible at megawatts and above. Some of these technologies need scientific breakthroughs (which will almost certainly happen) to get to commercial competitiveness, while others can only drive down costs based on better engineering and manufacturing.

I want to pick this apart with some examples. The cost of the active module of solar photovoltaics has been falling rapidly. This is a combination of exploitation of research in materials science over the past 30 years, and application of manufacturing techniques, much of them learned from the semiconductor industry. And this is not incremental improvement. Rather costs have fallen by as much as 75% in just a few years. Of course the active PV material is just a part of the finished generating kit, so the levelized cost of power from solar PV has not fallen as quickly. Nonetheless, when your most costly component drops in this way, it gives impetus, motivation, for getting the costs of everything else down. And this will happen, and I believe happen quickly, over the coming three-five years. So solar PV is science driven, and manufacturing enabled. We are not finished with the scientific progress either. There are results just coming out of the leading nanotechnology laboratories, outcomes of research over the past decade, that promise another step change of lower cost and higher efficiency for PV.

These nanotechnology developments are also important for lighting. Solar power is light in and electricity out. LED lighting is electricity in and light out. The same devices, or very nearly, can do both. It seems clear to me that in a decade or less all of our lighting will come from LEDs, and most of these will be the products of our basic materials science investment in nanotechnology and nanofabrication.

Another area where science promises to play a leading role is next generation biofuels, biochemicals, and biomaterials. This is the third wave of biotech, following from pharmaceuticals and agriculture. It promises to take us way beyond ethanol derived from corn or sugar cane. And in so doing has the ultimate promise of addressing our energy challenges and the problem of accumulation of waste from urban societies. We must reduce the volume of waste, but to the extent that the waste we do generate can be feedstock for our energy needs, that is a good outcome. Bioscience holds the promise of making that outcome a reality.
Biofuels are not a risk free area. When energy crops are involved, we of course have to price in the risks of disease, weather, and the fickleness of nature in to our energy costs. And the science here is still developing -- yes there are commercial products making their way to market, but we still have a decade of development ahead of us. I know many people think of any kind of biofuels as competing with food for scarce land resources. But in the last year I have been listening to a lot of scientists who work on agricultural productivity, and they all have the same message: We can develop plants that double the production from the same land area, with little or no increase in fertilizer demand. If so why haven't you done this already? Because there just has not been the demand for it.

But why concentrate just on fuels? Chemicals and materials require volumes with higher values, and there is a big effort to make more of these from biological feedstocks rather than petrochemical ones. A good mantra here is to use biology to make things that are hard to make by chemistry.

So if solar PV and biofuels/biomaterials are science driven renewables, what are the engineering/manufacturing driven ones? Wind, wave, tidal (tidal stream and tidal range), 'utility scale' solar thermal. This is rotating machinery, deployed in sometimes difficult conditions, but it is all about engineering rather than science. And that means cost reductions will be eked out over years of experience, rather than step changes resulting from new science.

Some doubt the value of encouraging this sort of revolution to occur, and worry about increasing the cost of electricity. I don't. We have the opportunity to accomplish several desirable goals -- reduce greenhouse gas emissions, eliminate fuel price volatility, increase the diversity of our energy supply and improve energy security, and create new manufacturing jobs -- while we create the energy infrastructure for the 21st century. Push the science, refine the manufacturing, deploy at scale that which is ready, and set high standards for the next generation of technologies. It's as simple and as difficult as that.

 
The power world is dominated by coal, gas and nuclear, with some large hydropower in selected spots. Most people believe that it is likely to stay that way for some time. But there are more and more ...
The power world is dominated by coal, gas and nuclear, with some large hydropower in selected spots. Most people believe that it is likely to stay that way for some time. But there are more and more ...
 
 
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03:07 PM on 01/10/2012
the fossil fuel fasc*ists have had a monopoly on energy in this country for the past 120 years....and they have been specifically blocking green energy development for the past 60 years....."competition is a sin"....john d rockefeller....king of the drill baby drillers......the FFF must be stopped....
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
11:23 PM on 01/09/2012
Yes, Science has provided the solutions to our energy problems.

Specifically:

Efficiency, wind and waste bio char bio fuels, and rooftop solar.

This combination is several times the worlds energy and fuel needs, forever, 24/7 using the existing fossil infrastructure with clean bio fuels, and faster to replace nukes coal and oil than to build one nuclear power plant.

This combination has NO technical barriers. No storage, that is done by waste bio char bio fuels. Zero land use for offshore wind and rooftop solar, and negative dump land for waste bio char.

