Liveblogging the Kentucky and Oregon Primaries

7:03 (all times are EDT)
Even though the early returns are tight, it's clear that Senator Clinton will win Kentucky by a West Virginia-sized margin. Speaking of which, I didn't liveblog last week's West Virginia primary, but my post mortem was basically: Senator Obama lost with only 25 percent of the vote. However, on February 5, Senator McCain lost West Virginia, too. What was Senator McCain's percentage of the West Virginia caucus results? One. One percent. Why aren't there any questions about Senator McCain's "white working class problem"?

7:08
And by way of tradition, here's my prediction for tonight's results:

7:10
Kentucky results so far:
Clinton 52
Obama 45
Everyone has called Kentucky for Senator Clinton.

7:11
Back to the "white working class problem". The subtext is that white Appalachian voters are racists, regardless of party, because they refuse to vote for a black candidate. Other white Appalachian voters are stupids because they've been duped into believing these ridiculous e-mails about the Senator's religion. So my question is: Why is this a problem for Senator Obama and not a problem for the racist/stupid white Appalachian voters?

7:14
Terry McAuliffe on MSNBC now. "Let everyone vote" -- this is an interesting talking point from the Clinton campaign. Correct me in the comments if I'm wrong, but even if Senator Clinton had dropped out, wouldn't her name still be on the ballot in the remaining primaries? Meanwhile, McAuliffe just said that he believes Senator Clinton will have more delegates before the convention. Yep.

7:21
McAuliffe is fear mongering now: "Who's going to keep me safe? Who will be the best on national security? And if you look at the exit data, Chris, you know -- it's not about race and gender, it's about who they best think can deal with these economic issues and keep us safe." OLBERMANN: "Isn't that essentially a Trojan horse you've brought in on Senator McCain's behalf?" McAULIFFE: "Hillary beats John McCain on these national security issues." So much for the so-called cease-fire.

7:31
Kentucky margin:
Clinton 58
Obama 38

7:35
Chuck Todd: Oregon is only 3 percent African American. By the way, Oregon is also 3 percent Roloff.

7:46
Plug! Plug! Cliff Schecter is liveblogging over here. We'll be stealing each other's snarky observations tonight.

7:48
Cliff reminds us that Alex Castellanos is on CNN again tonight (and looking especially Robert Goulet-ish, by the way). For those of you unfamiliar with Castellanos' race-baiting work... Watch this:

Why does CNN allow Castellanos on the air when they know that race is an issue in this election?

7:55
Following up on Castellanos' creepy Goulet vibe:

7:56
Senator Clinton to make with the talking any minute now.

8:15
Senator Clinton speaking now. Some kind words for Senator Kennedy -- "one of the greatest progressive leaders in our nation's history."

8:19
"We're winning the popular vote." No she isn't.

8:26
Via the comments... Josh Marshall on the popular vote argument:

"Even if you change the rules and fully seat Michaigan and Florida and count them for the popular vote totals and don't count any portion of the Michigan "uncommitted" (which were understood a the to be for Obama) vote for Obama, Hillary is still behind in the popular vote total. The only way she moves ahead in popular vote is if you do all that AND don't count four of the caucus states...Some stuff is just too ridiculous to let pass."

8:35
MSNBC is projecting 29-14 delegate split in Kentucky. 1 delegate away from surpassing a majority.

8:36
Also, Gallup's tracking poll has Senator Obama now leading Senator Clinton among women and Hispanics nationwide.

8:43
Russert just noted that Senator Clinton's electoral math is literally drawn from Karl Rove's electoral map. Weird. To that point, it's worth noting that according to Quinnipiac's latest numbers, Senator Obama is only one point behind Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio. One point. That's statistically nothing. And it's only May.

8:46
Schecter at FDL: "Knocked Up is on HBO. But I'd rather be watching Candy Crowley."

9:01
Norah O'Donnell just reported that 9 out of 10 voters who thought race was important selected Senator Clinton. But, of course, that's Senator Obama's "problem" -- all that racism. His problem. Racist white people are his problem. Yeah. What the hell is wrong with people?

