What is Obama Afraid Of? Clinton's Popular Vote Landslide?

22% of Democratic voters say Obama should withdraw; 22% want Clinton to drop out.

What's going on?

Interestingly, Republicans are more eager to see Clinton drop out rather than Obama. Forty-one percent (41%) of GOP voters say the former First Lady should withdraw, while just 24% say the same about the Senator from Illinois, according to Rasmussen.

Are Republicans more afraid of Clinton than of Obama?

Among unaffiliated voters, 30% say Clinton should drop out, while 25% say the same about Obama.

The pundits have been touting the sudden rush by Obama supporters -- Pat Leahy, Chris Dodd, and others -- for Clinton to drop out of the presidential race --- no surprise here --- but most voters want to see how it will play out.

A solid majority of Democrats, 62%, aren't ready for either candidate to leave the race. Nationally, Clinton and Obama are running essentially even, according to likely Democratic Primary Voters in the Rasmussen Report's daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Obama supporters are trying to sell the line that the race is over -- and create a self-fulfilling prophecy, with Clinton monies and support drying up. It's a good strategy if you are scared that something will come up and sabatoge Obama's campaign.

No question Clinton is a long shot, maybe 20% according to the political trading markets, but the possibility is there.

Hey, the New York Giants were a much bigger underdog to win the Superbowl just a few months ago.

It's likely that Clinton might win the popular vote in various scenarios, according to predictions in Jay Cost's realistic spreadsheet at RealClearPolitics.

The spreadsheet is based on the popular vote and polls right now.

If Clinton runs the table, wins Pennsylvania by 60%, and wins (or comes real close) in North Carolina and Indiana -- and with voters in Florida and Michigan counted -- her large popular vote majorities will be hard to ignore, which is what Obama fears.

Bottom line, if the Democrats stand to lose Florida and Ohio and Arkansas because Obama is at the top of the ticket, the Superdelegates will have hard thinking to do if they want a Democrat in the White House next year.

Also troubling are the polls that show that more Clinton supporters 28% will bolt the party for McCain if Obama heads the ticket, versus Obama voters 19% who will bolt, if Clinton wins the nomination. (Gallup Poll) These are the Reagan, blue collar, Catholic Republicans, whom every Presidential candidate needs to win to gain the Presidency.

This fear that Clinton might surpass him in the popular vote is why Obama is so desperately trying to disenfranchise voters in these two populous states; and why Obama is trying so hard to get Hillary to drop out of, what most observers see, is still an open race.

Let the voters decide and then we can all feel comfortable backing the popular vote leader.

Relax, it will be over soon enough.

As Cost says, "Here's the broader point. We have a large number of unknown factors. For many of them, we have very little idea what values they will ultimately take. What we do know is that small changes in several of them could induce large changes in the vote count. This makes it extremely difficult to be as precise as many commentators have been. We need to be wary of all the uncertainty we face here.

"It is for this reason that I offer for public consumption the following Excel spreadsheet. It is set up to enable you to plug turnout and vote margins in, and see what effect the changes will have on the different vote counts. It seems to me that, rather than have Politico, the Times, or the Post outline which outcomes are possible, all of us should just take a look for ourselves."

"If Sen. Obama wins the popular vote then the choice will be easier.

"But if Hillary wins the popular vote but can't quite catch up with the delegate votes, then you have to just ask yourself, 'Which is more important, and who is more likely to win in November?" former President Bill Clinton told ABC earlier this week.

If Obama really is so far ahead, what does he have to lose? Let Florida and Michigan be counted. Let all the other votes be counted.

Obama would still be the favorite. And such a bold move would show a real courage and confidence that would unite Democrats and the rest of the country.

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Comments

[MaineMike]

Despite the fact that this race is based on delegates and not on the popular vote, looking at the popular vote in Jay Cost’s spreadsheet may prove to be useful.

The only way the popular vote could possibly be useful, however, is if the entire popular vote is considered. Pointing out that one candidate or the other has a popular vote lead while excluding this contest or that contest proves absolutely nothing. Obviously picking and choosing which contests are included and excluded will determine the outcome.

So for these numbers to be meaningful all contests should be included. That eliminates the spreadsheet rows that exclude MI, FL, and the caucus estimates. I don’t know why anyone would use the Washington Primary numbers instead of the Washington Caucus numbers. The Washington Primary was non-binding and the caucus is what counted. 40% of the voters in MI voted for “uncommitted” and if nothing else, these were votes against Clinton and therefore should clearly be counted in Obama’s column. So that leaves us with row #47, the only total that appears to count all the contests. Given the estimates at the top of the spreadsheet, which appear to be in Clinton’s favor, Obama is still in the lead.

