Liveblogging the Kentucky and Oregon Primaries
7:03 (all times are EDT)
Even though the early returns are tight, it's clear that Senator Clinton will win Kentucky by a West Virginia-sized margin. Speaking of which, I didn't liveblog last week's West Virginia primary, but my post mortem was basically: Senator Obama lost with only 25 percent of the vote. However, on February 5, Senator McCain lost West Virginia, too. What was Senator McCain's percentage of the West Virginia caucus results? One. One percent. Why aren't there any questions about Senator McCain's "white working class problem"?
7:08
And by way of tradition, here's my prediction for tonight's results:
7:10
Kentucky results so far:
Clinton 52
Obama 45
Everyone has called Kentucky for Senator Clinton.
7:11
Back to the "white working class problem". The subtext is that white Appalachian voters are racists, regardless of party, because they refuse to vote for a black candidate. Other white Appalachian voters are stupids because they've been duped into believing these ridiculous e-mails about the Senator's religion. So my question is: Why is this a problem for Senator Obama and not a problem for the racist/stupid white Appalachian voters?
7:14
Terry McAuliffe on MSNBC now. "Let everyone vote" -- this is an interesting talking point from the Clinton campaign. Correct me in the comments if I'm wrong, but even if Senator Clinton had dropped out, wouldn't her name still be on the ballot in the remaining primaries? Meanwhile, McAuliffe just said that he believes Senator Clinton will have more delegates before the convention. Yep.
7:21
McAuliffe is fear mongering now: "Who's going to keep me safe? Who will be the best on national security? And if you look at the exit data, Chris, you know -- it's not about race and gender, it's about who they best think can deal with these economic issues and keep us safe." OLBERMANN: "Isn't that essentially a Trojan horse you've brought in on Senator McCain's behalf?" McAULIFFE: "Hillary beats John McCain on these national security issues." So much for the so-called cease-fire.
7:31
Kentucky margin:
Clinton 58
Obama 38
7:35
Chuck Todd: Oregon is only 3 percent African American. By the way, Oregon is also 3 percent Roloff.
7:46
Plug! Plug! Cliff Schecter is liveblogging over here. We'll be stealing each other's snarky observations tonight.
7:48
Cliff reminds us that Alex Castellanos is on CNN again tonight (and looking especially Robert Goulet-ish, by the way). For those of you unfamiliar with Castellanos' race-baiting work... Watch this:
Why does CNN allow Castellanos on the air when they know that race is an issue in this election?
7:55
Following up on Castellanos' creepy Goulet vibe:
7:56
Senator Clinton to make with the talking any minute now.
8:15
Senator Clinton speaking now. Some kind words for Senator Kennedy -- "one of the greatest progressive leaders in our nation's history."
8:19
"We're winning the popular vote." No she isn't.
8:26
Via the comments... Josh Marshall on the popular vote argument:
"Even if you change the rules and fully seat Michaigan and Florida and count them for the popular vote totals and don't count any portion of the Michigan "uncommitted" (which were understood a the to be for Obama) vote for Obama, Hillary is still behind in the popular vote total. The only way she moves ahead in popular vote is if you do all that AND don't count four of the caucus states...Some stuff is just too ridiculous to let pass."
8:35
MSNBC is projecting 29-14 delegate split in Kentucky. 1 delegate away from surpassing a majority.
8:36
Also, Gallup's tracking poll has Senator Obama now leading Senator Clinton among women and Hispanics nationwide.
8:43
Russert just noted that Senator Clinton's electoral math is literally drawn from Karl Rove's electoral map. Weird. To that point, it's worth noting that according to Quinnipiac's latest numbers, Senator Obama is only one point behind Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio. One point. That's statistically nothing. And it's only May.
8:46
Schecter at FDL: "Knocked Up is on HBO. But I'd rather be watching Candy Crowley."
9:01
Norah O'Donnell just reported that 9 out of 10 voters who thought race was important selected Senator Clinton. But, of course, that's Senator Obama's "problem" -- all that racism. His problem. Racist white people are his problem. Yeah. What the hell is wrong with people?
9:15
Matthews to Lisa Caputo: "Senator Clinton can't seem to win people who are educated. What's the problem?"
9:19
CNN reporting that Senator Obama has officially won a majority of pledged delegates. The Senator has reached 1628 pledged delegates.
9:23
Back to the Senator's so-called "problem." Put another way... If someone runs up to you right now and sucker punches you in the throat because of the color of your, say, hair -- is that your problem or the sucker puncher's problem?