9:15
Matthews to Lisa Caputo: "Senator Clinton can't seem to win people who are educated. What's the problem?"

9:19
CNN reporting that Senator Obama has officially won a majority of pledged delegates. The Senator has reached 1628 pledged delegates.

9:23
Back to the Senator's so-called "problem." Put another way... If someone runs up to you right now and sucker punches you in the throat because of the color of your, say, hair -- is that your problem or the sucker puncher's problem?

9:25
Something I've learned during this process that really, really sucks: Some Democrats are still very racist. Others, who believe every e-mail they receive, are also not very smart.

9:39
Fun fact: Senator Dodd says the word "here" a lot.

9:52
MSNBC reporting that former Carter Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan has died after years of fighting various forms of cancer.

10:00
Before Senator Obama speaks tonight, here's a flashback to Senator Kennedy's endorsement speech.

10:04
SCHECTER: "Alex Castellanos is babbling again. It can be hard to talk when you're not used to talking through the blow-hole of a white pillow case."

10:05
And this video just in from Kentucky:

10:06
Russert saying that Senator Obama has won a majority of pledged delegates.

10:08
Whoever has the beeper/pager at MSNBC... Please stop it!

10:12
Senator Obama getting ready to speak.

10:19
Senator Obama declares that he has achieved a majority of pledged delegates. "Within reach of the nomination for president..."

10:22
SENATOR OBAMA: "We all admire her courage and committment and perseverance. And no matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughter and your daughters will come of age, and for that we are grateful to her."

10:35
Schecter:

Obama is again hitting McCain on lacking the courage to sit down with our enemies. I love that frame. Because it is TRUE. And it is what we should have been saying for a while. It is the cowards who resort to violence immediately. They don't have the guts to work things out in a complicated world, instead of bombing people on false evidence....

10:36
That was a HUGE speech. I haven't seen that much energy from the Senator in months. That's not to say his speeches have been weaker, but this one was particularly strong in terms of his delivery.

10:42
CNN's John King just used his magic-marker fingers to draw what appeared to be a large bowel across "rural" Kentucky. That's about right.

10:55
Is it me or is Begala sounding more and more like Lionel Hutz? Speaking of The Simpsons, if you're planning on selling a monorail to a small rural town, check out the exit polls and find the towns that believe the Manchurian e-mails. Monorail... Monorail... Monorail...

11:03
Results coming in from Oregon. 11% reporting. Senator Obama leading with more than 60 percent in the counties surrounding Eugene and Portland. However, there don't appear to be many racists there so, naturally, these results don't matter.

11:09
MATTHEWS: "There's a problem here for Barack Obama... the Appalachian whites... He didn't even try to reach them..." RUSSERT REPLIES: "They were reachable in Oregon and Wisconsin...." Huh-what-now? Appalachian voters from Oregon? That's crazy! Appalachia is more enormous than I thought! But to Matthews' point -- yes, why can't Senator Obama reach the racist white hillbillies? What's Obama's problem!?

11:17
No exit poll news yet on Oregon's all-important Roloff vote.

11:20
29% reporting
Obama 60
Clinton 40
Also, on CNN, Gergen wondering why Senator Clinton hasn't told her voters (paraphrasing): if you're voting for me because you won't vote for a black candidate, I don't want your vote.

11:26
Chuck Todd: 115 of the 212 remaining undeclared superdelegates are from states that went for Senator Obama.

11:35
Schecter notes: "Rudy Giuliani got 1.5% of the vote [in Kentucky] and he has been out of this race since his old combover went out of style." Why can't Senator McCain win over all of Giuliani's voters? What's his problem?

11:48
Norah's exit polling... In 2004 32 percent of Kentucky Democrats voted for President Bush. The exact same number said they'd vote for Senator McCain over Senator Obama.

11:50
Video flashback to last week. The crossover rural white Democratic voter:

I'm selling Janice a monorail.

