Liveblogging the Kentucky and Oregon Primaries
7:03 (all times are EDT)
Even though the early returns are tight, it's clear that Senator Clinton will win Kentucky by a West Virginia-sized margin. Speaking of which, I didn't liveblog last week's West Virginia primary, but my post mortem was basically: Senator Obama lost with only 25 percent of the vote. However, on February 5, Senator McCain lost West Virginia, too. What was Senator McCain's percentage of the West Virginia caucus results? One. One percent. Why aren't there any questions about Senator McCain's "white working class problem"?
7:08
And by way of tradition, here's my prediction for tonight's results:
7:10
Kentucky results so far:
Clinton 52
Obama 45
Everyone has called Kentucky for Senator Clinton.
7:11
Back to the "white working class problem". The subtext is that white Appalachian voters are racists, regardless of party, because they refuse to vote for a black candidate. Other white Appalachian voters are stupids because they've been duped into believing these ridiculous e-mails about the Senator's religion. So my question is: Why is this a problem for Senator Obama and not a problem for the racist/stupid white Appalachian voters?
7:14
Terry McAuliffe on MSNBC now. "Let everyone vote" -- this is an interesting talking point from the Clinton campaign. Correct me in the comments if I'm wrong, but even if Senator Clinton had dropped out, wouldn't her name still be on the ballot in the remaining primaries? Meanwhile, McAuliffe just said that he believes Senator Clinton will have more delegates before the convention. Yep.
7:21
McAuliffe is fear mongering now: "Who's going to keep me safe? Who will be the best on national security? And if you look at the exit data, Chris, you know -- it's not about race and gender, it's about who they best think can deal with these economic issues and keep us safe." OLBERMANN: "Isn't that essentially a Trojan horse you've brought in on Senator McCain's behalf?" McAULIFFE: "Hillary beats John McCain on these national security issues." So much for the so-called cease-fire.
7:31
Kentucky margin:
Clinton 58
Obama 38
7:35
Chuck Todd: Oregon is only 3 percent African American. By the way, Oregon is also 3 percent Roloff.
7:46
Plug! Plug! Cliff Schecter is liveblogging over here. We'll be stealing each other's snarky observations tonight.
7:48
Cliff reminds us that Alex Castellanos is on CNN again tonight (and looking especially Robert Goulet-ish, by the way). For those of you unfamiliar with Castellanos' race-baiting work... Watch this:
Why does CNN allow Castellanos on the air when they know that race is an issue in this election?
7:55
Following up on Castellanos' creepy Goulet vibe:
7:56
Senator Clinton to make with the talking any minute now.
8:15
Senator Clinton speaking now. Some kind words for Senator Kennedy -- "one of the greatest progressive leaders in our nation's history."
8:19
"We're winning the popular vote." No she isn't.
8:26
Via the comments... Josh Marshall on the popular vote argument:
"Even if you change the rules and fully seat Michaigan and Florida and count them for the popular vote totals and don't count any portion of the Michigan "uncommitted" (which were understood a the to be for Obama) vote for Obama, Hillary is still behind in the popular vote total. The only way she moves ahead in popular vote is if you do all that AND don't count four of the caucus states...Some stuff is just too ridiculous to let pass."
8:35
MSNBC is projecting 29-14 delegate split in Kentucky. 1 delegate away from surpassing a majority.
8:36
Also, Gallup's tracking poll has Senator Obama now leading Senator Clinton among women and Hispanics nationwide.
8:43
Russert just noted that Senator Clinton's electoral math is literally drawn from Karl Rove's electoral map. Weird. To that point, it's worth noting that according to Quinnipiac's latest numbers, Senator Obama is only one point behind Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio. One point. That's statistically nothing. And it's only May.
8:46
Schecter at FDL: "Knocked Up is on HBO. But I'd rather be watching Candy Crowley."
9:01
Norah O'Donnell just reported that 9 out of 10 voters who thought race was important selected Senator Clinton. But, of course, that's Senator Obama's "problem" -- all that racism. His problem. Racist white people are his problem. Yeah. What the hell is wrong with people?
9:15
Matthews to Lisa Caputo: "Senator Clinton can't seem to win people who are educated. What's the problem?"
9:19
CNN reporting that Senator Obama has officially won a majority of pledged delegates. The Senator has reached 1628 pledged delegates.