9:25
Something I've learned during this process that really, really sucks: Some Democrats are still very racist. Others, who believe every e-mail they receive, are also not very smart.
9:39
Fun fact: Senator Dodd says the word "here" a lot.
9:52
MSNBC reporting that former Carter Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan has died after years of fighting various forms of cancer.
10:00
Before Senator Obama speaks tonight, here's a flashback to Senator Kennedy's endorsement speech.
10:04
SCHECTER: "Alex Castellanos is babbling again. It can be hard to talk when you're not used to talking through the blow-hole of a white pillow case."
10:05
And this video just in from Kentucky:
10:06
Russert saying that Senator Obama has won a majority of pledged delegates.
10:08
Whoever has the beeper/pager at MSNBC... Please stop it!
10:12
Senator Obama getting ready to speak.
10:19
Senator Obama declares that he has achieved a majority of pledged delegates. "Within reach of the nomination for president..."
10:22
SENATOR OBAMA: "We all admire her courage and committment and perseverance. And no matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughter and your daughters will come of age, and for that we are grateful to her."
10:35
Schecter:
Obama is again hitting McCain on lacking the courage to sit down with our enemies. I love that frame. Because it is TRUE. And it is what we should have been saying for a while. It is the cowards who resort to violence immediately. They don't have the guts to work things out in a complicated world, instead of bombing people on false evidence....
10:36
That was a HUGE speech. I haven't seen that much energy from the Senator in months. That's not to say his speeches have been weaker, but this one was particularly strong in terms of his delivery.
10:42
CNN's John King just used his magic-marker fingers to draw what appeared to be a large bowel across "rural" Kentucky. That's about right.
10:55
Is it me or is Begala sounding more and more like Lionel Hutz? Speaking of The Simpsons, if you're planning on selling a monorail to a small rural town, check out the exit polls and find the towns that believe the Manchurian e-mails. Monorail... Monorail... Monorail...
11:03
Results coming in from Oregon. 11% reporting. Senator Obama leading with more than 60 percent in the counties surrounding Eugene and Portland. However, there don't appear to be many racists there so, naturally, these results don't matter.
11:09
MATTHEWS: "There's a problem here for Barack Obama... the Appalachian whites... He didn't even try to reach them..." RUSSERT REPLIES: "They were reachable in Oregon and Wisconsin...." Huh-what-now? Appalachian voters from Oregon? That's crazy! Appalachia is more enormous than I thought! But to Matthews' point -- yes, why can't Senator Obama reach the racist white hillbillies? What's Obama's problem!?
11:17
No exit poll news yet on Oregon's all-important Roloff vote.
11:20
29% reporting
Obama 60
Clinton 40
Also, on CNN, Gergen wondering why Senator Clinton hasn't told her voters (paraphrasing): if you're voting for me because you won't vote for a black candidate, I don't want your vote.
11:26
Chuck Todd: 115 of the 212 remaining undeclared superdelegates are from states that went for Senator Obama.
11:35
Schecter notes: "Rudy Giuliani got 1.5% of the vote [in Kentucky] and he has been out of this race since his old combover went out of style." Why can't Senator McCain win over all of Giuliani's voters? What's his problem?
11:48
Norah's exit polling... In 2004 32 percent of Kentucky Democrats voted for President Bush. The exact same number said they'd vote for Senator McCain over Senator Obama.
11:50
Video flashback to last week. The crossover rural white Democratic voter:
I'm selling Janice a monorail.
11:51
That's all for me tonight. Three more primaries to go. Speaking of which, I have two requests... Can we stop calling them "contests"? They're primaries and caucuses, and they're supposed to be important electoral events. A "contest", on the other hand, involves throwing a baseball at a clown in a dunk tank -- or betting your friends that you can go the longest without masturbating. Second request: now that the primary season is nearing a conclusion, can we stop calling the candidates "Barack" and "Hillary"? I don't hear anyone calling Senator McCain "John."
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Barack Obama has already reached the Major Delegates needed.
That means he will be less than 65 delegates from 2025 by the end of the night. How many superdelegates will we see tomorrow?
HRC is Captain Ahab in pursuit of the Great White Vote?
As I write this, Senator Clinton is winning in Kentucky by 32%. That's a two to one margin of victory. CNN is not talking about that, though. They're talking about how the popular vote doesn't matter.
That's a switch, if you remember. At one time, the popular vote was a key component of Obama's match with destiny. The supers could not, remember, overturn the 'will of the people.'
When Obama won North Carolina (by 16%), the victory was described as 'crushing,' and 'decisive.
They're not using those adjectives to describe Kentucky.
