Election Data: Military Communities Shift Democratic in 2008

For the past week, people have been coming to me asking if I had any data on the 2008 military vote. The questions were typical: Did the myth of overwhelming military support for Republicans bear out? Did Obama change that? Just who, exactly, do military communities support? And to what extent?

Unfortunately, I hadn't really come up with much until today. But now, using general election data provided by the New York Times, I was able to determine that the military communities most affected by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan shifted significantly toward Barack Obama and the Democratic Party in 2008 when compared to the numbers from 2004.

Here's how I did it: The New York Times put together a set of graphics that showed every county in the United States. Each county was color-coded to reveal the shift in that county's vote--whether it went more Republican or more Democratic--from 2004 to 2008. They were done according to percentage changes, and shades of red symbolized movement toward McCain and the Republicans, while shades of blue represented a shift toward Obama and the Democrats.

After examining the New York Times data, I consulted the Los Angeles Times graphic that shows for whom each county in America voted--Obama or McCain.

With that information, I identified the county's across the country that contain military bases housing America's primary Army and Marine Corps ground combat forces--the very forces responsible for most of the fighting.

What I found was striking, though not all that surprising: Of the 15 military communities I looked at, 11 shifted toward the Democrats and Barack Obama, two had insufficient data to make a determination, and only two shifted toward John McCain and the Republicans.

That said, despite the overwhelming gains made by Obama and the Democrats, the Republican Party in some of these communities still enjoyed enough support to put McCain over the top in eight of the 15 communities. Six of the 15 military communities ultimately voted for Obama, and one community split its two counties between McCain and Obama. Here are the results:

Military Base: Camp Pendleton
Service: Marine Corps
County: San Diego
State: California
Major Combat Unit: 1st Marine Division

Shift from 2004: 10-20%
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: Barack Obama

Military Base: Camp LeJeune
Service: Marine Corps
County: Onslow
State: North Carolina
Major Combat Unit: 2nd Marine Division

Shift from 2004: 10-20%
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Fort Benning
Service: Army
County: Muscogee
State: Georgia
Major Combat Units: 3rd Infantry Division, 3rd Ranger Battalion

Shift from 2004: 10-20%
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: Barack Obama

Military Base: Fort Bragg
Service: Army
County: Cumberland
State: North Carolina
Major Combat Units: 82nd Airborne Division, 3rd Special Forces Group, 7th Special Forces Group

Shift from 2004: 20%+
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: Barack Obama

Military Base: Fort Campbell
Service: Army
Counties: Christian and Montgomery
State: Kentucky and Tennessee
Major Combat Units: 101st Airborne Division, 5th Special Forces Group

Shift from 2004: 5-10% (KY) 10-20% (TN)
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Fort Carson
Service: Army
County: El Paso
State: Colorado
Major Combat Units: 4th Infantry Division, 10th Special Forces Group

Shift from 2004: 10-20%
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Fort Drum
Service: Army
County: Jefferson
State: New York
Major Combat Unit: 10th Mountain Division

Shift from 2004: 0-5%
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Fort Hood
Service: Army
County: Bell
State: Texas
Major Combat Units: 4th Infantry Division, 1st Cavalry Division, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment

Shift from 2004: 20%+
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Fort Lewis
Service: Army
County: Pierce
State: Washington
Major Combat Units: 2nd Infantry Division, 2nd Ranger Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group

Shift from 2004: Insufficient Data
Shift in Favor of: Insufficient Data

Elected: Barack Obama

Military Base: Fort Polk
Service: Army
Parish: Vernon
State: Louisiana
Major Combat Unit: 10th Mountain Division

Shift from 2004: 5-10%
Shift in Favor of: Republicans/McCain

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Fort Richardson
Service: Army
County: Anchorage
State: Alaska
Major Combat Unit: 25th Infantry Division

Shift from 2004: 10-20%
Shift in Favor of: Republicans/McCain

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Fort Riley
Service: Army
Counties: Geary and Riley
State: Kansas
Major Combat Unit: 1st Infantry Division

Shift from 2004: 10-20% (both)
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Fort Stewart
Service: Army
Counties: Liberty and Bryan
State: Georgia
Major Combat Units: 3rd Infantry Division, 1st Ranger Battalion

Shift from 2004: 20%+ (Liberty County) 10-20% (Bryan County)
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: Obama (Liberty County) McCain (Bryan County)

Military Base: Fort Wainwright
Service: Army
County: Fairbanks North Star Borough
State: Alaska
Major Combat Unit: 25th Infantry Division

Shift from 2004: Insufficient data
Shift in Favor of: Insufficient data

Elected: John McCain

Military Base: Schofield Barracks
Service: Army
County: Honolulu
State: Hawaii
Major Combat Unit: 25th Infantry Division

Shift from 2004: 20%+
Shift in Favor of: Democrats/Obama

Elected: Barack Obama

While this is certainly no academic study, we can still learn a lot from it. First, however, it should be noted that no conclusions can be derived from this data to support the idea that military communities are either conservative or liberal. What the data does show is that, in 2008, the communities most affected by repeated deployments of ground combat units overwhelmingly shifted their votes in favor of Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. Of the two that shifted toward John McCain and the Republicans, one of them--Fort Richardson--is located only a few miles from Sarah Palin's hometown of Wasilla, Alaska.

