This summer there's a lot at stake in Washington. The Congress and the White House are struggling over an agreement to extend the US debt limit before the August 2nd deadline. Meanwhile the economy has slowed and we may be sliding back into a recession, so a second stimulus is being debated. We're heading for a Tipping Point that will determine Obama's political future.
The notion of the Tipping Point was popularized in a bestseller by New Yorker staff writer Malcolm Gladwell. He defines the Tipping Point as "the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point," where a previously rare phenomenon becomes commonplace or where a social or political movement takes a new direction.
Recently in American politics we've seen a tipping point almost every year. In 2008, we saw two: first, Barack Obama snatched the Democratic nomination from Hillary Clinton -- the Obama nomination tipping point was probably his Philadelphia speech where he spoke about his pastor Jeremiah Wright and race. The other tipping point occurred during the second Presidential debate, where John McCain came across as senile, while Obama looked presidential.
In 2009, the tipping point came on February 19th when CNBC commentator, Rick Santelli, ranted about the government and threatened a reincarnation of the Boston Tea Party. Conservatives and Fox News commentators seized on this idea and the Tea Party movement was born, culminating in demonstrations, and Tea Party candidates being featured in the November 2010 mid-term elections, which caused Democrats to lose control of the House of Representatives.
Since the advent of the Tea Party, there hasn't been another tipping point in US politics but that hiatus will likely end in August. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has warned that the debt limit must be extended by August 2nd or the government will go into default. Democrats and Republicans agree this is a hard deadline, although some GOP Congressmen minimize the impact. The two Parties are attempting to negotiate an extension but, as of this writing, are miles apart. For Republicans, an essential element of any agreement would be reduction in entitlements, such as Medicare. For Democrats, an essential element would be the elimination of the Bush tax cuts for the rich.
As if this situation was not grim enough, the US economic recovery appears to be slowing and many experts fear we are sliding back into recession. On June 3rd the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that only 54,000 jobs were added in May and unemployment remained unchanged at 9.1 percent. Consumer confidence has plummeted and approximately half of Americans believe the US is heading towards another Great Depression. The latest polling shows that Americans are far more concerned about employment and the economy (48 percent) than they are about the budget deficit (10 percent).
The conventional wisdom is that President Obama is in trouble because of unemployment, but the looming August crisis can be his opportunity. Guardian columnist Alex Slater observed that it's not simply "the economy stupid" but more generally about the direction of the US economy, "about hope." And hope is Obama's specialty.
There's every indication that Republicans do not have a clue about job creation and they are likely to refuse to raise the debt limit. If this happens it will both trigger a new depression and destroy the Republican Party.
Even the GOP comes to its senses and raises the debt limit, they do not have a realistic strategy to reemploy America. That's a huge opportunity for Obama, a potential Tipping Point.
Malcolm Gladwell writes that a Tipping Point requires three elements: "the Law of the Few, the Stickiness Factor, and the Power of Context." Tipping points require a few very influential people. In this case there is no one more influential than Barack Obama, who remains the most popular active US politician.
Gladwell observes that Tipping Points take advantage of unique windows of opportunity, context. In August we will have the context for a radical transformation of the economy.
Finally, a critical element of Tipping Points is stickiness, the ephemeral quality that "compels the phenomenon to "stick' in the minds of the public and influence their future behavior." Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal had stickiness.
One of Barack Obama's defining political characteristics is his ability to rise to the occasion with a powerful speech. We saw this when he burst onto the political scene with his keynote address at the 2004 Democratic convention. This January Americans were moved by his memorial address in Tucson. Once again, Obama needs to summon his oratorical skills and present his own "new deal."
In August, the US will come to a critical political moment. Whether we use this to go forward with a just economy or continue our descent into plutocracy will depend upon President Obama. For better or for worse it is his Tipping Point.
Paul Abrams: Directly Hiring 4M Workers: "A Line in the Sand" for 2012
hey would you mind clarifying FULL CURRENCY destruction ?
also , Bernanke is a REpublican so are most of Wall St. CEO and big shots.
Alas, that is all he is good for...making speeches.
This is the clear, factual reality the corporate media lies about and covers up.
Really? http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20027090-503544.html BS is Obama's specialty.
Thomas Jefferson
The top 1% would not be harmed by jacking up their tax bracket five percent or so. They actually got the benefit of money borrowed from social security to cover the true deficit the last 30 years. They need to start paying it back. When (if) the economy heats up our federal budget should be as follows: revenues = current expenditures + amortization of the debt and unfunded liabilities of the entitlements. Are we grown up enough to do that?
It's their turn to pay some back.....unless they want 280 million Americans tempted to strap on bombs.
The two parties represent the same class interests. It wouldn't "make a difference" if they approved the election of a talking dog, our slide into history's trash can will not stop or even slow down. We passed that particular "tipping point" quite a while ago.
Differences in parties exist but in order to see what a Democrat could do in the WH we have to elect one first.
where are the JOBS???? GOPers ?
HA i know you want to CUT JOBS so UNEMPLOYMENT Rate goes Up and OBAMA becomes a ONE term Prez !!!
I agree with what you say
BUT private sectors ie Big and Small BIZ know that there is no DEMAND (consumer driven economy is gone with the wind )so they do not want to create JOBS...........ALSO Most Business people LOVE TAX CUTs and Are aiming to bring back GOPer rulers .........so they get the BUSH tax cuts to become PERMANENT and also ....... Establish the PERMANENT REPUBLICAN MAJORITY ................ie and WILL become a ONE PARTY SYSTEM.........which is A TOTALITARIAN system
and if you listen to the Speeches and how they plan to keep the HOUSE and GET the SENATE and the PRESIDENCY you will understand their intent.
SO OBVIOUSLY they will NOT LIFT a FINGER to help OBAMA ie the AMERICAN ECONOMY until AFTER the 2012 .
Other thing i noticed is that the number of private sector jobs created in MAY was really 83,000 .................and because the GOV fired 29,000 people , the total
so INSTEAD of USING the 83,000 .......the all the MEDIA minused and said 54,000............................so you sould be satified that GOV fired 29,000 people!!!!!!!!!!!
As if Obama had set up that system !!! No one person can dismantle that system.
SO, Stop blaming Obama in that BLANKET manner that you do.because you lose credibility
Only the Progressives have some LEGITIMATE criticism of Obama ...........and even those do not take into consideration the CONTEXT. which is THE Biggest FINANCIAL Crisis/crash of the last 70 years since the Great DEPRESSION.
This is a NEW NORMAL , so none of the OLD Normal cliches will or should this time.!!
Obama will be just the better the alternative in 2012, both for US and for the USA internationally.
Where is it written that the increased wealth due to the increase in productivity should go to the one percent of the population that is already obscenely wealthy?
bery well said..........BRavo why should only the super rich expect Eternal Prosperity ? and the others year over year poverty.?
This is totally untenable..................this is not FAIR and Democratic American any more.