Can anyone find a link to a page that describes how the caucus estimates were calculated? I have not been able to find that information.

[realistxxx]

Two Words to describe Blake's Argument:

Twisted and Dishonest

No wonder so many are sick of Clintonian "rules".

[Gibbons]

The rules have been around for years. Obama supporters are afraid for the race to run to completion so you effectively want to disenfranchise the remaining states that would be Obmamian rules Brilliant.

[Blake Fleetwood - Huffpost Blogger]

This is the level of argument --- personal and abusive to anyone who disagrees -- that so many of Obama's supporters indulge in. This is well documented by any of the bloggers --- See Taylor Marsh -- who have written anything supportive of Clinton or critical of Obama.

It disgusts me that Democrats have stooped to this level. If you have an argument, make it, but don't call people names.

[vaughan]

Meanwhile, Hillary and Bill Clinton are working on ways to subvert the 80 percent of the Democratic voters who have already voted. I do not trust them to support Senator Obama when he receives the nomination. I can't imagine Bill helping to campaign for Obama after he's spent all this time dissing him and praising the Republican nominee!

They are intentionally hurting Obama's reputation and it is hurting the Party.

[pcastro64]

Seems to me, Obama's hurting his own campaign. He knew Rev. Wright would be a liability if their connection ever came out, but he chose not to do anything about it. I'm amazed at the Obama supporters continually making excuses for his bad judgment!!

[indie17]

Let's talk about disingenuous statements, Blake.

1) Every single scenario where Hillary can win the popular vote includes counting the Michigan votes, or not counting the many caucus votes. Yes, this is breaking the rules. Yes, this is using Jay Cost's spreadsheet.

2) Neither Obama nor his supporters are 'afraid' of the numbers. What we are concerned about is the slime that Hillary's campaign is spewing. These tactics get traction in the mind-numbing corporate media. Examples: Obama's run is a fairy tale, Obama wasn't really against the war, Obama is like Jesse Jackson (they're both black, get it), Obama isn't pro-choice, Obama only wins caucuses, Obama only wins states that don't matter, Obama is all talk and no action, Obama plagiarizes, Obama's followers are a cult, Obama isn't ready on day one, Obama might not be able to handle a terrorist attack, McCain is better than Obama, Obama has no experience -- only a speech in 2002, I was under sniper fire in Tuzla, the Nobel Prize winner who brokered peace in N. Ireland is a crankpot, Bill Richardson is Judas, I was never pro-NAFTA, Obama is disenfranchising FL and MI, Obama's pastor is no good, Bill says Obama is picking on me, Obama lied about being a professor, Obama takes money from oil companies, my donors are more important than the little people voting, Obama shouldn't win because I am entitled, even if it takes superdelegates overturning the will of the voters.

[idontthinkthisishelping]

"Blake?" Really?

[benjaminblue]

First you write that "nationally, Clinton and Obama are running essentially even," Then, a few lines on, you acknowledge that "no question Clinton is a long shot, maybe 20%."

Only those who are not terribly good at math would suggest that an 80%/20% outcome is "essentially even."

And only those caught up in grandious, self-important dreams -- such as Mr. Bush, who deceives himself and believes he will be successful in his vanity war -- continue to throw money away when the numbers are overwhelmingly against them.

Are you suggesting that Senator Clinton and Mr. Bush are similarly self-delusional fools?

[Amminadab]

Ummmm.... "running essentially even" was referring to national polls.

"20%" was referring to her chances of gaining the nomination.

Try reading for comprehension next time.

[Blake Fleetwood - Huffpost Blogger]

They are "even" as far as the popular votes cast. This is what should govern the selection.

After 2000 and Gore won the popular vote and lost the election, I am disgusted with all other forms of voting, as most other people are.

[Whinger]

Mathmatics speak louder than wishful thinking Mr Fleetwood!

[WiseOne]

The "mathematics" of "popular" vote have NEVER picked a President, IN AND OF THEMSELVES.

Need I remind you of the electoral college?

Apparently.

[Countess]

Clinton is still working hard to rid the democratic party of all of its progressive impulses and restore her husband's brand which is selling out american workers to the highest bidders. She is even worse than Bill Clinton and is a neocon true believer.

[vallon]

...and if we double the votes Mrs. Clinton got in the states she won...

