Liveblogging the Kentucky and Oregon Primaries

7:03 (all times are EDT)
Even though the early returns are tight, it's clear that Senator Clinton will win Kentucky by a West Virginia-sized margin. Speaking of which, I didn't liveblog last week's West Virginia primary, but my post mortem was basically: Senator Obama lost with only 25 percent of the vote. However, on February 5, Senator McCain lost West Virginia, too. What was Senator McCain's percentage of the West Virginia caucus results? One. One percent. Why aren't there any questions about Senator McCain's "white working class problem"?

7:08
And by way of tradition, here's my prediction for tonight's results:

7:10
Kentucky results so far:
Clinton 52
Obama 45
Everyone has called Kentucky for Senator Clinton.

7:11
Back to the "white working class problem". The subtext is that white Appalachian voters are racists, regardless of party, because they refuse to vote for a black candidate. Other white Appalachian voters are stupids because they've been duped into believing these ridiculous e-mails about the Senator's religion. So my question is: Why is this a problem for Senator Obama and not a problem for the racist/stupid white Appalachian voters?

7:14
Terry McAuliffe on MSNBC now. "Let everyone vote" -- this is an interesting talking point from the Clinton campaign. Correct me in the comments if I'm wrong, but even if Senator Clinton had dropped out, wouldn't her name still be on the ballot in the remaining primaries? Meanwhile, McAuliffe just said that he believes Senator Clinton will have more delegates before the convention. Yep.

7:21
McAuliffe is fear mongering now: "Who's going to keep me safe? Who will be the best on national security? And if you look at the exit data, Chris, you know -- it's not about race and gender, it's about who they best think can deal with these economic issues and keep us safe." OLBERMANN: "Isn't that essentially a Trojan horse you've brought in on Senator McCain's behalf?" McAULIFFE: "Hillary beats John McCain on these national security issues." So much for the so-called cease-fire.

7:31
Kentucky margin:
Clinton 58
Obama 38

7:35
Chuck Todd: Oregon is only 3 percent African American. By the way, Oregon is also 3 percent Roloff.

7:46
Plug! Plug! Cliff Schecter is liveblogging over here. We'll be stealing each other's snarky observations tonight.

7:48
Cliff reminds us that Alex Castellanos is on CNN again tonight (and looking especially Robert Goulet-ish, by the way). For those of you unfamiliar with Castellanos' race-baiting work... Watch this:

Why does CNN allow Castellanos on the air when they know that race is an issue in this election?

7:55
Following up on Castellanos' creepy Goulet vibe:

7:56
Senator Clinton to make with the talking any minute now.

8:15
Senator Clinton speaking now. Some kind words for Senator Kennedy -- "one of the greatest progressive leaders in our nation's history."

8:19
"We're winning the popular vote." No she isn't.

8:26
Via the comments... Josh Marshall on the popular vote argument:

"Even if you change the rules and fully seat Michaigan and Florida and count them for the popular vote totals and don't count any portion of the Michigan "uncommitted" (which were understood a the to be for Obama) vote for Obama, Hillary is still behind in the popular vote total. The only way she moves ahead in popular vote is if you do all that AND don't count four of the caucus states...Some stuff is just too ridiculous to let pass."

8:35
MSNBC is projecting 29-14 delegate split in Kentucky. 1 delegate away from surpassing a majority.

8:36
Also, Gallup's tracking poll has Senator Obama now leading Senator Clinton among women and Hispanics nationwide.

8:43
Russert just noted that Senator Clinton's electoral math is literally drawn from Karl Rove's electoral map. Weird. To that point, it's worth noting that according to Quinnipiac's latest numbers, Senator Obama is only one point behind Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio. One point. That's statistically nothing. And it's only May.

8:46
Schecter at FDL: "Knocked Up is on HBO. But I'd rather be watching Candy Crowley."

9:01
Norah O'Donnell just reported that 9 out of 10 voters who thought race was important selected Senator Clinton. But, of course, that's Senator Obama's "problem" -- all that racism. His problem. Racist white people are his problem. Yeah. What the hell is wrong with people?

