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Bill Destler

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The Case Against Selectable Science

Posted: 08/27/2012 4:11 pm

When I was a boy, I came up with the (not so original) idea of putting generators on the front wheels of a car and using the electricity they produced to power electric motors on the rear wheels, thereby propelling the car down the road without any additional energy source. Although I was soon disabused of this idea by my increasing knowledge of the laws of physics and the data from many failed attempts at implementing my idea, and even though this is settled science in 99.9 percent of the scientific community, the U.S. Patent Office still receives several proposals each year of a similar nature from individuals with what look to be credible scientific credentials.

Similarly, Congressman Akin's recent claims that women who are raped have little likelihood of becoming pregnant is a piece of scientific falsehood that was initially proposed by Dr. John Willke, a physician active in the anti-abortion movement. The process by which Mr. Akin adopted Dr. Willke's mistaken premise is becoming all too familiar in our country. In this process one first decides what position one wants to support, and then one looks for science supporting that position. And while science is science, humans are still human and if one looks hard enough he or she can usually find something that meets the need. In this case, the scientific community is in 99 percent agreement that Dr. Willke's premise is false, and there is ample scientific evidence against his claim, but Congressman Akin selected this one outlying opinion to reinforce his belief that abortions should be banned even when resulting from rape.

Global climate change is another, even more disturbing, example. Even though the National Academies of Science of all the major industrialized nations are in agreement that the average temperature around the world is rising and that the most significant cause is the increase in the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere caused by recent human activity, there are many for whom this conclusion is not the desired one. As a result, many of them look for the very few (and declining in number) scientists with contrary opinions to argue that the jury is still out on this issue and that we can therefore continue to conduct business as usual. In this case, conducting business as usual may be convenient for some, but it could be catastrophic for our children and grandchildren.

I would encourage all of us, especially those of us trained in science and engineering, to stand up against this use of "selectable science," regardless of our political views or party affiliation. The ability of humans to draw scientific conclusions based on the preponderance of evidence is a mark of our intelligence, and while scientific theories are frequently updated and occasionally discarded on the basis of new evidence, our course will be best set by using the best available scientific evidence at the time we make decisions.

 
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When I was a boy, I came up with the (not so original) idea of putting generators on the front wheels of a car and using the electricity they produced to power electric motors on the rear wheels, ther...
When I was a boy, I came up with the (not so original) idea of putting generators on the front wheels of a car and using the electricity they produced to power electric motors on the rear wheels, ther...
 
 
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10:51 AM on 08/30/2012
As long as our education system continues to focus on "teaching to the test" and away from analytical thinking and scientific method, people will feel free to spout whatever nonsense

a: Makes them feel good or
b: Makes them money or
c: Is sent to them by their cousin Jethro in an email
08:32 PM on 08/28/2012
Anyone trained in science knows that science is NOT done by consensus. Truth is not a numbers game but a matter of facts. One fact is enough to prove your case. 1+1=2 is true and it doesn't matter how many people agree with me or not. So long as you can bring the evidence and verify your data than it's science. I wish people would stop treating science like sociology.
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ythri
11:20 AM on 08/29/2012
Anyone trained in science knows that scientists develop consensus models over time, and it's the job of people who disagree to demonstrate how their model better fits the fact so that a new consensus can be developed.
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SerbNik
07:28 PM on 08/28/2012
I have a bit of an odd question. I we could absorb most of the carbon-dioxide would it stop global warming in some time period?
11:44 AM on 08/28/2012
Excellent commentary. My son is an incoming freshman at RIT, and it makes me very proud to read the university's president testifying on behalf of the proper application of the scientific method. The increasing frequency with which science is misused by fringe elements is a tragic side effect of poor education and sloppy journalism. The potential implications for our society and the planet as a whole are frightening to consider.
03:16 AM on 08/28/2012
I would remind readers that for decades strongly held medical doctrine was that ulcers were caused by stress, spicy foods, and too much acid. Then Barry Marshall and Robin Warren showed that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is the cause of most peptic ulcers. Global warming may or may not follow but "Consensus" agreement does not make things true. Man's role may well be understandably be less than our egos wold like to see.
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
08:15 AM on 08/28/2012
You have given a perfect example of "selectable science" for us to dissect!

You have chosen an example from the medical arts. So the medical Doctors got the science wrong for a number of years on bacterium in the stomach lining therefore....... therefore what?

You have selected one anecdote from a completely different and unrelated field to fire against the National Academies of Science of all the major industrialized nations on an important topic related to the chemistry and physics of climate.

You have taken an anecdote about some or most medical specialists in one field having overestimated the anti-bacterial properties of stomach acid and are trying to do what with that...?? conflate it into something equivalent to the combined analysis of most of the world's most knowledgeable scientists in atmospheric physics?

You are doing exactly what the article pleaded for you not to do. You are giving wiggle room "for the very few (and declining in number) scientists with contrary opinions to argue that the jury is still out on this issue and that we can therefore continue to conduct business as usual."

I am not going to pull my punches. You are helping the idiot side of the climate change debate.

