Pundit musings about any convention bounces are completely nonsensical this year. The schedule and calendar of the 2008 presidential campaign has no modern parallel. In turn, looking at past convention impacts on polling won't provide accurate historical context.
Traditionally, conventions are in the heart of summer, before the general election campaign has been fully joined. Nominees usually get four days of puff press that serves to introduce themselves to a wide portion of the electorate, which temporarily gooses poll numbers to varying degrees.
This year is completely different. With back-to-back conventions scheduled at the very end of summer, the campaigns had little incentive to wait before attacking. Obama and McCain have been jabbing at each other all summer. Negative attack lines towards both are already well established (though will surely be honed further.)
Four days of puff press can't detox what has already been injected into the bloodstream. And puff press shouldn't even be expected, since rival campaigns have dropped the traditional courtesy of holding fire during conventions.
Futhermore, since the conventions are back-to-back, there won't even be a window for professionally-executed polling to occur following Obama's acceptance speech (though expect some shoddy quickie polls). We'll only get some remotely accurate polling after both conventions are finished.
What I do expect, following a very mild tightening in the polls in recent days, is a return to what we've generally seen all summer (and what we see in today's ABC/W. Post poll): Obama in the upper 40s, McCain in the lower 40s. That merely reflects where the nation is ideologically right now.
If we start seeing Obama consistently break 50 after both conventions, that would be a better-than-expected success, an indication that Obama was assuring undecided voters he can deliver on the change the majority of country wants to see.
If we start seeing McCain consistently break 45 after both conventions, that would indicate McCain was having success sowing doubt about Obama among undecideds, which would likely make this a very close race to the finish.
But any poll movement should not be described as a "bounce" following a one-sided presentation. After back-to-back conventions, poll movement would reflect the impact on the electorate following the first major clash of the campaign.
Check out my issues-based convention blogging and Twittering all week, including live video streaming, spontaneous interviews and coverage of Take Back America at OurFuture.org and LiberalOasis.com, as well as here at The Huffington Post.)
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Who does that leave out?
Any voting groups, by any chance?
Food 4 thought.
Obama's appeal to the middle of the road voters should pay off during the convention. If the gap in the democratic party is healed, then that should pay off as well. I think there should be an expected jump above 50, with anything less being a dissappointment.
My prediction is that both will siphon off some undecideds.
I'll go with 51 for Obama, 46 for McCain. (Kind of like predicting the score on the super bowl)
The debates will complete the process. Too bad that the candidates will be seated as a sop to McCain's stature, but the closing handshake won't be the only evidence the Obama dwarfs McCain. There may not be an Obama "bounce," but I wouldn't be surprised if the conventions mark the point at which the electorate begins an inexorable lean toward him.
J
Come Nov. 9 all these caucus participates in the privacy of the voting booth won't be subjected to these influences or having to be on record with who they support.
It will be interesting to see how the winner of primary caucuses does in the final state-wide elections.
Spend one day listening entirely to CNN News - the next day NBC News - the next day Fox News - and continue on until you're listened to every news channel.
You will find that John McCain gets the better press - that his flubs and mis-speaks are all washed clean by the talking heads that are "guest" on the show. You will find that every attack ad the McCain campaign puts out is shown repeatedly throughout the day, over and over and over. The media also refuses to play the clips of McCain's most serious gaffes, and show only his "best side."
If people think the news shows and the press dosen't influence elections, they're wrong.
How do you think Kerry was Swiftboated? It was the constant media coverage, and all of it bad and one sided.
The main stream media has turned into cowards - they're scared to death of John McCain. They're scared to tell the truth about this former POW, and will instead make him look like a saint.
Well, this so called saint is a war monger that will instate the draft, invade Russia, keep lingering war in Iraq and Afghanistan, fight against a womand right to choose, and cater to big oil and the wealthy.
John McCain is not the man to run this country. Period. And once elected we're stuck with him.
Vote wisely, and pay attention to what the candidate says instead of what the media
Obama Biden 08
Somehow, I think the take-away impression for the undecided voters of these two conventions will be largely a hopeful message from the Dems and a be scared message from the Republicans.
Even undecided voters, for the most part, are weary of being afraid all the time, so if even a few percent tip toward hope, that's all that's needed.
DIEBOLD, etc
Every time Obama gets a speech on TV, he gets a bounce.
Friday, September 26
University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
Vice presidential debate:
Thursday, October 2
Washington University in St. Louis, MO
Second presidential debate:
Tuesday, October 7
Belmont University, Nashville, TN
Third presidential debate:
Wednesday, October 15
Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
http://www.debates.org/pages/news_111907.html
In each debate except the town meeting format, the candidates will be seated at a table with the moderator.
It's actually a reasonable line of attack - given McC's temperent and rhetoric