9:15
Matthews to Lisa Caputo: "Senator Clinton can't seem to win people who are educated. What's the problem?"

9:19
CNN reporting that Senator Obama has officially won a majority of pledged delegates. The Senator has reached 1628 pledged delegates.

9:23
Back to the Senator's so-called "problem." Put another way... If someone runs up to you right now and sucker punches you in the throat because of the color of your, say, hair -- is that your problem or the sucker puncher's problem?

9:25
Something I've learned during this process that really, really sucks: Some Democrats are still very racist. Others, who believe every e-mail they receive, are also not very smart.

9:39
Fun fact: Senator Dodd says the word "here" a lot.

9:52
MSNBC reporting that former Carter Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan has died after years of fighting various forms of cancer.

10:00
Before Senator Obama speaks tonight, here's a flashback to Senator Kennedy's endorsement speech.

10:04
SCHECTER: "Alex Castellanos is babbling again. It can be hard to talk when you're not used to talking through the blow-hole of a white pillow case."

10:05
And this video just in from Kentucky:

10:06
Russert saying that Senator Obama has won a majority of pledged delegates.

10:08
Whoever has the beeper/pager at MSNBC... Please stop it!

10:12
Senator Obama getting ready to speak.

10:19
Senator Obama declares that he has achieved a majority of pledged delegates. "Within reach of the nomination for president..."

10:22
SENATOR OBAMA: "We all admire her courage and committment and perseverance. And no matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughter and your daughters will come of age, and for that we are grateful to her."

10:35
Schecter:

Obama is again hitting McCain on lacking the courage to sit down with our enemies. I love that frame. Because it is TRUE. And it is what we should have been saying for a while. It is the cowards who resort to violence immediately. They don't have the guts to work things out in a complicated world, instead of bombing people on false evidence....

10:36
That was a HUGE speech. I haven't seen that much energy from the Senator in months. That's not to say his speeches have been weaker, but this one was particularly strong in terms of his delivery.

10:42
CNN's John King just used his magic-marker fingers to draw what appeared to be a large bowel across "rural" Kentucky. That's about right.

10:55
Is it me or is Begala sounding more and more like Lionel Hutz? Speaking of The Simpsons, if you're planning on selling a monorail to a small rural town, check out the exit polls and find the towns that believe the Manchurian e-mails. Monorail... Monorail... Monorail...

11:03
Results coming in from Oregon. 11% reporting. Senator Obama leading with more than 60 percent in the counties surrounding Eugene and Portland. However, there don't appear to be many racists there so, naturally, these results don't matter.

11:09
MATTHEWS: "There's a problem here for Barack Obama... the Appalachian whites... He didn't even try to reach them..." RUSSERT REPLIES: "They were reachable in Oregon and Wisconsin...." Huh-what-now? Appalachian voters from Oregon? That's crazy! Appalachia is more enormous than I thought! But to Matthews' point -- yes, why can't Senator Obama reach the racist white hillbillies? What's Obama's problem!?

11:17
No exit poll news yet on Oregon's all-important Roloff vote.

11:20
29% reporting
Obama 60
Clinton 40
Also, on CNN, Gergen wondering why Senator Clinton hasn't told her voters (paraphrasing): if you're voting for me because you won't vote for a black candidate, I don't want your vote.

11:26
Chuck Todd: 115 of the 212 remaining undeclared superdelegates are from states that went for Senator Obama.

11:35
Schecter notes: "Rudy Giuliani got 1.5% of the vote [in Kentucky] and he has been out of this race since his old combover went out of style." Why can't Senator McCain win over all of Giuliani's voters? What's his problem?

11:48
Norah's exit polling... In 2004 32 percent of Kentucky Democrats voted for President Bush. The exact same number said they'd vote for Senator McCain over Senator Obama.

11:50
Video flashback to last week. The crossover rural white Democratic voter:

I'm selling Janice a monorail.

