Seeking 60 Seats

Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the Senate that depends upon the support of independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders. However, Lieberman supports John McCain for President, which suggests the Connecticut Senator may vote with Republicans in a new Congress. Therefore, if Democrats want to increase their majority to 60, so that Barack Obama's agenda would not be held hostage by Republican filibusters, they will have to add 10 new Senators. A big task, but not impossible if Obama scores a big win over McCain.

First they have to hold onto the 12 Democratic seats that are up for reelection. Most incumbent Democratic Senators have safe races. The most threatened seat is that of Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu. For months Landrieu has maintained a single-digit lead over Republican John Kennedy -- six percentage points in the latest poll. Many Louisianans credit Landrieu with doing a good job after Hurricane Katrina; on the other hand, the Democratic base has lost many African-American voters. Prediction: narrow Landrieu victory.

Eleven races involve Republican Senate seats that Democrats have some likelihood of acquiring. The most probable pickup is in Virginia, where Senator John Warner is retiring. The contest pits two former governors Republican Bob Marshall and Democrat Mark Warner (no relation to John Warner). Mark Warner has consistently maintained a double-digit lead and is ahead by 27 points in the latest poll. Prediction: big Warner victory.

New Mexico Republican Senator Pete Domenici is also retiring. The Democratic candidate is Representative Tom Udall, Steward Udall's son, who he has run a strong race against Republican Steve Pearce. The latest polls show Udall up by 23 percent. Prediction: big Udall victory.

For months New Hampshire Republican Senator John Sununu has trailed Democratic challenger Jean Shaheen; she's currently leading by 14 percentage points. Sununu's only chance would be a big McCain victory in New Hampshire, but the most recent poll shows Obama leading by 11 percent. Prediction: Shaheen victory.

Colorado Republican Senator Wayne Allard is also retiring. The Democratic candidate is Representative Mark Udall - Mo Udall's son and Tom Udall's cousin. Mark Udall has consistently maintained a single-digit lead over Republican Bob Schaffer; the latest poll shows Udall opening up a ten-point gap. Prediction: Udall victory.

At a minimum, Democrats will pick up four seats and have a 54-46 majority. However, in Alaska, ancient Republican Senator Ted Stevens is getting the race of his life from Democratic challenger Mark Begich, the Mayor of Anchorage. Polls have consistently showed this race to be within the polling margin of error. Obama is running surprisingly well in Alaska and could help Begich. Prediction: narrow win for Begich.

In Oregon, Senator Gordon Smith is in a tight race with Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. The latest poll shows Smith up by four percentage points with 28 percent undecided. Obama is ahead in Oregon by six percentage points. If there's a big Democratic turnout, Merkley would benefit. Prediction: narrow win for Merkley.

When media personality Al Franken announced he was a candidate for the Minnesota Senate seat previously held by the late Paul Wellstone, many Democrats figure he would have an easy time defeating Republican Norm Coleman. But the latest polls show Coleman leading by ten percentage points. The good news for Franken is that Obama leads McCain by double digits; a big Democratic turnout will help Franken. Prediction: narrow win for Franken.

For months it looked like Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins would handily defeat Democratic Challenger Tom Allen, but the latest poll shows her margin has narrowed to 7 points. Obama leads McCain by 22 points. If Obama has coattails then Allen will win. Prediction: narrow win for Allen.

If everything goes right for Democrats they will pick up four more seats and have a 58-42 Senate majority. They have three chances to win the 59th and 60th seat and they all depend upon Obama's southern strategy. In Mississippi former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove is locked in a tight race with incumbent Senator Roger Wicker -- who was appointed to serve out the unfinished portion of Trent Lott's term. This is another state where Obama voters may help a Democratic senatorial candidate as Obama trails McCain by only six points. Prediction: too close to call.

North Carolina Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole is in a close contest with Democratic challenger Kay Hagan. The latest polls show Dole up by 10 points, but Obama is only down by 4 points. Prediction: too close to call.

Finally, Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn is having a tough time fending Democratic challenger Rick Noriega. One recent poll had Cornyn leading by two points. But Obama is running well in Texas -- he's down by only nine points. Prediction: too close to call.

An Obama landslide will give Democrats a chance of securing 60 Senate seats.

Comments

[FogCityJohn]

Small correction: The Republican candidate for the open Virginia Senate seat is former Governor Jim Gilmore, not "Bob Marshall," whoever that is.

[funnyguy]

The problem with this analysis and the 60-seat imperative is the Democrats never can keep their caucus together like the Reps no matter how many votes they have. Take a look at the House: The Dems have 230+ seats, but they lose 60-70 Democrats on every ideological vote, such as funding the war, just as they lost 25-30 Dem votes in the Senate on telecom immunity and the Kyl-Lieberman resolution.

It will be nice to make Joe Lieberman irrelevant, but you are not paying attention if you think the inherent weaknesses of the congressional Democrats will stop if and when they get to 60 votes in the Senate.

What we need are not more Democrats, but more and better progressive Democrats.

[kauffmanr]

Get 61, take Lierberman's ball and make him go home to mamma McCain.

[jvarga]

They really need 61 seats if you're counting Lieberman.

[ProudLiberalDan]

No, they only need 60 seats. 49 Democrats + Independent Bernie Sanders + 10 new seats and you have 60. It takes 60 votes to cut off a filibuster, not 61 votes.

Lieberman does not need to count in the calculations.

[larry278]

60 Democratic seats in the US Senate will not mean anything unless Sen Reid is replaced as majority leader. The Democrats will never be the party of the sublime but they will continue to be the party of the supine if they keep Reid as majority leader. The Republican minority will continue walking on the dormant Democrats if Reid is allowed to continue being majority leader.

[westwind]

Agreed - Reid does not use any of his power to withhold bills from the floor. He still operates in a world of genteel and reasoned debate, when that age received its final death blows during the Gingrich revolution and Tom DeLay's politics of destruction.

I'm all for taking the high road, but when the opposition shows no mercy to their opponents or the constitution, it is time to return the favor. Reid needs to be a safe an reliable vote for the Democrtas, not their leader.

[ProudLiberalDan]

"He still operates in a world of genteel and reasoned debate, when that age received its final death blows during the Gingrich revolution and Tom DeLay's politics of destruction."

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One of the most frustrating things of the last decade is how the Democrats see politics as a pillow fight while Republicans see it as a knife fight. Guess who's winning, even now that they are in the minority.

Gore didn't stand up and fight in 2000 nor did Kerry in 2004. The Democrats have been cowering and timid for years and years.

Nothing against Reid personally, but please get us a majority leader with fight in him.

The old collegian notion of the Senate hasn't applied for years, if it ever really was that way in reality, which I doubt.