Arizona Going Rogue?
Is it possible that John McCain can lose his home state of Arizona?
With new polls and early voting results showing the state is in play, during the last 48 hours the Obama Campaign has reversed gears and redirected its army of volunteers in the Grand Canyon state back to their home turf to "get out the vote" rather than making calls and canvassing in crucial swing states.
Dave Cieslak, the communications director for the Obama Campaign in Arizona told HuffPost's OffTheBus:
"Of course, our volunteers can go where they want, but for the last several days we've been focusing their calling efforts right here in Arizona. We're certainly moving in the right direction. The AZ poll has us within 2 points of McCain. Project West [Poll] has us within 4, and Rasmussen has [us] within 5 and the Research 2000 has us within 1 point. All of those polls are single digits. The polls are tightening because of our extraordinary volunteers."
The Obama Campaign headquarters in Phoenix was so packed on Monday that volunteers were sitting on the lawn, on the porch, and in their cars in the parking lot with their calling sheets and using their cell phones.
For the past three months, many of the Arizona Obama volunteers spent most of their time making calls - and even traveling - to other battleground states, where an Obama's path to victory relied heavily upon electoral wins in the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and western states like Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
"I've been in five states for Obama. I was in Ohio for the chunk of October, but I had to come back home to help our downstate candidates and my home state GOTV for Obama" said super volunteer Lauren Kuby from Tempe, AZ, who was an early Obama supporter and organized a Women for Obama group a year ago.
The formerly ruby red state of Arizona is turning purple and might even turn blue according to Kuby. Her district registered 4500 new Democrats in the past two years. However, she still considers an Obama win in Arizona a long shot. "He'll only win here if it's there's a [national] landslide," said Kuby.
Kuby had just returned from a Howard Dean event at her local Democratic headquarters and Don Bivens, Arizona State Party Chair told Huffingtonpost, "You don't get the chairman of the national party in your state the day before a national election, if he doesn't think we can win."
Bivens spent the day with Dean crisscrossing the state with Dean and said that the state party was now closely coordinating their GOTV efforts with the Obama Campaign, expecting - and hoping - for an Obama win.
"Now we've got two major armies and we just passed the millionth registered Democrat in the state. The Republicans have 1.1 million here. But remember, it's the Independents in Arizona who really decide any election. There are 800,000 registered Independents and they broke 2-1 for the Democrats in 2006. Of course, there's the homeboy advantage McCain has but with our ground game and early voting, we've got a shot," said Bivens.
Early voters in Arizona experienced the same 3-5 hour wait as other early voting states and with approximately 120,000 newly registered Democrats since 2006, Bivens felt cautiously confident that his state may go rouge and give Obama a narrow win.
According to Bivens, of the 34% of Arizona voters who requested mail in ballots, Obama was ahead 47-46 in a Bruce Merrill Walter Cronkite School Poll.
Jean Vickers from Tucson is an active Democrat. For the last three months she has been volunteering at her local Democratic office, specifically focusing on GOTV within her district and plans on "popping the champagne" should Obama eke out a victory on Tuesday.
"It's going to be close but I think there are still just too many conservatives in Scottsdale and Phoenix but the new residents are changing that. If we could beat McCain that would be sweet...it would be the first time this state went Dem since the 50s."
"Most people who move to Arizona bring their politics with them and one half of the current registered voters have never seen McCain's name on a ballot or seen him once. The state isn't a Goldwater state anymore. It's definitely purple and may even go blue," predicted Bivens.
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
If McCain loses in AZ it will be his own fault. He has let his campaign take on a life of it's own and he lost control of it long ago. He is not the McCain of 2000. I wish McCain would have won the Republican nomination back then. His time has past. As soon as he started "palling around with Bush" it was all over. And then the dismal pick of Palin. Yikes. His campaign should have just let McCain be McCain. He didn't need a make-over like his running mate. To bad but he has to take responsibility for it.
I am an AZ resident. I'd love to see Obama squeak this one out. One person quoted said AZ has not gone blue since the 50s; that's incorrect. We voted for Clinton in '96.
