Outspending, out-spinning, and most important, out-organizing the Clinton campaign, Senator Obama has nearly pulled even with Senator Clinton in Ohio.
According to a Reuters/C-Span/Houston Chronicle poll released on Friday, Obama trails Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent, within the 3.8 percent margin of error, making this a toss-up.
The latest "poll of polls" calculated by CNN show 47% for Clinton to 40% for Obama, giving Obama the big 'Mo' but it remains a tough battle for this delegate-rich state primary on March 4.
The sluggish economy, Reagan Democrats, and high unemployment makes Ohio a tough state for any Democrat this cycle, but this is an open primary where registered voters can choose either D, R, or I ballots; a Democrat ballot with issues, a Republican ballot with issues, or an Issues only ballot.
"This is a hardened electorate. It's all about getting out the vote, phoning, knocking on doors, encouraging early voting, casting a wide net, capturing the voters coming to big events," said a top Obama operative in Columbus, who will hit the streets today, joining thousands of volunteers on their "Knocking on a Million Doors" 2-day event this weekend - and that's not all.
"Soap for Hope" and "March to the Polls, Vote Early with Mayor Michael Coleman" are just two of more than 50 organizing events the Obama campaign has scheduled for the final days before the Buckeye primary - with161 delegates in play - compared to only a dozen campaign rallies promoted on Clinton's Ohio website.
As elsewhere around the country, it's the Mark Penn vs. Kal Penn visual in Ohio, which says as much as any polls about these candidates and their strategy to win this firewall state for both Democratic rivals.
Mark Penn, the cynical Washington PR strategist - and million dollar consultant - for the Clinton campaign, has continued mismanaging the alleged 'most experienced' candidate as opposed to the fresh face of a young Hollywood movie star, Kal Penn, a tireless volunteer, stumping on Ohio college campuses for Obama this weekend.
Advertising dollars are figuring large in this campaign. During the last two weeks in Ohio, Obama has run over 5400 ads at a price tag of $2.6 million, while Clinton has spent $1.4 million running 3500 ads.
The most famous, the "Red Phone" Clinton television commercial tells voters:
"It's 3:00 a.m. and your children are asleep. There's a phone in the White house, and it's ringing. Something is happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call. Whether someone knows the world's leaders, knows the military, someone tested and ready to lead. It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?"
It's an ominous ad, teetering on fear baiting and recalling the notorious 'Daisy Ad' from the Johnson-Goldwater 64 match-up and the Obama team slugged back within 48 hours with their own "Red Phone" ad:
"It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone ringing in the White House. Something's happening in the world. When that call gets answered, shouldn't the president be the one - the only one -who had the judgment and courage to oppose the Iraq war from the start."
"Ohio has the biggest ground game besides Texas," said an Obama operative who declined to give a paid staff or volunteer count roaming around the Buckeye state, but you can be sure it rivals Iowa or New Hampshire which saw over 500 on the ground in those states.
With Texas looking like a win for Obama and Ohio narrowing to an eyelash, Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters on a conference call on Friday that Senator Clinton isn't likely to gain enough delegates on March 4 to make-up for her deficit.
Obama's delegate count is now 1373 compared to Clinton's 1265, including superdelegates. The won-delegates stand at 1192 for Obama and 1035 for Clinton.
The delegate count ratio is predicted to stay about the same - give or take 3 or 4 delegates - but the momentum race is already lost for Clinton and has been for some weeks now.
The Obama coffers are overflowing, their tight ground teams honed, and their campaign enthusiasm high after 11 straight wins, while the Clinton campaign battles both inside and outside her campaign.
Without a strong win in either Texas or Ohio, money will dry up for Senator Clinton and the big question remains, "How long will she continue to hang onto the illusion that this nomination is still hers to win?"
Loading comments…
Posted March 1, 2008 | 09:37 AM (EST)