Letter From Earth: We're Getting Warmer

2010 is shaping up to be the warmest year on record.

The U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has released its preliminary analysis of global temperatures for the month of April: it was a hot one.

NCDC reports that April's globally averaged surface temperature is the warmest on record. Also the warmest on record are the first four months of 2010 (January through April).

Temperature measurements for the first four months of 2010 show record-breaking warmth. (Source: NCDC/NOAA)

This April's temperatures beat out 1998's, the previous record-holder for the warmest April. Global temperatures during April 2010, according to NCDC, averaged 58.1 degrees Fahrenheit, which is some 1.37 degrees above the 20th century average, NCDC's baseline. In April 1998, global temperatures averaged about 1.28 degrees Fahrenheit above the baseline.

The comparison between 2010 and 1998 is interesting. NCDC ranks 1998 as the second warmest year on record, right behind 2005. Two things probably contributed to 1998's record warmth -- a strong El Niño in the South Pacific, which favors the transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, and a so-called solar maximum, in which a little extra energy in the form of solar radiation hits Earth.

Interestingly, after a long period of either La Niña (i.e., anti-El Niño) or neutral conditions, the South Pacific returned to El Niño in mid-2009 and there it has stayed at least through last month.

However, the current El Niño is not nearly as strong as the one in 1998, and the current Sun, much less active than it was in 1998 when it was just shy of its peak, has just recently started to dig out of a very deep and long solar minimum.

So, with this year's weaker El Niño and much weaker solar activity, another explanation for 2010's warmth is needed. What could that possibly be? Gee, hey, gee ... it's a gas to try to solve such a conundrum.

United States Playing It Cool, but Mark My Words, Elsewhere It's Been Hot

While most of the rest of the world is heating up, U.S. temperatures have remained fairly unremarkable, even on the cool side for the most part (see graphic below). This continues a trend seen last winter, when much of the United States shivered while most other parts of the globe saw record warmth.

(Source: NCDC/NOAA)

The discouraging part of this temperature pattern is that while conditions remain stable over the contiguous United States, temperatures in Alaska and north of the border in Canada and over Greenland -- some of the world's most climate-sensitive regions -- are way up. At the very least those warmer conditions will mean more melting permafrost and more melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

So what's at the bottom of the recent absence of a U.S. warming trend? Some would point to changes in the jet stream and the polar front. But more visionary folks might see this as validation of that New Age philosophy that if you just believe something hard enough, it will happen. Under this scenario, as long as Americans remain in denial about global warming, they will be able to stay "cool" so to speak? This kind of takes to an extreme Mark Twain's quip that "it's your human environment that makes your climate." But, with all due respect to Mr. Twain, I just can't accept that much human-induced climate change. You might say I am a skeptic. And speaking of skeptics ...

(Source: NCDC/NOAA)

If You're Skeptical -- When in Doubt, Tell the Truth

It has been my experience that there are folks out there who are skeptical of these temperature records.

A frequent complaint from such skeptics: You can't believe temperature records from surface networks, because the data are skewed by effects such as urban heat islands and station creep and questionable statistical manipulations to remove such artifacts. It's all "lies, damned lies, and statistics," I guess.

Well, I don't agree, but OK, let's throw out all the land data and just look at the data from the ocean.

Average Temperatures Over the Ocean Surface

• During the month of April ocean temperatures were the warmest on record; and
• Over the first four months of 2010 they were the second warmest.

The last time I checked: urban heat islands weren't really a factor over the ocean.

Satellite-basedTemperature Record from University of Alabama

Some skeptics go even further, claiming you can't believe any of those
surface measurements or the government scientists who analyze them. They
prefer mid-atmospheric temperatures analyzed by scientists from the
University of Alabama (UAH) using satellite data.

Again I don't agree, but take a gander at the temperature trends from UAH. Not quite at the 1998 level but clearly warmer than any other year on the UAH record.

The bottom line: anyway you cut it, 2010 is shaping up to be a very warm year.

(Source: UAH)

The Bigger Picture

The 21st century's opening decade, although the warmest on record, saw little rise in global temperatures from year to year. That stasis in global temperatures prompted some to declare that global warming was over, even that an ice age was coming. Using such a short temperature record to prognosticate might make good PR, but scientifically it's silly. Likewise, we shouldn't make too much of the recent jump in global temperatures. Let's wait and see. But harking back to an earlier quotation: reports of global warming's death are exaggerated.