Perhaps the size doesn't matter, if the voters are a bunch of dumb hicks anyway. (I'm guessing that's the thinking.)
Too bad those dumb hicks will get to vote in the general election.
Don't get me wrong. I like Obama. But I think the people in the media are doing him an active disservice. Obama's going to need the fifty percent of the Democratic Party who voted for Hillary, if and when he gets nominated. Trashing her so relentlessly is only going to make things harder for him in November.
You got some of it right. But the primaries don't work quite like described. Good try.
How is he trashing her? What has he said?
Don't expect an answer. The best Geraldine Ferraro could come up with is he called her Annie Oakley and dusted off his shoulder.
Obama's more gracious than his supporters. You don't see him calling her voters racists and hillbillies, or demanding that she get out of the race.
It's the media, and many of Obama's own supporters, who are doing him an active disservice.
Obama understands he DOES need her voters to win. And that Kentucky, and W. Virginia, and Ohio (and yes, Florida and Michigan) WILL count in the general election..
First, the popular vote was never a key component of Obama's match with destiny. To the contrary, it was Hillary who, after losing Iowa, said, "It's a race for delegates.
Second, Hillary is not (and never has been) ahead in the popular vote (I refer you to Bob's 8:19 and 8:26 above).
By "switching" the goal posts (first delegates and then popular votes) and falsely asserting that she is winning the popular vote, she's deliberately attempting to create the backlash that you're predicting.
My request of you...don'
Third, Hillary repeatedly said it was about the delegates (that's until it was about the superdelegeates, and then the popular vote and then the size of the state. Oh and let's not forget that caucs states are undemocratic).
I am a woman, I feel like I have to say this, I am "white". I am ashamed that I have to say what color my skin is but that is exactly what is going on in these states. Hillary has made it a race vs. gender issue from the beginning. In her speeches she always references her gender, ALWAYS! Chris Matthews got it correct tonight with Lisa from the Clinton camp. (like Lisa dosen't already know it) Please are we not stupid, I don't live in the Appalachian area! This is all about race, she knows it, Clinton knows it and the media knows it.
If Obama brought up race everytime he did a speech she would be jumping all over it, and so would the media. Look at me people, I am BLACK , you need to vote for me because of my skin color. That is exactly what she is saying to women. I can be the first WOMAN president and you need to help me achieve that. By the way go to: Hillary.co
Oh my goodness. Thanks for 7:11, 9:01; and 9:15. High time the other half of the glass is speaking.
Well at least the United Nations is geting a good look at the Racism in this Country. Since the UN is now investigating Racism in the USA. GO OBAMA
LOL Bob. Good stuff
Two comments: The white hillbilly racists wouldn't have voted Obama if they had a gun to their head. So these pundits that say Obama should have pent more time in WV and Kentucky is a joke. This crowd will vote Republican anyway. They usually do. So why shuld Obama spend any time and money on a lost cause.
I have to laugh at McAuliffe saying let everyone vote If Clinton would have received the vote she expected on Super Tuesday and got her coronation, she wouldn't give a fig about letting everyone vote. So who is zooming who?
Hey Bob..I share your sorrow regarding the large number of racist democrats. Its sad to think that they wont vote for someone purely based on their race. I wish the MSM would address this situation for what it is instead of referring to these racists as "hardworking blue collar" people.
Exactly so. It's shameful that black voters in this country are voting lockstep on the basis of race. Oops....I forgot. It's only racism when white people vote on the basis of race, right?
Well what was it called when "black voters" voted for decades for only "white male" presidential candidates? What was the basis for that?
Have you ever seen a "white" person or "black" person? Aren't those really silly labels? Ridiculous!
That in itself is a racist ignorant comment. It's a lot different for an African American to vote for the one person who would offer a great deal of hope in a lifetime of discrimination of racism. Most of them wouldn't vote for just any AA, they are voting for Obama because he is a good candidate who will do a great deal for other African Americans (and whites and everyone else). To vote against someone because they are African American is something completely different. That is what these white people did when they say they voted for Hillary because of race. It's not the same. It's too bad you are just too ignorant to realize how stupid and offending this argument is.
It's shameful either way. The difference between Hillary and Obama is, that Hillary is actively courting that racism and Obama is not.
HILLARY : This is our chance to have the first woman in the presidency. She mentions this EVERYTIME . You make NO SENSE.
I am white, female and over 50 and I vote according to competence, and that is sure not a word that I connect with HILLARY
Especially as some of those racist are white collared workers, while others are out of work.
The only question is where their loyalties lie; race or party? Continue fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan (and maybe Iran), or bring the military home? Freedom of choice and speech, or Do what we tell you?
