Less than six months out from the November 2nd US midterm elections, pundits continue to predict that Republicans will reduce Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, perhaps take control of the House. Seven factors will determine the final outcome.
First, the economy will play an important role. While most Americans feel the economy has stabilized, there remains a great deal of apprehension. Although 55 percent of recent poll respondents feel the US is headed in the wrong direction, most trust Democrats more than Republicans to address jobs and the economy.
Nonetheless, if US unemployment remains in the nine percent range, this will hurt Democratic candidates. And, that's probably going to be the case; economic recovery is not going to be rapid, due to the fact that small businesses aren't hiring - a situation the Obama Administration is trying to get Congress to address.
Second, many pundits believe the election will be a referendum on President Obama. At this point, Obama is like Ronald Reagan in that voters like him personally more than they like his specific policies. The President's favorability ratings exceed his unfavorable scores by a twelve-point margin; however, his job approval ratings show an even split.
Third, Congress is much more unpopular than is the President. The latest polls indicate that 65-75 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing. But there is dissatisfaction with both Parties; in voters' eyes Democrats and Republicans share the blame and voters split on whether to support a generic Democrat or Republican on November 2nd.
There is an anti-incumbent mood in the country. A recent Pew Research Poll found that 27 percent of respondents were unlikely to vote for an incumbent candidate. And there is continuing anger over the bailouts. The same poll found that 49 percent of respondents were less likely to vote for a candidate if they had voted for "providing major loans to banks during the 2008 financial crisis"
Fourth, the Tea Party Movement is impacting the Republican Party. An ABC News/Washington Post poll indicated that 27 percent of respondents supported the Tea Party movement - although opinions differed about what this movement represented. In the past several weeks we've seen Tea Party activists play a major role in Republican primaries in Utah and Kentucky. Some of the Tea Party candidates represent radical positions, such as getting rid of Social Security and Medicare, and it remains to be seen how well this will play in a general election.
Fifth, non-political events could affect the November 2nd outcome. 2010 has already seen a failed attempt to ignite a massive bomb in Times Square, the disruption of transatlantic air traffic by ashes from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, depression of the international economy by economic turmoil in Greece, and a massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Another event - the capture of Osama bin Laden or the collapse of the global economy - could prove decisive.
Nonetheless, as November 2nd draws closer, it seems more likely that how well Democrats and Republicans do will depend less on exogenous factors such as how voters feel about President Obama or the Tea Party movement, and more on endogenous considerations such as the relative financial strength of the Democratic and Republican Parties and the quality of their candidates.
Sixth, Democrats have raised more money than Republicans. For example, at the end of April, DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) had $27.3M cash on hand compared to the NRCC's $11.4M. However, ROLLING STONE recently reported that Bush villains Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie are leading an independent fundraising effort to benefit Republican candidates. In some races the financial hand of Rove could prove to be decisive.
Finally, even in a tumultuous year, what will be decisive is the quality of the Democratic and Republican candidates. For example, Democrats are prepared to cede a Senate seat in North Dakota, where Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan is retiring, because they don't have a compelling candidate to compete with Republican John Hoeven. On the other hand, Oregon incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is expected to easily win reelection in November, because Republicans don't have an effective candidate. But in Missouri, where Republican Senator Kit Bond is retiring, the competition is expected to be very close; the prospective opponents will likely be Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and archconservative Republican Congressman Roy Blunt.
On November 2nd it's probable that Democrats will lose seats in the House and Senate but still retain control of both bodies. Voters are angry, but their anger is diffuse, directed at incumbents in both Parties. There's unlikely to be a strong tide that will carry sweep Republicans into power across the country.
The wild card is the economy and, more generally, unforeseen catastrophic events. In a strange year, there's an unusual amount of uncertainty in the election.
Van Gosse: Why President Obama Is Not (and Is) a Socialist
Leo W. Gerard: GOP Wants a Country by Corporations for Corporations
Matthew Jacob: In Election Years, Food Is Fodder
Don't blame me, I voted for Capuano.
Doesn't she have to have used up all our bad-candidate karma for a generation or two?
I think it would be better for Obama to lose the house, he can then point to the republicans in the house in 2012 if things weren't done. If the democrats have both houses for 4 years, in 2012, the republican can say "look, the democrats have controlled everything for 4 years, and we still have problems". That can hurt.
Thank you Nikki, thank you Rand, thank you $arah, thank you Ms. Lowden, thank you Rep. King, thank you Mr. Souder, thank you Gov. Brewer, thank you Mitch, thank you, thank you, thanks to all of you. Way too many to list here.
The fundraising advantage for Dems is immaterial. Everyone on the GOP side seems to be a multi-millionaire: McMahon in CT, Whitman in CA, Fiorina in CA, that chicken lady in NV.
In 2008 and early 2009 Dems were talking of even bigger gains, especially in the Senate in 2010. Based on 2008 results Dems saw Senate wins in 2010 in OH, NH, MO and KY. Right now, it seems only KY could have a chance of going Dem.
If Reid wins in NV he MUST step down as leader. The leader must come from a reliably blue state so he can set agenda without fear of what happened to Daschle or Foley. That is why GOP leaders come from TX, MI, TN, IN, KY; all red states.
Dem majority in the House of 5-8 seats means Republicans will have effective control due to remaining blue dogs having to vote against Obama agenda to save their own seats.
There is still a very real chance that on election night New England may be more red than blue, something unthinkable 18 months ago. There is already a Dem in MA, possibly one in CT, added to the retained seat in NH and the two in ME. This problem could spread to the mid atlantic states with GOP pick ups in DE and PA. And I would not count NY out for the GOP either.
The GOP will make the current issue over his being offered a position into something greater than Watergate and it will let Toomey squeak by. The GOP message machine is no match for Jesus Christ when it gets into high gear.
Only Stupak or a Stupak clone could win the UP district. I've not heard any hot air over trying to run a leftie there. Any citations of an ongoing offense on that front?
AS for the primary, Friday showed Whitman up double digits in the primary.
CT is not for McMahon to win. It is for Blumenthal to lose. When some one runs that many years with no serious challenger, he gets careless.
NV, CO, LA, AR, MO, IA, IL, KY, IN, OH, PA, DE, NH, FL, GA, and NC are all races that are even or leaning Republican that the Democrats could possibly pick up. With Ron Glassman as the candidate in Arizona, and Hayworth knocking off McCain with Tea Party "energy", AZ could be in play too.
It's still too early to really tell, but I'm excited.
I am feeling very hopeful and excited about our chances.
Fanned
The investigative journalist who broke the Keating 5 story, exposed the corruption of former Governor Fife Symington and exposed Sheriff Joe Arpaio for the thug that he is, has qualified for the Democratic primary in AZ to challenge McCain. John Dougherty is the only Democratic candidate that could beat McCain.
There is absolutely no substance on his campaign site and there is even less mention of relevant experiences or even where he stands on the issues. How is this joker supposed to play statewide? Just because he was a journalist who broke a story?
I don't live or vote in Arizona, but it is my opinion that Glassman would crush this clown. Even if you just sit back and consider the websites of both candidates, and that conclusion becomes even more clear. Glassman looks to be the real deal and even if John McCain survives the Republican primary, I think that Glassman has a serious shot at knocking him off.
Agree and especially hope the Latino community will vote in large numbers. Show those slugs what you think of them!
Instead of coming together as a nation we are now eating our own. 63 Billion to continue a lost war while cutting ~23 Billion from Americans who need help. Bin Ladin couldn't be happier..