It's also worth pointing out that six and a half of the 15 communities experiencing significant shifts toward Obama still voted for McCain. To me, this comes across as some serious anger. We're talking about communities that were obviously deeply conservative in 2004--like Fort Hood, TX and Fort Stewart, GA--which were able to shift more than 20 percentage points in favor of Barack Obama in 2008, and still lose to McCain in the end.

With these numbers, there can be no doubt that the military communities that have paid the most in time and lives lost over the past seven years have moved considerably away from both Bush policies and McCain's attempts to extend them. While Republican support is still strong in these communities, the election of 2008 demonstrates that without comprehensive changes in the way the military is utilized by the government, that support is on a trend to evaporate. Combat-experienced military communities sent a message in 2008: Keep the year-long deployments going, keep the bellicose rhetoric up, and you will lose elections to Democrats.

Another way to look at this is that military communities like George W. Bush more than they like John McCain. And that's bad.

I also find it slightly amusing to consider, then, that John McCain ran his entire campaign on the "success" of the "surge" in Iraq--a "fact" that meant we were "winning." And yet the military communities to whom he was directly speaking moved in the direction of Obama. Talk about out of touch.

UPDATE: It's been brought to my attention that some of these Obama/Democratic counties are quite large--like San Diego and Honolulu--and have much more diverse populations than the others. This, of course, is true and it definitely dilutes the affect of the military communities in those counties. Nevertheless, the fact that counties like Muscogee (Fort Benning, GA) and Cumberland (Fort Bragg, NC)--which are much more homogeneous--both shifted to Obama and elected Obama is quite telling.

Also available at VetVoice

 

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Comments

[Eawest]

I think really the most you could draw from this is that the military spouses in those counties MAY have voted more Democratic. Most service members do vote absentee ballot to their home of record, keeping their parents' address on their Page 2.

The only thing I would criticize this article on is that this is not the military most affected by the wars, it's 2 Marines bases and a handful of Army bases. Those are not the only branches fighting in these wars. Navy personnel are also seeing record deployment times, extensions, and pressure to complete 18-month workups in the shipyard in as fast as a 10 month time frame. Airforce members are regularly being asked to volunteer for security duty for 4 months at a time over there, in addition to their regular 1 year remote deployments.

I would also point out that polls by the branch's enquirers are not the greatest and most unbiased reports out there. Looking at voter turnout in war zones is worthless too because there are often command requirements that people vote. We have an all volunteer military, but once that uniform is on you are property of the U.S. Government. It's really tough for civilians to understand how few rights our service members have and that's why it's very important we elect leaders that will prudently command our troops to prevent loss of all human lives (not just American ones) when not needed.

[Roguewolf]

Sen. John McCain enjoys overwhelming support from the military’s professional core, a Military Times survey of nearly 4,300 readers, indicates, though career-oriented black service members strongly favored the Democratic Party candidate.

McCain, R-Ariz., handily defeated Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., 68 percent to 23 percent in a voluntary survey of 4,293 active-duty, National Guard and reserve subscribers and former subscribers to Army Times, Navy Times, Marine Corps Times and Air Force Times.

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/10/military_poll_100508w/

[firstfreeze]

First of all most active duty folks vote absentee ballot to their original home of record (all over America). Secondly many bases/camps are in small rural towns that are heavily minority and always vote for Democrats. Third, the military is a microcosm of America and just as diverse. No surprise there would be diversity in the vote. Most, if polled, favor keeping Dont ask, Dont Tell the policy. Ask them.

[oldgoose]

Did you take into consideration in your article the actual military population of the bases? Many soldiers either own or rent outside of the base where they serve. On some bases like Ft Bragg and Ft Campbell for exemple entire brigades are in Iraq & Afghanistan. Although they are registered they do not always get their absentee ballot or are in such impossible situations in their overesas locations as not to be able to return them in time. When they do, many times the ballots are not counted. My son stationed in Italy did not get his absentee ballot while his wife did. No explanation received! I voted absentee over many years from Europe and the county I voted in required the adjudant's signature and a unit stamp on my absentee ballot (so much for secret ballot!) .Soldiers in garrison do not have a problem usually but those out in the field for extended periods do not have accessibility. Today many more young soldiers vote than in my time and most are voting democrat!