9:23
Back to the Senator's so-called "problem." Put another way... If someone runs up to you right now and sucker punches you in the throat because of the color of your, say, hair -- is that your problem or the sucker puncher's problem?
9:25
Something I've learned during this process that really, really sucks: Some Democrats are still very racist. Others, who believe every e-mail they receive, are also not very smart.
9:39
Fun fact: Senator Dodd says the word "here" a lot.
9:52
MSNBC reporting that former Carter Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan has died after years of fighting various forms of cancer.
10:00
Before Senator Obama speaks tonight, here's a flashback to Senator Kennedy's endorsement speech.
10:04
SCHECTER: "Alex Castellanos is babbling again. It can be hard to talk when you're not used to talking through the blow-hole of a white pillow case."
10:05
And this video just in from Kentucky:
10:06
Russert saying that Senator Obama has won a majority of pledged delegates.
10:08
Whoever has the beeper/pager at MSNBC... Please stop it!
10:12
Senator Obama getting ready to speak.
10:19
Senator Obama declares that he has achieved a majority of pledged delegates. "Within reach of the nomination for president..."
10:22
SENATOR OBAMA: "We all admire her courage and committment and perseverance. And no matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughter and your daughters will come of age, and for that we are grateful to her."
10:35
Schecter:
Obama is again hitting McCain on lacking the courage to sit down with our enemies. I love that frame. Because it is TRUE. And it is what we should have been saying for a while. It is the cowards who resort to violence immediately. They don't have the guts to work things out in a complicated world, instead of bombing people on false evidence....
10:36
That was a HUGE speech. I haven't seen that much energy from the Senator in months. That's not to say his speeches have been weaker, but this one was particularly strong in terms of his delivery.
10:42
CNN's John King just used his magic-marker fingers to draw what appeared to be a large bowel across "rural" Kentucky. That's about right.
10:55
Is it me or is Begala sounding more and more like Lionel Hutz? Speaking of The Simpsons, if you're planning on selling a monorail to a small rural town, check out the exit polls and find the towns that believe the Manchurian e-mails. Monorail... Monorail... Monorail...
11:03
Results coming in from Oregon. 11% reporting. Senator Obama leading with more than 60 percent in the counties surrounding Eugene and Portland. However, there don't appear to be many racists there so, naturally, these results don't matter.
11:09
MATTHEWS: "There's a problem here for Barack Obama... the Appalachian whites... He didn't even try to reach them..." RUSSERT REPLIES: "They were reachable in Oregon and Wisconsin...." Huh-what-now? Appalachian voters from Oregon? That's crazy! Appalachia is more enormous than I thought! But to Matthews' point -- yes, why can't Senator Obama reach the racist white hillbillies? What's Obama's problem!?
11:17
No exit poll news yet on Oregon's all-important Roloff vote.
11:20
29% reporting
Obama 60
Clinton 40
Also, on CNN, Gergen wondering why Senator Clinton hasn't told her voters (paraphrasing): if you're voting for me because you won't vote for a black candidate, I don't want your vote.
11:26
Chuck Todd: 115 of the 212 remaining undeclared superdelegates are from states that went for Senator Obama.
11:35
Schecter notes: "Rudy Giuliani got 1.5% of the vote [in Kentucky] and he has been out of this race since his old combover went out of style." Why can't Senator McCain win over all of Giuliani's voters? What's his problem?
11:48
Norah's exit polling... In 2004 32 percent of Kentucky Democrats voted for President Bush. The exact same number said they'd vote for Senator McCain over Senator Obama.
11:50
Video flashback to last week. The crossover rural white Democratic voter:
I'm selling Janice a monorail.
11:51
That's all for me tonight. Three more primaries to go. Speaking of which, I have two requests... Can we stop calling them "contests"? They're primaries and caucuses, and they're supposed to be important electoral events. A "contest", on the other hand, involves throwing a baseball at a clown in a dunk tank -- or betting your friends that you can go the longest without masturbating. Second request: now that the primary season is nearing a conclusion, can we stop calling the candidates "Barack" and "Hillary"? I don't hear anyone calling Senator McCain "John."
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Let's give it up for Cesca, people. He did it again!
And I am tired of hearing how freaken tough Hillary is! How freaken tough can you be if you start out with every conceivable advantage and you get beat by the newcomer - a young, black man with the name of Barack Hussein Obama. Gimme a freaken break. Obama is the tough one. He came in against all odds and have won every objective metric.