11:51
That's all for me tonight. Three more primaries to go. Speaking of which, I have two requests... Can we stop calling them "contests"? They're primaries and caucuses, and they're supposed to be important electoral events. A "contest", on the other hand, involves throwing a baseball at a clown in a dunk tank -- or betting your friends that you can go the longest without masturbating. Second request: now that the primary season is nearing a conclusion, can we stop calling the candidates "Barack" and "Hillary"? I don't hear anyone calling Senator McCain "John."

Bob Cesca's Goddamn Awesome Blog! GO!

Comments

[jrockbg]

Easy Cesca,

Your comments on Obama's speech border on "man-crush".

[olivia]

Obama has that effect on people.

Even McCain's guy refuses to campaign against Obama.

[Mojane]

and that's a problem?

[Wanjiru]

...I wonder who does the choreography for the KKK...it seems outdated and all over the place...

...they need to step it up or ship it out...

.

[CMLA]

You know what they need ? They need Andrew Lloyd Weber. How funny would that be?!

[Wanjiru]

...I was thinking more the JabbaWocke­ez....the added bonus is the group wears masks too...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqcUAerkCks

.

[SifSkade]

Bob, this is awesome. And thank you so much for finally saying that it is not Obama's "problem" that bigots will not vote for him. Clinton and the right are using that talking point to try to suggest that he's unelectable, but there has to be a point when you stop pandering to ignorance and the lowest common denominator. If a bloc of voters out there still thought the Earth was flat, Hillary and McCain would adopt Flat-Earth platforms and argue that Obama is unelectable because he stands behind the belief that the Earth is round. It has to stop somewhere.

[Cyclone]

Even Chris Matthews figured that out. And could someone do something about Harold Ford. No matter what Joe Scarborough says he agrees. Harold, you wil lnever be an Obama. You lost. Let it go.

[SpaceCadet]

All these Clinton voters in W. Va and Kentucky who say they'll vote for McCain. I wonder who they'll blame when the next coal mine collapse or explosion happens because the GOP foxes are guarding the mining industry hen house. They'll really have no one to blame but themselves if McCain wins the presidency.

Same goes for women who experience wage descrimination who vote for McCain out of spite for Clinton losing. McCain says it's their fault for not having sufficient "education and training" and he'll appoint more Scalia-type Supreme Court "justices" to prove the point.

[anfractuous]

I knew rural electrification was a bad idea!

[ObamaFarmer]

Great speech.

There are good people everywhere, CA, KY, WV, etc. Rather than casting blame on Democrats that voted against Obama, we should instead be reaching out to them and explaining why they should vote for Obama in the general.

[RButler]

It's too late. It's a great suggestion but then you didn't go on and explain why we should vote for Obama. Why not?

[izAriver]

Did you really want to know? Of course not. Your just being difficult. Oh well, to each their own.

[gbht12]

It is obvious what this is about and Chris Matthews pinned down Lisa from Clinton camp tonight. They know the demographics regarding each state. The Clinton's capture the non-educated "white"voter because they are afraid of the color of a black man's skin. It is sickening that people in this country and especially that area are so ignorant.

It is what it is, Obama will bring in other states that care about the issues not the color of his skin.
To actually come out to strangers when asked about the color of skin and how it affects your decision is really telling about the people in that area.

How is Hillary going to spin the "white" vote in Oregon? Started in Iowa with "white"voters and it ended with Oregon "white" voters wrapping up the pledged delegates!!

[Katherine4985]

HuffPost's Pick

Bob, thank you for being one of the few people who has spoken out honestly on Barack's so-called "problem." It's not his problem, its our nation's problem and I applaud you for pointing it out. Thank you.

[cminri]

Well said! No if only we can get the MSM to address the topic.

[LulaB]

Great point! I never saw it as the nations problem and I am a person of color. Thanks for giving me something to think about.

[Mojane]

Yes, thanks to both you and Bob!

[CraigMM]

Bob, why weren't you there to call out Donna Brazille and James Clyburn and the Obama campaign for playing the race card in SC? They saw HRC gaining on Obama and played the race card and the MSM and blogs all looked the other way. The let this happen and then pointed the finger at the Clintons! The Clintons are racists? Are you kidding me? This is preposterous. Where is the outrage at Brazille, Clyburn and Obama for this despicable behavior?

