There Will Be No Bounce
Pundit musings about any convention bounces are completely nonsensical this year. The schedule and calendar of the 2008 presidential campaign has no modern parallel. In turn, looking at past convention impacts on polling won't provide accurate historical context.
Traditionally, conventions are in the heart of summer, before the general election campaign has been fully joined. Nominees usually get four days of puff press that serves to introduce themselves to a wide portion of the electorate, which temporarily gooses poll numbers to varying degrees.
This year is completely different. With back-to-back conventions scheduled at the very end of summer, the campaigns had little incentive to wait before attacking. Obama and McCain have been jabbing at each other all summer. Negative attack lines towards both are already well established (though will surely be honed further.)
Four days of puff press can't detox what has already been injected into the bloodstream. And puff press shouldn't even be expected, since rival campaigns have dropped the traditional courtesy of holding fire during conventions.
Futhermore, since the conventions are back-to-back, there won't even be a window for professionally-executed polling to occur following Obama's acceptance speech (though expect some shoddy quickie polls). We'll only get some remotely accurate polling after both conventions are finished.
What I do expect, following a very mild tightening in the polls in recent days, is a return to what we've generally seen all summer (and what we see in today's ABC/W. Post poll): Obama in the upper 40s, McCain in the lower 40s. That merely reflects where the nation is ideologically right now.
If we start seeing Obama consistently break 50 after both conventions, that would be a better-than-expected success, an indication that Obama was assuring undecided voters he can deliver on the change the majority of country wants to see.
If we start seeing McCain consistently break 45 after both conventions, that would indicate McCain was having success sowing doubt about Obama among undecideds, which would likely make this a very close race to the finish.
But any poll movement should not be described as a "bounce" following a one-sided presentation. After back-to-back conventions, poll movement would reflect the impact on the electorate following the first major clash of the campaign.
Check out my issues-based convention blogging and Twittering all week, including live video streaming, spontaneous interviews and coverage of Take Back America at OurFuture.org and LiberalOasis.com, as well as here at The Huffington Post.)
Follow Bill Scher on Twitter: www.twitter.com/billscher
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They don't poll anyone on cellphones.
Who does that leave out?
Any voting groups, by any chance?
Food 4 thought.
Wow, I know you want to keep a lid on expectations, but no bounce at all? Why not just go whole hog and say that he will drop after the convention?
Obama's appeal to the middle of the road voters should pay off during the convention. If the gap in the democratic party is healed, then that should pay off as well. I think there should be an expected jump above 50, with anything less being a dissappointment.
My prediction is that both will siphon off some undecideds.
I'll go with 51 for Obama, 46 for McCain. (Kind of like predicting the score on the super bowl)
I believe that you are being a bit cynical and pessimistic with this post. Furthermore, you are underestimating Barack Obama and the other distinguished Democrats who will speak at the convention. I may be overly optimistic, but I expect a fairly significant bounce from the convention and a shift from how people have previously viewed this campaign.
America will fall because the Bush/Mccain lies!!!! Bush have lied for 7.5 years and look at the effects! Despite that people still follow Mccain regardless! McCain can't remember how many houses he has and the polls are even? Lies Lies I have a feeling it will be to late when our country wakes up!!
I think you are absolutely right about this. If we say any break in the close numbers, it will come after the first debate. In this, Obama has a slight edge over McCain, especially if he can rattle McCain and pull him in the gaffe zone.
Impeccable logic; quite possibly spot on....exce
The debates will complete the process. Too bad that the candidates will be seated as a sop to McCain's stature, but the closing handshake won't be the only evidence the Obama dwarfs McCain. There may not be an Obama "bounce," but I wouldn't be surprised if the conventions mark the point at which the electorate begins an inexorable lean toward him.
Here is the bounce Obama will get. The 30 percent + of Hillary voters that are polling for McCain, 11 percent about will switch to Obama. That will have a simultaneous effect of lowering Mccain's numbers out of the 40s and raising Obama's into the 50s. The reality is everyone who is going to vote for McCain has already decided to vote for McCain. He has no upside. He's maxed out. Of the Hillary supporters who aren't supporting Obama, only about 11-15 percent are actual voting democrats. You have a whole bunch of people who don't vote democratic in presidential elections ever who supported Hillary, I speaking of the "hard working white people" vote in WV, Western PA, rural OH and MI, IN, etc. Their vote for Hillary was a vote against Obama, and against the democratic party. They will not nor have they in the last 30 years voted democratic. These are the gay marriage voters who carried Bush in 2004. They won't vote for Obama no matter what. But mixed in with that group is the 11-15 % of Hillary people who will move after the convention. And that group, the group who has been blackmailing Obama for Hillary, will listen to Hillary and NARAL and swing. That 11 percent wins it for us in a walk. They take 11 from McCain and add 11 to Obama that is a bounce.