11:51
That's all for me tonight. Three more primaries to go. Speaking of which, I have two requests... Can we stop calling them "contests"? They're primaries and caucuses, and they're supposed to be important electoral events. A "contest", on the other hand, involves throwing a baseball at a clown in a dunk tank -- or betting your friends that you can go the longest without masturbating. Second request: now that the primary season is nearing a conclusion, can we stop calling the candidates "Barack" and "Hillary"? I don't hear anyone calling Senator McCain "John."

Bob Cesca's Goddamn Awesome Blog! GO!

Comments

[UrbanAddictiondotcom]

Bob you are doing an awesome job with these posts. I can't wait to read you the day after the election. Your points are well taken. I voted for Obama in PA and I will vote for him in November.

[LTCKal]

I agree about not calling the primaries "contests." And while we are at it, how about removing the word "democratic" from describing the nomination process? The process is more accurately a "nomination procedure" decided upon by a committee of party leaders. It has elements of democracy, but also party meetings (caucuses), carte blanches for certain officials (superdelegates), as well as just plain meetings behind closed doors (DNC meetings, state Democratic party meetings, etc.). Nobody ever said that a political party should run itself democratically, and they don't.

[Newsmonger]

But it is still democratic, the people have spoken and they gave majority of the delegates their preferred candidate; however those delegates are not enough to clear the 2025 hurdle set by the party.

My take is, at the end of the day, let the person with the majority of delegates from all primaries & caucuses (including FL & MI) be declared the winner.

I do not care if that person is Obama or Hillary, but even if you add the rightly disputed FL & MI delegates i.e. assign them just like Hillary is saying, which means give Hillary 55% of the delegates in FL and Obama 45%; also

[MrChris]

It's always nice to know that on the nights when I just can't sit in front of the television watching inane political blather, I can read Bob Cesca the next morning over an espresso and get the scoop in the most amusing way possible. Thanks again, Bob. You rock the house.

(And, yeah, what's up with the disrespectful "Barack" and "Hillary" references? Never hear them talking about how "Mike and Ron took 15% of the vote from John in Oregon tonight" do we?)

[nostalgia]

Dear Hillary

You have to win at all cost. Why? Did your parents ever teach you that winning without honor or integrity is a shallow victory? Look at the world history: Hitler, Stalin, Lenin, Mao, Nixon etc were all winners before they became sore losers. One more look: Nelson Mendela, Gandhi initially were not winners yet became winners by inspiring their country with decency, courage and integrity.

I am not by any means comparing you to the bad leaders however my point is that at some point, honor is more important than victory.

Please stay by the rules you had agreed when you started campaigning. That was your gentlewoman handshake. Please keep it.

[definitelyNOTmisterRIGHT]

nostalgia, beautifully stated! thank you and keep up the good word!

[EinChicago]

If one is running against a sleazy petty vindictive candidate like Obama, why should HRC be held to higher standards than Barry, who engaged in and started teh entire race baiting tactic and attacks constantly by surrogates?

[usabroad]

It seems to me that if Hillary had minded being called HILLARY all her campaign signs wouldn't say HILLARY.

[RNdaSilva]

John? John who? Oh yeah, that one. Too many Johns...too common.

On the other hand...

[1pioneer1]

The media keeps harping that Obama is not reaching "white working class voters"and there is all this discussion as to how he should try to reach them. I think that term is a code for people who will never vote for a person of color no matter what he tries to do to get his message across to them. I think the media should be paying more attention to why Hilary, on the other hand, is not reaching the highly educated, as well as the young voters, in the country. Perhaps they are intelligent enough to recognize the flaws in her character. Also why is Hilary basking in her big wins among people who have openly declared their racist tendencies...She ought to be denouncing them instead of thanking them for their biased votes.

[RNdaSilva]

Very well said.

Seems to me that there were a lot of white people for Obama in Oregon. Don't they work?

Appalachia is Clinton country...Bill's country. They'll catch up with the rest of us...one of these days.