We do need to cut our oil use by 90% by using 50 mile range commuter plug in hybrids, so waste bio char fuels can supply the rest.

For the first time in history, solar wind and waste can supply all the energy we need. NOW is the time.

All it take is the will to transfer the trillion in wars for oil, the 500M$ per reactor per year in breaks for nukes, and even more for coal

to green energy. feed in tariffs for efficiency, solar and waste bio char, and direct help for offshore wind.

Don't expect that from the GOP/Tea crowd, and pick the real Kucinich Grayson Warren CPC progressive on the democratic side.
01:37 PM on 01/09/2012
Environmentalists in Spain are against Wind Power Generation because migratory birds have being killed... LED cost is out of sight ($40.00):

Fluorescent: $5.00

LED: $40

Variations of CCT (color correlated temperature) at different viewing angles present another obstacle against widespread use of white LED. It has been shown that CCT variations can exceed 500 K[citation needed]. This is clearly noticeable by human observers, who normally can distinguish CCT differences of 50 to 100 K in the range from 2000 K to 6000 K, which is the range of CCT variations of daylight.
LEDs also have limited temperature tolerance and falling efficiency as component temperature rises. This limits the total LED power that can practically be fitted into lamps that physically replace existing filament and compact fluorescent types

...no demand for greater yield of arable land??...they must be living in a different planet, because there sure is a great deal of hunger in this World...and still, even though you can double production without increasing fertilizer use, as long as the World population continues to grow, the productivity gains will be lost in a very, very short time...this is a great technological breakthrough, however, to me it is another "taking blood out of a turnip" technology because we are not reducing the human population on the planet to adjust to what the planet can sustain and leave something for every other life form that exist here.
02:06 PM on 01/09/2012
Me thinks you are confused about the function and cost structure of technology. Fluorescent lighting does provide the vast majority of light in industrial and business applications and if done well, it works great even in your home. The problem is often not the fluorescent lighting... the problem is poor lighting design done by amateurs ("Dad, can you hang that lamp over there? .... Yes, Ma!").

Not sure why you are upset about $40 cost for an LED light when you are willing to pay $300 for the lamp fixture you are screwing that light in. The $40 is close to the production cost of the LEDs, while they screw you by about 400% in the lamp store on the price of the fixture...

As for the color temperature... you get what you pay for. Manufacturers characterize their LEDs with high precision and when you order them bulk, you get them sorted by color temperature. It's only the retail chain that throws all of it into one bin... to save cost. And if you want, you can build electronic controller which let you adjust the color temperature of LEDs, too. So no, it's not a production problem, it's just the typical "screw the consumer" problem.

Between 30-50% of all food produced is wasted. The hunger in the world is a production chain, transportation chain, consumer cooling problem. Easily solvable with existing technology, no more land required. If we cared, that is. But we don't.
04:32 PM on 01/09/2012
I will rather stick with my incandescent light bulb. When I keep it on during the winter, it helps the heating in my home for pennies. I don't mind paying for the $300 dollar lamp, because of its artistic value, but, I do mind paying $40+ for a glorified light bulb...you may be right about the wasted food, specially here in our country. I don't think that is the case in the slums of India, Latin America and Africa and even in some parts of our country. People eat food from land fills in some parts of the World, so "wasted" food is being eaten by some...
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07:04 AM on 01/09/2012
HAve you not calculated demand ? As a layman it was my understanding we could not meet current demand , even while bringing along these new technologies. And have we not calculated the possible savings energy efficiencies would bring instead of bringing on more production ?

When are we going to invest in our grid system ? This seems the most pressing problem . Given the loss in delivering electricity to distant locations. Lets not even bring up the vulnerabilities of this antiquated , tenuous , out dated , one size fits all disaster waiting to happen . Smart Grid anyone ?
01:51 PM on 01/09/2012
Solar energy alone can generate about 1kWh/day per square meter (at cost now close to comparable to our current energy mix and falling steeply). That's a demand of a mere 100 square meters for every human being on the planet living like the average European. Ten billion people times 100 square meters is a trillion sqare meters, or one million square kilometers, which happens to be 0.2% of the surface of the planet. Hardly worth mentioning, especially since we are wasting tens of times more land on poorly built infrastructure, already.