Amusing little game, but will we really wait for a politician to save us from our own acts?
Economic power is the guardian of freedom in today's world, and we have ceded it to the corporations, who own the politicians! Obama is my choice, and I have great hope that he can help, but We the People had better realize that our actions control our future.
Patriotism is the stewardship of our liberty, and that liberty has been under attack by what Arianna calls the "Corpocracy" for decades.
Every dollar we spend affects the equation, if we choose to buy our groceries from the farmer whose work created them, we cut the corporate fat from that transaction and our money goes for human needs. We can do the same by hiring people instead of companies in other phases of our lives.
These Corporations have turned our retirement accounts into bonuses, lowered our wages, and taken basic health care from our neighbors, it is time we return fire!
We are watching our Nation be sold! Patriotism demands we buy it back!
Obama can do nothing if we choose to shop at China's company store.
Hear! Hear!
Two in ten voters in KY voted based on race. What a bummer.
Three in a row for the Hill-dog!!!
Let Hillary have her hour of glee....be
Exactly, let them have their moment.
Let me guess.
You don't have a college degree..
You own a gun..
Make less than 50k a year..
Christian.
Most likely not much of a multi-tasker, thus plenty of time to sluff off to vote..
Inesecure female or just love those tragic queens (that one is for the boyzth)..
..oh I almost forgot. WHITE.
Yay, West Virginia and Kentucky..
Howard Fineman of Newsweek is on MSNBC trying to breathe new life into Clinton's candidacy. Fineman claims to be surprised by the size of Clinton's victory...
Give me a break.
I think it's telling that Obama didn't even make a play in Kentucky. If I were McCain I would makke that a Gen Elec issue. Democrats have tried the strategy of focusing on populus states and ignoring rural one and lost big. The Obama that won Iowa is no more!
jrockbg appears to maintain a double standard. He (or she) doesn't seem to be concerned about what McCain would say about all the states Hillary "didn't even make a play" for between super Tuesday and Wisconsin.
Out of curiosity, exactly how much time did Hillary spend in Oregon this week? I heard she's been camped out in Kentucky for the last seven days.
Please.
I was pleased to see that Senator Obama did eek out a win in the two most urban counties in Kentucky, Jefferson and Fayette, (Louisville and Lexington). He couldn't have accomplished that without significant white support. As a Louisville resident, I was afraid to predict beforehand how it might go.
I admit I was a bit puzzled and disappointed that Senator Obama didn't do more campaigning out in the state. He's only been here once or twice while Hillary, Bill and Chelsea have been crisscrossing the state for weeks now. Then again, I notice that she didn't seem to spend much time in certain areas where he was heavily favored beforehand either. It's a strategy I don't really understand, but I look forward to seeing more of him once the nomination is secured.
Matthews just came back to reality for a few minutes. Lisa Caputo stammered alot with, "gosh, Chris,
I really hope people aren't voting on race." 2 out 10 publicly state race as the factor for their vote. How do you actually say that to a pollster? Umm, yep, votin fer the white lady. Everyone needs to remember the states of Ky, and Wv, and Oh for that matter, will look exactly the same in 8 years. in 12. in 16......bl
Where do you live? Why disrespect people in these states becuse they don't agree with you? And you are telling me that blacks don't vote for Obama becuase he's black?
Because those same blacks have voted for white presidential candidates over and over and over again.
The whites that voted for Hillary because she is white and refuse to vote for Obama - or ANY black person - BECAUSE he is black would not vote for a candidate, like a previous poster said, if you put a gun to their heads.
Those people get the scorn they deserve.
I live in Ohio and I am not offended. The truth is, people in these states vote against their economic interest over, and over, and over again. So it isn't much of a stretch to say that not much will change regarding the economic conditions.
I think you also missed the part of the post that cited "2 of 10" said they voted based on race. They are TELLING you, so there is no mystery here.
If this is a delegate race why the hoopla over the popular vote?
Because HRC lives in an alternate reality.
Because the Obama that won Iowa all of a sudden is having trouble with rural and blue collar white voters. He'll need their support against a moderate Republican candidate who is gonna run like hell to the middle till November.
Rural and Appalachia is more like it. It's not just urban and rural in this country. There are regional differences throughout the country. Appalachia just isn't Obama's demographic. It's okay, McCain has a tough time in Vt. MA, IL, and Hillary has a tough time in SC, MS, AL, GA, Wy, ID, HA, WA, MD, VA, DC, IL.
Because it is the last fake argument that the Clintons have.
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