In addition, guess who bought into Hillary's pandering Gas Tax Holiday? Unbel

[Nofuzzydreams]

The media is harping because these are the people you need to win elections. There are more beer drinkers than wine sippers!!! You have to win to institute progressive policies not just be eloquent and never get a chance. Obama cannot win!! No electoral college map, other than some delusional ones, puts him in the Whitehouse. He will be another Dukakis or Kerry (who was good at sailing and skiing but not so much with a baseball bat). Obama eats organic white omlettes, not sausage and grits unlike most voters!!

[truthynesslover]

Baseball??sausage and grtis???This is whats important to you??I can only hope you were kidding because if not this country is doomed if poeple like you are voting espcially when the issues are so great!WOW!!!

[THEhillbilly]

"Can we stop calling them "contests"? They're primaries and caucuses, and they're supposed to be important electoral events. A "contest", on the other hand, involves throwing a baseball at a clown in a dunk tank -- or betting your friends that you can go the longest without masturbating."

You can actually find the word "contest" in any English language dictionary. I hope the effort will clear up your confusion.

'Second request: now that the primary season is nearing a conclusion, can we stop calling the candidates "Barack" and "Hillary"?'

No. There's no reason to stop that.

'I don't hear anyone calling Senator McCain "John.""'

Hell of a deal. Very freakin' significant. Get a grip. That's one of the most trivial snivels I've seen here, in the country's hotbed of sniveling. I bet you damn near snivel your ass off when you hear someone say "Dubya." (snicker)

You are at liberty to call McCain "John" if you have a crying need to get even with someone for calling the grandiloquent, done-nothing tyro senator from Illinois "Barack."

[BARRISTER]

hillbilly, you have difficulty getting out of bed on the right side each morning. We know, its obvious.

[elbzee]

Sorry hillbilly, but I agree with Bob. I think it's a form of respect. Kinda like "the man & the girl". Either we all go by first names, or we all go formally. I don't like the disparity. Considering the significance of the job, I think formal is appropriate.

[GOREvolutionNOW]

Noone says it better than Bob. Bravo. On the spot as usual.

[UrbanRevolution]

According to the Kentucky board of education their graduation rate is higher than the national average - anyone believe that?

[izAriver]

I'd like to see how they figured that.

[mexamerican]

they used hillary's numbers.

[PackyJ]

They're the students that are "left behind."

[SwingingFromCenter]

It doesn't say what their "graduation standards" are though.

The kids are probably just pushed through no matter what so they can go on to their careers as sheet wearing farmers.

[Thabit]

Kentuck is "State Woebegone" where ALL the kids are above average dont ya know

[drblack]

It is time for the real Democrats, those who care about American Freedom and prosperity, the Rule of law and the Constitution to get behind Obama and kick Mccain and the republicans back to the 19th century where they get their ideas.

[EinChicago]

I've voted dem for 12 years, never once broke teh party line. But I can live with voting McCain now and wiatig until 2012 to get a decent candidate if the alternative is Barry.

[ceu]

Great - you can live with 4 more years of failed Bush/Republican policies, 4 more years of bloodshed in Iraq & war mongering against Iran, 4 more years of keeping Americans scared spitless, 4 more years of "detainees" held without Constitutional protections at Gitmo, 4 more years of spying on American citizens, 4 more years of oil prices rising & no alternatives in sight, 4 more years of 47 million of your fellow citizens having no health insurance. You might live very well with McCain as president. Will the brave young men & women in the armed forces? Will the rest of us?

[ceu]

Great - you can live with voting for 4 more years of failed Bush/Republican policies, 4 more years of bloodshed in Iraq & war mongering against Iran, 4 more years of keeping Americans scared spitless, 4 more years of "detainees" held without Constitutional protections at Gitmo, 4 more years of spying on American citizens, 4 more years of oil prices rising & no alternatives in sight, 4 more years of 47 million of your fellow citizens having no health insurance. You might live very well with McCain as president. Will the brave young men & women in the armed forces? Will the rest of us?