Now add all the other renewable energy sources to the mix and... the problem is perfectly solvable. All we have to do is not to stand in the way of the solution.
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07:58 PM on 01/09/2012
Bravo , well put , fanned , thanks !!
wiseapple
. just can not fail, if we never, ever stop
11:55 PM on 01/08/2012
I like this idea of a science section. It should be very interesting.
I have a couple of questions. Does the ionosphere have an abundance of electrical capacity? And can it be captured or can conditions be simulated here on Earth to utilize this kind of energy. There is probably something that prevents such a thing, but I read that a lot of high energy molecules are produced in this area. Anyone ... ?
01:04 AM on 01/09/2012
You can estimate the total energy in the ionosphere by assuming that Earth is a spherical capacitor. Sadly, the total capacitance is a mere 710uF for the sphere and maybe something like 70 times as much for a layer 100km above the ground. So that's about 50mF. The ionospheric potential is about 250kV. So the total electrostatic energy is about 1.5GJ, 1.5 seconds worth of a 1GW power plant. Not worth tapping into.
wiseapple
. just can not fail, if we never, ever stop
10:40 AM on 01/09/2012
Thank you for your response.
Pauline Jaing
Artist, worker, mother
09:40 PM on 01/08/2012
Oil was a science driven fuel -- before that, there was essentially only whale oil, coal, wood and kerosene in the US.

And why don't we know this? We are so shallow! Like we think canopy beds are just luxury, when they were built to keep the cold out; we think a decorator did the castles we see in movies, when this wealthy decoration was accumulated over centuries! And we seem to think oil dropped out of the sky from heaven and radio waves were invented by DJs.
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BluePhantom2
The Blacksmith & the Artist reflected in their art
07:23 PM on 01/08/2012
" And given a reasonable regulatory regime, the levelized cost of onshore wind power is as low as that for gas, and cheaper than everything else". So in other words without "SUBSIDY" it can not compete or should I use levelize instead of "SUBSIDY".
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crydespite
no-one is ever 'just saying'
07:51 PM on 01/08/2012
Most of the other sources have their own subsidies. Oil, nuclear, etc. all benefit or have benefitted from taxpayer support - sometimes in the extreme. Why complain when something that will save us money in the longer term receives a reasonable subsidy to get it off the ground?
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fireofenergy
Promote freedom AND science
01:52 PM on 01/08/2012
Thanks for the great article! What do you think about closed cycle nuclear (like LFTR and IFR which is supposed to be meltdown proof by virtue of stability)?
02:25 AM on 01/09/2012
100% safe technology does not exist. Even if it did, the cost aspect of dismantling the reactor would still be there. Usually nuclear energy externalizes the shutdown cost to look good, but in the end there is no visible cost advantage, especially not with increasing safety requirements.
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03:51 PM on 01/09/2012
Of course not. The question is, if this new device did fail, how catastrophic would the failure be?
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MyTake
Release the Hydrogen Economy now!
10:22 AM on 01/08/2012
--The power world is dominated by coal, gas and nuclear, with some large hydropower in selected spots. Most people believe that it is likely to stay that way for some time--

Gee, "The Power World" are nothing more than the interlocks of three powerful organizations, The Chatham House (EN), The Pratt House (NY) and The House of Bilderberg and each are built on the Rothschild/Rockefeller cornerstones.

The Carbon Economy can be collapsed in a NY minute with the launch of The Hydrogen Economy.

It is a pity that the writer has yet to figure out that when you break the water molecule apart and let it snap back together again across a membrane, that you just draw the electric current from the process and drive an electric motor with it.

But people need pictures to see this happening.

This pollution free 11.2 MW Fuel Cell Park became operationa­­l in South Korea recently: http://tin­­yurl.com/­6­skgw9h .

This outfit makes Hydrogen Gas for the Oil Cartel: http://tin­­yurl.com/­6­umyf7f .

Mercedes Benz is PRODUCTION READY with this Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric vehicle: http://tin­­yurl.com/­6­nxrcq2 , but the Oil Cartel are not installing hydrogen gas pumps on their service station lots.

So, there you have it.

You have the Fuel Cell Electric Generation Plant that runs the Hydrogen Production Plant that supplies the Hydrogen gas for the car.
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fireofenergy
Promote freedom AND science
01:46 PM on 01/08/2012
Electrolysis is not as efficient, but much more energy dense than lifepo4 batteries. I believe it is physically impossible to get better than 60%, whereas from the battery, more like 90%. Besides, HYProgen is just another energy carrier, like electricity, dirty or clean. Thus the writer definitely knows. The whole idea is about making ALL of these cheaper, MUCH cheaper.
02:28 AM on 01/09/2012
The only reason they are developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is regulatory pressure. I believe Germany and CA demand that they have some number of hydrogen vehicles on the road by some dates, no matter how ready the technology or how useful. It's basically legislators running amok and the car industry building Potemkin villages.
10:19 AM on 01/08/2012
The climate change deniers seem to have blown an opportunity to seize the science and make it their own. Don't they want mankind to have the ability to control Earth's climate, like an advanced civilization out of science fiction? That would fit organically into the right's dominator model for dealing with nature.

