John McCain's Experience = Confused and Old
"Politics, as a practice, whatever its professions, has always been the systematic organization of hatreds."
- Henry Adams
This is not going to be an easy campaign for Obama.
His lead in today's polls means nothing --- could be a dead cat bounce after winning the delegates needed for the nomination.
More than likely, the present lead will be wiped out by the Bradley effect (racist voters who lie to pollsters), and the electoral map makes things doubly hard for him.
If he doesn't win Florida or Ohio or Pennsylvania or Michigan (at least three out of four), forget the election.
Reality Check: Obama is not going to win Georgia, or Virginia or all those mountain or southern states that he won in the primaries.
Remember how strong Howard Dean looked before the Iowa primary four years ago? What happened to his 50 state strategy then?
If Obama is going to win, he has to go back to the Democratic heartland and he has to play hardball.
The good news. He seems to have learned the game. The harsh spring primaries against Clinton were a good preseason for him.
Yesterday's contra temps was classic Political Jujitsu.
You take the opponent's best issue and flip it. When you see the force coming at you, you redirect your opponent's momentum. His best issues are heartbreakingly turned against him. It takes the wind out of a campaign.
Previously, Obama was ambivalent about playing the harsh political game, which opened up many opportunities for Hillary to successfully upend his message in the primaries.
Yesterday's resignation of his advisor and Vice Presidential vetter, James Johnson, could have been a tough day for Obama.
Instead, the Obama campaign changed the subject and started what should be a long running attack of political jujitsu against McCain, using the strength of McCain's persona and his core themes --- that he is experienced and reliable --- against him.
When McCain blurted out on the Today Show that "It's not too important" if American troops come home from Iraq, the Obama campaign hammered at him. Sen. Kerry called him "out of touch."
Other Obama advisors said that McCain seems "confused" and pointed out a "disturbing pattern" of previous errors about the Sunnis and the Shiites.
The Obama campaign seems wisely determined to come at McCain early and define him.
When McCain says "I am experienced," the Obama campaign will remind us --- code talk --- that McCain is "tied" to Washington lobbyists and that he is "confused" and not very likely, or able, to protect us. As Obama said a few weeks ago, "He seems to have lost his bearings."
Obama needs to do this every day until the election --- because we know that Straight Talk McCain is going to keep making mistakes --- and hope that the strategy doesn't backfire with its ageist undertones.
In 2004, the Republicans crippled John Kerry by discrediting his strengths ---his patriotism, Catholicism, character and well-documented war hero record --- with innuendos and falsehoods --- a classic Rovian Republican tactic.
The 527 soft money independent Republican ad groups are going to raise hundreds of million of dollars to smear Obama --- he needs to fight back.
As George Bernard Shaw said:
"An election is a moral horror, as bad as battle except for the blood; a mud bath for every soul concerned."
write: jfleetwood@aol.com
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I think the Dems should run a series of ads titled "McCain debates McCain #1,2...etc.
Each one is a series of McCain flip-flops.
This way they will never ever have to look as if they are attacking him since IT'S HIS OWN WORDS!
That is a great idea. I think there is a Youtube video out there that shows his fip, flops. but they should arrange it in a debate type format. having some one ask the question and then have both Mccain's answer it. That is a great idea.
I disagree that Obama is going to lose Virginia. I also think that he only has to win two out the four "big states" mentioned at the beginning. Although I think he has a solid chance of winning at least three of those states. Being a resident of Georgia, I understand the uphill battle ahead, but the 50 state strategy isn't so much about winning every state, but making the republicans max out heir resources playing defence in formally"safe" states. The black population in Georgia makes this aspect of the strategy very plausible. My crystal ball is in the shop getting repairs, but I feel very confident that Obama can get the 270 electoral college votes with room to spare.
All Obama needs to do to devastate McCain's claim of foreign policy expertise is just keep running and rerunning videos of McCain's "expert" pre-war predictions of what was going to happen once we invaded Iraq.
Never mind the rest--that he is out of touch, he has so bought into the false notion that our enemy in Iraq is al Qaeda that he thinks al Qaeda terrorists are being trained by Iran, etc. All true, but more subtle than his own wrong words that are now only laughable.
If the Democratic party manages to lose this election to John McCain, it should be disbanded and never spoken of again. If they have learned nothing from Rove and Cheney, they should be cast out of this nation never to return. All Obama has to do is tell the truth and debate them on each and every issure they raise. Republicans don't have a leg to stand on on ANY IMPORTANT ISSUE.
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I agree. But now Obama is running much less well against McCain, than a generic Democrat is running against a generic Republican.
"Republicans don't have a leg to stand on on ANY IMPORTANT ISSUE."
If you believe this then Obama is going to loose. The three things that will sink Obama.
TAXES
TAXES
TAXES
How is he going to pay for all that he promissed while campaining during an economic downturn and rising prices? The upper and middle classes are taxed too much as it is. Add that the middle class does not like Obamas values anyway and he is in trouble.
Attacking McCain as a dotty old guy will not do Obama a bit of good in the swing state of Florida.
dear Blogger prove your assertion.
was the Bradly-effect being at work in the primary. was it Bradly effect when HRC lost her 14% lead in Indiana and only won by less then 1%. was it Bradly effect that Obama lost by the numbers that was said he will lose in WV. you can make assertion but it would be nice for your credibility if they were supported by facts, it is not like there is a short of statistics here we just went through 50+ "primaries"
this whole thing does not really matter, being anti-obama is the only why you could get attention in this Obama-loving-world. i understand but dont act like obama has not competed in any primary against a white candidtae who used the " vote for the white guy" card.
See Blake Fleetwood's Profile
The two cases that I remember clearly are in California and in New Hampshire, where the last polls showed Obama coming up or winning and he didn't.
In Indiana, the last polls did not have Clinton ahead by 14%. They had it tied and Hillary won. Hillary did better than the last polls in WV, Ky, Penn, and a number of other states.
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