[truthynesslover]

Well i hope you like your kids in a uniform and you should sign them up for farsi classes so when they get to IRAN they can ask where the hospital is.ANYONE who even thinks of voting mccain not only doesnt care about their own kids what about other peoples kids?MT son is in the army and he works in the hospitals taking care of the returning wounded and he teels me he and his buddies are 100% for OBAMA because he had the strenth to be against the war from the beginning.And its not that they dont want to go overseas {he does to help his fellow soldiers}but if a republican gets in they will continue this war and likely start anouther with Iran{anouther country that didnt attack us}and if mccain gets in he wont reenlist because he doesnt trust them to do the right thing by the troops!So go ahesd and vote for mccain I hope it works out for you as well as bush has!!

[Erdgeist]

I can't say which whiskey factory it is in Kentucky (my friend works there) but they make you wear diapers on the line so you can't take a break to take a leak. This is the kind of mentality we are looking at in these rural hicks states like WVA and KY. Rather than form Unions and strike, these rustics compensate for their cowardice by buying guns and shooting at watermelons.

[izAriver]

That can't be true. Where's that repugnican mcconell and why is he not doing something about that if is true?

[Mike O.]

That's an urban legend.

Your ignorance is exceeded only by your intolerance.

[Mike O.]

Obama is successful because of gullible, non-thinkers like yourself. You are just too willing to believe anything about people in rural areas. These rural people can spot a snake-oil salesman in a heartbeat. That's why Obama can't get their votes.

[ceu]

Prove of how well they spot snake-oil salesmen is the current administration...

[truthynesslover]

LIKE BUSH???YEP they flush him out alright!!!!

[najablah]

Ah, Oregon! I welcome thee to the land of states that don't matter. Please take your place by South Carolina.

[Thabit]

Hi from the state that dont matter to Hillary , the candidate that dont matter

[izAriver]

"115 of the 212 remaining undeclared superdelegates are from states that went for Senator Obama."

Not over yet but it's pretty close.

[ceu]

Seriously, is there anyone who believes that the nomination should hinge on the voters in Puerto Rico? Nothing against them but...when they've chosen not to become a state, why should they have that kind of power when the folks in D.C - who do pay federal income & excise taxes, and who do want a say in their government - don't? I don't get it.

[izAriver]

They can't vote in the GE can they?

[olivia]

Then why would they vote in the primary? It makes no sense.

[memi69]

from what i understand no

[Chillinout]

No, they can't.

[RedKnuckles]

No they can't...but I haven't checked the Hillary camp to see if this metric has changed.

OK...just checked, the official word is: "No they can't...as far as I know...."

[ceu]

Did you catch that? Rachel Maddow just pointed out that white working class voters haven't been voting Democratic since 1964. So why are they still being referred to as Democrats? And when are the Reagan Democrats gonna be referred to as Republicans since they been voting Republican for the last 24 years! Grrrr...

[izAriver]

That's always bothered me as well. Maybe they're just independent voters or maybe the corporate right-wing extremist mass media has just been spreading misinformation...

[Mike O.]

Don't be a moron. There are registered Democrats that vote Republican. Some of these people choose party affiliation because of their parents, they just vote differently.

I have a close relative who is a registered Democrat but who has voted Republican for ages because the Democrat party has been taken over by liberals. He thinks that the Democrats are spineless. FDR and JFK would not recognize the Democrat party today. The voters haven't changed, the party did so the voters now vote Republican. It's no media conspiracy.

[CranialRectalLoopback]

Cause they're REGISTERED Democrats?

[ceu]

No, I don't think that's it. They're the group that traditionally voted Democratic but voted for Reagan in the 80's and they've never lost that designation. I'd guess that the majority of them aren't affiliated with either party, just as the majority of Americans aren't.

[AJKNYNJ]

These are the registered Democrats that have tended to vote Republican in the general election since 1984. It is important to note that these are the voters who voted for Clinton, who will NOT vote for Obama in November, although they would vote for Clinton if such a choice is available to them. This isn't about race. They simply lean toward the concervative side.