Has Israel Become Dependent on Terrorism?

It is a sickening thought. It is one that many in Israel have had to live with for months. One they have kept inside, silenced, some for reasons of guilt, others out of sympathy, superstition, or denial:

Despite everything, despite international denunciation unprecedented even by the standards of past Israeli operations, despite mind-reeling devastation of residential areas and unconscionable loss of life among Palestinian civilians, could the winter invasion of Gaza have actually been a success?

The suggestion was put forward this week in a Washington Post opinion piece headlined "Israel's Gaza Vindication." The Monday column was written by Jackson Diehl, who covered the first intifada as the paper's Jerusalem bureau chief, and who early in the Gaza war had called Cast Lead "Olmert's final failure."

Diehl noted that while a number of Israel's stated -- and patently unrealizable -- aims for the war went unaddressed, two crucial elements of the postwar reality were cause for distinct Israeli satisfaction: a precipitous drop in Palestinian rocket launchings against the Negev, and a considerable rise in the strength of Hamas blood rival, Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

Israel's defeat in Gaza has widely been portrayed as a foregone conclusion. During the war, Time magazine's cover was headlined "Why Israel can't win." An accompanying article asked darkly "Can Israel survive its assault on Gaza?"

Diehl's article argues that Israel has done far more. "The point," he writes, "is that Israel has bought itself a stretch of relative peace with Hamas, just as its costly 2006 invasion of Lebanon has produced three years of quiet on that front. From the Israeli perspective, a respite from conflict is the most that can be expected from either group -- or from their mutual sponsor, Iran."

The idea that the very brutality of these wars is what caused them to succeed, raises a number of extremely uncomfortable questions for Israelis. There is little question that a intentionally ferocious military offensive was the object of Israeli strategic planners, even if real efforts were made to reduce civilian casualties.

Is this the meaning of victory here? Is resort to extreme force the only way to defend Israeli civilians against rocket attacks north and south? If this is how you win, what does this say about us, and our future? What does this say about the enemies we face, and the viability, durability and credibility of any peace agreements forged between the sides?

Was it, in fact, the bludgeon of overwhelming military force that has kept the borders quiet north and south? If not, one must ask, why else have the rockets stopped? What else has changed? Not occupation, not settlement activity, certainly not Palestinian affection for Israel as a neighbor.

The issue, at a time of relative quiet vis a vis armed Palestinian groups, raises other questions as well. To what extent has terrorism itself proven a failure, has it begun dying out, and if it is, will Israel be capable of an appropriate response?

Earlier this month, a number of analysts marked the eight anniversary of the 9/11 attacks with assessments that Al-Qaida was in decided retreat. Time ran headlined a story by Tony Karon headlined "Why Osama Bin Laden failed." The Guardian, meanwhile, reported that Al-Qaida faced a recruitment crisis.

Perhaps most significantly, a recent Pew Global Attitudes poll found "Support for suicide bombing in freefall among Muslim publics."

Of the nine Muslim publics polled, support for suicide bombings was far the strongest among Palestinians, with 68 percent calling it often or sometimes justified [a decline of only two percentage points in the last two years], and only 17 percent ruling out bombings altogether.

Yet the fact remains that Palestinian terrorism, whether borne by Qassam or suicide bomber, has decreased dramatically.

At the same time, terrorism, whether real or not, remains central to Israel's explanations of many of the most morally problematic of its policies, including the siege of Gaza and restrictions on the movements and commerce of Palestinians in the West Bank.

For the right, the specter of terrorism has become the primary, at times, the only argument against territorial compromise in the West Bank.

So reliant has Israel become on terrorism as the underpinning of its policies, it remains to be seen if its reflex dependency on Palestinian violence can be replaced by a world view appropriate to a Holy Land uncontaminated by terrorism.

May this be a year in which we have a chance to find out. May this be a year in which Palestinians have the steadfastness and the strength and the shrewdness to resist the temptation to launch attacks, and may Israel have the might and the wisdom and the ability to change course, to keep from launching military adventures when the other side is, for whatever reason, holding its fire.

 

Follow Bradley Burston on Twitter: www.twitter.com/bradleyburston

Comments

[Sharmine]

I think you may find that the reason there has been a significant reduction in Lebanese-Israeli violence since 2006 and Gazan-Israeli violence since early 2009 is because Israel has not initiated much military action. I understand the author's premise, but think he is looking at this the wrong way. Without going into much detail, let me just post the following study by MIT researcher Nancy Kanwisher published right here on the HuffPost: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nancy-kanwisher/reigniting-violence-how-d_b_155611.html

In her study, which examines Israeli-Palestinian ceasefires since 2000, and looks to determine which side reignited conflict, she found that 100% of the time, after a lull in violence that lasted 9 days or more, Israel unilaterally initiated hostilities.

So for those who think that Hamas and Hezbollah "learned a lesson" through Israeli attacks on both entities, I would argue that in fact, they were never the problem in escalating conflict. Looks like the secret to enduring ceasefires may be for Israel to reign in its appetite for battle.

