Dr. Bob Saturday Best Bet

10/09/2010 02:50 am ET | Updated May 25, 2011

I'm now 12-5-1 on my College Best Bets for the season and I have 8 College Best Bets for Saturday at, including my first two 4-Star Best Bets of the season. I also have Free Analysis on 39 College and 10 NFL games.

Here is one of my 8 Best Bets for Saturday.

**San Jose State (+39) 16 NEVADA 45
Nevada is an explosive team that is capable of putting up a lot of points, but this line is simply too high. San Jose State has already played 3 road games against very good teams -- Alabama, Wisconsin, and Utah -- and the Spartans lost those games by an average of 37 points. No offense to Nevada, but they're not as good as any of those 3 teams, so asking them to win by 40 points is a stretch. In fact, Nevada is 5.5 points worse than the average rating of Alabama, Wisconsin, and Utah, which would result in a 31.5 point win if San Jose State plays as they did in those 3 games. Using all games for both teams, my math model favors Nevada by just 31 points while another mathematical methods comes up with 32 points -- so 31 ½ points appears to be a reasonable spread for this game.

Nevada is averaging 44.6 points per game against a schedule of teams that combine to be 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively and San Jose State is only 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively, too (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Tthus, it's reasonable to project around 45 points for the Wolf Pack in this game. San Jose State's offense has had some trouble scoring points (just 9.8 points per game), but they're not too horrible moving the ball (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and Nevada is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl), so the Spartans' offense is just barely worse than the Nevada defense and should score more than enough to cover such a big number. In addition to the line value, Nevada applies to a negative 48-102-2 ATS situation that plays against unbeaten favorites this time of the year. I realize that Nevada has a good history as a home favorite under coach Chris Ault (20-5 ATS), but they're just 3-4 ATS as a home favorite of 17 points or more, so covering huge numbers is not part of that great overall trend.

San Jose State quarterback Jordan La Secla may miss this game with a rib injury, but backup Matt Faulkner actually played much better than La Secla last week (5 for 7 for 63 yards) and his compensated numbers on 17 pass plays this season is only 0.3 yards per pass play worse than La Secla, which would account for less than 1 point if he continues to play at that level. With the good line value and the favorable situation. I'll take San Jose State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +37 points or more.

I have free analysis of 10 NFL games and 39 College games this weekend in the Free Analysis section of my website.