[LoKeys]

Written by another Clinton Lackey here who just can't see or ADMIT the writing on the wall. It's over for your girl hillary , get a grip....

[Jules36]

Typical comment from an Obama supporter who, like his/her Presidenbtial Idol, has come to believe his/her own press. Obama's smugness, reflected in LoKeys' comment, is galling.
Obama wants to accuse Clinton of dirty campaign tactics? How about getting a couple of lackeys (Dodd, a primary loser; and Leahy, an insiginigficant figure trying desperately to make a name for huimself using any means possible) to call for Clinton's resignation from the race -- and on top of that, the Obama campaign denying that they are behind it.
"Change?" Sounds like the same game of politics to me. And until Obama puts forth SPECIFICALLY how he will change things in Washington, D.C. he's no different than any other political candidate -- except that, as the Republicans recognize, is the most "beatable" candidate against McCain. When the voters hold McCain's experience next to Obama's, few will have any question about whom they want sitting next to the red phone. They will far more comfortable with someone who has some miles behind him rather than "the fresh-faced first-term Senator from Illinois."
And then we're stuck in the same Republican, conservative, ass-backwa­rds-way-of­-thinking ditch that we have been the last eight years, and another 100 years in Iraq.

[Bertrude]

The race is over Jules, go get a McCain shirt, she is done. Hey Obama supporters we should start calling Hillary...­.HILAABEE, because she is nothing more then a democratic version of Mike Hukabee. She has no way of winning and she keep s going.

[cheesegypsy]

I hope Clinton can apply all this fuzzy math to fix the economy.

[classykaren]

Dont worry after Rendell stupid comment she has little chance of taking Pennsylvania

[Amminadab]

Good. All Obama has to do is win Pennsylvania and Hillary will bow out.

Can he do it?

Should be simple.

[Bertrude]

She cannot fix the economy, her campaign is in a recession now.

[BitJam]

She'll just loan the economy $5 million.

[HaveyouPerspective]

Words escape me, as apparently they did Mr. Fleetwood.

[MPeter]

Clinton supporters have changed the finish line everytime they have been beaten. They have not the delegate count, lost the popular vote, and now the so-called superdelegates are peeling away faster than the Clintons can lie. Still, the supporters of this divisive couple always find a stoopid excuse to advance. Regardless of how much race-baiting and fearmongering, she will not win PA with a 60% landslide. She is going to go on and lost most of the other states then you can tell all the lies you want, including promoting Repugs as you have been doing. The game is over, get out.

[Amminadab]

Clinton supporters have not changed the finish line. The finish line continues to be 2024. Why should she drop out before someone reaches the finish line?

[mounthoodliberal]

"If Clinton runs the table, wins Pennsylvania by 60%, and wins (or comes real close) in North Carolina and Indiana -- and with voters in Florida and Michigan counted -- her large popular vote majorities will be hard to ignore, which is what Obama fears."

you've got to be kidding....wake up dude, FL and MI are not being counted...that's old news. especially in MI, where obama was not on the ballot at all because he followed party rules. "runs the table?" like that's going to happen.

count me in, though, with those who think she should not drop out until after PA, IN and NC. she'll win PA by 10, IN is a tossup, but she'll lose NC. then she needs to step down.

and what's that about if obama getting the nomination more hillary supporters will vote for mccain? that's a reason to vote for hillary? put down the wacky tobacky...

most of your post is all about denial of reality, wishful thinking, and irrationality....

[DoTheMath]

That's right, Bill, just keep moving those goal posts, and she's bound to nail it eventually. You do know she lost Texas, right? This new one does have some potential, though, seeing as how caucuses won't contribute as many "popular votes" to your total. Didn't somebody once say it was all about the delegates?

[several]

What is it about this primary contest that is making otherwise seemingly intelligent people so incredibly bad at math?

Look at the pledged delegate results of even the rosiest of scenarios for Hillary. Don't care to do the math yourself? Others have done it for you: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/4/162042/3056

It's been said repeatedly, but what the hell, I'll say it again...

There are only two ways Clinton can become the nominee:

1) Obama is caught in a career ending fiasco (ala Spitzer)
2) The superdelegates overturn the will of the people and give us a repeat of '68

The Clinton campaign continues in hopes one of these two scenarios will occur.

But don't get me wrong. The Senator from La Mancha has every right to continue battling windmills all the way to the convention if she believes that's the right thing to do for her career, her legacy, her party and her country.

[HaveyouPerspective]

I like your style, dude.