THE BLOG

Dr Bob Monday Night Analysis

09/27/2010 01:05 am ET | Updated May 25, 2011

I don't have a Best Bet on tonight's game, but I do have a solid opinion on the Bears-Packers game and my NFL analysis is 12-2 against the spread this week (with one game I had no lean on). Most of that analysis is still posted in the Free Analysis section of my website if you want to read it.

I post analysis of about 50 College and NFL games on my site for free each week, in addition to selling my Best Bets (67% in college so far and just 2-3 in the NFL) .

Hopefully my analysis on this game will be as good as the rest of this week's analysis was.

CHICAGO 23 Green Bay (-3) 21
Mike Martz has struck again. Martz has improved offenses wherever he's gone, starting as the offensive coordinator for the Rams during their Super Bowl years and then moving on to Detroit, where the Lions had a much better offense after he arrived. Martz moved on to San Francisco and the Niners were much better in his year there than they were before or after he left. Martz is now in Chicago and the Bears have exploded for 316 passing yards per game at 9.2 yards per pass play and 6.7 yards per play in their first two games. They averaged 6.7 yppl against a bad Lions' defense and then averaged 6.8 yppl last week against a good Cowboys' defense. The Bears' new offense will get another test tonight against a good Packers' stop unit that's allowed just 4.4 yppl in their first two games (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). I don't expect the Bears to continue to average 9.2 yards per pass play, but quarterback Jay Cutler had a couple of very good seasons (7.0 yppp) with Denver before last year's poor season in Chicago - so he's certainly capable of averaging 7.5 yppp in a Martz offense.

Green Bay has a good offense too, although the rushing attack is hurt by the loss of RB Ryan Grant, but Chicago has allowed just 4.6 yppl in their first two games and should slow down Aaron Rodgers and company. My ratings pick this game even and the Bears apply to a solid 79-31-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. I'll call for the upset and take the Bears plus the points.

I post my free analysis of about 40 College games each week on Thursdays after 3 pm Pacific and my NFL free analysis is posted on Fridays after 10 am Pacific in the Free Analysis section of my website.