Boy do you have that right. It's incredible what Obama has accomplished. This crap that Hillary was held back by the Press or that he has some advantage because he is black is simply absurd. Barack took on the strongest pre-nomination candidate in years, who had all the organization, all of the woman, most of the African American vote, latino's, etc. and more money than anyone else. She was just beat bad and while she might have been able to beat McBush, there is no better proof of a candidate's strength than how they run their campaign through the primary. Obama is the Man! And when McBush doesn't even know the leader of Iran is and he has dealings with Russian thugs lie Oleg Deripaska- private meetings in March, 2006 go for it MSM- McCain may be in big trouble.
But America did elect George Bush twice and one has to wonder just how smart America really is; or are we as stupid as the some say by repeatedly sending the same old group of people back to Washington where they screw things up.
You are dead wrong. Men, even black ones, trump women, even white ones. Sorry, but you are not seeing the substance here. I'm a white middle aged male republican. I'm upset at the treatment of women in this contest, even if it is a Clinton. I'm going to vote for McCain, and I'm really glad to see Hillary out of the race. She's stronger than Obama and is definitely politically more astute. She's been vetted, he hasn't. He will be much easier to beat in November. You guys on the left have missed the boat again. You let your ideals get in the way of practical reality. I really fell sory for you.
I don't understand how you can say she has been vetted? Have you googled her? How about the time she hid records and then wrote an opinion about the lack of a precedent for providing Nixon council. And what about the Rose law firm? I mean the list goes on and on. The replublicans know this. Tha's why they wanted her to be the nominee...
Yes, that makes sense because things are going so well. When you're in the booth, think about womens rights, gas, foreclosure, and the 100 years of war McSame is offering you. Your great grandkids won't be able to pay off the debt of the worst candidate in history.
He asked her, Bob! Did you hear it?
MSNBC just must get rid of Pat Buchannan. I just cannot take him anymore. Just as I just cannot take Hillary Clinton anymore. I didn't watch her speech and I am turning the channel when Buchannan comes on. How dishonest and disgusting is it for The Clintons to continue to count popular votes when they KNOW that Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and that they are deliberately leaving out caucus States. BTW, how many States have Obama won by 30 or more points? I just cannot stand these talking heads going on and on about what Obama needs to do when Clinton has not won a single State other than those she was predicted to win at the start of the primary season. The election was won in March! This is just garbage time.
I must agree with you -- especially on the Pat Buchannan issue. I turn the channel when he is on and have sent an email to MSNBC to protest. Let's see....Rac
The talking heads are just trying fill up air time. I suspect part of the reason BO didn't do a lot of campaigning in WV/KY is because the polling numbers have remained static for the past 3-4 weeks. In other words, Hillary had it sewed up ... why waist the time and money? Not to mention that both of those states generally vote GOP.
Another "free speech" liberal, I see.
I agree on Pat, I turn his butt off everytime he comes on screen.
Why is he there??
What's really sad is Hillary Clinton's attempt to somehow reshape the results of this entire primary as if she is more "electable
If she is more electable, why did she lose?
Here is what stuck out to me the most in her speech...
"I will support the nominee whoever "she" may be!"
****What if Barack said: "I will support the nominee whoever the African American Male" is!"
Hillary's supporters would be screaming SEXISM!! Why is she not being called out on that?
"I want to thank all the women that supported me."
*****What if Barack said: "I want to thank all the BLACK people that supported me."
Hillary's supporters would be saying he is using the race card.
The problem is that Hillary has been the one injecting race, and gender biasis in this race the whole time. And yet she has manipulated the media and these pms'd women to think that she is a victim.
She is getting over on people and I can't believe that she is getting away with it!!! Why won't someone call her out on this???
I think her "craziness" scares people... at various times in this campain she has gone all out nuts..and yet everyone just kinda put up with it because the Clinton's intimidate the media and the craziness is good for ratings...
How about G Ferraro comments this week...mor
I think the Clintons are so loved within parts of the democratic party that she gets away with A LOT. But in a general election, most people would not put up with it and McCain would beat her among white males by a landslide.
Have ya ever noticed that every Tuesday night, Pat Buchanan squeaks up about every state being a swing state? When did Kentucky become a swing state?