Oh right, evryone's job is to make excuses for Obama and to protect him and cover his mistakes. yeah, that's a great candidate for you.

[Hillbillary]

Regarding HRC "huge wins" in WV and KY, primaries won by Obama by "huge" margins are:

State O C Pop(Millions)
MS 61 37 2.9
IL 65 33 12.8
MD 60 37 5.6
GA 67 31 9.5
DC 75 24 0.6
VA 64 35 7.7

(not to mention his strong wins in the caucuses)

[BlackandProud]

Black economist & writer Walter Willams noted that unfortunately the most uneducated sector of America is "black males". Black males have about a 50% high school graduation rate in the large urban areas... and eventually 25% of black males will spend time in jail.

Of those who vote, more than 90% of this most uneducated sector in America vote democrat.

I am anti-republican & anti-democrat (they are all wealthy liars who do not represent the middle and lower class), and- one thing I notice is that uneducated black males in this country do not think for themselves. Most uneducated black males vote democrat because their pastor tells them to do so, or because Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson tells them to do so.

Their lives never improve and they've continued to live in poverty since the "great society / welfare state" was created- but one thing is for sure- this most uneducated group will continue to vote for the candidate that Al Sharpton commands them to vote for.

Clinton may win much of the uneducated vote, but Obama has certainly won the Most Uneducated vote in America.

[LionEater]

if you're black and proud, i'm the tooth fairy.

[BlackandProud]

Nice to meet a tooth fairy.

You're also a racist.

[gbht12]

Wow! BlackandProud that is a amazing thought! Obama has won due to his competence. Hillary and McBush are the same old politics. Once this nomination is done, people will come together. As far as the racist people, there are more intelligent voters that he attracts anyways.

The Clinton's have won based on their names. The uneducated voter in the Appalachian area are bigots. They are not shy to tell a perfect stranger when polling them. To me that is so disgusting , and as a white woman I find that so offensive.

I don't think you are black and you surely aren't proud!

[RButler]

The Obama supporters have been dissing the non-college educated Hillary supporters for quite awhile forgetting about the 90% black turnout for Obama that certainly is not all college educated. Are they dissing them too? Not too bright.

[gbht12]

No, we wait for Clinton supporters to diss the voters! Hillary likes to play her "gender" card!

Oregon already called Obama about a second after polling ended.

[izAriver]

You don't sound very proud.

[CindyKay]

Another Troll , Are You working for McINSANE ? He's been advertising for Trolls like Yourself .

[NotMcCain]

"Who's going to keep me safe?" What is Hillary's REAL purpose here?

All her staff know that Obama. Has. Won. I understand if she's still in it for ego. Or for money. Or for the best showing in the history books.

But fear-mongering on McCain's behalf makes her agenda seem very Republican.

And CNN has ANYONE on to spin for Hillary (imo, as cover for really spinning for McCain). They're as conservative now as Fox--and just as misleading.

I'd rather watch ANYTHING than Candy Crowley (or "Dulce" as our President calls her).

[olivia]

Hillary didn't keep 4,100 American soldiers safe. Her "obliterate" comments are not going to keep me safe. What a crock.

Even CNN challenged Hillary's "I have the popular vote" today.

[halo2671]

hey bayfield, what does it matter where I live? I suppose the presidency is just one person, or woman.
Sorry if you find my observations on watching everyone try to be so pc about black and white, male vs female to be disrespectful. If this blog even exists in 4 years, hopefully Wv and Ky will be just as important. And maybe all the factories will open back up in Oh. I'll keep tabs on all those local pols who think Hillary's gonna do something for them. In 4 years I'll say the same things. People should try fixing things in their own backyard first.

l i g h t e n u p......she­'ll run as an independent

[bayfield]

I'm not a Hillary supporter. Just tired of hearing people disparage one another.

[SaskiaStars]

and she will lose.

[ceu]

Thanks for the news about Hamilton Jordan. He wasn't a bad guy...