Instead they've just thrown this potentially powerful new technology away by denying its existence.
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05:15 AM on 01/08/2012
I do not think that humans pose a threat to the planet, which is for the most part inert.

On the other hand, I do think that we pose a clear and present danger to the continued existence of the biosphere on this planet.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mhh310351
Roosevelt Democrat
02:31 AM on 01/08/2012
Thinking so 1990's!

Think bigger, think TVA big!

Let's think in terms of a engineered method to reverse the damage we have caused in terms of increased CO2 levels, oceanic pH change which is destroying crustaceans & reefs, over fishing, and climate change.

There's an old proven technology called Bio-Rock where a little electricity is applied to a grid that has coral attached to it. The electricity shifts the equilibrium of the reef building process into a more favorable situation with corals growths of 2 inches per ear being reported...This is warp speed in the world of coral growth.

http://www.alertdiver.com/Biorock_Electric_Reefs

See coral reefs are CO2 sequestering machines. In this process we would reduce CO2 in the oceans improving the viable pH for corals & crustaceans. These coral reefs would act as nurseries

Now how do we combine this for the future?

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=offshore-wind-may-power-the-future

These sites are going up across the world. Which leads to my next point. People think of coral as only warm water entities.

But there are cold water varieties as well!

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/distribution-of-coldwater-and-tropical-coral-reefs

As Colonel John 'Hannibal' Smith would say, " I love it when a plan comes together"!
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Minolta321
Photographer
12:02 AM on 01/08/2012
Science already HAS saved the planet. Nuclear power is the answer. It's time to let us companies put in the cheap and safe nuclear power plants that other nations like China are building.
03:41 AM on 01/08/2012
Nuclear is neither cheap nor safe and it will, for sure, not save the planet, unless you are willing to multiply existing nuclear facilities 10-20 fold. That would be 4-8000 nuclear facilities, I believe... good luck with that.
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03:58 PM on 01/09/2012
It's more like it's either cheapish or safe, but not both at the same time. Still, aside from that a valid point.
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fireofenergy
Promote freedom AND science
02:16 PM on 01/08/2012
All 450 or so LWR's in use today WILL meltdown unless the grid and or bucket brigade (delivering water and or power to each) stays intact for thousands of years! The only way to prevent all of this unnecessary "baggage" is to decommission them in a timely manner.
Sure, you might say "they ARE necessary" as they do provide a lot of power, however, there is a MUCH better reactor design. Just a little thorium or uranium (or even LWR waste) in a MOLTEN mix is 100 times more efficient, thus 100 times less waste (or something like that) and that waste (since it is more radioactive) lasts only 1/500th as long.
Once initiated, the meltdown proof thorium reactors could power HUNDREDS of full blown Western civilizations...just by mining dirt (and extraction from desalinated seawater)!
I like solar and wind (because they, too, can power at least one whole population at Western standards), but I don't think they could ever match that!
On the other hand, dangerous LWR's scaled up "all the way" wouldn't even keep up with the rest of the oil that is still left (because of the need to extract the 0.7 percent of U235 out of natural U238 and because it only fissions like a few percent "of that" at most)!)
02:30 AM on 01/09/2012
Now all you need is the technology to keep the "molten mix" safe. Everything can be done by moving the hard part of a technology to a different technology problem for which no solution exists, either.
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jf12
Esta vez saldré como las otras y me escaparé.
10:07 PM on 01/07/2012
Of course science can work wonders, when given sufficient monetary resources. But you know that. It isn't Atlas shrugging that may be a problem, btw, it's Atlas taking his ball and going home.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
09:54 PM on 01/07/2012
Black Swans, highly improbable innovations in the energy arena with huge implications, are in the birth canal.

They are likely to make practical the changes needed for human survival on the planet. Surprisingly, our survival may be about to confront an unrecognized hazard. A solar storm can cause hundreds of nuclear plants to meltdown worldwide.

See the Aesop Institute website to understand why and how. And what might be done to prevent the worst.

Cheap Green, Moving Beyond Oil, Running on Water, and Black Swans, on the same site, provide a few examples of revolutionary technologies that promise to change the economic, energy and perhaps the political, landscape.