The contrast could not be sharper. There was President Obama, basking in the victory glow of the raid that took out Osama bin Laden. And there were five hapless Republican presidential candidates trying desperately to get noticed at the first debate of the 2012 campaign in South Carolina. The winner, according to a focus group conducted for Fox News, which sponsored the debate: Herman Cain. Who? Exactly.
More good news for President Obama: Job gains in April were better than expected, which reassured the markets. "This proves how resilient the American economy is and how resilient the American worker is and that we can take a hit and keep on going forward," the president said. Oil prices fell, too, and the effect may soon be seen at the pump.
More bad news for Republicans: When they went back to their districts last month, they got an earful from angry constituents about the House Republican plan to privatize Medicare. Republican leaders appeared to waver on whether they would continue to press for the plan, which stands no chance of passage by the Senate. Now Republican leaders say the Medicare plan "has been and remains the Republican position." But rank-and-file GOP lawmakers are getting nervous about defying voter sentiment.
So is President Obama's reelection now assured? Well, no. Not even the post-Osama polls showed that.
The CNN poll taken the day after the raid asked registered voters whether, in the 2012 election, they would vote for Obama or not. The result: 46 percent would definitely or probably vote for Obama and 51 percent would definitely or probably not vote for him. Those numbers are nearly unchanged from the January results (47 percent for, 51 percent against).
Obama's job approval ratings did go up. Four different polls showed his numbers rising above the 50 percent mark for the first time in months, to an average of 54 percent. But that kind of bounce does not usually last long. The Gallup poll showed George W. Bush's rating jump to 63 percent after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December 2003. By May 2004, it was back below 50.
The closer you get to the issue of terrorism, the better Obama looks. In the New York Times/CBS News poll, Obama's rating on handling the threat of terrorism went up 21 points. Afghanistan: up 17 points. Foreign policy: up 13 points. Overall job as president: up 11 points. The economy: down 4 points. Which issue matters most in a re-election campaign? The economy, stupid.
That does not mean the elimination of Osama bin Laden will be irrelevant. What it does is change the perception of President Obama. He has passed the commander-in-chief test.
Remember Hillary Clinton's "3:00 a.m. telephone call" ad in the 2008 primaries? "There is a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something is happening in the world. Your vote decides who will answer the call. Whether it's someone who knows the world's leaders, knows the military, someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world."
Obama has now proved he is tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world.
The impact of the Osama raid is likely to be that much bigger because it challenges the stereotype of President Obama. In the 2008 primaries, he was the "NPR Democrat" -- thoughtful, complex, "All Things Considered." Hillary Clinton was the populist. She got the white, working-class vote. He got the educated, upper-middle-class professionals. Which, together with the black vote, enabled him to win with a bare majority.
The view that President Obama "is a strong and decisive leader" had been declining steadily in CNN polls from 80 percent when he took office in 2009 to 53 percent last month. Now it's jumped to 58 percent.
In some respects, the raid to take out Osama was a very un-Obama move. It was bold. It was risky. It was tough. It was decisive. It was more like something George W. Bush would do. In other respects, it was very much an Obama move. It was carefully planned. It was methodical. Obama himself chaired five meetings of the National Security Council to organize the attack.
According to Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward, the probabilities of success were systematically calculated: "Several assessments concluded there was a 60 to 80 percent chance that bin Laden was in the compound." One terrorism expert put the chance of success at 40 percent, but added that was "38 percent better than we have ever had before."
Bush was famous for making gut decisions. A close Obama associate told the Financial Times, "Nothing is from the gut. He is very disciplined."
Will Obama's triumph in Abbottabad be sufficient to guarantee his re-election? No. But it was necessary. In 2008, John McCain ran an ad that used excerpts from the Clinton "3:00 a.m." ad. Republicans will not dare try that in 2012.
Follow Bill Schneider on Twitter: www.twitter.com/BillSchneiderDC
Drew Westen: The Three Wings of the Republican Party
Dan Rather: Looking for Jobs in All the Wrong Places
David A. Love: This Jobs Crisis Is Obama's Kryptonite
It's Still the Economy, Stupid!
and those who Still don't believe that it is the
WARS of Invasions & Occupations
that ruining our USA
are more Stupid!
The Big Elephant is this: since 1980 the wealthiest Americans have seen their net worth increase by a whopping 400% compared to the net increase of a mere 1% that the rest us all recieved. Currently the wealthiest 5% account for almost 73% of the total wealth of this nation while the poorest 50% account for a mere 2.5% of the total pie.
The economy is shutting down because we allowed the game to get shifted so that everyone is more productive and everyone works harder but nobody but the super rich derrive any benefit from this. This is a situation that can only be corrected via confrontation and reversal of policies. It cannot be corrected by compromises.
This is the who deal folks, the reason why the Republicans want to shut down the remaining unions, why they want to out source jobs, why they want to prevent us all from being put on one more cost effective and also just plainefective health care system.
There is no middle ground here and Obama needs to choose which side he's on. If he chooses the people then he has my vote, but he needs to prove it and Killing Bin Laden is not proof of anything relevant to this. Will Obama finally chart a new course and actually lead, or will he merely get by on failure and compromise?
Thus far the answer has been a resounding "No!"
When push comes to shove, the Republicans are basically able to shove Obama around at will. Why? because while the GOP has an evil plan to eradicate the middle class they have one thing that Obama sorely lacks:
They actually have a plan! (evil though it may be).
Perhaps the Bin Laden takedown will wake Obama up to the possibility that he does not have sit back and keep taking it from the GOP anymore. Perhaps he will realize he does not need to stay on the sidelines anymore when it comes to crafting policy and choosing a clear and solid direction for our country. But don't count on it.
