The Great Debate of 2008

So far there have been many surprises in the contest for the 2008 Presidential nomination. Six months ago, it appeared the probable candidates would be Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. After Tuesday's primaries they will be John McCain and either Clinton or Barack Obama. Last year it appeared the leading issue would be the war in Iraq. Now it's likely the great debate will be about the economy.

In 1932 there were no debates between the incumbent Republican President, Herbert Hoover, and the Democratic challenger, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Nonetheless, by the time of the election, most Americans were aware of fundamental differences in their approach to solving the Great Depression. This Fall, when Senator McCain debates Senator Clinton or Obama, Americans will recognize a stark reality: Republicans have learned nothing in eighty years.

The Great Depression was fueled by a combination of irrational market exuberance, unfettered greed, and lack of governmental oversight. The current recession has been powered by the same factors. The period leading up to the 1929 stock-market crash saw irrational exuberance in the form of a speculative investment in stocks. In recent times we've seen the same unwarranted enthusiasm; this time for housing.

In both eras there was unfettered greed; the dominant morality was "what's in it for me." The Great Depression saw a few unscrupulous individuals get rich by peddling penny stocks and other shaky financial vehicles. The current recession saw consumers taken in by pernicious credit-card practices or by sub-prime loans with rates that unexpectedly accelerated.

In both periods there was a woeful lack of Federal oversight. The stock-market abuses in the twenties led to the formation of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and other regulatory agencies. Unfortunately, the current recession was fueled by Bush administration policies that both fueled America's appetite for debt and weakened financial oversight.

In the Fall there will be a series of presidential debates featuring Senator McCain and either Obama or Clinton. The dominant subject will be the recession. While Republicans have had plenty of time to learn from the mistakes that produced the Great Depression, McCain is likely to reprise the rhetoric of former President Hoover; he'll assert that, if left alone, the market will make the necessary adjustments.

Over the past eight decades, the Republican Party has been remarkably consistent in their wrongheaded economic rhetoric: greed is good because it represents the will of the market and monopolies are even better. GOP candidates have promised to cut taxes, minimize the role of the Federal government, and, more recently, reduce entitlements.

It's not difficult to see why Republicans favor cutting the taxes of the rich and powerful; this is a quid pro quo for the GOP's wealthiest donors. Therefore McCain follows the Bush lead and advocates tax reduction as the only way to ease the current recession. Nonetheless, based on America's experience in the Great Depression, cutting taxes won't pull us out of an economic downturn. Nor will the meager economic stimulus package recently passed by Congress.

Similarly, it's not difficult to understand why Republicans seek to minimize the role of the Federal government: the rich and powerful want to have their way with the market without restrictions. But what finally pulled America out of the Great Depression was more government, not less. Republicans ignore the reality that agencies such as the FDIC have helped stabilize the economy.

When we study the lessons of American history, It's obvious that what is needed to remedy the current recession is massive government intervention, investment on a scale that hasn't been seen since Roosevelt's New Deal initiatives. But McCain doesn't favor this strategy; he advocates the same hands off policies that Bush and other Republican dinosaurs have espoused for the last eighty years. In contrast, Senators Clinton and Obama understand the necessity for government intervention.

In the coming 2008 economic debate, there will be two major points of disagreement. The first will be what to do: McCain will advocate passivity; he will take the classic Republican approach, which is to pray that the market will provide the remedy. In contrast, Obama or Clinton will prescribe action; each will suggest their own version of the New Deal.

The second point of disagreement will be how to pay for the necessary fiscal stimulus. McCain's number one priority will be "winning" the war in Iraq, no matter how much time and money is involved. The Democrats' number one priority will be to fix the economy. They will suggest America cannot afford to continue to spend $2 billion per week in Iraq and we should shift the focus of the war to Afghanistan -- a move that will reduce military expenditures and free funds for domestic programs. In addition, Democrats will link "homeland security" to our domestic well being and assert we must strengthen the average American family as an integral part of our "war" on terror.

John McCain was born in 1936 and experienced the Great Depression. Nonetheless, he has chosen to rely upon Republican ideology rather than the hard lessons learned by his and other American families. McCain's behavior proves the old adage: "You can't teach an old [war] horse new tricks."

Comments

[larry278]

John McCain is making voters angry by making nice with the neo-con wing of the GOP & accepting W's endorsment. I could swear that his Barackship & her Hilliaryship are, at the very least, hinting that they advocate a changed from the failed policies of neo-cons & W. John McCain is now bent upon giving the election to Barack Hussein Obama or, maybe, Hillary Rodham Clinton. When John McCain kow-towed to W & the neo-cons to get their support-he established that he wouldn't allow any changes from the failed policies of W & the neo-cons if he becomes POTUS #44. The Afghanistan/Iraq war is a failed enterprise. The economy is tanking. W & the neo-cons continue to support the war in Afghanistan/Iraq. There is a very good case for blaming neo-con & W's economic policies for the sub-prime bubble breaking. Trying to muddle through with failed policies is implicit in John McCain's present campaign. That isn't selling. Change, the mantra of BHO & HRC, is selling. It would be a good idea if the Democrats stated what changes they'd make & how they'd make these changes so they can ice the election. Change will become meaningless buzz word if the Democrats don't say exactly what changes they'd make & state in detail how they'd make these changes. That could prevent a Democrat from being POTUS #44 despite McCain's sticking with failed policies. Either party can loose the election. They may be forced to have a ballot which states none of the above below their names.
Stupidity & hubris afflict both parties. Perhaps neither party can overcome the inertia both parties have shown.

[Guitarsandmore]

Republicans do think the same way as people did in the roaring twenties creating problems everywhere they turn. Democrats are proposing solution after solution. It's a beautiful thing.

[desmirl]

You state that McCain was born in 1936 and experienced the Great Depression. Think about what you wrote. He was an infant, a toddler, and then a pre-school child until 1942, at which time America was at war--which greatly changed the economy--and his father was a Naval Officer. John McCain expeienced NOTHING remotely related to the effects of a Great Depression. McCain's early life was that of a Navy Brat, and it shaped his adult thinking so much that he still thinks in terms of settling INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS with the tools of WAR. McCain admits he knows little about the economy, but you can bet your suspenders that he knows enough about military violence and mayhem to earn, completely, the nickname of Senator McBomb-Bomb.

[Countess]

The democrats have little chance of winning against McCain. The republicans will not give Clinton the free ride that Obama is giving her and she has smeared him so much with her racial and religious poison that he will lose as well which is her only real goal right now.