[BarackMan]

No...He was a most excellent man. Read his book....aw­esome!!

Obama '08!!

[Hadok]

I am from West Virginia. A Democrat with a picture of FDR hanging over my fireplace. Really. I was looking over exit polls at MSNBC.com.

In response to the question, "In deciding your vote for president today, was the race of the candidate: important or not important"

It is true that in West Virginia, 22% of the voters answered "important­." That is unfortunate. 17% of California voters answered that way. 21% in Tenessee. A whopping 23% in Illinois. 18% in Nevada. 16% in Indiana. 19% in Mississippi. 19% in Pennsylvania. 18% in North Carolina. 29% in Alabama. 20% in Ohio. I'm not sure these differences are statistically significant or fall outside the margin of error, even assuming that those polled gave honest answers.

I suppose that 22% of West Virginians answered that way because we are a pretty uneducated lot. But what is California's and Illinois' excuse?

Or, could it be that maybe West Virginia is not as totally racist and out of the mainstream as our Democrat brothers and sisters might think? Perhaps Obama's loss here was related to something other than race? Strom Thurmond received NO votes in WV in '48. George Wallace received a smaller percentage of the votes in WV in 1968 than the national average.

Gee, the Democrat party REALLY hates us. Will we be allowed to remain in the party after Obama is officially nominated?

[halo2671]

no.

[ceu]

Interesting statistics, Hadok. Thanks. Do you know if there were follow-up questions as to whether people absolutely would or would not vote for a candidate based solely on his/her race?

[izAriver]

Good point but you need to provide links to check out these stats. Of course, I'm not sure how meaningful exit polling is but...

[gbht12]

I don't think he has the link to check it out.

[loria]

The difference is that they aren't primarily white states. A better comparison would be to IA, WY, ID, etc. If they said that they voted for the white candidate because of race 20% of the time in those states, then I gues you are all equally enlightened (or unenlightened). The other states have much larger minority populations. If you are African American and vote for a black candidate because they are a good candidate and the bonus is that finally there will be less descriminationa nd racism is this country, then it isn't racist voting. If, however, you are white and will not vote for someone because of their skin color that's not identity voting, that's racism. I would love to have sociologist give the true realities of racism in this country.

[gbht12]

Get Real! The bigots of this country are alive and well. There are so many states that Obama has won with huge margins, I listed for them for you below.

Don't try to bulls*it people. Obama has just won the most pledged delegates, the most states won and he still has the popular vote. Of course, Hillary has her own MATH so she includes FL and MI and she will probably try to throw in Puerto Rico even though they can't vote in the general.

Hillary is still spouting her rhetoric and the people that are voting for her are Appalachian hicks and if you read the polls it is obvious how they are voting. They even say it out loud. The south sucks, I know , I live in the south. The racism is sickening. Obama still wins, must be painful for those non-educated voters.

Idaho 82.2% 17.8%
Hawaii 76.2% 23.8%
District of Columbia 75.8% 24.2%
Alaska 74.6% 25.4%
Kansas 74.2% 25.8%
Washington 68.4% 31.6%
Georgia 68.1% 31.9%
South Carolina 67.6% 32.4%
Minnesota 67.4% 32.6%
Colorado 67.3% 32.7%
Illinois 66.3% 33.7%
Virginia 64.2% 35.8%
North Dakota 62.6% 37.4%
Mississippi 62.2% 37.8%
Maryland 61.9% 38.1%
Wyoming 61.9% 38.1%
Louisiana 61.7% 38.3%
Vermont 60.6% 39.4%

[AdobePhsyko]

HILLARY !
Just Go Away

[cminri]

First let me say that I am a strong Obama supporter, but I clearly fit into Hillary's demographic. I'm a white, almost 50 year female who did not finish college. Yet I'm an Obama supporter. Why? Because I can see beyond the end of my nose and wont vote for someone just because she is the same sex as I am. I support Barack Obama because I feel he is the best candidate for our country and the world. I feel he offers the best chance to really change things. He just happens to be black. I cant wait for the day when race and gender wont be and issue.