Exit Polls: ABC says two thirds disapprove of Iraq War

We should have hints of the first results from exit polls in about an hour and a half, about 6 PM.

ABC said Preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly six in 10 voters today disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job. Wink Wink. Kos reports from around Virginia early Tuesday indicated an extraordinarily high turnout for a midterm election, with perhaps 65 percent of registered voters expected to cast ballots, state elections officials said. That would double the midterm turnout in 2002.

One result came from Wall Street. Investors are optimistic that the election will lead to gridlock with a Democratic takeover of the Senate and House. The Dow Jones was up 51 points this afternoon. Wall Street thinks that a split in power will lead to Gridlock, an environment more favorable to business: no runaway spending increases and no repeal of the tax cuts.

Interesting Memo BEWARE OF EXIT POLLS posted today at GOP.com.

Also see my earlier post on Exit Polls.

Some of the Findings from the GOP Memo:

Election Experts Believe Exit Polls Give An Edge And Sway Towards Democrat Candidates.

National Exit Polls Will Skew In Favor Of Democrats This Year, Due To Large Numbers Of Uncontested Democrat Seats In The House Of Representatives.

In The 2002 Midterm Elections, Exit Polling Produced Unusable Data.

In 2000, Exit Polling Malfunctioned And Incorrectly Projecting Vice President Al Gore As The Winner Of The Crucial Battleground State Of Florida.

Exit Polls Give Democrats An Edge:

Exit Polling Always Tends To "Give An Edge To Democratic Candidates." President of Mitofsky International, Warren Mitofsky: "Mitofsky said exit polls have always tended to give an edge to Democratic candidates ..." (John Cook, "Early Exit Polls Overstated Kerry Results, Media Group Says," Chicago Tribune, 1/20/05)

"[Mitofsky] Said That For Reasons That Remain Unclear, Democratic Voters Are More Likely Than Republicans To Agree To Interview Requests From Pollsters." (John Cook, "Early Exit Polls Overstated Kerry Results, Media Group Says," Chicago Tribune, 1/20/05)

Democrats More Likely Than Republicans To Respond To Exit Polls:

October 2006 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll Found Democrats Were More Likely To Respond To Exit Polls Than Republicans.

72% Of Democrats Responded They Were Very Or Somewhat Likely To Fill Out Questionnaire, Compared To 66% Of Republicans. (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll, 10/26/06)

44% Of Democrats Claimed They Were Very Likely To Fill Out Exit Poll Survey, Compared To 35% Of Republicans. (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll, 10/26/06)

Democrats (37%-10%) And Republicans (25%-18%) Agreed That Democrats Are More Likely To Share How They Voted With A Pollster They Do Not Know. (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll, 10/26/06)
In 2006, Exit Polls Skew In Favor Of Democrats, Due To Large Numbers Of Uncontested Seats In The House:

In 2006, There Are Over 40 Uncontested Democrat Seats And 10 Uncontested GOP Seats, Which Will Overstate National Democrat House Vote In Exit Polling. (National Journal Website, www.nationaljournal.com, Accessed 11/6/06)

In 2004, There Were 39 Uncontested Republican Seats, Compared To 30 Uncontested Democrat Seats. (National Journal Website, www.nationaljournal.com, Accessed 11/6/06)

In 2002, There Were 45 Uncontested Republican Seats, Compared To 36 Uncontested Democrat Seats. (National Journal Website, www.nationaljournal.com, Accessed 11/6/06)

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