This post was originally published on www.thegreengrok.com

 

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Comments

[mamacat]

03:51 PM on 06/07/2010

Thanks Doc, I always enjoy reading your posts.

[stueysplace]

07:44 PM on 05/24/2010

Every time someone defends the scientific research on climate change all the skeptics come out of the woodwork. I like to divide these skeptics into four main categories. The people who reacting on personal fear and hence can't face the truth. Those who are paid by vested interests. Those who are too ashamed to admit that they are personally responsible for this disaster, and those who are too ignorant or stupid to understand the science. The later are the people who contribute the most to climate Armageddon.

[lightningbolt]

11:37 AM on 05/19/2010

We must continue pushing the government to create a massive investment in clean renewable energy. There needs to be massive popular pressure to force the government to make this investment. Elected officials alone do not have enough power to overcome the force of bribery (lobbying). We must give those elected officials no choice but to invest in clean renewable energy.

[dobermanmacleod]

03:02 AM on 05/19/2010

The main danger is abrupt climate change. When a complex system (like our climate) is forced (like by our massive emissions), it resists changing, then abrupt changes to a new stable state. For the last twelve thousand years we've been in an unusually hospitable climate state called the "Holocene." This has allowed mankind to grow crops and support cities. Soon routine severe heat waves will cause non-irrigated crops to fail and ecosystems to collapse. Luckily there is a simple and cheap way to immediately cool the Earth: just add a little (more) sun dimming aerosol to the air. Heck, we already are cooling the Earth about half a degree C from our short-lived sun dimming pollution. Yeah, the Earth is heating up, but the main danger is abrupt climate change that will cause famine, and thus war, pestilence, and death.

"The alternative (to geoengineering) is the acceptance of a massive natural cull of humanity and a return to an Earth that freely regulates itself but in the hot state." --Dr James Lovelock, August 2008

[dragonmaster]

05:28 PM on 05/18/2010

I have posted much of the data above elsewhere on Huff- and have been laughed at by some as a 'hoot' who is an 'alarmist' working for Al Gore!

Yes, its simply becoming warmer- this decade alone, we should see as much warming in the period from 1970-2009- which is really scary.

The amount of Co2- the primary greenhouse gas- and other gases is astounding.
2010 will likely end up as the warmest year on record- this spring in southern New England has been the warmest on record- its really amazing here- and historical- the trees are 10 days -3 weeks advanced from what is normal- my Garden is even more profound in its growth-3-4 weeks ahead of what can be considered normal here.

[dobermanmacleod]

03:04 AM on 05/19/2010

Keep up the good work dragonmaster - you are raising the alarm!

Ecosystems go into quick decline when warming reaches a certain threshold. Leemans and Eickhout (2004) found that more ecosystems collapse as warming speeds up:

If the warming is 0.1 °C per decade, 5 percent of ecosystems will collapse.

If the warming is 0.3 °C per decade, 15 percent of ecosystems will collapse.

If the rate exceeds 0.4 °C per decade, all ecosystems will be quickly destroyed.

[dragonmaster]

06:40 AM on 05/19/2010

Thanks for the support

but it seems little listen and even less understand what we all may be facing.

When the junk hits the fan more often with extreme weather events in the not too distant future with the following;
Extreme drought, precipitation events, more severe tropical cyclones, flooding, and stifling heat waves-not to mention milder winters, ice melt and sea rise- when this stuff begins to multiply and cause social, economic and human sufferings it will be far too late- in fact we have already reached or passed the 'tipping point'...................

[lbsaltzman]

11:25 AM on 05/19/2010

I am experiencing the same phenomena on the West Coast. While our weather is pretty benign anyway. I have just harvested the first peaches in April and early May and will shortly be harvesting early apples. Needless to say this is ahead of schedule, even for Southern California. Obviously one year proves nothing, and we did have an El Nino, but there is no question that there is a dramatic shift in how gardens and farms are responding to the rapidly changing climate.

[dragonmaster]

02:34 PM on 05/19/2010

U.S. National Academy of Sciences labels as “settled facts” that “the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities”
New report confirms failure to act poses "significant risks"
May 19, 2010