I grew up in a Democratic home in SoCal in the turbulent '60s, but eventually became a Republican. My beliefs, not Party affiliation, are what have always dictated my vote. My brother and many classmates served in the Vietnam War, some never returning. We experienced the aftermath of assassinations of President John Kennedy, Senator Robert Kennedy, and Martin Luther King. We supported John McCain in the primary in his bid for the nomination in 2000, but not without our reservations. At the same time, we had begun drifting away from our support for the Republican Party. We began to increasingly question the right-leaning, myopic direction the Party was taking with its platform and ideology. After this year’s Democratic Convention, it was with no reservations that we supported Senator Obama. Moreover, it is because of Senator Obama's tireless energy, passion, vision and compassion that we have become re-energized about the prospects of hope for the future of our Nation. Our Nation may not be in an economic depression, but it's our feeling that we have become emotionally depressed about where President Bush's policies have dangerously moved our Country. We have been severely wounded within our borders and globally. Not since the days of President Kennedy do we feel there has been anyone as charismatic and who possesses the innate qualities, abilities, intelligence, conviction of purpose and leadership to be our President, and who can head us in the right direction toward healing the wounds that so desperately require attention!
I'm a 40yr old independent who feels the same. And race had absolutely nothing to do with my re-energized feeling of hope and vote for Obama-- though for many its the cherry on top.
If this guy can intelligently unify our energy for the betterment of this wrecked country, so be it. I'm on board. He's his work cut out for him.
NC4O
You have expressed exactly what we are feeling...
It is just beyond my comprehens
This is our time to take back our govt and make it for the people once again..... How people do not see what has happened to our nation is beyond me....
So... keep me from jumping off a cliff tomorrow if Barack Obama has not won the leadership of our nation....
I am going to be severely stressed at what our nation is becoming..
and all those radical right wingers .... look for your contributions to start slowing dramatically because all the people you exploit right now... are not going to be able to contribute to your platforms anymore...
Awesome!
I live here in beautifully sunny Arizona, and I voted early for Obama! I am in the real estate profession, and have watched first hand, the destructive policies of the current administration. Daily I see people who are losing their homes and businesses, good people who have played by the rules but have been vicitims of the lies and greed.
I know we have a ways to go to restore this country to its former glorious self, but electing Obama is a HUGE step in the correct direction. It shows that most of America did not support Bush and what he did. It is also a great sign that America is moving away from its racist past. Time for a new day!
Please, please, if you have any family here in AZ, or if you live here, call them and get out and vote for Obama.
GO OBAMA / BIDEN
Yes, what BruceHNV said.
When I read the headline, my first thought was "Arizona is going to start wearing make-up?"
Remember that McCain was planning on revisiting water rights in Arizona right after the states had agreed to an accord because he hadn't been paying attention to what was going on. A lot of new people that have moved into the state have definitely not seen him at his best.
I have family there, they voted for him for Senator when they moved there, but won't vote for him for President and won't vote for him for re-election to Senator.
Not true - voted Clinton in 1996 and will someone tell me something McCain has done for Arizona since he was elected Senator/Co
He's against funding state projects with federal money, it's his whole "anti-pork" stance...d
oops --forgot the one Clinton term AZ voters supported. I must be forgiven because I only moved here from Boston a year ago.
What is also amazing is that we are also on our way to turning the state legislative bodies blue. The Green Valley Dems office I call from is overflowing tomorrow with about 60 volunteers calling to get the vote out. The volunteers here are amazing. Most are calling two or three shifts a week. In Tucson the Gijalva teams are walking every day door-to-door. There are a lot of very good people working very hard to bring in the vote for Obama and our Arizona US and State reps. I am grateful to be part of the wave of the future here.
COME ON ARIZONA YOU CAN DO IT. Remember that little ant and the rubber tree plant.
A few words from the Gettysburg Address:
Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in
Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. That this nation, under God,
shall have a new birth of freedom; and that government of the people, by the people, for the people,
shall not perish from the earth.
American cannot afford to have McCain be in charge of our military men and women - you heard his speech today, all he said over and over again was , "fight". He was not talking about your vote.
OBAMA- BIDEN
Whatever, you do stay until you cast your vote; and double check it.
Hi, Beverly.
You mean "rogue" as in against discipline, rather than "rouge," as in French for "red," yes?
works either way :P
I believe it is "Rogue." It is a reference to talk of Sarah Palins' recent actions within the campaign and talk of her "going rogue". The wordplay between "rogue" and "rouge" is interesting considering if Arizona does in fact go "Rogue" then it would go blue not "rouge."
lol...grea
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