[dadw5boys]

In Fla. the Republican challenged all votes from one address. Those one addresses were Military Bases. The Mayport Air Station, Ciecl Feild, Jax Naval Air Station, Homestead Air Base, and then the South Carloina Bases.

The Soldiers were not told their voted were challeged. KERRY WON IN 2004 !!!!

[donndublin]

The war has shifted to the homefront.

According to the Obama website," Change.gov, the Obama administration would "require" all middle school through college students to participate in community service programs.
However, after a flurry of bogs protested children being drafted into Obama’s proposed youth corps, officials softened the website's wording.

"Obama will call on citizens of all ages to serve America, by developing a plan to require 50 hours of community service in middle school and high school and 100 hours of community service in college every year,"

A quote from Rahm Emanuel’s book; "The Plan: Big Ideas for America," to specify that he would propose, for all Americans ages 18 to 25, that they "serve their country by going through three months of, civil defense preparation and community service."

Obama, meanwhile, also has yet to clarify what he meant during his July "Call to Service" speech in Colorado Springs in which he insisted the U.S. "cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we've set" and needs a "civilian national security force."

Can you say, SIEG HEIL?

[tomas0808]

Put a cork in it. Norway has mandatory 2 yr national service. This is a GOOD IDEA. Where we went wrong was by starting wars and sending kids off to die for NO REASON other than to sell helicopters (Vietnam) or make a mint for Haliburton (Iraq). If a country has a competent government that can create a country that all people regardless of political leanings can feel proud to be a part of, people will happily do national service.

[Dystopic]

So does Israel (i think it's a 1 year tour). Manadatory military service is a pretty good idea, makes people less likely to vote for a stupid warmonger president if they have an "iron in the fire"

[donndublin]

I suppose you think “NO REASON” being to save Iraqi people from a mad man who gassed his own people and denied women basic rights as well as stop him from producing WMDs which he has tried to do in the past.

Norway also has forces in Afghanistan. Are you going to condemm them too or just the American military?

“all people regardless of political leanings to be a part of”

It took several tries to post this comment. I was denied to post my comment by other bloggers because they won’t tolerate my opinion. So much for your statement.

[glitz]

What this actually proves is "the Military" is as diverse as our country. Another figure to be considered would be the percentage of those able to vote who did. Just how many in the war zones voted? It is extremely complicated to vote while active. Here in Huntsville, Alabama the favor went to Obama. We have a huge veteran's community as well as active duty. But since military demographics are not polled...it is impossible to tell.

[ThirdPartyGal]

The map used for this article is very off the mark and easy to misinterpret. I know this because I have seen the map of the Florida counties and the map in this article shows Blue where it was really red for this election. And way too much blue is put in through most all of middle America and especially along the Mississippi River. The NYT was clearly misleading with this map.

[RockySoldier]

This is no surprise to active soldiers. The media doesn't understand us at all. They have us painted red. We're more blue among the younger-than-40 ranks. Only senior officers remain hard-right red republicans.

[JHawkKC]

Markason -- If I remember correctly it was John McCain that called for the surge long before the surge that has been incredibly successful was implemented. Obama called for cut and run and has been against Military Success in Iraq for quite some time. Competent/­Incompeten­t as that is, what the election really boiled down to is taxes, a Democrat calling for more tax cuts that the republican claiming he will give 95% of all taxpayers tax breaks. When surveyed the majority of the people did not really want to punish Corporations with more taxes but they sure did want health care and tax breaks even tho they do not believe Obama can deliver.

McCains problem was the he was really not a conservative and it cost.

[Shrinath]

Do you have any idea about what is going on in Iraq? Can you comprehend the demography? Surge? Iraq today is a smoldering mess. MSM just parrots what the govt. feeds them. What comes out of the war zone is heavily edited. And as far as calling a surge is concerned. The ground troops are fighting a war so that a few politicians and corporations can become even more rich.
What the election boiled down to is prosperity and peace. Get real.

[Emmory]

Well, we will see how much peace there is in Iraq after we leave.

[markason]

Despite McCain's service in the navy, it's quite possible that military communities recognized greater integrity and leadership abilities in Obama, and preferred that in a Commander-in-Chief. It is easy to see that if McCain conducted military strategy as poorly as he managed his political campaign, the results would be disastrous, while Obama carried out his campaign with the intelligence, focus and diligence of a seasoned general. If you were someone within the military communitity, which candidate would win your vote, the bumbling Republican or the competent Democrat?

[Emmory]

I'd vote for who ever would do the best job.