[myopinion2]

I hope everyone read through to the last paragraph of the blog. Human nature being what it is, sometimes a war becomes the event which changes dynamics and allows for the emergence of peace. I join Mr Burston in hoping that Israelis, Palestinians and all of us be blessed this year by the absence of military action by both Palestinians and Israelis, the growth of trust and respect between the respective people and governments, and the willingness by all to compromise and take a risk in the pursuit of peace, Placing blame is a dead-end exercise. May all efforts be aimed at the continued removal of Israeli checkpoints, the continued efficiency and professionalism of the new Palestinian security forces, a mutual recognition of the Palestinian right to an independent state on the West Bank and a Jewish right to sovereigny in Israel, and a willingness to find a way to share East jerusalem.

Peace Shalom Salaam

May all be inscribed for a year of health and happiness

[MosheDayanHero]

I support the positive note of your post. The current calm was assured for both Palestinian and Israelis by the defeat of Hamas. And willingness of some Palestinians and Israelis to work towards -reconciliation.

[Fireslayer]

Yes. Israel depends on the cardboard view of Palestinians as Hamas terrorists. Even as Hamas offers recognition to Israel in return for going back to the 67 borders- dutifully unreported by the Huff.

[courtb]

It's definitely an interesting thought. During times of relative quiet on the terrorism front, problems within the state of Israel seem to grow. I've always wondered if the Palestinians quit trying to destroy Israel...i­f it would happen from within?

[MosheDayanHero]

Keep waiting and dreaming. Arabs are good at this.
Meanwhile Israel is getting more advanced, prosperous and populous.

[courtb]

What is this "waiting and dreaming" bit? I'm a Zionist and a pretty big one at that. I'm just also a realist who seems the growing divide between the ultra-Orthodox and the non-Orthodox Jews in Israel as something that will become a huge problem when there is peace between Israel and her neighbors.

[MosheDayanHero]

Hamas is a terrorist organization. This is a fact is recognized by many states.
1.It is a fact that many Arab states wanted this indeed helped Israel to take Hamas down.
Especially Egypt, Morocco, EAU, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
2.It is a fact that many Palestinains facilitated Israel war with Hamas,
3.It is a fact that Hamas egged on by the masters in Iran wanted to take on IDF on the ground thinking it can win.
4. It is a fact that U.S. and other Western countries alos facilitated this conflict.
Well.... job done. Rockets stopped, statements out of Hamas are lot more humble now and they're even went back to talk with Egyptians.
But now suddenly everyone pretends they had nothing to do with it.
Sigh..... Middle East.

P.S. Too bad some civilians paid the price becuase Hamas chose to hide behind women and children. And only Hamas knows how many people they lost. But they're not taking. And No U/N comission gained access to their secret army hospitals.

[lungfish]

Our American friends offer us money, arms, and advice. We take the money, we take the arms, and we decline the advice.
Moshe Dayan

[MosheDayanHero]

Moshe Dayan defeated Egyptian armies four times in a row. With prejudice.
And at the end, Dayan was instrumental in making peace with Egypt.
Native Israeli. Military genius Peace maker. Hero.

[mommamia526]

Yeah! And the Palestinians?

[Freenation]

spin is on...

[phute]

You say facts - the truth indicates pathetic propoganda.

[MosheDayanHero]

Easy to post a snark. But obviously you found it impossible to counter my arguments.
Thus rre-enforcing the veracity of my points.

[altohone]

Hmmm.

I seem to recall that before the latest round of civil war, there had been a cease fire in place.
(Including Hamas, but not observed by all unfortunately).
Kind of destroys the theory, no?

The very notion that brutality has served the interest of Israel is abhorrent.
The idea that a "victory" was eked out from a certain point of view sickening.

Terrorism has been used to justify many things, but brutality bordering on war crimes or crossing that line altogether can't be one of them.

If Israeli policy requires violence, it seems the actions taken in Gaza may have been designed to incite more of it, in order to continue such policies.
I hope your theory is bunk.

[MosheDayanHero]

Hamas was defeated. Many Arabs states are happy. Palestinian Authority is happy. Israel is happy.
This is called realpolitik.
Unfortunately, in the Middle East Rulers only respect naked power. Nothing else.
Case in point Lebanon. After Palestinian facilitated b civil war, Lebanon has been invaded by Syria, Israel, Iran and whoever else that i sin the neighborhood.
Case in point:The only reason Jordan exists is because they defeated Palestinian terrorists and repulsed Syrian aggression with help from US and Israel.

Reality in ME is a LOT more complex and savage than you can ever imagine.
The self-absorbed sloganeering one reads has little to do with reality on the ground in that awful corner of the world.

[GZLives]

For those who are always quoting the Israeli versus Palestinian body count to prove something - the Jordanians - according to the Palestinians - killed 10,000 Palestinians in eleven days in September 1970 (Black September).
According to the Jordanians the number of Palestinians killed was about 3400.

[altohone]

You may want to quote where you're getting some of your "facts".

Thanks for the lecture about complexity.
How about commenting on what I wrote instead?

[renatam]

Yes.