J
Thanks to NotesfromMe about the Maine caucuses. We watched the C-SPAN coverage of the Iowa caucuses that can only be described as cordial and earnest. It was moving to see really committed citizens participating in democracy. All this talk about caucuses being rigged sounds like sore-loserism or worse: attempts by the Republican to sow discord among the Democrats and undermine enthusiasm for Obama. C'mon, guys. It ain't gonna happen. The Obama folks have run a stellar and exemplary campaign that completely negates the "not ready" argument. They have been positive, enthusiastic, disciplined, and purposeful. Moreover, they have brought millions of new voters into the process. As the convention opens today, there should be nothing but jubilation on the part of Democrats, Independents, and Obamacans about what we have accomplished.
I watched those same C-SPAN Iowa caucuses and came away with another observation. It was the activists of the party who were primarily involved, therefore the results not always a reflection of the state-wide voter preference. Also, I wasn't sure how much dividing "the room" up openly between candidates was a reflection of a true democratic process. People seemed to be swayed by which side of the room had more votes and been badgered by neighbors and friends to join their "side of the room." Lastly, in an open process like a caucus, being associated with the right side of the room is part of our American nature to be with the winner.
Come Nov. 9 all these caucus participates in the privacy of the voting booth won't be subjected to these influences or having to be on record with who they support.
It will be interesting to see how the winner of primary caucuses does in the final state-wide elections.
Tell you what - do this:
Spend one day listening entirely to CNN News - the next day NBC News - the next day Fox News - and continue on until you're listened to every news channel.
You will find that John McCain gets the better press - that his flubs and mis-speaks are all washed clean by the talking heads that are "guest" on the show. You will find that every attack ad the McCain campaign puts out is shown repeatedly throughout the day, over and over and over. The media also refuses to play the clips of McCain's most serious gaffes, and show only his "best side."
If people think the news shows and the press dosen't influence elections, they're wrong.
How do you think Kerry was Swiftboated? It was the constant media coverage, and all of it bad and one sided.
The main stream media has turned into cowards - they're scared to death of John McCain. They're scared to tell the truth about this former POW, and will instead make him look like a saint.
Well, this so called saint is a war monger that will instate the draft, invade Russia, keep lingering war in Iraq and Afghanistan, fight against a womand right to choose, and cater to big oil and the wealthy.
John McCain is not the man to run this country. Period. And once elected we're stuck with him.
Vote wisely, and pay attention to what the candidate says instead of what the media
This is a very important comment. I had knee surgery and am spending more time in bed than I wish and am a political junky so I will watch and read everything. The written word on the internet is one thing and then there is the media. They are going to collapse spinning the Clinton story no matter what the Clinton's say or do. It would seem from the good folks at 538 that they are also spinning the latest CNN poll. Keeping this race tight is in the interest of the Media. Advertisement dollars, ratings, depend on drama and the drama unfortunatly is on the Dem's. I can only that John Mc Cain will wake up and think it is 2000 and do some of that Maverick stuff and choose someone his party doesn't like and then we can watch some real drama unfold but if not it will be as usual... Spin for the Dem's and ignoring the gaffs of the Rethugs. Dangerous.
Obama Biden 08
I certainly have great respect for Bill's insights, so we'll see if he's correct.
Somehow, I think the take-away impression for the undecided voters of these two conventions will be largely a hopeful message from the Dems and a be scared message from the Republicans.
Even undecided voters, for the most part, are weary of being afraid all the time, so if even a few percent tip toward hope, that's all that's needed.
Most important factors favoring Old "5-Planes" McCain over Obama.
DIEBOLD, etc
He gets to be on television without a republican voice-over.
Every time Obama gets a speech on TV, he gets a bounce.
No Republican voice over? Why do you think all the MSM "reporters" and "pundits" are heading for Denver? To make sure we don't get an unmediated view of anything, especially Democrats.
It's gonna be all about the debates, folks. Polls, bounces, etc. Not gonna matter if Obama crashes and burns at the debates. I don't expect that to happen when the subject gets off idiotic stuff like faith, and onto kitchen table issues like social security, health care, and housing. The problem will be, Obama will show up with policies and solutions, and McW will show up with talking points and pre-rehearsed blanket answers (probably of the POW type), and the mods will let him get away with it. Hopefully they won't let him sit during the debate.
First presidential debate:
Friday, September 26
University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
Vice presidential debate:
Thursday, October 2
Washington University in St. Louis, MO
Second presidential debate:
Tuesday, October 7
Belmont University, Nashville, TN
Third presidential debate:
Wednesday, October 15
Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
http://www
In each debate except the town meeting format, the candidates will be seated at a table with the moderator.
I'd bet my house against any of McCain's houses there's gonna be a bounce.
The only way that O gets a bigger increase is if they can pull the repub 2004 strategy - mainly scare people to vote for McC because he's going to get us involved in more wars and might start a nuclear conflict
It's actually a reasonable line of attack - given McC's temperent and rhetoric
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