Have a nice day.
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Brooke123456
God is ....(fill in the blank how you like)
10:51 AM on 08/28/2012
"consensus" agreement of experiment and analysis does discover what is "true".
The proponderance of evidence (a massive amount) and no evidence that contradicts is the "consensus" that is being talked about.
the "Consensus" the deniers talk about is thinking that these are "opinions" when they clearly are not.
12:10 PM on 08/28/2012
"... no evidence that contradicts is the "consensus" that is being talked about" Oh my. There is abundant evidence that contradicts and also volumes that define the climate change that has happened for eons before and after man's arrival. Take for example the flat climate in the last decade while CO2 has continued to skyrocket. Think of the last ice age we managed to come out of without without CO2 abundance.
09:04 PM on 08/27/2012
Phrenology,Iradology,astrology,alchemy,and the countless other venues of our misguided thought processes,have all been proven pretty much worthless,but there are still those that turn to the tarot,or the casting of coins in accordance with the I ching...Our paleo ancesters didn't know that the obsidion knife that they fractured,broke to the last molecule,but it sure did the job!.. The mechanics behind the wonders of the natural world are lost to many,but that doesn't mean that we have to follow the world of the shaman...
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QB Vll
I can resist everything but temptation....
08:26 PM on 08/27/2012
Seeing as how most numbers place Conservative scientists at about 3% of the pool I wonder who you were trying to reach with this?
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essbird
IOKIYANO
11:08 AM on 08/28/2012
Further proof that truth and facts have a liberal bias. No wonder the Right rails against education other than home schooling and Liberty U.
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Michael Berkowitz
08:15 PM on 08/27/2012
An excellent article by a well-respected leader in the scientific community. Thanks President Destler for standing up for science, for our country and for our children. As Voltaire said, "Who can make you believe in absurdities can make you commit atrocities." Without scientific study and action, we cannot solve problems such as climate change and health care provision.
07:17 PM on 08/27/2012
When, in the normal discourse of such things, we observe 'scientific' results reached by this selective process, we must reject them. Global Warming is one such occasion of this. I implore you to, with an open and unbiased mind, review the IPCC's assessment from which this theory derives and check their facts upon the matter.
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Brooke123456
God is ....(fill in the blank how you like)
10:52 AM on 08/28/2012
I have reviewed much of the IPCC assessments and they very clearly indicate that human caused climate change is in fact real.
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Miranda Wrietz
Yes, it is a mandate.
10:21 PM on 08/28/2012
Since you are asking others to " ....... with an open and unbiased mind, review the IPCC's assessment from which this theory derives and check their facts upon the matter." I would to assume that you have done this, and have valid provable information that these facts are wrong? Then I must ask.

1 - What are your scientific credentials.
2 - Please state which "facts" of the IPCC report are in error, and WHY/
3 - Please provide a valid, provable, peer reviewed "correction" of these facts.

If you are unable or unwilling to answer these questions, please stop repeating this propaganda. Unless you can prove your statement, then you have much LESS credibility than those your criticize,
01:33 AM on 09/11/2012
1. I have no scientific credentials. I attended no universities for education in any area dealing with the environment, climatology, or meteorology. If this disqualifies me to discuss the topic, then please present to me an alternative to the IPCC's assessments to debate against, as the data for it is selected by a man who also lacks scientific credentials. Since we are both self-educated in the field, I'd say my credentials (or lack thereof) afford me the same authority on the matter as the IPCC.
2. There are many "facts" that have been shown to be overstated, non peer-reviewed, and even outright erroneous. Ranging from the statements about the disappearance of ice from the Himalaya's that was proven to be based in pure speculation to the infamous Hockey stick graph. Many of which are irrelevant beyond establishing that the IPCC is indeed capable of error. Let's address one that actually does undermine the idea of AGW: That temperatures are the hottest seen for millenia and are caused by an increase in CO2.
3. For your reading pleasure, here is your correction: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1589.html
01:36 AM on 09/11/2012
(It appears my comment was too long before and needed to be broken down a bit.)

The problem is that the IPCC is seen as this almighty authority on the matter of the climate. What people don't understand is that they don't do any research or studies. The IPCC is a group that literally just takes studies already out there and compiles them to create assessments about climate change. It is headed by a romance novelist with no formal expertise or education in anything having to do with the climate who already believed in AGW before he was given his position. So, essentially, they've asked this man to find evidence as to whether or not AGW exists. What validity do you give to asking a man to cherry pick data and studies on an issue he has no expertise in and that he already has a definitive opinion upon? Simply look up 'IPCC peer review' if you really want to see the legitimacy of them. There are literally hundreds of instances of errors, unsubstantiated claims, positing of speculation as facts, and corruption of standard processes.
05:56 PM on 08/27/2012
In the legal profession, we call this process "goal-oriented" judging, that is, judging that starts with the result that the judge wants, which is then buttressed with the legal "authorities" that support that result. The most egregious example of this occurred in the 19th century, when the US Supreme Court supposedly held that corporations are people. As the justice who wanted that result, Stephen Field, could not get it from the other justices, he had the reporter put that proposition into the case support, which he later cited for that proposition. Later justices failed to notice and something that no one had in fact decided became the law. Stephen Field was highly paid by the Central Pacific Railroad for this result.
04:45 PM on 08/27/2012
If I think something, or I read it in the bible, or some pretty lady from Alaska said it, it must be true. We don't need no edjucashun.