Obama could learn a lot from Bush. Sure Bush lead our nation over a precipice from which we may never fully recover, but people forget two things:
1. pushing us over that precipice was the goal of Bush.
2. with stubborn determination you can accomplish big things, good or bad. Bush succeeded!
Nobody ever compromised their way to greatness. Maybe killing Bin Laden can teach Obama that too? It's high time he learned this!
Show me a person who has accomplished great things and chances are this is a seriously stubborn person.
Show me somebody who has made a name as a compromiser and chances are this person will have only achieved mediocrity in whatever they pursue.
Obama got Bin Laden because Obama was Stubborn!
He needs to let go of his belief that he can have a solution that will please everyone and instead wise up to the fact that many or even most of the claims and needs and demands being put forward by the GOP just do not deserve to be treated as legitimate.
The problem is that to be effectively stubborn, one needs a solid objective to doggedly pursue and I have this fear that for Obama this goal is "compromise" itself, meaning that he is doggedly pursuing the attainment of mediocrity!
One of the Problems that any highly charismatic leader encounters, and I think we can agree that Obama is exceptionally charismatic, is that subordinates can have a tough time disagreeing with him. I sure hope that someone on his staff is able to speak up and flatly tell him:
"You know what? Effective leaders are known for setting high standards, defining ambitous attainable goals and demanding results. You did that with Bin Ladeen and it worked. I gotta tell you, Mr. President that this entire "compromise" thing is for the birds. Effective leaders are uncompromising, sir."
"Be Stubborn!!!"
Regarding the economy, the lies that bailing out Wall Street would help Main Street were just that -- lies. I don't believe anything I see or hear on the mainstream media about the government or corporate America.
That means less jobs, less inflows from abroad, a weaker dollar, and less tax revenue. When are we going to make it easier for businesses to hire americans instead of harder?
Still waiting for EITHER party to come up with a decent plan for jobs. Killed the bad guy after ten years of hunting, but unemployment is back up to 9.0 - and the push by Obama for comprehensive immigration reform sure doesn't seem like it would help our citizens and LEGAL immigrants one bit.
JOBS - JOBS - JOBS! Will the hunt for those last ten years?
FLY at a picnic
Our invasions and occupations of other nations are because Congress was and is funding them for the profit of corporations , individuals , and nations .
The deregulation that helped cause our nation to become the greatest beggar on the planet since WWII was designed by Congress .
The reason we are still in this state of international financial embarrassment is because Congress is preventing any economic improvements for political reasons , which they are attempting to claim as deficit reasons .
If Congress is the cause of all of our troubles , and they are , shouldn't this conversation be about the reelection of members of Congress ? Once this President is gone it will only be more of the same or worst .
Has the whole media gone totally insane , or is this a cover up job paid for by Congress ?
During every campaign speech Senator Obama would say "I can not do this alone . I will need your help" . He knew what he was talking about , and so far the help has not arrived . Thanks to the media .
Now he needs to demonstrate how to generate massive numbers of jobs.
Some suggestions: A New, New Deal proposes to utilize well proven financial techniques to grow the economy much faster and generate large number of jobs while deconcentrating wealth in a manner acceptable to almost everyone.
A Human Investment Tax Credit Program is aimed at creating up to 6 million jobs and assisting 4 million entrepreneurs. Some of the incentives were poorly tested in 1977 and generated 2 million jobs.
Both can be found at www.aesopinstitute.org along with several other suggestions and Green Light which lights up a little recognized potential emergency that should rapidly become a most urgent national security issue, as it can result in blackouts lasting for weeks for many millions all across the nation. Mobilizing for it intelligently can create a huge number of well-paid jobs and give the economy a very substantial boost.
Taipan Daily Special Report: Employment on an Upward Trend
by Ryan Cole, Contributing Editor, Taipan Daily
Never mind the weekly statistics. The macro picture demands it -- hiring is on the way.
The employment picture may be about to improve.
Sure, first-time filers for unemployment unexpectedly surged last week. Sure, the unemployment rate rose to 9%, despite the fact the economy added nearly 250,000 jobs.
Forget those mini gyrations for a moment. Let's take a look at the bigger picture.
American companies just had a very good quarter. Through a combination of a slight uptick in revenue, and a huge slashing of expenses, profits topped $1.68 trillion in the fourth quarter last year.
The only reason that costs have dropped so substantially is big increases in productivity. Coming out of the recession, productivity jumped 6.7%.
However, over the past 12 months, that rise has shrunk to 1.3%. That's bad news for overall growth -- but great news for job-seekers.
As it has been said, de nile is a river in Egypt!!!
Bernanke states that the US will continue in recession. It should be viewed as an unacceptable national security crisis, as hunger, homelessness, foreclosures, bankruptcies, unemployment, contraction of production are still expanding. No jobs.
Crisis economy formation measures must be implemented now or this great nation is doomed. Glass-Steagal standard in US banking is absolutely essential for the stabilization of the United States, cancelling all obligations to the Inter Alpha Group of banks. Put the Fed into bankruptcy protection, recover the bailout trillions, create the US National Bank that funds the necessary facilities that enhance the population's standard of living. Stop Perpetual War. No other options exist.
The stabilization of the United States, is the only mission on earth that can save humanity, and yet our elite, in finance and political leadership, are blissfully unconcerned, comforted, as population growth, economic activity, life sustaining infrastructure, technological advances, around the world are in decline. An insane situation.
Political leadership must discern the national priorities, discover their duty and perform, or we must make an exist for them. No other options exist.
He will not win any state he lost in 2008. He may lose 2-4 states he won. Not a slam dunk.
He may have to resort to adding Hillary to the ticket to give himself a better chance.