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Bob Stoll

Bob Stoll

Posted: October 22, 2010 07:23 PM

Dr. Bob Saturday Best Bet

What's Your Reaction:

I'm now 25-16-1 on my College Best Bets for the season for a nice profit and I have 10 Best Bets this weekend, including Best Bets on some big games (Wisconsin at Iowa and Oklahoma at Missouri). You can get information about my weekly Best Bets at drbobsports.com. I also have free analysis on 37 College games and 9 NFL games (NFL free analysis is an incredible 43-15-1 so far this year) in my Free Analysis Section.

Here's one of my Best Bets for Saturday:

***San Diego State (-23 ½) 45 NEW MEXICO 10
Let's see. New Mexico has lost their 6 games by an average margin of 34 points while playing a schedule of teams that is 3.5 points easier than average. San Diego State is no doubt a better than average team and they've out-scored their 5 Division 1A foes by an average of 10 points while playing a schedule that is 2.2 points easier than average. How can a team losing by an average of 34 points to an easier than average schedule be only a 23 ½ point dog to a team that is about a touchdown better than an average team. The home field advantage is worth about 4 points and perhaps San Diego State will let up when they have a 35 point lead, but a prediction of Aztecs by 40 points is reasonable. In fact, my math model, which doesn't use scores at all, would call for San Diego State to win by 41 points if both teams play at the level that they've played so far this season.

New Mexico's pathetic offense has averaged just 3.9 yppl and 12.5 points per game despite facing teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. San Diego State has a better than average defense that yielded 5.0 yppl and 20.8 points allowed to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl and 21.7 points against an average defense. The Aztecs also have a great defensive coordinator in Rocky Long that would love to stick it to a New Mexico program that forced him out a couple of years ago after a long tenure as a successful Lobos' head coach doing the most with limited talent. If New Mexico is only averaging 12.5 points against a worse than average schedule, they probably won't reach that number against a better than average defense with a motivated coordinator dialing up the blitzes.

Even if New Mexico gets to their average of 13 points I still don't see how the Lobos can cover the spread in this game given that their defense has given up 46.5 points per game to a schedule of teams that combine to be average collectively. San Diego State has a balanced and potent attack that has averaged 7.0 yards per play against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. New Mexico has given up 38 points or more to every team except a pathetic New Mexico State offense playing backup quarterbacks and the Lobos gave up 52 points or more to all 3 average or better offensive teams that they've faced (72 to Oregon, 52 to a barely better than average Texas Tech offense, and 56 points to Utah). All San Diego State is going to need to cover in this game is probably 38 points and the Aztecs have scored 41 points or more in all 3 games they've played against worse than average defensive teams (Nicholls State, New Mexico State, and Utah State).

I just don't see how San Diego State won't score at least 40 points and I don't see New Mexico scoring more than 14 points unless turnovers play a major role against us. I'll take San Diego State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -27 points.

 

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