Woohoo! KO just mentioned the wide margins of defeat that McCain suffered in some of the Republican primaries! I wonder if any of those were swing states.
What are the superdelegates waiting for??? If Obama doesn't get the 50 or so Supers he needs to clinch this whole thing by the end of this week, Clinton will take this to the convention
I suspect some are waiting 'til the 3rd, so as not to aggravate the voters.
And PR has no say in the GE. None.
And ask Al Gore if the popular vote counts.
I so agree with you but I fear the media narrative will be very destructive to Obama's ability to "get on with it" - and Clinton knows this. And, it's amazing how people who don't follow this closely will suddenly pay attention to a headline that says "Clinton gets the popular vote but loses the nomination
they aren't "white working class" --they are white, illiterate, redneck, racist, GOP democrats who, although registered as democrats, get all their info from bill o'rielly, sean hannity and rush limbaugh.
we've got to hear how 90,000 (for those of you jumping out of your skin right now they turned 15,000 away) people showing up in oregon doesn't really matter because oregon's the most liberal state in the nation. so i just thought i'd return the favor since no one else will come out and say it.
we'll take colorado, VA, NC, SC and montana . . . we don't need WV and KY -- obama is the strongest candidate for the fall because he did not vote for the war and can surgically remove the neo-con propaganda argument.
And he doesn't lie and isn't owned by lobbyists.
Who ARE these people who want more of the same?
...no wonder you support someone who looks down on people who cling to God, guns, religion..
What a xenophobe you are! You are the epitome of liberal hypocrisy. You knock Republicans for making the same nit-witted statements you make, and you're not interested in anyone's opinion but your own.
Ok when it's all said and done Hillary doesn't have the popular vote. Even if they think Ky gave her the populazr vote watch out for Oregon because she's going to lose. Obama Supporters must keep the faith.
I hope Hillary's going to fight for the rights of Puerto Rico when it comes to November. I'm drawing a blank on the Senator from PR, someone know?
Is Hillary promising them statehood? Isn't it a slap in the face to be able to vote in the primary but not in the general?
I don't think she's promising statehood, but I'd like to know what per pupil spending is in the public schools there?
Are there town halls?
I hope Matthews and Andrea Mitchell use an SPF of maybe, 600.
Can you hear ol Patti Buchanan, live on the beach, talking about the swing, umm, it's not a state and it will never count.
I do want to know if they town halls though.
Puerto Rico voted in '93 & '98 on statehood. The measure failed to pass both times.
I don't think that Clinton can promise them anything. PR did not want to be the 51st state because they did not want to pay federal tax. They voted on it and decided to be independent.
PR will NOT count in November so why even go there. She could win by $1M votes in PR and that should not sway the SD because their vote really don't count in November.
Does anyone have a cogent theory to explain why Clinton surrogates can repeat nonsense like "more popular votes" without being challenged?
I cannot watch TV any more--it's too infuriating.
Other than "corporate media" suggestions--is it possibe that the entrenched newsmen (and women) like Wolf Blitzer, for example, have established pipelines to the Clinton machine dating back to the 90's and simply do not want to have to establish new sources and so are afraid to antagonize these surrogates?
Or, if this doesn't make sense, what does?
If a guest declared the earth flat, do we have to wait for the same old talking heads to debate the remark "right after the break"?
I think HRC is counting MSNBC and CNN as delegates. They could have been caucus votes, but I think the deadline for those is 6 pm. In 1996.
Just watch BBC.
This is too funny, Halo!
Chris Matthews just agreed that Hillary won the most popular votes. Russert references this claim, but doesn't dispute it.
What the #%*&?
cj, he added "by her math" (by not counting any votes for Obama from Michigan, etc) which we all know is rather fuzzy.
I stand corrected. Thanks.
Russert brought it up as problematic.
Are you sure that's Mark Castellanos? Looks a lot like Joe DeGenova..
correction - meant Alex, not Mark. I've obviously been sheltered from this man.
Zobambies musta fled Ky.
They're all on the left coast!
"You'll know they're near when you start to get that tingle go up your leg."
Someone in a post said they were both embarrassed for Hillary and terrified of her. I feel the same way. We know she has no compunctions against hurting the party if it stands in the way of her win, so yes, she is terrifying because there seems to be no limit to what she'll do, and harming Democrats as a party on the way is small change.
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